Jason Ross

Which is a fair point! Please don't add me to the "whining" crowd, as I think I'm pretty level headed. With that said I also think there's something to be said about track record and expectations moving forward. I don't think Kikuchi is a bad pitcher at all. Pretty good, actually! But last year was a high water mark for him, in his age 33 season. Perhaps we're seeing a mid-30's revival, but he's also already on the low end of exit velocity, doesn't miss barrels, gives up hard contact, and doesn't generate a good deal of chase. There's a pretty good chance 34 and 35 year old Kikuchi looks more akin to 2023 and 2022, as well. Which leads me to where my concern is. If the Cubs plan is "trade for a true 4+ win SP and sign a mid-tier guy" then I'm all abord. Good offseason! If the plan for the rotation is a Yusei Kikuchi...then I'll remain fairly underwhelmed with their ambition. Which is where I am at. Which, I do, again, feel is pretty level headed. I'm trying to remain pretty optimistic that the team is aiming for more this offseason. We have seen reports they will be aggressive in trades, so I'm not ignoring that either. Optimism remains. Where the Cubs have an issue is a bit in marketing. I do think there's some upheaval with the ambitions of the team. Rightly so in many ways, IMO. It probably doesn't help much that the team has basically ruled out any big FA of note before FA. Rightly or wrongly, it's probably creating some extra annoyance.

On the pitching front I agree. Seems to be more or less confirming that the Cubs are likely to sit out the Burnes/Fried top of the market type thing in free agency, I think the Hoerner speculation/non-speculation is worth monitoring and the discussion revolving around Bellinger feels a bit "new". My hope is that the FA mid-tier search is as a 2nd piece to a bigger, more aggressive and top-end-starter minded trade. I do have a nagging fear that the will fall into the rut of "we can fix the rotation by signing mid-tier guys and fixing them". But trying to remain on the optimistic side.

Yep! I avoided posting the full source because it's an ESPN+ article and many don't have access to it. I agreed with the Hoerner thing...until the next line. It sounded very speculative, until he said "also available" and transitioned to Bellinger. Had he just moved to the Bellinger thing I'd have 100% agreed, but the use of "also" seemed to indicate the same feeling on Bellinger as they did Hoerner's trade status. But maybe that's just my interpretation.

This comment was directly related to the free agent market. Interesting to see Hoerner's name pop back up as a trade candidate even with the injury. Interestingly, is how he characterized Bellinger. "another Cub available" he said, which made it feel like the Cubs are certainly open to moving him. Cubs were mentioned in the Yusii Kikuchi and Nick Pivetta blurbs of the article (it was an ESPN+ exclusive) but more as a group of other teams who might be in the same market, and less, it felt like, "The Cubs are actively looking at this guy". This has the feeling of a weird offseason build up.

It probably extends past that. It seems as though the Cubs have gotten very good at the transitioning portion of things for Japanese players as well. The soft stuff. Food, catering, the small little every day things. On top of having a pretty good pitching infrastructure. The team has done well with other Japanese pitchers like Shota Imanaga on tweaking his stuff to fit the western game, but also has tweaked and played with other pitchers who found success. Will this be the pitch Roki Sasaki wants to hear? Who knows? But the good news it that it's a pretty multifaceted argument that can be made.

Interesting comment Allen made in a subtweet - apparently he's never even spoken to Sasaki because the team has an "authoritarian" handling when it comes to media. Might be one of these types of things where no one really knows him or what he wants.

Should be noted - the Cubs today hired a Japanese company designed to work with the concept of injury prevention. Does it have anything to do with Sasaki? Probably not. But I think it's important to notice the Cubs and their heavy Japanese investment.

Possibly. But I assume most of the branding deals are through Japanese markets and not necessarily through American markets.

Shaw took part in the Premier 12 Tournament tonight. He finished 4-5 with a 3 run (walk off, mercy rule). He had 7 RBI, a tournament record. Now up to 6-7 and on base eight times.

Free agent after 2026. I doubt he's "just" DHing. There will be injuries and the Cubs will likely rotate the spot some. Do I think Seiya will really care much? Probably not. He seems very easy going.

Ish. Though I don't think money is going to be the factor here. Sasaki will likely easily have tons of branding deals and should be easily marketable. With the lack of real difference in what a team can offer (like $1m or $1.5m extra) it's probably negligible. What will matter here the most is: 1. How he fits into a team 2. How a team will transition him to the MLB game 3. Geography(?) - Though this is an assumption in the past - Japanese players have preferred to live on the West Coast. With that said, just using Chicago as an example, Imanaga seems to adore Chicago and Darvish did too. So maybe it wont matter as much as we speculate.

That doesn't really make much sense, though. His next big contract will be when he hits FA regardless. Look at Juan Soto. Guy is already on the team who is the presumptive favorite to sign him...but he's going to hit the market anyways. Why? That's where the money is. Signing with LAD or NYY now isn't going to change that math. This first contract is about his transition. A team who's able to manage workload, work through some initial tweaks to the western game, and comfortability. He will make hundreds of millions in his next deal as long as these first years go well no matter what. I get that you're downplaying the Cubs as an option here...I'm guessing partially just to not get bummed when he inevitablely doesn't end up here. But the Cubs have had great success with Japanese players in recent years. They stand a real chance if West Coast isn't a must.

While it's hard to bet against the Dodgers with the stars they have and their geographic location...being posted now give the Cubs their best shot here. Money will not be a factor because of the posting rules. Every team is going to be offer the same monetary contract. It puts the Cubs on very equal footing. Cleary, the Cubs have a pathway for pitching success and do well transitioning Japanese players to the MLB. It's not Ohtani and Yamamoto but Imanaga and Suzuki are not nothing and Darvish has always been a champion of the Cubs after being here. Do I expect the Cubs to win this? No. But taking the $200m out of the question, it makes the Cubs one of the best options on the table and probably gives them a real punchers' chance here. Roki Sasaki choosing the North Side probably isn't a very crazy outcome and is realistic.

Based on the usage of "aggressively pursuit" a trade, I like the idea that the Cubs will be on the front foot, and not the back. For the gripes I have with Hoyer, one thing I think he's gotten a pretty clean record on, is when it comes to trades. I'm interested to see what he cooks up when he's truly aggressive on the trade front, and in a situation where we have to assume his job is a bit on the line here. Trading for a controllable player, with $45m or so in the war chest will allow him to basically go in any direction he sees fit. And it won't be really a place where you can hide behind a fear of the future contract (which is where I think a lot of the hesitancy in FA comes from) dragging into a player's twilight years. This kind of feels like "the world is your oyster, Jed" and it'll be interesting to see what a motivated, and well stocked Jed Hoyer does.

Just to clarify, when you say top of the market, are you including FA? Especially this article, it feels very much that we should not expect the Cubs to be in the upper tier in that aspect: no Burnes, and I'm pretty confident no Fried. I suspect, especially with the other article (and this one) where they're talking about their scouting and analytics that if they go FA for a pitcher that the pitcher is going to be someone they can work with and build up. Unless that top of the market is Sasaki, but he's only top of the market talent wise. In terms of cost, he's basically free. I do think they'll go after almost every and all of the best SP's who are available via trade. "Aggressively pursuit" was used by the Athletic boys, and while they rarely let their guard down in terms of very specifics, their veil can be more transparent, IMO, on wording and phrasing. Usually when they say things, it's good stuff to tuck away. So while I think they'll pass on being aggressive on Fried or Burnes, I could see Crotchet or a Mariners SP, or even a SP we don't super expect on the market to be guys they target.

New article in the Athletic today from Sharma and Mooney. Important notes: While I think some/most of this was expected, it's important to note a few things. First, that the Cubs plan is unlikely to change, and maybe ever. If Hoyer's one year remaining isn't an catalyst for change in terms of how he views roster building...this is probably the Jed Hoyer we're going to always see. For better or worse. A few name drops, neither are surprising, in Sasaki and d'Arnaud. Interesting to note Jed was talking up the Cubs' appeal to the Japanese market the other day and then this. It feels like some internal optimism on the Roki Sasaki front is occurring. Why that is, it's up to you. Does sound like the Cubs are looking more at the SP market via trade than in FA. So while we've been connected a handful of times by others (I think, speculatively) to Max Fried, it may just end up that the Cubs stray away from those types more so than we think.

Good to hear the velo bump. He always had a somewhat interesting profile coming out of the draft as someone you could squint and see something there with. Was always a developmental lottery ticket, but he's maintained a level of intrigue under the radar, at least my intrigue, since draft day.

Morosi can be iffy, certainly. I also don't think Jon was just bored yesterday and randomly dropped Owen Caissie as a name. Bruce Levine reported the Cubs and Mariners had some sort of discussion. I would assume that Morosi isn't just making horsefeathers up and that the name Owen Caissie came up in some context. Did the Cubs offer him? Was it a team (or team's) speculation? No clue. I don't think there's anything imminent.

How available Kyle Tucker is this offseason is debatable, but I think there's a good chance he's quite available. A lot of that depends on the Astros, though. If they expect to lose Bregman this year, and expect there's a good chance they lose Tucker next year, they may decide it's best to take a temporary step back in 2025 for a reset and young-player acquisition. In that even, I'd expect Kyle Tucker to be quite available. Ultimately, I think the smoke around the Cubs, and from the Cubs themselves, is that they are pretty set at the position player side of things. Maybe that's a screen, but the Cubs under Hoyer and previously under Theo, rarely screen. They move quietly without many leaks, but rarely smokescreen. I think they probably won't go big on offense, which probably rules out Tucker. Regardless, I wish they'd continue to explore it.

I think there's some of that. I do think the whole "Caissie can't play OF long term" thing gets a little overblown. Even if we look back at the time of the draft, there was belief he could handle CF for a time because he was quite athletic for his size. Looking at reports, it's been pretty positive over the years. He's looked better in routes. He's got a true 60 grade arm...so while I get the fears that he might move off of the OF position, I'm not sure it's as imminent as many make it out to be. I think there's a decent chance he's a viable OF'er through most of his arb years, for example. He's tall but has really yet to become anything near bulky. And the power seems to be coming with swing changes - his ISO, and LA skyrocketed in the 2nd half last year and resulted in the HR power we were kind of waiting on (there was a decline in contact%, but that's another story). I've always been on the high end of the Caissie talk. So I've got some biases here. But I think there's a an OF'er through age 25 or 26 there.

I think we should be looking to move someone for pitching, but I'm not convinced it has to be/should be Caissie, either. I almost think of it as the Cubs kind of need to hitch their wagon to an OF'er and an INF'er moreso than it having to be Caissie. Especially with Bellinger in the fold for the current season, an injury to an OF'er would allow Caissie an immediate path to the MLB because if it's a corner, then he can man-it, or if it's CF, then Bellinger slides over. The same is probably true at 1b, with Bellinger moving there and Caissie to RF/DH. Overall, with Bellinger, Happ, and Suzuki, I think we should expect at least some IL trips. No problem if you're more of an Alcantara guy. Just about the same can be said for him that I did above. Why I think the Cubs kind of need to pick one right now. They need immediate MLB help, and picking one and using the other in a trade is probably the way to go. Can probably run the same conversation for Triantos and Shaw, too.

Its from Jon Morosi. He tweeted it yesterday. It sounds more (from my reading) that teams are interested in Caissie as a return in trade talks. For who? Not sure. How amenable are the Cubs? Unsure.

So, I think the answer is both "I'm not sure?" and "No" but that's because I think there are two competing questions here. First, I don't think this is just AFL helium. Long had a really good season at Double-A once he got promoted. He had a 189 wRC+, showed impressive underlying data on top of the eye popping stats. He's going to be freshly 23 next year, so he's a little on the "older" side (but not "old" - he's just not a baby like Caissie or Ballesteros upon making Iowa), but he's getting better at each level, and not worse. Dude walked more than he struck out, and still had 7 HR's and 9 2b's in 200 PA's in Tennessee. With the EV data you can probably dream on a little more power coming out of the bat. His AFL is just a continuation of Tennessee. He's absolutely locked in right now. And he's probably ticketed for Iowa. I'm excited for that...it'll give me access to Statcast stuff. Matt Mervis looked pretty shiny until you dug into the Statcast stuff and the flaws were pretty apparent. The cool thing with Long is that while he's probably more of a 1b, there's thought that he could handle LF for a while. So I'd keep an eye on that moving forward. As a LF there's more runway for what he can be. As of now, I'm cautiously optimistic. He's not like a top-10 guy in the system. But if you told me he was smashing Iowa with good underlying data in June? I'd probably believe you.

I say this as someone who thinks' Ballesteros has an upward battle to stick behind the plate even in a part time role at the MLB level...but Moises Ballesteros hasn't even turned 21 yet. No, the Cubs don't and can't have a good idea of what he "will or won't" be capable of yet. 20 year olds are not finished products and the Cubs don't own a crystal ball. There are times we know things - like Owen Caissie will not be a not a capable MLB shortstop. But Ballesteros' ability long term behind the plate is very much in the "unknown" category...even to the Cubs.