Jason Ross

That is about the luckiest inning I've ever seen.

Yes. Exactly this. He's had under 30 good PA's with the Cubs. It's been super fun! And I hope he keeps it up. But like...it's a good 30 PA's. The Cubs should make sure they upgrade over him.

He's a free agent at years end. I suspect it's his last year with the Cubs. Another team will probably sign him to some sort of a prove-it MilB camp invite deal in hopes that he "finds it" but yeah, it's looking like the end of the line.

James Triantos hasn't played third base for over a full year because he was really bad at it.

I like Shaw. I like Triantos. This is a horrible idea. The solution to "Parades is in a slump" is almost assuredly not letting Triantos (88 wRC+ in Triple-A) or Matt Shaw (currently hurt), both of whom probably have shown they aren't 3b (Triantos has logged 7 games there since 2022 and Shaw has since moved back to 2b) there at the MLB level. It's more probable that the guy who's had a 124 wRC+ over his last (nearly) 1500 PA's gets it together than either of those rookies do in September in their first go.

I think Caissie is currently working on jumping the power finally. Early in the season, the contact wasn't really an issue. And it really hasn't been in the past. The K's have been, but a lot of that has been hyper-passivity. His contact % through May was almost 72%. But his ISO was .132. We've seen a pretty stark shift over the months. And since the ASB, his c ontact rate has dipped, but his swing% has jumped (5%) and his ISO has skyrocketed to almost .300. His pull rate has increased significantly as well. Over the last two months his FB% has jumped from the low 20's in April/May to well over 35 since July 20th. His LA has jumped 4%, from 12 to over 15%. I think the hope is that as he works through what is clearly a bit of an approach/swing change designed to lift the ball more and pull more. Hopefully we're starting to see "end game" Caissie, who puts together acceptable enough contact rates of around 70% with elite power numbers that his body should be capable of doing, while pulling the baseball more and more.

With no data on LA yet, his swing looks less flat to the eye test than it had gotten at FSU. He had basically fallen into a super flat bat path. Getting that swing tweaked is a big step into getting into the Cam Smith you'd hope he'd become. So that's good to see.

Oh, I don't really agree with what I was saying - more so where I think he's going to rank on industry-wide areas. I think he'll find himself as a top-12 or so prospect in the Cubs system but that many people will be bearish with him overall. Development is anything but linear. Players struggle and grow at different rates and different rates at different levels. But I suspect the industry will remain "lower" on him than more Cub-centric blogs and rankings for the reasons I explained. I like Hernandez I just think writers will be cautious but that it might not mean much.

I think Herz is getting really, really lucky. He's throwing a lot of pitches belt high. And the most frequent zone of strikes is "middle-middle". Regardless of velo, MLB hitters hit mid-mid a ton. His mid-mid wOBA is under .300 but his xwOBA is in the ,330. League mid-mid is a wOBA over .400! 56% of his mid-mid pitches are fastballs. League mid-mid is 38%. Now, Maybe DJ Herz is capable of throwing his fastball mid-mid more than others by a lot and get away with it, but there's not much in his profile to suggest it. Savant has his fastball run value in the 63rd percentile - above average but not something you'd assume to see a .100+ point better-than-league-averageon-mid-mid pitches. Hitters in general have a ,338 wOBA against his fastball, league average on fastballs is .336 - there should be no reason he's so much better when tossing the pitch right down the shoot. The lowest swing% he has in in 0-0 counts and he's throwing more fastballs in that count than any other count that isn't 3-0 and 2-0. He's also below average on mid-mid swings. So what you have is a guy who's throwing a lot of mid-mid fastballs early in the count and hitters who are letting them go. He's getting ahead of hitters because of that. League wide numbers jump significantly if you get ahead 0-1 or your numbers dip significantly if you get behind 1-0. Even when hitters are swinging at his mid-mid stuff he's getting favorable results despite not having a fastball profile that would suggest that to be the case. Eventually, this is going to catch up to DJ Herz. Hitters are going to swing more often early in the count. They'll likely get used to a funky delivery and hit his fastball around league average (the way his total fastball wOBA mirrors league average) in mid-mid situations. When that happens he's going to regress. He'll either start to get tagged or be forced off piping fastballs early in the count which could cause him to go with a former pitch mix that was more conducive to the walk totals rising. Regardless, I don't think this is a pattern for long term success. He's not a dumpster fire of an MLB player, but I think he's going to eventually get found out. When that happens, I think he's going to have to find a new way to get guys out and based on his history of strike throwing, my confidence on that is...iffy at best.

My best guess on the Cristian Hernandez thing is two fold: 1. I think he's always going to carry the weight of "baby-A-Rod" regardless of how much we know these things shouldn't matter. When you set hype at that level, even really smart people can be blinded or let down due to a bias. 2. I think he's going to bear the weight of his slow start to his professional career. Realistically, starting him at Myrtle at 18, the assumption would be 1 year = 1 level up. Being that he's still at South Bend, even though we know development isn't linear, and that he's still young and has plenty of time, I think people are going to remain cautious on their rankings. I'd expect, even this winter, people to be safe with their rankings. It's easier to claim breakout and be hyped about him if he crushes it in 2025 rather than be the guy who boosts him up only for him to struggle based on his past.

He wasn't claimed. So another team will have to sign him, then we will only get a pro-rated league-minimum credit back. I'd guess we don't.

Bringing up Nealy who could end the season in the back-end reliever circle with guys like Porter Hodge and Tyson Miller moving into next year. Good bit of business.

Good to see Brethowr to Myrtle. He got whacked in the head with a pitch. Seems like he's okay.

It's one step at a time for me. They're within a game of .500. Let's get to that watermark first. Then you worry about jumping some of these teams in front of you, like the Giants and the Cardinals. Then you start worrying about the playoffs. This year has been an odd mirror image of last season. Last year it felt like most of the first part of the season, things were going as good as you could have hoped. Players were generally healthy, guys like Bellinger landed on their feet, and come the end of August, the team had a 90% chance to make the playoffs. Bad injury luck, coupled with negative variance and the team fell apart. Maybe this year we continue the inverse; we had the injuries early, the negative variance and the >10% chance of making the playoffs. We're starting to see guys come around. We're getting healthier. Who knows what the rest of the year brings?

Trying to get O'Hoppe was the right move. Bummer they couldn't get that over the line. I'd be surprised if some smoke with that in the winter didn't pop back up, even if just a token reference because the Cubs had previous interest.

As stated, I wasn't saying anything about Robert being cooked or not. The previous poster mentioned they didn't know his injury history exactly. I provided it with context that it *is* a good amount of injuries. Nothing in that post was to be taken further as I was not entering into this debate. Only providing the details someone asked for.

https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/luis-robert-player-injuries His injury history is extensive. I'm not saying he is or isn't toast, but Robert isn't a typical 26-year-old in terms of his injuries. Some of those are more nagging, others are 60-day IL trips, but Robert has a long history.

The trade deadline and the draft tend to grab most of the headlines in July, but that doesn't stop the MiLB side of things from stopping altogether. Which pitcher in the Cubs system stood out in July? Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo The Cubs minor league system has an "offensive" slant; most of the top ten (outside of Jaxon Wiggins) are hitters, and the Cubs spent most of their high-profile draft selections this summer on bats again. There are still a lot of really exciting and fun pitchers in the Cubs' system - many of them saw promotions to new levels in July, making this a strange month for starting pitching across the board as many had up and down months. However, it's important to always look at the forest through the trees. Honorable Mentions: Jaxon Wiggins - 6.59 ERA, 2.74 FIP, 26.7 K%, 11.7 BB%, 13.2 IP The ERA is rough, but Wiggins earned a promotion to South Bend mid-month and remains one of the better prospects in the system. He's learning how to pitch against High-A hitters, but the promotion of a top prospect alone earns an HM from me, regardless of how those starts went. Nazier Mule - 3.00 ERA, 5.40 FIP, 16.7 K%, 16.7 BB%, 11.1 IP Mule is the opposite of Wiggins in that his ERA was great, but his FIP was not. Mule has great stuff, but controlling and commanding it remains an issue, as he struck out 11 in 11 innings pitched but also walked 11. The young pitcher hopes to continue to work on this aspect. Sam Armstrong—4.76 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 21.9 K% 11 BB% 17 IP Armstrong is the latest in a line of late-round finds in the draft. By joining players like BJ Murray, Haydn McGeary, Jonathon Long, and Brett Bateman, who have had success in the minors, Armstrong has already earned his way up to Double-A. While his transition to Double-A hasn't been perfect, getting the jump earns an honorable mention, and I think he'll eventually settle in. 3. Brandon Birdsell - (Double-A & Triple-A) 5.31 ERA, 2.31 FIP, 24.4 K%, 5.6 BB%, 20.1 IP Birdsell also earned a big promotion, moving from Tennessee to Iowa. It was a story of "great" and "rough" for Brandon, as two of his starts he was fantastic (one in Tennessee and another in Iowa) and two that were clearly "learning processes," which gave him a bit of a leg up on someone like Armstrong, who also leveled-up but didn't have the same peaks (or valleys, however) at his new level. If injuries pile up post-deadline, Birdsell could make an appearance or two in Chicago, so keep an eye out on his process. Birdsell is a strike-throwing machine, and if he can keep his velocity in the 92-94 mph range with funky arm action, he could make himself an interesting back-end arm. Regardless of his prospect status, I think he had a pretty decent month. The ERA looks worse than the under-the-hood stuff and, in a month of transition, he deserves to find himself here. 2. Juan Bello - (Low-A) 2.75 ERA, 2.79 FIP, 25 K%, 2.6 BB%, 19.2 IP Juan Bello has come out and had a really solid first year in Myrtle Beach. While not a velo king, Bello uses deception, some funk, and solid pitch ability to get around lower-level pitchers - it's not out of the norm to see him "Nester Cortes" a bit on the mound playing with his delivery. July was the first month all year; however, Bello put this with improved strike throwing and walking just a pair of hitters all month. He's going longer in games (reaching five innings a few times) and looks to be on the cusp of a promotion if this keeps. A cup of coffee in South Bend wouldn't be crazy to see at the end of the year. 1. Connor Noland - (Double-A & Triple-A) 1.82 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 25.5 K%, 5.1 BB%, 24.2 IP As a prospect and a prospect alone, it's hard to gauge where he sits: Noland's velocity sits in the low 90s, topping around 92-93mph, but that's neither here nor there for how well he's done so far since turning pro. Showing improved K% in Triple-A so far while also generating a ton of groundballs, Noland is doing everything he can to make himself a prospect and show evaluators that there is more than fastball velocity. While I think he's probably behind Brandon Birdsell in terms of "right-now" pecking order if an injury were to happen (simply because of track record mount), it's getting neck-and-neck in terms of which lower-velo-strike-thrower the Cubs would turn to if need be. Overall, an awesome month from Connor. View full article

PCA's starting to look more comfortable.

Throwing a lot of strikes and the stuff looks good. Still an issue with swing and miss, though. Obviously in small sample size but his chase% is sitting around 20% or so compared to Triple-A average of 29% or so. In-zone whiff is sitting around 10% compared to league average just under 19%. I'd really like to see those get to at least Triple-A average as I just don't trust numbers that low and fear him getting BABIP'd to death with balls in play. If there's a positive it's that the GB% remains super high, so there's a FIP beater profile in there that could suggest an ability to control the runners more with added ground balls and double play chances. Regardless, not shitting on him, at 27 and with the injuries and the struggles if the Cubs can get anything out of him at this point it's a win and I'd like to get a look at him out of the pen at some point in 2024 to see how it plays at the MLB level.

They don't have a lot of value already and it's unlikely to change much between now and the winter. I think we need to remember; the guys we don't really want, other teams don't really want. We don't really want Mervis or Canario because both are flawed players who probably aren't starting MLB potential if they are even MLB players. Other teams probably value them just the same. You don't get much for that.

First, both have been hurt. Mervis broke a hamate bone and Canario has been out for a bit. Secondly, they probably don't have much value. Everyone has access to Mervis' MLB data and while Canario is interesting enough, the injuries are piling up. Both are types that, at best, you use to buy the exact kinds of players the Cubs said they had little/no-intetest in; expiring contracts of mediocre players. They'd get you more Jose Cuases. We already did that with Nate Pearson. They'll still have some value in the winter. I'm sure they will once again be shopped. But they really don't have a ton of value at the moment.

I like Neely! He's got a weird slider profile; really low RPM's. Creates the gyro motion. Think he's an interesting guy. I think he'll fit in as a solid mid inning guy with some potential setup stuff.