Jason Ross

Free agent after 2026. I doubt he's "just" DHing. There will be injuries and the Cubs will likely rotate the spot some. Do I think Seiya will really care much? Probably not. He seems very easy going.

Ish. Though I don't think money is going to be the factor here. Sasaki will likely easily have tons of branding deals and should be easily marketable. With the lack of real difference in what a team can offer (like $1m or $1.5m extra) it's probably negligible. What will matter here the most is: 1. How he fits into a team 2. How a team will transition him to the MLB game 3. Geography(?) - Though this is an assumption in the past - Japanese players have preferred to live on the West Coast. With that said, just using Chicago as an example, Imanaga seems to adore Chicago and Darvish did too. So maybe it wont matter as much as we speculate.

That doesn't really make much sense, though. His next big contract will be when he hits FA regardless. Look at Juan Soto. Guy is already on the team who is the presumptive favorite to sign him...but he's going to hit the market anyways. Why? That's where the money is. Signing with LAD or NYY now isn't going to change that math. This first contract is about his transition. A team who's able to manage workload, work through some initial tweaks to the western game, and comfortability. He will make hundreds of millions in his next deal as long as these first years go well no matter what. I get that you're downplaying the Cubs as an option here...I'm guessing partially just to not get bummed when he inevitablely doesn't end up here. But the Cubs have had great success with Japanese players in recent years. They stand a real chance if West Coast isn't a must.

While it's hard to bet against the Dodgers with the stars they have and their geographic location...being posted now give the Cubs their best shot here. Money will not be a factor because of the posting rules. Every team is going to be offer the same monetary contract. It puts the Cubs on very equal footing. Cleary, the Cubs have a pathway for pitching success and do well transitioning Japanese players to the MLB. It's not Ohtani and Yamamoto but Imanaga and Suzuki are not nothing and Darvish has always been a champion of the Cubs after being here. Do I expect the Cubs to win this? No. But taking the $200m out of the question, it makes the Cubs one of the best options on the table and probably gives them a real punchers' chance here. Roki Sasaki choosing the North Side probably isn't a very crazy outcome and is realistic.

Based on the usage of "aggressively pursuit" a trade, I like the idea that the Cubs will be on the front foot, and not the back. For the gripes I have with Hoyer, one thing I think he's gotten a pretty clean record on, is when it comes to trades. I'm interested to see what he cooks up when he's truly aggressive on the trade front, and in a situation where we have to assume his job is a bit on the line here. Trading for a controllable player, with $45m or so in the war chest will allow him to basically go in any direction he sees fit. And it won't be really a place where you can hide behind a fear of the future contract (which is where I think a lot of the hesitancy in FA comes from) dragging into a player's twilight years. This kind of feels like "the world is your oyster, Jed" and it'll be interesting to see what a motivated, and well stocked Jed Hoyer does.

Just to clarify, when you say top of the market, are you including FA? Especially this article, it feels very much that we should not expect the Cubs to be in the upper tier in that aspect: no Burnes, and I'm pretty confident no Fried. I suspect, especially with the other article (and this one) where they're talking about their scouting and analytics that if they go FA for a pitcher that the pitcher is going to be someone they can work with and build up. Unless that top of the market is Sasaki, but he's only top of the market talent wise. In terms of cost, he's basically free. I do think they'll go after almost every and all of the best SP's who are available via trade. "Aggressively pursuit" was used by the Athletic boys, and while they rarely let their guard down in terms of very specifics, their veil can be more transparent, IMO, on wording and phrasing. Usually when they say things, it's good stuff to tuck away. So while I think they'll pass on being aggressive on Fried or Burnes, I could see Crotchet or a Mariners SP, or even a SP we don't super expect on the market to be guys they target.

New article in the Athletic today from Sharma and Mooney. Important notes: While I think some/most of this was expected, it's important to note a few things. First, that the Cubs plan is unlikely to change, and maybe ever. If Hoyer's one year remaining isn't an catalyst for change in terms of how he views roster building...this is probably the Jed Hoyer we're going to always see. For better or worse. A few name drops, neither are surprising, in Sasaki and d'Arnaud. Interesting to note Jed was talking up the Cubs' appeal to the Japanese market the other day and then this. It feels like some internal optimism on the Roki Sasaki front is occurring. Why that is, it's up to you. Does sound like the Cubs are looking more at the SP market via trade than in FA. So while we've been connected a handful of times by others (I think, speculatively) to Max Fried, it may just end up that the Cubs stray away from those types more so than we think.

Good to hear the velo bump. He always had a somewhat interesting profile coming out of the draft as someone you could squint and see something there with. Was always a developmental lottery ticket, but he's maintained a level of intrigue under the radar, at least my intrigue, since draft day.

Morosi can be iffy, certainly. I also don't think Jon was just bored yesterday and randomly dropped Owen Caissie as a name. Bruce Levine reported the Cubs and Mariners had some sort of discussion. I would assume that Morosi isn't just making horsefeathers up and that the name Owen Caissie came up in some context. Did the Cubs offer him? Was it a team (or team's) speculation? No clue. I don't think there's anything imminent.

How available Kyle Tucker is this offseason is debatable, but I think there's a good chance he's quite available. A lot of that depends on the Astros, though. If they expect to lose Bregman this year, and expect there's a good chance they lose Tucker next year, they may decide it's best to take a temporary step back in 2025 for a reset and young-player acquisition. In that even, I'd expect Kyle Tucker to be quite available. Ultimately, I think the smoke around the Cubs, and from the Cubs themselves, is that they are pretty set at the position player side of things. Maybe that's a screen, but the Cubs under Hoyer and previously under Theo, rarely screen. They move quietly without many leaks, but rarely smokescreen. I think they probably won't go big on offense, which probably rules out Tucker. Regardless, I wish they'd continue to explore it.

I think there's some of that. I do think the whole "Caissie can't play OF long term" thing gets a little overblown. Even if we look back at the time of the draft, there was belief he could handle CF for a time because he was quite athletic for his size. Looking at reports, it's been pretty positive over the years. He's looked better in routes. He's got a true 60 grade arm...so while I get the fears that he might move off of the OF position, I'm not sure it's as imminent as many make it out to be. I think there's a decent chance he's a viable OF'er through most of his arb years, for example. He's tall but has really yet to become anything near bulky. And the power seems to be coming with swing changes - his ISO, and LA skyrocketed in the 2nd half last year and resulted in the HR power we were kind of waiting on (there was a decline in contact%, but that's another story). I've always been on the high end of the Caissie talk. So I've got some biases here. But I think there's a an OF'er through age 25 or 26 there.

I think we should be looking to move someone for pitching, but I'm not convinced it has to be/should be Caissie, either. I almost think of it as the Cubs kind of need to hitch their wagon to an OF'er and an INF'er moreso than it having to be Caissie. Especially with Bellinger in the fold for the current season, an injury to an OF'er would allow Caissie an immediate path to the MLB because if it's a corner, then he can man-it, or if it's CF, then Bellinger slides over. The same is probably true at 1b, with Bellinger moving there and Caissie to RF/DH. Overall, with Bellinger, Happ, and Suzuki, I think we should expect at least some IL trips. No problem if you're more of an Alcantara guy. Just about the same can be said for him that I did above. Why I think the Cubs kind of need to pick one right now. They need immediate MLB help, and picking one and using the other in a trade is probably the way to go. Can probably run the same conversation for Triantos and Shaw, too.

Its from Jon Morosi. He tweeted it yesterday. It sounds more (from my reading) that teams are interested in Caissie as a return in trade talks. For who? Not sure. How amenable are the Cubs? Unsure.

So, I think the answer is both "I'm not sure?" and "No" but that's because I think there are two competing questions here. First, I don't think this is just AFL helium. Long had a really good season at Double-A once he got promoted. He had a 189 wRC+, showed impressive underlying data on top of the eye popping stats. He's going to be freshly 23 next year, so he's a little on the "older" side (but not "old" - he's just not a baby like Caissie or Ballesteros upon making Iowa), but he's getting better at each level, and not worse. Dude walked more than he struck out, and still had 7 HR's and 9 2b's in 200 PA's in Tennessee. With the EV data you can probably dream on a little more power coming out of the bat. His AFL is just a continuation of Tennessee. He's absolutely locked in right now. And he's probably ticketed for Iowa. I'm excited for that...it'll give me access to Statcast stuff. Matt Mervis looked pretty shiny until you dug into the Statcast stuff and the flaws were pretty apparent. The cool thing with Long is that while he's probably more of a 1b, there's thought that he could handle LF for a while. So I'd keep an eye on that moving forward. As a LF there's more runway for what he can be. As of now, I'm cautiously optimistic. He's not like a top-10 guy in the system. But if you told me he was smashing Iowa with good underlying data in June? I'd probably believe you.

I say this as someone who thinks' Ballesteros has an upward battle to stick behind the plate even in a part time role at the MLB level...but Moises Ballesteros hasn't even turned 21 yet. No, the Cubs don't and can't have a good idea of what he "will or won't" be capable of yet. 20 year olds are not finished products and the Cubs don't own a crystal ball. There are times we know things - like Owen Caissie will not be a not a capable MLB shortstop. But Ballesteros' ability long term behind the plate is very much in the "unknown" category...even to the Cubs.

If the Cubs miss out on others, he wouldn't be a terrible 1 or 2 year option. He'll turn 35 early into the season, and catchers + age can sometimes equal quick fall-offs. He had some really solid Savant data, and is a good framer (terrible pop and arm, however).

From an illogical stand point, Owen Caissie has been my pet project since pre-draft. Having him debut with the Cubs would be a personal win for me and I matter most in the world. From a logical stand point, there's enough flaws in his game and a lack clear playing time...I can see why he'd be a guy the Cubs could or would move.

Yeah, I don't think the Cubs need to go all in for now. But I also look at their prospects and there's a few things that stand out, notably, how many are MLB ready or nearly MLB ready and how many occupy much of the same ground in terms of what they are (or project to be). I don't think the team needs to jettison them for one-year-let's-go-guys, but I do think some internal scouting and realism is necessary in that prospects have shelf life for value, eventually they'll clog up the 40-man if they're not being actively used, and that they're not all going to work out or all have space. So I think some house-keeping is really a good solution for everyone involved; for Hoyer and his continued employment, for the 2025 Cubs (and beyond) and the prospects themselves. Moving a few of them for a controllable other that we don't have in house would be good. With Bellinger opting in, that's almost assuredly a SP over anything else but if you want to get wild and crazy, maybe you make a creative trade where you lose a Parades or convince Happ to waive a NTC. I think that's pretty out there, but I guess not impossible?

For me, this is something around the best case scenario. I think Fried can be replaced with a few names, either FA or through trade...but someone of that caliber, plus the deepening of things is about what I'm expecting as your "best case" Cubs 2024 offseason outcome. That's a team you probably, on paper, write down as an 86-88 win team with some variance, and expect it to be more on the positive than the negative side due to the depth. It probably saves Hoyer's job. But I think it also highlights the limitations in Hoyer's roster building - that while there's a ton of depth, the team will remain lacking the elite-elite talent they probably need to get over that hump. It's also fair at some point to question whether Hoyer will ever do it. If he's not willing to do it when his job is on the line, then what's the time? If you allow it, there will always be an excuse to "why not now?" (I'm the poster boy. I've been saying I was going to get my National Boards since 2020. But first it was Covid, then it was settling in during a post Covid world. Then it was I had a student teacher and didn't have the time. Then I bought a house....you get the picture). I think we'll get to a point where I'll stop giving so much benefit of the doubt that it's a "hasn't yet" versus as "doesn't believe in it" type thing.

Good for Kyle. I suspected it'd have been more like a camp invite with an ability to make $3m or so if he made a roster. Hope he succeeds.

Yeah, the 2nd tier is pretty cool this year. Last year that 3rd tier was strong and this year the 2nd tier is. Both are tiers I feel like Hoyer would be good in. With that said, I think the assignment this year is "just be pretty damn good". They don't have a lot of holes - they need a SP, they need a back end RP, they need a catcher. They have so much locked in, that their paths are pretty straightforward. I hope Hoyer is forced to go outside of those tiers this year. One, because I think he needs to show a bit of a killer instinct at some point for me to feel 100% comfortable with him. That could be a FA or a trade...but something that hurts you a bit. Like a Kikuchi/Bieber addition could be fine, but feels like you need a decent injury relapse or fall off from Bieber coming back (who already was middling on the velo for part of his career) to really make you go "is that going to be enough?". And I think Kikchui is kind of cool on a 3 year deal. Just think that now's the time for the Cubs to really impact their team.

Yep. I think now is the time to kind of "value be damned" it, when it comes to a SP. Maybe Blake Snell isn't your favorite style, or Max Fried makes the rotation too left handed or something...but I'm pretty confident both of those guys are going to be pretty good next yar. Snell's going to have some inconsistencies, Fried had a little bit of a nerve thing...but they'll both likely be top-2 guys in most rotations. Garrett Crochet costs a lot of prospects and has some health stuff, but when he's healthy, I'm pretty damn sure he's good. Maybe Jack Flaherty is a guy like that. Maybe Sugano is. And maybe they'll cost less. And you'll keep your prospects. And your flexibility. But where Hoyer's job is...where the Cubs are...pay up a bit. Get something you know is going to be pretty damn good outside of weird outcomes. Now isn't the time to be cute. Make the team good.

If they drop down the next tier, I think Hoyer is playing with a lot of fire. His job is on the line. Maybe he can get another Imanaga or a Taillon And listen, Taillon's been fine. But he also had a 4.16 xFIP, was worth 2.3 fWAR and had a K% that dipped under 20%. He's a useful addition to the rotation, but I think the Cubs need more than a useful addition here. Time to add something in the tier that hurts. If it's with a top-tier SP? Okay. If it's in lieu of...Hoyer's going to have to really hit a homerun there. Or there's probably going to be a thread about hiring our next VP of baseball ops in 2025 at some point.

Teams have learned that having your players play 135 well rested, healthy, and strong games beats 155 games where an extra 20-30 are banged up, and below full health. Worse yet, it beats playing 100 games because you over extended yourself and got hurt, losing extra games because you played when you were in less than good condition health wise. In a perfect world, your best players would play every game, in full health, with full stamina, in perfect working conditions. But we don't live in that world. Load management, health and the likes are all real things.