Jason Ross

It's not *perfect* but it's not a fireable action, either. It's not like the Cubs are stuck with Cody Bellinger for eight more years. It's probably pretty likely that he will opt-out next year, even if he has a similar kind of season. He would receive a $5m buyout, and I think it'd be pretty likely that the difference in what he signs and what he's owed in 2026 ($25m) won't be that different. If he, for example, gets a 4/5 year deal with an AAV of $18m, he'd lose $2m in total in 2026 ($5m buyout + $18m is $23m) but would come with 3-4 years more of guarantees. It's not a horrible contract. It just makes him a little tough to trade right now, because he's not particularly cheap, or amazing surplus value, or young, or controllable.

Good to see. Most of this felt like the likely outcome, but nice to see Sharma and Mooney reiterate it.

Fine with this as long as they view him as a AAA depth guy. If he's the backup...well...less enthused.

This is a type-for-type trade. The Cubs love funky relievers who don't wow you with pure stuff but generate outs regardless. The Guardians love big bodied OFers who who bombs and don't mind if they strikeout.

It's for an A-Ball player. So unless Matt Shaw was demoted to South Bend right before the trade, you've got nothing to worry about there. (also, welcome to NSBB!)

Yeah, I wish we had more of a type of "guys who throw hard and get guys to whiff", but if there's a soft lining it's that the Cubs are developing those in house right now. Assuming Brown comes back healthy, the Cubs have Brown, Little, Hodge and Pearson who can all fit that mold. Morgan is an interesting guy to play off of them as someone who gets a lot of chase and soft contact in a multi-inning role. More of a 6-7th guy, probably in the "losing the game" platoon.

I'd guess it's an error on Spotrac's end. I'd imagine there's no way two sides had already agreed upon a contract.

Just spitballing, but Cleveland has a type and someone like Alfonsin Rosario would fit that type.

Per Rogers "A-Ball" player heads the other way. Name unknown yet

Looking at his Savant page, looks like he really changed as a pitcher. Different mix. Better slider. A bit different fastball

Patrick Wisdom has been DFA'd to make room

I suspect the Cubs may try to DFA or slide a pitcher or two through in the next few days. One of Jed's favorite offseason games is "claim a guy, then when I think I can slide them through, slide them through to the MiLB". Someone like Zastryzny or Hollowell might be able to snuck in right after the Rule 5 deadline, as teams have made their moves might feel like they can't afford to claim a guy like that right now.

I think he'll be an important part of the pen. With that said, he'd have to unseat Hodge, and likely, another addition to become a closer, and I'm not sure he's going to make that entire climb. Porter was really good last year. To put it this way: Hodge threw 43 innings last year and no other reliever who threw 43 innings had anywhere near as much fWAR as he did. But I think that's semantics more than anything. Who the closer is and who's the 8th inning guy or the 7th inning guy? Bah. More importantly, stacking good arms is the name of the game.

Jed Hoyer's career and future with the Chicago Cubs is literally on the line. He didn't care how he looked when he didn't trade Contreras at the deadline. Doesn't seem to care how he looks about balking at Soto and Burnes. I doubt he's drawn the line at "I wonder what I look like to some some real internet dorks care if I expose Ben Cowles to the Rule V draft" (I use "internet dorks" as self-referential because frankly, the average fan doesn't care about the Rule V draft. I do. I'm an internet dork). The more logical reason is that Ben Cowles has made it to Triple-A (with the Yankees, SSS extreme) and the Cubs sent him to the AFL. They traded for him for a reason. And there's a good chance that sometime in 2025 he's going to be called up to the MLB team as a backup infielder. So better to just add him to the 40-man now, not hand wring yourself through the Rule V draft in case someone likes him enough to carry him on the bench, and the expense to do that was a 29 year old reliever who just had TJS and a super-oft injured OF who hasn't put together a full, productive season since 2021.

I think the general understanding is that he' likely to be in the BP but could pull starts if/when injuries happen potentially. But I think he's more likely ticketed for the pen.

Bummed to see both ended up DFA'd as they were both fun prospects. Injuries are a bitch and derail careers. For their sake I hope they both find good homes. For our sake, I hope at least Adbert resigns on an MiLB deal, but for Brennen, his best bet is likely a different organization with a different mix in the OF.

If there's a positive, it's that the Cubs generally operate, especially in the trade market, very quietly. If we're looking at our last few trades of consequence, there was no smoke. The Michael Busch thing came out of left field, They also completed the Morel for Parades trade without any pre-warning. If and when the Cubs make a trade this offseason, I suspect it'll come with little smoke around it.

Totally fair! My only pushback is that this isn't Jed making those moves, but me,. So while I agree, I'm not sure Jed would...seemingly, I would! But yeah, it was a lot. I was trying really hard to find a fair middle ground and it's really hard to think through what other teams want. Fair feedback!

I accept it's a lot to give up. To help make my case, I've added two RP's savant data's below. One of them is a hot RP that many are excited about this offseason and the other is Robert Garcia, who's got tons of control. It's a lot to give up, but you're getting a ton of cheap control and it fits into that "sustainability" mold. I've omitted their names, but you can find it in the spoiler below. Totally respect those who think I'm kind of giving up the plot for something I could sign for money. And thinking back, the easy answer is probably "just sign the FA". Probably trying to be a bit too creative and put a stamp on things, but maybe the Savant data can save me a bit here.

I really worked on that White Sox deal a lot. I'm not sure where to value someone like Crotchet. On one hand, he's really awesome when he's on the mound. On the other, he's yet to show being a workhorse and has a host of injury concerns in the past. As much as I hand fight BBTV at times, they had me pretty equal on value and a recent rumor was that the Dodgers' names popping up were Gavin Lux (who I'll admit being very luke warm over at this stage). Now, that's a Bob Nightengale special, but tried to use it as a jumping off point. It was a tough back and forth - I'd rather have Alcantara, Rojas, Cruz (and really, any of the young, 18/19 year old position players can be put here. I probably should have added that. Cruz was more a placeholder for a big upside young kid) and some fodder (really wasn't considering Canario and Wesneski as more than "these guys can play right now" add-ins. But I'd also accept I'm low or BBTV is leading me asunder, It's always really hard to find out what a team would or wouldn't trade. Not only do you have to figure out what they'd want, you have to assume what other teams may or may not offer.

Ah, I guess I misinterpreted that then! Alright!

Frankly, I'm surprised it took the Cubs this long to hire me as the GM of the Cubs. With an impressive resume that includes being a 10+ year adult-baseball-league veteran and someone who's won countless video game World Series (spanning back to the mid-90s), bringing me in was a pretty no-brain-move in my humble opinion. So, what would I do if allowed to run the Cubs this offseason? This series of articles is a primer for the release of our new "You're The Cubs GM!" tool, where you play the role of Jed Hoyer and build your own Cubs offseason. Please visit the tool here and join in on the fun! As I start my fever dream of being in charge of the Chicago Cubs' 2024-2025 offseason, I think it's important to mention a few things. First, I will use the luxury tax as my budgetary line. While I'd love for Tom Ricketts in this simulation to have deeper pockets, sadly, even this version of the owner is afraid of the Tax Man. I also think it's important to outline my goal this offseason - I want the Chicago Cubs to comfortably make the playoffs in 2025. I don't think there's enough juice in the squeeze to get this team to juggernaut territory to compete, on paper, with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Still, I also don't want to create a team akin to what the Cubs have been recently - an 83-win team that needed some positive variance to make the dance. I'd like to raise the Cubs a standard deviation into the next tier of teams. Preparing for Free Agency: The first matter is strengthening the 40-man roster and making hard decisions about players' futures with the organization. The team needs to become 40-man compliant entering the offseason. There's some fat to trim, and while some players have some promise, none are so good that I feel beholden to them in the organization. Non-tenders: Yency Almonte (RP), Colton Brewer (RP), Trey Wingenter (RP), Nick Madrigal (2B/3B), Patrick Wisdom (1B/3B/OF), Keegan Thompson (RP), Christian Bethancourt (C), Brennen Davis, (OF) Many of these will be pretty digestible non-tenders; Almonte spent most of last year hurt and can likely be replaced; Wingenter and Brewer aren't the types you bend over backward for, though maybe if you project positively with Wingenter and you have an open space, you can keep him around, Patrick Wisdom is seemingly hitting a cliff of production, Madrigal didn't work out, and I'm looking to upgrade catcher, so while Bethancourt had a really fun run, he's a causality of circumstance. Things get a little dicey when it comes to Thompson and Davis. I would look to resign both to MiLB deals, but I don't feel any of the two are needed on the 40-man. Thompson is probably the hardest choice here, but as he stares down his age-30 season, I don't feel beholden to him and would instead take a chance on a few other guys out there. I expect Davis to take me up on the offer, but I suspect that Thompson will look for greener grasses elsewhere. I almost non-tendered Matt Mervis, as well, but I allowed another move I made to inform my decision here. Pitching Wins Championships Division Titles: Looking at the team, my biggest goal this offseason is to consolidate wins with limited roster space. I estimate the Cubs have roughly $50 million or so to spend this offseason, and playing nice, I will save $5 million for the trade deadline. That means I've got roughly $45 million to play with and lots of prospects. The easy answer is to "throw money around in free agency." While I think Max Fried offers interesting value, I will try my best to sit out in the top tier of free agency. While I also throw my weight as hard as I can into Roki Sasaki, I realize I can't expect to win this. Instead, my first phone call is to someone in Chicago, Mr. Chris Getz of the Chicago White Sox. Trade: Cubs trade Kevin Alcantara, Jefferson Rojas, Ronny Cruz, Alexander Canario, and Hayden Wesneski to the Chicago White Sox for Garrett Crochet and Gus Varland Is it an overpay? Is it enough? I'm trying hard to think of this from the lens of the White Sox - they need some talent infusion into the organization as a whole. The White Sox are not a team that should be worried about carrying Alcantara on the 40-man as their 40-man swiss cheese. They also add two big-time lottery tickets in Jefferson Rojas and Ronny Cruz, who aren't anywhere near MLB-ready, but with how bad the Sox project over the next three years, they're probably fine with that. They also get two players who are capable of helping right now: Canario and Wesneski can slot in to eat innings, PAs, and have upside remaining. While I'm certainly not a major fan of Baseball Trade Values, this does give pretty equal value on both sides of the coin, and I feel, all things considered, that this is a pretty fair approximation. As the Cubs, I solve the biggest issue the Cubs have: a star talent. Crotchet will probably not be a 200-inning stalwart, but getting him from the high 140s to the low 170s seems reasonable, and his baseball-savant data lets you know that this guy has a "monster" written all over him. I get that for three years - so even if we're a little "injury concerned," it's not like I gave him $300 million over nine years (yet). Gus Varland is someone who has some interesting data and someone I'd like to get into the hands of the Cubs. His fastball is around 95 mph and has above-average velocity and movement. His secondary offerings are not particularly good right now; with that said, in 2024, one of the pitchers he was most like was Justin Steele, so I think maybe the Cubs can get something out of him. He looked pretty good in 26 IP at the MLB level last year. The White Sox probably don't care about a 28-year-old reliever, and the Cubs like guys like Varland. He felt like a neat little addition. Trade Jordan Wicks, James Triantos, and Jonathon Long to the Washington Nationals for Robert Garcia This is the trade that I'm not entirely sure about, but I'm going to hope it's realistic. The Nationals don't have much starting pitching at the top of their MiLB developmental system and have a decent but not great rotation. Sure, they could go to free agency, but I think the team could use a younger, controllable starter (to replace Patrick Corbin?). They also have openings around the diamond that someone like James Triantos could fit. He could play third, he can spell Woods in center, he can spell Garcia, and he could add some DH value. The Nationals love tools, and I think Triantos is pretty toolsy. Washington doesn't have much by way of first, either, and I could see the team loving Long's bat data as a third prospect in this kind of trade. Much of this is predicated on the idea that for the Nats, a team still likely to be behind three teams in the divisional pecking order, immediate 28-year-old relievers are less valuable than three younger pieces you can continue to build around. Once again, BBTV has given me an "okay, go for it!" in terms of value, so I will accept I'm not entirely off here. Maybe a Michael Arias also slides in here to go back to the Nationals? But I think I'm pretty close. Coming back is Robert Garcia, an absolute stud of a LHP in the bullpen. The Nationals, while young and looking to be better and better, are probably more in need of young players than a 28-year-old reliever, regardless of how good he is. The Cubs, on the other hand, need relievers. So even if they overpay a bit, they get a pre-arb reliever, which they'll have for years. He slots into the back end with Hodge, and there's a real 1-2 punch at the end. Cubs sign Nate Eovaldi to a 3-year, $60m deal (with an opt-out after year 2) I'm going to build a really good rotation, and we're going to win through pitching. Eovaldi will turn 35 at the start of 2025, but he's much of what the Cubs need: he's right-handed, he adds velocity, and while he's not a strikeout machine, he would add some oomph there. In this situation, I'm bringing him in as the #4 in a really good rotation. Eovaldi bumps Assad to the Smyly role, and the Cubs retain some depth with Ben Brown, Javier Assad, Brandon Birdsell, and Cade Horton. In this scenario, I will probably grab Triple-A depth for some players who could make starts if needed. Cubs sign Scott Alexander to a 1-year, $4m contract. Scott Alexander just keeps getting by. He's a heavy GB pitcher, and the Cubs have a great infield defense, so while Alexander continues to see his ERA outpace what his xFIP says he should be capable of doing, the Cubs are set up to be a good landing place for the lefty. He would slot in as the "second lefty" and be pretty replicable mid-year if you wanted to turn back to Luke Little (barring health). I'm unsure about Little's health and how much I can count on him from jump street. Let's Get Offensive: The Cubs' first order of business on offense is to solve the catching issue. I've worked through two big trades, so I will skip making a move for Shea Langoliers or Logan O'Hoppe. I don't think either is available and even if they were, they would be quite obtainable. Instead, I'll use some of my financial ability to bring in one of the free agents. Cubs sign Kyle Higashioka to a 2-year, $14m contract. The Cubs need some home runs, and it will be hard to find someone who can do that with the way the Cubs' offensive options are and where the holes are. Higashioka hit 17 home runs last year in limited time, and while he's not an offensive juggernaut, he'd add some launch angle and power to the catcher position for 80-100 games. He's not going to be a star, and he's not a great pop-time guy, but he really excels at pitch framing. In my opinion, he's the Yan Gomes of this offseason and would be a shrewd addition. Cubs sign Donovan Solano to a 1 year, $7m contract. Donovan Solano solves an issue on the Cubs bench: he hits LHP really well. As Solano enters age 38, he's pretty unlikely to get a starting gig and, therefore, would probably be happy to take a decent payday on a good team. He can play some third, some first, and DH as well, giving him a healthy amount of playing time, especially against LHP. Solano could play some outfield in a perfect world, but the free-agent market in this regard is pretty empty. So, I went with the next best thing. Overall Outlook and Other Odds and Ends I like the team and think it solves the issues best. Adding Garrett Crotchet gives the Cubs a player you can see hitting the 5+ win plateau with a healthy season, while Nathan Eovaldi creates a lot of depth and length in the rotation. It's hard to expect much better production from the #5 spot than Jameson Taillon. The Cubs do see multiple prospects leave the organization, and that hurts. Kevin Alcantara (BA #5), James Triantos (BA #7), and Jefferson Rojas (BA #8) are all lost, as are former top prospects Jordan Wicks and up-and-comers such as Ronny Cruz and Jonathon Long. From an internal perspective, the Cubs have some pitchers you hope to make a jump and have some internal replacements for the others. I retain Matt Shaw, Moises Ballesteros, Owen Caissie, and Cade Horton, and I still come in under budget to make a second big trade at the deadline if I want. Offensively, I'm asking for a few things to get me where I want to go. First, I assume the wind at Wrigley returns to "normal." Despite the added length at Wrigley, I'm putting a little hope into Isaac Parades finding his power stroke again and getting to 20-25 home runs. You hope Bellinger is more 2023 than 2024; you hope the progress from Pete Crow-Armstrong continues. It's not going to be a world-beater lineup, but it remains deep. With Bellinger opting in, there wasn't much to get creative with. Catching is still my least favorite spot on this team. Higashioka is kind of a "meh" addition, but he's a good enough short-term solution, and he allows the Cubs to go to Ballesteros if they are bullish on his defense. I think this is a team that enters 2025 as a real challenger in the NL Central. I'd have them on paper as an upper-80s win team with some variance, which could get to the low 90s. It's imperfect and not exactly the team I'd love to have, but given the constraints of coming in under budget with ownership, with Bellinger's opting in... this is the path in which I could create the best version of the 2025 Cubs while also ensuring a deep farm system. Opening Day Lineup: C - Kyle Higashioka 1B - Michael Busch 2B - Nico Hoerner SS - Dansby Swanson 3B - Isaac Parades LF - Ian Happ CF - Pete Crow-Armstrong RF - Cody Bellinger DH - Seiya Suzuki 1B/3B - Donovan Solano OF - Mike Tauchmann C - Miguel Amaya INF - Luis Vazquez Opening Day Rotation: Garrett Crotchet, LHP Justin Steele, LHP Shota Imanaga, LHP Nathan Eovaldi, RHP Jameson Taillon, RHP Opening Day Bullpen: Javier Assad, RHP Scott Alexander, LHP Nate Pearson, RHP Tyson Miller, RHP Julien Merriweather, RHP Ben Brown, RHP Robert Garcia, LHP Porter Hodge, RHP What do you think? Do you think this team has improved enough? Are my trades realistic? Did I overpay or underpay? Let me know in the comment section below! What do you think of this offseason plan? Do you think you can do better? Then build your own Cubs roster and hit the button below! Start Your Payroll Blueprint Now View full article

Jed hasn't specifically, or publicly, ruled out anyone. What we do have is a few reports, some from people close to the Cubs like Mooney/Sharma, that highly suggests that Corban Burnes, Juan Soto and almost assuredly, includes Max Fried, are not players the Cubs will pursuit. "Mid-tier" has been brought up a handful of times to describe which waters the Cubs will be swimming in when it comes to free agency. While I think there's a decent gap between Burnes and Fried, I don't think it's enough where anyone suggests Fried is mid-tier in the way that the difference between Soto and Santander has pushed him more to the mid-tier. (I don't mean any of this as a dirty word, either, as the Cubs have the ability to make trades to address the top-end of their needs). I would be very surprised outside of agent leaks to hear that the Cubs were seriously going after Max Fried unless for some weird reason his entire market dried up.