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Jason Ross
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Everything posted by Jason Ross
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I'm pretty convinced the Cubs are on the precipice (not necessarily tonight or any specific night, but the offseason in general) of something exciting. The messaging and the behavior is different. I also think Hoyer is in a different spot career wise. I'm not sure if it'll be Tucker or Crochet...but I suspect at the end of the offseason, the Cubs will have made one of the most consequential trades of the offseason.
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Yeah, that'd knock them out of Bellinger, IMO.
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Shaw has a toe in stance and while he can pull the ball, he's more push. He went oppo 43% of the time last year in Triple-A and pulled 30% of the time. If you want "red flag in the data" for Shaw, this is one. In theory, you want pull - oppo home runs just aren't the game. Now, we can say that Shaw is uniquely primed for oppo power, but let's put ourselves in the Astros shoes: Is Shaw, a guy who's approach and set up is designed to go away from your one big advantage the guy you're targeting? I mean, maybe! Maybe you think you can retool that but maybe that's not you. Especially if you're going to just go get Bregman back. I don't want to entirely horsefeathers on this idea that they'd want Shaw. But if I'm taking a moment and being Houston, I don't think Matt Shaw is the guy I want the most. Which is weird, because as the Cubs, he's probably the guy I'm most confident about moving forward. But I admit I could be a bit biased here in that I like Shaw. But this also is why I think the Cubs and the Astros fit well. I think the Cubs are most concerned with keeping Shaw. I think the Astros might be less concerned with getting Shaw.
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I do not. I'm not saying, predicting or mocking a trade, but if you want two names I think the Astros like, I'll spitball: Kevin Alcantara - They have a history of tall, big bodied outfielders. specifically at CF (i.e. George Springer, Jose Siri). They are willing to trade some defense at times for power. Alcantara has real pull side power and Crawford boxes loom. As much as I'm a Caissie stan, we have to accept that Alcantara may offer higher upside in the OF due to position. He can handle CF for a while Jordan Wicks - Wicks is a LHP who gets a lot of ground ball action using his changeup. He's successfully pitched labbed his fastball a bit and I think the Astros would like some controllable arms (they're considering moving Valdez). If the Cubs do trade with the Astros here, I'd expect those names in the conversation. Will it happen that way? Who knows? But thinking like the Astros who likely want to add OF'ers, and play into the Crawford boxes offensively, while staying away from them when their on defense...those are guys I think they'd talk about.
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Prospect haul is big. I mentioned it elsewhere, but I think the two teams have a lot of overlap on the types of prospects they like and the skill sets. That might just me be reading things how I want, but the two teams have a lot of overlap; enough that we can go back to Carlos Correa and rumblings the Cubs liked him in the draft that the Astros went a *wee* bit off industry board with that pick. I'm curious to see if the teams get together. It feels like it'll either be a match made in heaven or in hell.
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From this WM, I think that's may be the case. I don't believe for a moment the Cubs will finish this offseason with just that thought. I do think they'll do one, very exciting thing. I don't know what it is, but they've been connected with the best traded names. Every one so far, it's feels. I do think they'll get something.
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Check the DiPoto quote above. I don't think they're moving off Castillo.
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This feels like "moving night" for a lot of teams. That's a pretty rapid fire Fried, Eovaldi and Gimenez trade.
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3/$75m
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Assume that probably takes a team out of the Crochet sweeps. Yankees had been mentioned as a possibility, though maybe it doesn't.
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Rogers mentioned specifically Boston and Seattle in conjunction with Suzuki.
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Yeah, I did take it as there was some juice to it.
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There's a lot going on there, but I do think the Astros would possibly take one back. One thing I keep coming back to, and I admit, it could just me creating things out of nothing...but Jed doesn't give off the kind of guy who would sit down with Wolfe and Seiya and talk logistics and specifics on trade situations without a really big reason. Which gives me some thought that there's enough going on somewhere, that it makes sense to Jed to consider it. Maybe Jed's okay with moving out Seiya, not Bellinger and going that route, but I'd be a bit concerned with that. I don't know...most of this is talking me into and out of scenarios as I try to make heads and tails of it.
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Fried about to pick. Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays
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I wonder how this plays into the Kyle Tucker thing. Would the Cubs move off Bellinger and Seiya for Kyle Tucker? Is Tucker cool with being a DH more so than a position guy? Feels like there is a lot going on in Jed world.
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He's 28, so I think it depends on if it kicks in in 2025 or 2026. Let's say for example it's a 2025: 12 years, with an AAV sitting in the $36-$38m. is what I'd guess. Probably an opt out in there, or some version of the Cole "opt out" where the Cubs can opt back in for an increased AAV. Maybe it gets closer to $40m.
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Hoyer got a lot of flak yesterday for making a comment about Soto, but in that comment, he said that there would be situations they'd consider going big for someone. I think Kyle Tucker fits the mold more so than most. He's versatile in that he's an above average fielder who can also play some 1b down the road. He's a big hit tool guy, the Cubs covet those in recent years. He's not a platoon guy - he hits LHH and RHP just as well - this isn't a guy you worry about being a lefty. And I think his skill set ages gracefully, so Tucker at 35 is probably on the more useful side of 35, for example. Will he do it for Tucker? I dont know. But I think Tucker has a lot of the qualities that if the Cubs were going 10+ years than it'd be for a guy like him.
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This Seiya information is weird. But also a bit interesting. What would have Seiya convinced he was headed for a time DH role? There's a few possibilities First, is that the Cubs have gotten no real bites on Bellinger. Thus having him move more to a DH space. Second, despite them working hard to move Bellinger, there's a replacement RF'er coming. You can make of that how you wish Seems like the Cubs have a lot of plates spinning right now.
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I think you could probably get it done without one of these guys but it'd probably require a Parades or the Astros to be really into Kevin Alcantara (which they might be - that's a profile they've liked a bunch in the past). But I think we have to accept that a Tucker trade will hurt somewhere. But I'm okay with that.
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2025 MLB Draft Thread
Jason Ross replied to Outshined_One's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
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Yeah, I can see Shaw carrying a lot of water here. He fits a bunch of the Astros infield prospects - strong hit tools, good power. I do wonder if his stance and tendency of pushing over pulling as much puts a bit of a damper on the Astros thoughts - with the Crawford boxes, someone who's more pull heavy could influence them. They also have Zack Dezenzo who they've rocketed through the system and has played part time at third. I won't pretend to be a Dezenzo expert, how he stacks up defensively and in his actual underlying processes....beyond me. But we can play that came with like Zach Cole in the OF as well and whether or not the Astros love him internally. I think the broader point is that I can see where the Cubs and the Astros have some real similar philosophies. They like similarly profiled prospects. They both have an aversion to long term contracts (why Tucker is available, potentially). It feels like this is a situation where they either make great partners or terrible ones.
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I'll say this: I think Kevin Alcantara is a prime Houston Astros guy. Just looking at what they've seemed to like in the OF - there's a history of tallish, athletic OF'ers...tallish, athletic CF'ers (Springer/Siri) too. Alcantara feels on the surface to be very "Astro". And with a team lacking some OF depth, I can see them being interested . That's not to say I think the Cubs can get away with it being Alcantara and "stuff" but that I suspect that's a name that gets brought up if the two teams sit down.
