Jason Ross

Yep. I think now is the time to kind of "value be damned" it, when it comes to a SP. Maybe Blake Snell isn't your favorite style, or Max Fried makes the rotation too left handed or something...but I'm pretty confident both of those guys are going to be pretty good next yar. Snell's going to have some inconsistencies, Fried had a little bit of a nerve thing...but they'll both likely be top-2 guys in most rotations. Garrett Crochet costs a lot of prospects and has some health stuff, but when he's healthy, I'm pretty damn sure he's good. Maybe Jack Flaherty is a guy like that. Maybe Sugano is. And maybe they'll cost less. And you'll keep your prospects. And your flexibility. But where Hoyer's job is...where the Cubs are...pay up a bit. Get something you know is going to be pretty damn good outside of weird outcomes. Now isn't the time to be cute. Make the team good.

If they drop down the next tier, I think Hoyer is playing with a lot of fire. His job is on the line. Maybe he can get another Imanaga or a Taillon And listen, Taillon's been fine. But he also had a 4.16 xFIP, was worth 2.3 fWAR and had a K% that dipped under 20%. He's a useful addition to the rotation, but I think the Cubs need more than a useful addition here. Time to add something in the tier that hurts. If it's with a top-tier SP? Okay. If it's in lieu of...Hoyer's going to have to really hit a homerun there. Or there's probably going to be a thread about hiring our next VP of baseball ops in 2025 at some point.

Teams have learned that having your players play 135 well rested, healthy, and strong games beats 155 games where an extra 20-30 are banged up, and below full health. Worse yet, it beats playing 100 games because you over extended yourself and got hurt, losing extra games because you played when you were in less than good condition health wise. In a perfect world, your best players would play every game, in full health, with full stamina, in perfect working conditions. But we don't live in that world. Load management, health and the likes are all real things.

Feels like this belong here. Sharma/Mooney posted an article on the Athletic today. There's not a lot there in specifics but two important takeaways. 1, The article mentions that the Cubs "have a fairly clear idea of the position players who should be there for the Tokyo Series". 2. "The Cubs are expected to aggressively pursue pitchers who would strengthen the top of their rotation and the back end of their bullpen". Not that we didn't kind of know these things, it's nice to see the use of aggressive and that the Cubs are looking at the right places in the rotation and the BP. They also mention the Cubs looking for lanes for their top prospects. Which I found interesting. Wonder if that's suggesting they'll go FA route? But could just be part of the article and that they will still make a big trade.

Snell is a good pitcher. He's a weird pitcher in many ways, but he's really good. I'd be alright with that.

The Fielding Bible, which is about the best out there for this kind of stuff had Happ as the third best LF in baseball (though intelligent folks like Eno Saris had him at #1). He was tops for the NL. Swanson and PCA both were both top-3 as well on their voting.

It'll be interesting to see who the Cubs do or don't trade this offseason as they should have some prospects ready to take some spots. Could see the Cubs shimmy out of the last year of a contract early in a trade, even with a player or two who has an NTC (expect it's easier to convince someone to waive one year of a NTC over multiple, especially if you don't expect to resign them).

Yeah. He's just not good. Tauchman is a pretty good player. He's not a star, but he's useful. The Cubs don't need to penny pinch $5m. Now, can the Cubs trade Tauchman for something else? Sure thing! He's better than getting 150 PA's and some team should probably be willing to roll with him as a 4th. They can find a different 5th OF'er. But I don't think any answer for the Cubs on Opening Day should be Alexander Canario as of now.

Canario isn't very good is the issue. He strikes out a third of the time, and he's still in Triple-A. This isn't his first rodeo in Iowa and the contact issues aren't getting a lick better, they're getting worse - a major red flag . His contact rate is sitting at around 60% currently...woefully bad. That's 13% worse than average Triple-A. His MiLB contact rate was lower than every qualified MLB hitter last year. What do we think would happen against MLB pitching instead of Triple-A pitching? He does damage when he makes contact, yes, but the process matters as much if not more here. His processes are really bad as of right now. If you're choosing Canario, someone who has every red flag as a failure of an MLB hitter over a career 101 wRC+ hitter, over his last 700 PA's a 110 wRC+ hitter and positive corner defender...then you're making the choice simply because "we don't know" what Canario can do and he's younger. There's almost no reason to believe he's the better player now or will be any time soon. Just because we don't 100% know, doesn't mean we can almost assuredly educated guess our way to the conclusion that "As it stands, Canario is not going to be successful". To put it another way, Alexander Canario had a 116 wRC+ at Triple-A while Tauchman had a 111 wRC+ at a much more difficult level. The gulf between the two levels is massive as it stands - larger than it's been in a long while. So Canario's 116 wRC+ coupled with a completely unsustainable K% at a lower level should be all we need to see to know that there's no way as it stands he'd be likely to approach a 111 wRC+ in the Majors. I fully suspect if given a chance, Canario is a sub replacement player unless something majorly changes. with his ability to hit a baseball with regularity.

Yeah you *maybe* find an extra $5m over $50m if you really squeeze thrle fruit. Tauchmann probably brings back a player with a contract (like a reliever type), so it might end up being a bit of a wash money-wise. But I think we are well short of $65m as well. $50m is my best case barring a major change of heart at the top levels, which I don't expect.

Okay. Im still going to side with Sahadev Sharma over your math. It's been widely believed the number is roughly $50m. So you're either non-tendering people who aren't being non-tendered or missing something. Or somehow you've found a missing $15m that no one else has found. No shade towards you, but I'm guessing it's an error moreso than the latter considering Sharma and how close he is to the team.

Youre missing something in your math then. It's been reported plenty of times, even dating back to Oct 1st by Sharma in the Athletic that an opt-in would leave the Cubs roughly $50m below that of what they spent in 2024. It would have been around $80m had he opted out. Don't know what youre missing, but that's the number.

Closer to $50m

A bit bummed out, if only because this likely quells some of the options the creativity of the offseason outcomes. With Bellinger, and with Hoerner hurt (not that I really expected the Cubs to move him, just that I think there was a little wiggle room there) it's a little limiting on where the Cubs can change/upgrade offensively. That's not to say the logical side of me cannot understand that Bellinger is not a bad player and that he's a pretty good option, only that the offseason now is going to look a lot more capped in how the Cubs can approach it and I think the flexibility was interesting.

You do you. But if their market value isn't within 25% of what guys are getting paid, that doesn't sound like it's a good market value to be using, to me, considering their real market value is what a team pays them., Buehler ain't going to sign a 1`/$4m deal, just like Fried ain't signing for $136m.

For market value? Fangraphs market predictions are usually pretty solid when they post those. For contracts that have been signed? Use Cot's. Spotrac is really low on most guys, IMO. They have Santander at signing below $90m. I think he'll hit north of $100m, for example, Max Fried they have at $136m.

Spotrac is not what I'd use for MLB contracts. It's pretty poor and commonly wrong. I suspect his market will be far closer to Severino based on age and track record.

He will get far more than $4m. He's probably looking at something closer to Luis Severino, who made $13m on a one year deal. Expect Buehler to get something along that line. You might give him $4m. But someone will go well above that. His market value is not "closer to $3m". You're being pretty silly there.

I'm assuming something along the lines of a 1+1 deal where that "+1" is mostly just a formality and would be a true one year deal. He's not super young, but also on the right side of 30 (for a short time). The velo came back, he's over 95mph. So I think some team is going to say "Hey, if I can get a healthy Buehler, he can be that guy we just saw in the World Series. There's a lot there". I don't think it'll be a top-top team who brings him in, but I think he'll be above the Oakland/Chicago Southside level, as well. I think the Cubs should aim higher. But I can also see the Cubs being the exact team I just spoke about.

My offseason expectations/predictions (whatever you want to call 'em) are something like this: 1. Cubs will acquire one starting level hitter to replace Bellinger. It won't necessarily be an OF'er, but it will be some sort of starting level guy. 2. The Cubs will acquire one SP who can comfortably slot into the top-3 with Steele and Imanaga. Or...at least they will believe that pitcher will do that (I can see them thinking a healthy Buehler or Bieber would do just this). One of these first two will be via a trade. I hesitate to guess which it will be. But it'll probably be like a Parades type where they're controlled. 3. The Cubs will acquire a catcher capable of playing 60-100 games if the hitter they acquire isn't like, Logan O'Hoppe. 4. Some sort of bench bat who hits LHP. A WIsdom-type replacement 5. One back end RP. 6. 1-3 other relievers who could break camp with the team if things go well, but could also provide Iowa depth. I think your wild cards are if the Cubs feel like they can do a Vlad or a Tucker type trade as their version of Mookie Betts/Francisco Lindor where they expect to extend them at some point. I think this will also depend a bit on Jed Hoyer. Is Hoyer ready to be a bit more aggressive? Agree with the idea that someone like Morsi (it'll probably be Morosi or Levine) will throw the Cubs in as a hot name for Soto or Burnes. But it'll quickly fizzle. Probably come in $5-$8m under the LT. Though there was some thought that the Cubs might still make the LT line if Bellinger opts out. If that's the case, it might open up another small amount of spending. I have a feeling the FA pick up will come before the trade. So, like, if the Cubs sign Santander or Teoscar Hernandez or something (consider these names placeholders and not predictions) they'd trade for a SP come...mid-Jan or something. But I'm expecting the Cubs to probably do both post-WM's. But maybe they do an Eovaldi at the WM's or a quick jump on Buehler in late Nov on a 1+1 year thing.

I'm in no way a major Wisdom fan, but he had done enough entering the season that it made enough sense for him to remain on the roster as a platoon guy with Busch. Was he upgradable? Sure. Did it need to be a priority? Not really. He bottomed out this year. I'm sure he will not be here in 2024 outside of maybe some org depth if he's willing to accept an MiLB deal. My guess is he latches on with an Oakland or Chicago South Side as a camp invitee with little in competition for an MLB spot.

Wisdom took roughly 40 less PAs in the 2nd half of the season versus the first. As well, most of those came in September (33 of his 69 total) and a lions' share came when the Cubs were an afterthought in the playoff picture. Wisdom saw 8 PAs before Sept 14th. Meaning of his 69 PAs post ASB, about a third of them came between Sept 14-Sept 28th. I think the usage shows the Cubs recognized he was struggling. And I think the uptick over the last 2-3 weeks when the team was all but eliminated shows that the team was probably giving him a little extra garbage time, either as a rest for the good players or as a sendoff for his few years on the North Side. I'd be shocked if they tendered him.

I didn't want to throw too many guys from the 2024 deaft on my HM list last post. But he was a name I highly considered. Really, I held off because I think Mathis is a lot closer and we have more data on him. With that said, if you told me Southisene found his way to Myrtle by June and posted up impressive (by a 19 year old's standards) numbers? I'd not be shocked in the slightest. I like the bit I've seen on him. There's upside there.

That makes sense. So probably something to monitor in the grand scheme, but nothing to stress about, either. Appreciate the answer.

Certainly...less than ideal. Hoping it's one of those small sample fluctuations. Like he had a few bad games, but they'd smooth out. Does ZiPS use OAA or UZR? Or do we even know? (I don't hopefully someone else does)