Ryan Pressly, Like His Fastball, Is Back On Track

Let's take a trip back around a month ago. It is May 6th, a slightly chilly, early-May night game in Chicago. The Cubs have made a dramatic comeback already, scoring twice off San Francisco Giants' reliever Ryan Walker behind big hits from much-maligned Justin Turner and their star outfielder, Kyle Tucker, in the bottom of the ninth, forcing the game into extra innings. As the game enters into the 11th still tied, the Cubs call upon their own supposed relief ace, Ryan Pressly, to hold the fort down and keep the game tied for their offense to have a chance in the bottom of the inning. Sadly for the North Siders, Pressly would see eight batters, would retire none of them, and would exit the game down 12-5 (two more runs would score on a double surrendered by Caleb Thielbar that would also be charged to Pressly). Mercifully, his very bad, no good night had come to a close, and with it, the reliever was essentially mothballed into mop-up duty.

There had been troubling signs that something was off with Pressly, but the cause of the issue was hard to diagnose exactly. The former Astro had seen his K% and whiff rates plummet, striking out just five of the first 62 hitters he faced as a Cub. Part of this was probably unsustainably bad, meaning, with some natural course-correction, he'd just strike out a few more hitters. But, it was fair to wonder if there was something mechanically wrong with the pitcher, or if Father Time had come for him. Thankfully for the Cubs, it appears to be the former, and not the later.

Since that fateful night in early May, Ryan Pressly has been on somewhat of a heater, throwing 13 scoreless innings since then. More importantly, he's seen his K% jump from basically "non-existent" to a very respectable 21.6%. To go with this, he's limited walks considerably, issuing just three free passes, and has a sterling 2.31 FIP and a 3.25 xFIP. 

If there was a bit of a "cause for pause" in the data, however, it was that the Cubs had banished him to pure mop-up duty. Many of the early innings in this sample size came in very low-leverage situations; a 7-2 deficit to the Mets on the road, a 6-2 win over the White Sox, and a 13-6 win over the Reds highlighted a few of his "re-introduction" innings, so it was fair to wonder how much of this would stick and how much of this was pitching in low-leverage situations, or pitching against some weak offenses. 

Pressly's usage has changed significantly over the last two weeks, however. He's been used more and more in higher-leverage moments and against better opponents. He even picked up a one-run save against the Pirates on Thursday. More importantly, there seems to be a reason for the uptick in the production: Pressly's fastball is showing signs of significant improvement. His last three outings have had some important signs of life from a pitch that looked rough early in the year. 

First, it's probably important to point to the most obvious thing: he's throwing his fastball harder. Over his last three outings, Pressly has seen his average fastball velocity sit at 94mph, and he's touched 95 once or twice on the gun as well. This is up a full tick from earlier in the season. That's great, and even though it's only one mph, it highlights that the Grim Reaper of Baseball hasn't taken his talent yet. There's some juice still there.

Better yet, his fastball shape has changed a bit, as well. Especially early in the season, he was getting more glove-side run than he had previously. This wasn't playing well for Pressly, clearly, as hitters were really crushing his offering. Through April, opposing batters had a wOBA touching .400 on the pitch. While the raw numbers were better in April, an expected wOBA of .366 on the pitch let you know he wasn't there yet. Since then, he's ticked up on the velocity, he's seen much less glove-side run on his pitch, and hitters' xwOBA has dropped to .221 on his four-seamer. 

The answer to "what's changed" seems to be tied to his release point. Pressly has seen his arm angle flatten out just slightly while also increasing the vertical release point of his pitch. This seems to be helping him change the overall shape of the fastball. 

Lastly, he seems to be able to command his pitches better now as well, as he's getting the pitch on the edge far more often now. The result? A lot of ground balls, less hard contact, and better results for the pitcher overall. 

I will pump the breaks a bit and remind everyone that we're not entirely out of the weeds here with Pressly. The improvements we're seeing have been over just a few innings; the velocity bump is over just his last three. But, these are all very important signs that he's snapping out of what caused all of the strife early in the year. 

What it means for the Cubs is that he's much closer to being what they thought they had when they dealt for him back in the offseason. A version of Ryan Pressly who can average 94mph on his fastball and can be counted on in medium-to-high-leverage situations is a good thing to have. I don't believe he's back to being the closer just because he picked up a save on Thursday. I think Palencia was given the tougher inning in the 8th against the middle of the Pirates order, and suspect that had those hitters have been due up in the ninth, that their roles would have been reversed. In addition, Cubs' reliever Porter Hodge is on the mend and isn't too far off either. But, Pressly being back in the "Circle of Trust" is a great development for the team and the bullpen. Let's hope it sticks. 

What have you noticed different about Ryan Pressly over the last few outings? Do you have trust built back in him yet? What would he have to do to earn that trust? Let us know in the comments below!