Jason Ross

He's certainly "effectively wild" but the walk rate isn't horrid right now, and we're seeing someone working back from TJS. This is not only someone who is rusty, but someone developing. We don't have full statcast data for Wiggins because he's yet to make it to the Triple-A level, so we're at a point where it's kind of hard to completely show off his strike-throwing ability or how many non-competitive strikes he throws. But what we can do is at least look at walk rates and strike% relative to his league. Jaxon Wiggins (Low-A) - 62.8% strikes with a 6.3 BB% Jaxon Wiggins (High-A) - 58 % strikes with a 13.9 BB% Low-A average: 61.7% strikes with a 11.4 BB% High-A average: 62.% strikes with a 10.3% BB% I'm not sure it's entirely fair to say he cannot throw strikes. He was an above average strike thrower and was better than average at limiting walks at Low-A and was below average at both at High-A but not egregiously so. I'd like to see improvement as well, but he's someone who gets a lot of chase and a lot of ground balls currently. You can work around some strike throwing inconsistencies with that profile. Furthermore, I do think he's accurately ranked by NSBB here. He's got massive stuff and while there's clearly some polish on the strike throwing ability, who exactly should be ranked much higher than him? Everyone below him has a wart of their own. Birdsell has weird mechanics and doesn't have massive stuff, Cruz and Valdez both have yet to hit well and are babies, Long is a popup prospect who plays 1b...

He's been playing with his slider, and he's making it cut in against LHH.We're talking small samples, but he crushed lefties in Iowa. His chase rate to LHH was 33.3%, and he performed better in ERA, FIP and xWOBA. Which, I think, explains what we're seeing.

When the Cubs selected Jaxon Wiggins in the second round of the 2023 MLB Draft, it raised the eyebrows of many. A year later, what has Wiggins done and where might he be headed? Image courtesy of South Bend Cubs We continue today looking at the Cubs' top 20 prospects (as ranked by our readers here at NSBB), by looking at Jaxon Wiggins, the ninth-ranked prospect. Before you read about Wiggins, don't miss our first three parts on the current state of the Cubs' farm system with my looks at some honorable mentions, the Cubs' Top Prospects #20-16 and the Top Prospects #15-11. #20 - Pedro Ramirez, INF #19 - Luis Vazquez, INF #18 - Michael Arias, RP #17 - Alfonsin Rosario - OF #16 - Drew Gray, SP #15 - Jonathon Long, 1b #14 - Fernando Cruz, SS #13 - Derniche Valdez, SS #12 - Alexander Canario, OF #11 - Cristian Hernandez, SS #10 - Brandon Birdsell, SP 2024 Recap: Jaxon Wiggins Wiggins was a bit of a divisive pick when his name was called over a year ago. On one hand, he missed the entirety of the 2023 season with Tommy John surgery and never really established himself as the weekend starter many had hoped for when he committed to Arkansas. On the other hand, Wiggins was scouted by Ty Nichols, who's also been the primary scout on other draft wins such as Jordan Wicks and Cade Horton. Without a final season in college, it was hard to tell what the Cubs really drafted. The former Razorback got a bit of a delayed start to 2024 due to his previous surgery, but would finally take the mound in a Cub (albeit, minor-league) uniform in early May. After making just a few tune-up starts in Arizona, Wiggins was promoted to Myrtle Beach, where he looked pretty good. In 21 innings at Low-A, the righty struck out 26 hitters to just five walks. This was a really nice development, as we already knew that the stuff Wiggins had was impressive, but his ability to limit walks was always going to be a bit of a decider for his long-term future. He quickly dusted off the rust and did what you'd hope a 23-year-old would do at Myrtle Beach: he dominated hitters. Things got a little more challenging as he moved up a level, however, as the fireballer saw his ERA jump from the low 2s to the mid-4s. And while walks never became a massive issue, his walk rate nearly doubled from just under 7% to over 13%. I'm not concerned with these. Wiggins is working back from TJ, saw three levels of minor-league baseball, and his strikeout rate continued to look impressive. The good news is that much of his struggles came with the initial call-up, and he managed to settle in and close out the year strong, striking out 17 hitters in his final 10 innings, giving up just two runs and four hits. 2025 Season Outlook and Scouting Report: ETA - 2026 It's hard not to dream on what Wiggins can be. It's likely that he will at least start the season in South Bend, the High-A affiliate of the Cubs. If he can start the 2025 season the same way he closed out the 2024 season, he shouldn't be stuck in South Bend for too long and will probably see half of a season at Tennessee, as well. This would put Wiggins on a course to be ready by sometime in 2026. The key variable in Wiggins's future value is his role. There's no denying that the fastball has the optics of one that can be dominating. Able to run his fastball to triple-digits, he does not lack velocity. While we don't have publicly available Statcast data, standing at 6-foot-6, it's likely that with his extension, his fastball is even heavier than the velocity suggests it to be. What's good about Wiggins is that there's more here than just a fastball. Baseball America reported at the time of his drafting that he had already displayed a feel for an advanced changeup, and he sports a slider that flashes plus and a curveball that is more than useful, giving him a solid four-pitch mix. Many times when we look at big fastballs, it's a "fastball and not much" profile, or a "fastball and one plus pitch," but Wiggins is already on the path to having a good mix. Mechanically, he doesn't have a wacky, wild, or funky delivery. Most of the time it's really simple and repeatable—again, not usually something that goes hand in hand with inconsistent strike throwing. Where Wiggins is probably done-in a bit, is with that frame that helps create the extension; controlling such a huge human body is not an easy thing to do time and time again. The hope is that with a consistent throwing program, continuing to define and tweak his mechanics, that he learns to do that naturally. He'll never be Greg Maddux on the mound, but he strikes out enough hitters and has shown a penchant for getting the ball on the ground that he can probably survive with a slightly elevated walk total. The good news for the Cubs is that even if Wiggins can never get his control to "decent", there's more than one pathway for the hurler to becoming a useful part of a future Cub pitching staff, as his stuff would make for the foundations of a dominating reliever if starting just doesn't work out. Overall, there's a lot to like here. For Wiggins, 2025 can be a really good launch pad for his prospect ranking. With the Cubs likely to graduate a few prospects ahead of him on the list and to trade others, Wiggins has a clear path to being a top-3 prospect in the system come year's end. However, there's enough volatility here that there's no guarantees that he's going to continue to find his mechanics repeatable or that he'll maintain his health. There's a world in the near future where it's not impossible to dream of a Horton-Wiggins 1-2 punch at the front of a rotation, but with either, enough fog that it's unlikely to happen. But that'd be a pretty fun 1-2 punch if they can make it happen. What do you think of Jaxon Wiggins? Have you changed your mind about the draft pick since July of 2023? Let us know in the comment section below! View full article

This helps to put a little context on the kind of performance Shaw is having.

He's much more of a fly ball pitcher than a ground ball pitcher, that's going to happen, yes. The point of that post wasn't to point out everything about Pivetta, but to show why there's a belief that Pivetta has more in the tank. The stuff in terms of shape and movement matches that of very good pitchers who had very good seasons. If you can have him miss a few more barrels, there's a decent jump here that can be found. Like I said, you've got to be invested in your analytical team and have a plan. But there's a pitcher here who's probably worth giving up the QO payment if you have some solid modeling on him.

In three years wasn't meant to denote a length of contract. I was saying in three years, I think its very possible we look at a Pivetta contract and look back and simply say that it's turned out pretty well. It might still have time left on it. Just that come three years, it could look like a relative bargain. The Cubs may hem and haw at a QO. Im not sure I'd agree with that hemming and hawing, though.

Absolutely. Birdsell will almost assuredly not morph into a front line rotation guy. But I come back to someone like Zach Eflin and his career and think that Birdsell can do something similar. That's not a 1:1 in style or anything, just a discussion in value. Eflin took a bit of time to really find a foothold, but he's turned into a pretty good pitcher when he's been healthy and gotten chances. I don't think Birdsell will ever repeat the 2023 Eflin had, but more so his career and trajectory. Eflin feels like a guy you'd like to have in that low-end #3/high end #4 spot if you're looking to be pretty good. And I think Birdsell can do something akin to that.

Not entirely sure I agree with that. Using his movement and velocity, here are the pitchers his 2024 most compares to: 2023 Justin Verlander: 21.5% K%, 6.7 BB%, 3.22 ERA, 3.3 fWAR 2018 Trevor Bauer: 30.8 K%, 7.9 BB%, 2.,21 ERA, 5.8 fWAR 2021 Drew Rasmussen: 23.8 K%, 81 BB%, 2.84 ERA, 1.4 fWAAR (sub 80 IP) 2018 Justin Verlander: 34.8 K%, 4.4% BB%, 2.52 ERA, 6.6 fWAR 2019 Mitch Keller: 28.6 K%, 7 BB%, 7.13 ERA, 1.3 fWAR (sub 50 IP - rookie season) 2024 Nick Pivetta: 28.9 K%, 6.1 BB%,, 4.14 ERA, 2 fWAR There's some really, really good seasons and some really good pitchers that his movement and shape matches. There's a bit of projection here; clearly he hasn't had the full season that 2018 Bauer or 2018 Verlander had. And I don't want to say that he's those guys. But his stuff looks like that of a front line guy. There's no major arm injury history here. If you sat down and you said that you were trading signing an 8+ year contract for that of a 2nd round pick and a 5th round pick, the 5th round being especially uninteresting to me as it's effectively just a lottery ticket, and you internally you're projecting him as a #2? I could buy it. You're buying a lot into your analytical department. But it also feels a bit like buying a Kevin Gausman a few years ago. In three years, I wouldn't be surprised if we all looked at Pivetta and went "Damn, he's pretty good, that was a really good deal".

The former Texas Tech righty has quickly made his way to the Triple-A Iowa Cubs. When can we expect to see Birdsell debut with the Cubs? And what might his future hold? Image courtesy of © Mattie Neretin / USA TODAY NETWORK We continue today looking at the Cubs' top-20 prospects (as ranked by our readers here at NSBB) by looking at Brandon Birdsell, the tenth-ranked prospect in the Chicago Cubs' minor league system. Before you read about Birdsell, don't miss our first three parts on the current state of the Cubs' MiLB system with my looks at some honorable mentions, the Cubs' Top Prospects #20-16 and the Top Prospects #15-11. #20 - Pedro Ramirez, INF #19 - Luis Vazquez, INF #18 - Michael Arias, RP #17 - Alfonsin Rosario - OF #16 - Drew Gray, SP #15 - Jonathon Long, 1b #14 - Fernando Cruz, SS #13 - Derniche Valdez, SS #12 - Alexander Canario, OF #11 - Cristian Hernandez, SS 2024 Season Recap: Brandon Birdsell Brandon Birdsell is not the flashiest of pitchers. He won't wow you like Cade Horton or Jaxon Wiggins will with pure stuff. He doesn't have a commanding presence on the mound like Luke Little. What he lacks in triple-digit velocity, in pure unadulterated nastiness, he (more than) makes up for with consistency, pitchability (I promise this isn't a dirty word), and deception. The righty started his 2024 campaign, where we last saw him in 2023, with the Tennessee Smokies, the Cubs' Double-A affiliate. During his 74 innings in the Southern League and throughout 15 appearances, Birdsell did yeoman's work, striking out just over one out of every five hitters he faced while walking only thirteen hitters in totality. While the strikeout numbers don't pop off the page, the overall workload showed that it was time for a new challenge, and in early July, the Cubs moved Birdsell to Iowa. Upon jumping to Iowa, the crafty pitcher saw positive developments. First, the K% jumped around 5%, which is not insignificant. In Iowa, they use the MLB baseball, and seeing him immediately adapt to different stitching is a great sign that his stuff will continue to translate level over level. There was also an uptick in ground ball rates, which is never a particularly bad sign, and a reduction in HR/FB%. If there were a few negatives, it would be that his walk rate climbed a bit, though it remains in "very good" territory, and that his ERA bumped over 4.00. I'm a bit reticent to worry about either, especially the ERA, as Birdsell surrendered 11 of his 29 runs in two ill-fated late-season outings. Be it bad starts, mechanical flaws, or just exhaustion after a long season; we can probably ignore it as an overall concern. 2025 Season Outlook and Scouting Report: ETA - 2025 With his jump to Iowa in 2024, Brandon Birdsell is firmly on the cusp of making his major league debut. As a former fourth-round selection, the Cubs have done well in finding an MLB-type pitcher outside of the top two rounds (which was a common complaint of the former developmental and drafting contingent under Theo Epstein). Usually, when someone breaks out from these ranks, it's accompanied by a general belief that they will ultimately settle as a serviceable #5. Still, I think we might be sleeping a bit on Birdsell - there might be a bit more than a simple #5 starting pitching option to be had here. Looking at his body of work, this is not someone I'm overly concerned about when it comes to generating strikeouts. His Savant data from Iowa was pretty clean. The fastball sat at 95mph on average and generated better-than-league-average in-zone whiff, suggesting it's an above-average offering. Birdsell has a pretty good slider, as well, and sees hitters chasing it out of the zone nearly 37% of the time, which is nearly 7% better than Triple-A pitchers overall. I think there's a better-than-average strikeout potential with the righty, coupled with his lack of walks and general ability to remain around the zone. Don't project him to struggle with that. Birdsell excels at deception in his delivery, which is where I think his fastball and slider excel. He has a funky delivery: He stays very upright with his back and comes forward, looking as if he's going to shotput the pitch at the hitter. It feels like hitters initially struggle to pick up the ball, slowing down their reaction times. In a game of milliseconds, Birdsell uses every one to his advantage. I've got Birdsell as a ready-made back-end starter right now who could probably see himself playing up as a low-end-middle-rotation option if things break well for him. He could probably stand to add a pitch that would better attack left-handed hitters, as his changeup isn't anything other than a "show-me" pitch as of now, and his curveball is fine but isn't as good as his fastball/slider combination. If the lack of a real lefty-attacker doesn't limit his ceiling, his injury history might, as the righty has a few medical issues dating back to college (though he's been a clean bill of health so far with the Cubs). With that said, I do feel like he's a bit slept on. I wouldn't be surprised to see him carve out a role as a really solid fourth option on first-division types down the road if he remains on the healthy side of things. I fully expect to see him debut in 2025 with the Cubs, possibly within the first two months, if an injury were to strike one of the members of the Opening Day rotation. What do you think of Brandon Birdsell? Do you think he'll break the glass ceiling of being a fifth starter? Let us know in the comment section below! 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Just to play devil's advocate, and this isn't necessarily an argument for the Cubs, but that if you're Sasaki, going to the Dodgers could leave you in a position to be more easily over shadowed. The Dodgers have had multiple pitchers need major surgery recently, as well. Neither would help you maximize your next contact and recent report from Jim Allen who covers NPB suggests that Sasaki is heavily going to consider his second contract when signing his first. I think there's arguments on both sides, why Sasaki may prefer the Dodgers (winning, market, geography) but also reasons to not prefer the Dodgers. Again, from Allen, it seems as though Sasaki's NPB team has had him on media lockdown, so what he truly wants...is pretty up in the air.

On Canario, I agree. He wouldn't be in my personal top-12. Probably closer to back half of top-20 if we're quibbling - but I'm using the NSBB rankings for this so alas, he's the number 12! I'd have a few of the 2024 draft crop sprinkled throughout (I really like Cole Mathis and Ty Southensene) too, but I'll avoid getting on my soap box that I can't imagine anyone wants to hear me rave on. Getting back to the topic at hand, my hopes on Canario are pretty down - being realistic, I think he's organizational up/down depth moreso than even a Patrick Wisdom type who hits just enough home runs that you can ignore most else. But I really am rooting for the guy. He's had a lot of adversity and I want t see him do well. The TLDR; Yeah, Agree.

Continuing on with our exploration of the Cubs top-20 prospects, we look at the prospects who are just on the outside looking into the top-10. Who might break out in 2025? Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images Our exploration of the Cubs top-20 continues with prospects #15 through #11. We explored #20 through #16 previously. Below is a quick recap of the prospects who NSBB voted in each of those slots. #20 - Pedro Ramirez, 2B/SS/3B #19 - Luis Vazquez, SS/3B #18 - Michael Arias, RP #17 - Alfonsin Rosario, OF #16 - Drew Gray, SP #15 Jonathon Long, 1B/LF, Tennessee Smokies (Double-A) Jonathon Long is one of the most interesting prospects on this list right now. Long is a former 9th-round selection in the 2022 draft out of Long Beach State University. Entering the season, Long didn't have a massive resume suggesting he belonged to the Cub's top 10. Lacking draft pedigree or the ability to play a premium position, Long faced an uphill battle. However, something changed for the slugging right-hander mid-season upon a promotion to Tennessee. While he put up a strong enough time at South Bend (.247/.346/.417 121 wRC+), the first baseman went nuclear at Double-A, posting an insane 189 wRC+. On top of that, he's had amazing exit velocity, and statcast data suggests that while he's probably not 190 wRC+ good, he's maybe being slept on. This earned Jonathon Long a trip to Arizona in the Arizona Fall League. While the pitching at the AFL is usually on the "light" side, Long has remained red-hot, hitting six home runs (tied for second), an OPS over 1.100 (fifth best), and a .348 average (9th best). Likely, he will immediately jump to Iowa to start the 2024 season. While it remains a narrow pathway to the MLB playing first, there seems to be enough juice with Long that this isn't a nothing prospect, either. Could he be more Matt Mervis than Michael Busch? Maybe! But any time you get this kind of production from a draft position that is best described as a "lottery ticket," you're a winner regardless. #14 Fernando Cruz, SS, DSL Cubs If there is one word that I think applies to Fernando Cruz, it's "patience." Cruz, the prize of the 2024 International Free Agency Period for the Cubs has yet to come stateside. While playing with the Dominican Summer League Cubs, the teenager struggled a bit on raw numbers - striking out 27% of the time, hitting just two home runs, and finishing with a .655 OPS. But. It's important to remember...Cruz is a teenager. We've seen with Cristian Hernandez (who features on this list) that hype/promise/expectations for even prized IFA players need to be tempered a bit and that it can take a while for a player to break out. Cruz has a big future, and while the numbers don't jump off the page, we're talking about a big promise here. Just be patient. #13 Derniche Valdez, SS, ACL Cubs Most of what was written about Fernando Cruz also applied to Derniche Valdez. Derniche Valdez was the 2023 Cubs' big IFA splash, signing for $2.8m and finding his way to the DSL Cubs. While Valdez also struggled with strikeouts, he showed off the power potential, hitting six home runs as a 17-year-old and earning his way to Arizona in 2024. Sadly for Valdez, I don't think the 2024 season went how he hoped it'd have gone. The shortstop started the year on the restricted list, which delayed his debut in the Arizona Complex League. When he finally got going in May, he quickly suffered an undisclosed injury, which knocked him out until July. Overall, the powerful hitter only saw action in 17 official games and had under 70 PAs, making it very difficult to evaluate the season other than to consider it a lost year and to hope for a more consistent and normal year in 2025. Valdez may still start 2025 in the ACL but could also see time in Myrtle Beach. Getting the most out of his power will be a point of emphasis for the former IFA prize. But much like with Cruz...just be patient - there's a pretty good foundation for a player here. #12 Alexander Canario, OF, Iowa Cubs (Triple-A) The hard-hitting outfield prospect, Alexander Canario, is in a very weird position in the Cubs' organization. On the surface, Canario had a pretty good year in Iowa, hitting 18 home runs in under 300 plate appearances while posting an isolated slugging over .270 and an overall line good for 116 wRC+. However, a longer look at the righty gives you some pause as to what he can be moving forward. Canario's sub 63% contact rate was nearly 10% below that of the Triple-A average, and if he carried over the same contact rate to the MLB (which, considering the jump in talent, would be hard to do), would put him below every qualified hitter at the level. The results at Iowa suggest one thing, but the processes suggest another. In the end, I don't think Canario has much of a pathway with the Cubs. The Cubs already have four OF starters for three positions between Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, and the recently opted-in Cody Bellinger, and that doesn't factor in at least two prospects Canario is behind as well in Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara. If the Cubs opt to keep Mike Tauchman, Canario might be no better than eighth in the pecking order. While I don't think he will offer a ton of trade value, I suspect that he could be on his way out of the organization this offseason as a 2nd or 3rd piece in a smaller trade. A team that's pretty empty in the OF could give him a chance to see if the power can outpace the contact issues, and maybe he could carve out a Patrick Wisdom-esque type of career. There's a decent chance that Canario is just that of a Quadruple-A player, but I remain rooting for him to succeed somewhere. #11 Cristian Hernandez, SS, South Bend Cubs (High-A) The "next A-Rod," Cristian Hernandez, is a good reason to remain patient with Derniche Valdez and Fernando Cruz. Entering the season, Hernandez had struggled over his previous 800+ plate appearances in Low-A. Struggling to hit in general, Hernandez was starting to look to the outside observer as a bust. With improved mechanics and a better approach at the plate, Hernandez posted a much, much, much improved 135 wRC+ before being promoted to South Bend. Hernandez struggled a bit more upon moving up, but we can probably pass that off as new struggles at a new level. It's hard not to be kind of excited about the progress Hernandez has shown. "The next A-Rod" was always an unfair comparison, and I think we know today that he's probably not that guy. He's not a major power bat, and he may never be one, but he's showing much better barrel control, and there's enough in the body that, with some added muscle, there's still power projection. Hernandez may never become an amazing, undeniable star prospect, but his development is fun, and there's a real chance he's definitely a top-8 or so prospect at year's end. 2024 was a big year for the former IFA prize. View full article

Yeah, there's probably not many Hoerner-for-SP straight swaps that make a ton of sense. It's probably Seattle-or-bust here. I wonder if the Giants would be a team you could engage with, too. But I think that's probably me just wanting to see if you can take advantage of Buster Posey after his weird comments on RBIs and not based on anything real. I think there's one other avenue, and it's finding a team who needs a 2b but has a deep farm system or something else extra. The Boston Red Sox could be a match here. There's been some talk, for example, that they would be willing to trade someone like Wilyer Abreu to open up space for Roman Anthony. So maybe you find a team who wants Abreu - have to assume Breslow and Hoyer could get together on something. Not trying to create something out of thin air here, just spitballing another solution. Sean Murphy for Willson Contreras type three-team-deal. I know Kyle Teel is a popular name but I think the Red Sox keep him. I think the Red Sox/Cubs avenue here requires a third team. But could be possible, too.

The one world where a Hoerner trade works is if internally, you're really high on Matt Shaw., I'm just kind of spitballing here, but if your analytics department is projecting him as a guy in 2024 you can pin down as a 105-110 wRC+ hitter, with positive base running and a neutral(ish) defender at 2b? I think you can find the math that works in the right kind of trade. For example, using Jonathon India's 2024, India finished with a 108 wRC+, a neutral base running value, and a -10 DRS/+1 OAA. In 150 games, this got India to the 2.8 fWAR plateau. If you're looking at Shaw, and internally you've got his bat around that range, you'd expect he's probably going to be able to add value on the bases even if he loses a little defensively. If you get the 4 fWAR+ SP on the back end while preserving the majority of your MiLB system for other things and you're losing ~1 fWAR of value at 2b or so, I think you're coming out ahead. Now, that comes down to how confident you're in Matt Shaw immediately. But I think the math on Hoerner trade works depending on how high on Shaw you are.

Makes sense. Juan Soto is likely going to hold that whole thing up, especially because the gap between Soto and the "next" is pretty big. Alonso, represented by Boras, feels like someone who will likely take time to sign after that (he feels like a January guy?). The gap between Burnes/Fried and the next group feels far less of a chasm. Feels like something that could help if the Cubs are encouraged to move Bellinger or Hoerner.

Which is a fair point! Please don't add me to the "whining" crowd, as I think I'm pretty level headed. With that said I also think there's something to be said about track record and expectations moving forward. I don't think Kikuchi is a bad pitcher at all. Pretty good, actually! But last year was a high water mark for him, in his age 33 season. Perhaps we're seeing a mid-30's revival, but he's also already on the low end of exit velocity, doesn't miss barrels, gives up hard contact, and doesn't generate a good deal of chase. There's a pretty good chance 34 and 35 year old Kikuchi looks more akin to 2023 and 2022, as well. Which leads me to where my concern is. If the Cubs plan is "trade for a true 4+ win SP and sign a mid-tier guy" then I'm all abord. Good offseason! If the plan for the rotation is a Yusei Kikuchi...then I'll remain fairly underwhelmed with their ambition. Which is where I am at. Which, I do, again, feel is pretty level headed. I'm trying to remain pretty optimistic that the team is aiming for more this offseason. We have seen reports they will be aggressive in trades, so I'm not ignoring that either. Optimism remains. Where the Cubs have an issue is a bit in marketing. I do think there's some upheaval with the ambitions of the team. Rightly so in many ways, IMO. It probably doesn't help much that the team has basically ruled out any big FA of note before FA. Rightly or wrongly, it's probably creating some extra annoyance.

On the pitching front I agree. Seems to be more or less confirming that the Cubs are likely to sit out the Burnes/Fried top of the market type thing in free agency, I think the Hoerner speculation/non-speculation is worth monitoring and the discussion revolving around Bellinger feels a bit "new". My hope is that the FA mid-tier search is as a 2nd piece to a bigger, more aggressive and top-end-starter minded trade. I do have a nagging fear that the will fall into the rut of "we can fix the rotation by signing mid-tier guys and fixing them". But trying to remain on the optimistic side.

Yep! I avoided posting the full source because it's an ESPN+ article and many don't have access to it. I agreed with the Hoerner thing...until the next line. It sounded very speculative, until he said "also available" and transitioned to Bellinger. Had he just moved to the Bellinger thing I'd have 100% agreed, but the use of "also" seemed to indicate the same feeling on Bellinger as they did Hoerner's trade status. But maybe that's just my interpretation.

This comment was directly related to the free agent market. Interesting to see Hoerner's name pop back up as a trade candidate even with the injury. Interestingly, is how he characterized Bellinger. "another Cub available" he said, which made it feel like the Cubs are certainly open to moving him. Cubs were mentioned in the Yusii Kikuchi and Nick Pivetta blurbs of the article (it was an ESPN+ exclusive) but more as a group of other teams who might be in the same market, and less, it felt like, "The Cubs are actively looking at this guy". This has the feeling of a weird offseason build up.

It probably extends past that. It seems as though the Cubs have gotten very good at the transitioning portion of things for Japanese players as well. The soft stuff. Food, catering, the small little every day things. On top of having a pretty good pitching infrastructure. The team has done well with other Japanese pitchers like Shota Imanaga on tweaking his stuff to fit the western game, but also has tweaked and played with other pitchers who found success. Will this be the pitch Roki Sasaki wants to hear? Who knows? But the good news it that it's a pretty multifaceted argument that can be made.

Interesting comment Allen made in a subtweet - apparently he's never even spoken to Sasaki because the team has an "authoritarian" handling when it comes to media. Might be one of these types of things where no one really knows him or what he wants.