Jason Ross

Yeah, I think the biggest thing working against him is the Cubs system. He's been over shadowed at almost every level by a player the industry is higher on. He's got Caissie, Alcantara, Shaw, Horton, and Ballesteros, many of whom who hit very well and play similar positions right there with him. Easy to forget him. He's really good.

Yeah, with Pressley, we're probably getting to a point of legitimate worry. His K% is currently 8.1% - it's the second lowest among all qualified relievers. That is a rate of five strikeouts on the year against 62 batters faced. The slider is grading out really poorly based on Stuff+ as is the fastball. And outside of inducing ground balls, I cannot find a single thing in his statcast profile that's positive. The Athletic brought up the fastball and how it's shape is trending more towards a cutter. None of this is really great news Determining what is the knee and what is age and what is something else...is hard to determine. But I've moved from "he's been productive for a while, let's see where we go" to "I don't know..." over the last little bit. The flags are transitioning from yellow to red. They don't need to DFA him yet, but I'd guess a reshuffle of the bullpen a bit in terms of pecking order might need to be done for bit while Pressley is continued to be evaluated. Not necessarily upset at how last night played out, but just in general, he probably belongs in more low leverage situations overall.

Another fun one in the books!

Image courtesy of © Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images The Cubs are in the best-case scenario with many of their prospects. The parent club is so good that there aren't many spots for their guys to break through. This isn't a bad thing, as we could see this week with Cade Horton. It means that the team isn't forcing prospects into spots that they're not ready for, or with an expectation that they save the team. Instead, they're taking these talents and surrounding them with a strong team—which, in turn, will allow these players to fill roles of lesser importance when an injury occurs. A little extra development never hurt anyone. Overall Farm Grade: 🥶 Being fair, it's been less than a perfect week. A few players had a bit of a rough go, and they're the best names in the system. Moises Ballesteros saw his hit streak end. Jaxon Wiggins struggled a bit. South Bend, despite having an interesting roster, cannot buy wins. It happens, but you'd like to see it not happen, if you had your choice. Not every week can be a winner. Iowa Cubs, Triple-A (3-3) Up next: @Toledo Mudhens (Cleveland Guardians) 🔥 Cade Horton, SP: 6 IP, 5K, 1 BB, 1 R, 1 ER: He's probably ready. This was the second time in as many weeks that Horton faced off against the Bisons, and once again, he looked sharp. The walks are behind him, as Horton threw 56% of his pitches in the zone. He generated 11 whiffs, and looked pretty dominant. I wouldn't be surprised if this was his last start with the I-Cubs for a while. 🤷‍♂️ Owen Caissie - OF: 112 wRC+, 43.5 K%, 17.4 BB%, 3 2b, 1 3b: Caissie has had a strange year in many ways. Since last July, he's pulling the baseball much more, hitting it in the air and really getting to his power. It's come with the cost of the contact rate plunging ever further, though. He's turning more and more into a three-true-outcome guy, but he will probably BABIP pretty well, as he's has shown a consistent ability in that regard. 🔥 Jonathon Long, 1b/DH - 167 wRC+, 18.5 K%, 7.4 BB%, 1 2b, 1 HR: Long was a Statcast darling entering the year and has absolutely crushed Triple-A arms so far. The only issue for him is his position; he's probably a first baseman who might moonlight a little at third base or DH. If the Cubs pull the plug on Justin Turner, there has been a lot of talk about Ballesteros coming up, but I think Long is the better Turner replacement. Keep an eye on him. 🥶 Kevin Alcantara, OF: 76 wRC+, 22.7 K%, 9.1 BB%, 2 2b: It hasn't been a torrid start for the Jaguar this year. He's been doing damage on fastballs but has struggled on breaking pitches. He's always had that issue, and he did (at least) keep his strikeout rate under control last week, but the full picture is of a player whose offensive skill set is still fairly raw. Knoxville Smokies, Double-A (2-3) Up next: vs Columbus Clippers (Cleveland Guardians) 🥶 Brett Bateman, OF - 19 wRC+, 30 K%, 5 BB%, 1 2b: There are some interesting skills here. I just don't know if the the contact-only skillset is going to play at the highest level. He's had a strong enough season, with a 109 wRC+, so this week is more aberration than it is the norm. 🥶 Will Sanders, SP - 5 IP, 5K, 3 BB, 3 R: Sanders is in a bit of an up-down cycle right now, alternating good starts and weaker starts over the last few. He's one of the few arms of consequence in Knoxville right now, which makes the mediocre ones stand out a bit more than if he were in, say, Iowa. 🥶 Grant Kipp, SP - 5 IP, 4 K, 0 BB, 4 ER, 4 R: Kipp's had back-to-back clunkers after starting the year really well. The slider is a pitch by stuff models, and ultimately, I think he's more of a reliever than a starter. Hopefully, he can start looking a bit more like the guy he did a few weeks ago 🔥 Pedro Ramirez, INF - 136 wRC+, 20 K%, 10 BB% 2 2b: Finally, a positive out of Knoxville for the week! Ramírez got back to his normal ways, hitting a lot of singles and just being on base a lot. That's what he does best, and why he stays relevant. South Bend Cubs, High-A (1-5) Up next: Fort Wayne Tincaps (San Diego Padres) 🔥 Jefferson Rojas, INF - 180 wRC+ 19.2 K%, 3.8 BB%, 2 HR, 1 2b: That's more like it. Rojas had a nice week and the power flash was awesome. Here's hoping he really takes off. He missed time this year, and if this is a signal of things to come, he could make a jump to Knoxville sometime. 🔥 Ivan Brethwor, OF - 147 wRC+, 25.9 K%, 11.1 BB%, 1 HR, 1 2b: He just keeps hitting. Brethowr hit a towering home run this week, which was good to see. The approach has been strong, but the power hadn't really been flashing as often as you'd like. He also stole 2 bags; this is notable because he's a giant. He's been a fun find in the draft. 🔥 Carter Trice, OF - 181 wRC+, 5 K%, 30 BB%, 1 HR: How do you overcome a .231 batting average on the week? Hit a home run and walk 30% of the time. Trice has had a nice start at South Bend, with a 126 wRC+, and like Brethowr, he's eyeing a possible promotion to Knoxville at some stage in the season. 🥶 Jaxon Wiggins, SP - 3 IP, 2 K, 3 BB, 2 ER, 4 R: Not his best appearance. Wiggins, used as a piggyback in this one, labored through the game in a way we hadn't seen this year. He's been so good you can ignore it, but you'd like to see these be the exception and not the rule. 🥶 Cristian Hernandez, SS - 52 wRC+, 16.7 K%, 16.7 BB%, 1 2b: Hernandez has cooled off over the last few weeks, after a torrid start. The approach looks strong, and no one remains hot all year. It'd be great to see him take back off, however. Myrtle Beach Pelicans, Low-A (2-3) Up next: vs Delmarva Shorebirds (Baltimore Orioles) 🔥 Nazier Mule, SP - 5 IP, 5 K, 2 BB, 1 ER, 1 R: Mule is off to a pretty good start this year. He's had zero true blowups, and he's been far better than he was last season. His season ERA is well under 2.50, he's striking out over 26% of the hitters he's facing and his walks have been survivable, at 11.9%. A little more command refinement and he'll be ready for the Midwest League. 🥶 Cole Mathis, 1b/DH - 72 wRC+, 26.3 K%, 5.3 BB%, 1 3b: Myrtle Beach can be a tough environment in which to hit, especially early in the year, but I didn't expect Mathis to struggle out of the gates there. He's an experienced bat and has played well in the Cape. He's coming back from Tommy John surgery, but I was hoping for a little more out of him than the 109 wRC+ he's posted thus far. 🔥Angel Cepeda, INF - 153 wRC+, 42.3 K%, 7.7 BB%, 1 2b, 2 HR: The youngster has struck out his fair share this year, but at age 19, it's pretty excusable to do that in April and May. He's been hitting the ball really hard in recent games, and is worth watching. What do you think of the Cubs prospects this week? Did I miss someone? Let us know in the comment section below! View full article

Flexen pitching today should be notable. With only three days between now and Saturday, it would seem less likely that thr Cubs are setting him up to start. Which means someone else will likely start that game.

Four hitters are in the 90th-percentile in hard hit and chase. Aaron Judge. Juan Soto. Kyle Schwarber. Carson Kelly. Just like we all predicted pre-season

He's gone 6 innings before. Literally done it two starts in a row. Those are the first time he's gone 6, but each game saw him 21 and 22 batters, and he's faced more in 5 innings before. I would guess his current PC limit is around 80-85. But he's a pretty extreme strike thrower, throwing around 54-56% strikes in most of his starts. I think he will be able to get through five in that PC. You'd need a little extra BP for him, but it's probably the time to bring him up.

It should also be noted: Alcantara is having massive fits with breaking balls, whiffing nearly 40% of the time against a bunch of them.

Yes. And to add a few things: 1. Matt just posted an article about it and it seems like he'll be back before May ends. 2. Agreed with the overall point. The Cubs will face the underbelly of their schedule through May. So while it's fair to be bummed Shota will miss some time, it's probably the best time to be down Imanaga in that they will likely be more capable of beating bad teams than good ones minus him. It's not good, but it's probably not going to be horrific.

Image courtesy of Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images There are lots of iconic duos throughout history: peanut butter and jelly, Han Solo and Chewbacca, Batman and Robin. Duos take two items that, on their own, have some flaw, but together, elevate the whole product to something else entirely. Jelly's solo act (a little overly sweet in my opinion) is fine by itself, but when you add in the saltiness of peanut butter, magic happens between those two slices of bread. It creates a salty-sweet combination that neither peanut butter or jelly could dream of without the other. It is within their differences in which fusion is created. It is in this same vein, then, that we should begin to examine the 2025 version of Brad Keller. Keller has struggled to find a footing within the confines of a major league role. At times, he's been an acceptable, if unremarkable starting pitcher, but over the last few seasons, had fallen out of favor in Kansas City. Last year, after a trade from the White Sox to the Red Sox, Boston attempted to convert the right-hander to the bullpen; this too looked like a failure. Upon signing with the Cubs, it would have been easy to expect the same to continue. It was here, a duo was born; Brad Keller's sweeper and Brad Keller's slider. Brad Keller has always had the slider—it's arguably been his signature pitch, grading out positively with Fangraph's Stuff+ at 102. Despite the quality of the slider, Keller's been searching for a partner to go along the pitch for a while, as nothing else he's thrown has been above the 100 Stuff+ level. Some pitchers can truly be a one-pitch guy, but Keller's slider wasn't that good. It needed something else... it was missing it's peanut butter. First, Keller tried to pair his slider with a curveball.. Starting in 2023, he would throw the pitch nearly 20% of the time trying to find that chemistry with his best offering, but it didn't work. His curve was simply a bad pitch, and it graded out poorly in almost any metric you could imagine: Stuff+, movement, wOBA against, whiff%, etc. The thought process was good; pair the slider with a pitch that would break more vertically, but it was much less than a match made in heaven, The two would break up after just a year. It wasn't meant to be. In 2024, the seeds of what he would become were planted. Keller would begin to play around with his slider. First, the slider became a pitch that was less of a horizontal mover, and much more of a vertical-mover, dropping 4 inches relative to other sliders more than it's prior shape. From the ashes of his old slider a sweeper was born, but it was clearly in it's infancy. The pitch was crafted during Keller's stay with the Red Sox Triple-A affiliate after being sent down mid-year, and it would debut at the MLB level at the end of the season. The problem with the pitch was clear when he showed it off in Boston: it was too close to his slider in shape and movement. The two had some promise, but the relationship wasn't love and first sight—these two would need to put in some effort to make this work. Below is a movement profile of Keller's pitches last year. Note how close in shape the sweeper (represented in brown-yellow) and the slider (yellow) was. That's a problem, as they were stepping on each others' toes. To truly be a duo akin to the PB&J, they would need to find a way to be themselves just a little more. It's not uncommon in early relationships to try to be too much like your new partner. It was love, but young love. It wasn't until this year that the two pitches began to work in harmony, as Keller needed to refine his sweeper further. Now, his sweeper truly does what a sweeper is designed to do: it breaks hard on the horizontal plane. The horizontal movement that he's getting on this pitch now puts him among the league leaders in this category. He combines this with a slider that has some of the most vertical drop of anyone in the league. Most importantly, the velocities of the two pitches are very close, as his sweeper's average velocity is 85.8 mph, and his slider sits at 87.1 mph. These two pitches present very similarly, until one runs away from you, and the other below. Fusion had been achieved. It's taken a few years, but at long last, Brad Keller has found a pairing for his signature pitch, and the results show. First, Stuff+ adores the pitch, grading his slider out at a whopping 131, making it one of the best pitches in baseball (for reference, it grades out better than Emmanuel Clase's slider). Baseball Prospectus' Stuffpro and Pitchpro, two other pitch value metrics, also find his pitches elite; particularly loving his sweeper, grading it as one of the best pitches in baseball. And Brad Keller's Baseball Savant page tells the story of his season as well, as he sits near the 90th percentile in expected ERA, expected batting average against, ground-ball rate, hard-hit rate, and chase rate (among others). Don't let the 4.30 ERA on the year fool you—Keller's got the goods. The improvement Keller has shown goes beyond simply moving to the bullpen. It's a story of refinement, and a story of love; the perfect pairing of two pitches. Brad Keller always had his jelly, his slider. It was a fine pitch, but as a solo act, it was lacking. His slider needed it's version of peanut butter, and he finally seems to have found that in his sweeper. The two work in harmony to be better than they would be alone. They have become a dynamic duo of pitches. Keller's fastball has gained velocity but still grades out poorly on shape models such as Stuff+. Without his sweeper, this may be more of a concern, but as a reliever and with his new offerings, this can be largely forgiven. Isn't love beautiful? What do you think of Brad Keller moving forward? Do you think he can become a high-leverage reliever? Let us know in the comment section below! View full article

No, I understand the point. My counter point to that is that if that time happens in the next, say, 5-6 weeks than the Cubs are in a good time for that. They will be better capable of stealing wins against, say, the Marlins than the Dodgers. It's more likely that Jameson Taillon and bullpen will shut them down and allow for that 2-1 win. As well, having Cade Horton as the fall back gives the Cubs a high upside arm and the competition is a safer landing spot as well. All I'm saying is that even if the Cubs have a slump offensively, if it happens when Shota is on the shelf, it's happening at the best time for it. You never want to lose him, but its better to lose him in May and have him back in June than lose him in October when the competition might be higher, without time to get him back on the mound and right and with Horton's innings done. If it had to happen, the next like five weeks is the time you'd circle on the schedule for it to happen, essentially.

If there's a small light at the end of the tunnel, this is the best time for it to happen: 1. It's early enough in the season that Cade Horton hasn't hit innings limits 2. The Cubs are beyond their roughest part of the schedule based on opponents. It's never good to be down Imanaga, but its a lot easier to find a SP to pitch against the Nats, Marlins and White Sox than the Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Phillies.

Mets, White Sox, Marlins, Rockies, Nats: These are the next five teams this spot in the rotation would face if Shota misses time.

Sunday No-Funday

That's worse than last time based on just a first view. Cade Horton, come on down?

Yeah, he's been nasty today. The K's make you think that he's been less good (never mind, wrote that when he had 3 K's through 5, then he K'd two more because horsefeathers me and my post), but the 11 whiffs tell the real story. Once again absolutely pounding the zone at 56%, slider with 6 whiffs on 15 swings.

Yeah, he promptly went 0-24 the moment I wrote an article praising him. Ruining my street cred.

Id say we are certainly in a "swing happy" moment. Hopefully he can right the ship before a full blown cold streak.

Pete's hot streak hss been fun but feels like he's swinging wildly again. Making contact but at bad pitches. Need him to be a bit more collected.

Yeesh. Awful call on Seiya.

Hard to tell. They have had a SOS in the bottom of the league and are 14-10 against under .500 teams while being 4-5 over. It's not enough to say for sure they're beating up on bad teams. Hunter Greene looks like he turned a corner, and the pitching is really good.

I already beat you to it.

A villain is born. Milwaukee is going to hate PCA.