Outshined_One

I strongly disagree with this statement. Shaw was a consensus top 15-30 prospect in baseball coming out of the 2024 season with a 144 wRC+ across AA and AAA in his age 22 season. Caissie featured a 139 wRC+ at AAA in his age 22 season and Ballesteros had a 121 wRC+ in AAA in his age 21 season. Shaw also had the added benefit of being a plus defender at an infield position, which neither has. This isn't to say that Caissie or Ballesteros won't be better hitters than Shaw in the majors over the course of all their careers, but it is a reminder that Shaw was a premium prospect at this time last year with a really good offensive and defensive profile. Caissie and Ballesteros could easily see similar struggles as Shaw did this past season, if not worse, in 2026. Whether penciling Caissie and/or Ballesteros into starting roles in 2026 is a good idea is a post all of its own, but I would not use their projected value as a basis for how Shaw should be used in 2026. That said, while I've been slightly in favor of trading Shaw, if the Cubs end up keeping him, he's a pretty good bet to end up around the 3 fWAR range, which would make him a Top 10 3B in baseball. You can upgrade from him, but the position is basically a wasteland across the league and the options to do so are pretty much limited to Bregman, Bichette, and Suarez (unless you believe in one of the Japanese imports). Shaw's easily a starter on most teams. However, even if Shaw is the everyday starter, he's going to need days off and injuries are always a possibility. BJ Murray is pretty much the only person on the farm who *could* man the bench role, but his ceiling is limited and he needs more development. There's currently no one on the roster who seems like they could be a competent backup, either. Someone like Paul DeJong seems to make sense as someone who can handle 3B with a bit of pop, but yeah, this is a really thin crop if you're hunting for bench candidates.

On the one hand, the market for relief pitching is a bit ludicrous at the moment. On the other hand, damnit Cubs, do something.

This FO is fantastic at scouting relief pitchers so long as those pitchers never played for the Astros.

I misread it at first too, but he said Phil, i.e. Philadelphia.

Great job, now he'll visit the Springfield Mystery Spot and will never be seen again.

Yet.

Gotta admit, your slow turn into "somewhat optimistic Bears poster" has been one of the pleasant surprises of the season.

Thank you all for proving my point. Let's not take this into putting people into timeout territory, shall we? Enough with the personal attacks.

I hate slow stretches of the offseason. The sniping and mindless arguing are almost as bad around here as it is during losing streaks.

I admittedly have to disagree. And this coming from someone who pooh-poohed the pick when it was made. My issue with Kepley was his draft profile was an OF who was heavily reliant on contact and speed. However, he showed enough in-game power in his major league debut to suggest he might be more than another Brett Bateman. I can buy him as a Top 5 guy in this organization.

Stuff, consistency, and durability. He's pitched 160+ IP each season since 2021 and posted 3+ fWAR in each of those seasons. I think it's best to think about Cease like Jon Lester when he was signed to a six year deal going into the 2015 season. The hope was that his production in the first half of the contract would offset the decline in the back half of his deal, and Lester delivered that in spades, even though he started to decline in 2017 and was next to worthless at the end of the deal. You're pretty much banking on a comparable result with Cease, with the added benefit of Cease is a bit younger than Lester was in 2015.

The problem with that presumption is that Taillon is performing well enough to merit a team in contention giving up assets to acquire him. If Taillon is good enough to merit trade interest, I don't think the Cubs will want to trade him, especially given how injuries to the rotation sunk the team going into the playoffs.

I kinda like it and kinda hate it. On the one hand, he's a guy with a year of control and the price tag is seemingly not outrageous, so the risk is relatively low. He's over two years out from TJS and he's apparently fully recovered from his shoulder injury, plus he seems like a bounceback candidate in 2026 for his contract year. Alcantara feels like a slight overpay, but not to the point where I'd immediately say no. On the other hand, shoulder injuries are always messy and he's never pitched more than 150 IP in a season going back to his minors days. This team is going to have a bunch of guys with checkered injury histories in the rotation over the course of 2026 (Horton, Boyd, Wiggins, Steele) and I feel like adding another to that mix wouldn't be the best idea, especially if the Cubs think he's the TOR guy they need. Put another way, if you told me the Cubs would walk away from this offseason with Bubic/Cease, Bubic/Imai, or even Bubic/King, I'd do this deal. If it's instead something like Bubic/Woodruff, I'd be disappointed.

Me reading the lineup: Me reading the rotation:

I get the sense we'll see Caissie/Alcantara traded in the offseason. PCA and Happ are locks for next season and I think the Cubs will want to keep Seiya around, so my guess is the Cubs will sniff around for a corner OF after Tucker makes it clear he's going elsewhere. Maybe Taylor Ward or Jo Adell? They could also go dumpster diving for someone like Refsnyder if they want to take that approach.

The reason I don't think the Cubs will go into Opening Day with Caissie or Alcantara as a starter is this exact uncertainty. Put another way, does anyone here think Caissie or Alcantara will outperform Happ or Suzuki in terms of WAR in 2026, or 2027, for that matter?

Oh, come on.

We'd noticed that there had been duplicate threads in transactions and the main forum, particularly at the deadline, and the decision was made to merge the two to make life easier for everyone so you wouldn't have to jump back and forth between threads or figure out where a new topic belonged. As far as I can tell, you're the first person to notice this!

I edited the thread title just in case, so, *shrug*

The hard part for Shota is, what team is going to be willing to pay the draft/international bonus pool penalty to sign him if he declines? My gut is, if he declines, he probably heads back to Japan.

Weren't there discussions about how he seemed ticketed for 1B due to defensive issues? If he can at least hack it at 3B, then I'd have some interest, depending on what the SP trade market looks like and how other teams view Matt Shaw. The Cubs wouldn't lose a draft pick in signing Murakami, and if they can fine-tune his approach, then it might be worth exploring. If he's 1B/OF only, then hard pass.

I hate that every hinky/weird play in sports for the foreseeable future will come with the nagging thought of, "I wonder if this will be Exhibit A at a criminal trial for illegal gambling in a few years?"

Wasn't that just a sour grapes leak from the Commanders camp when Johnson stayed with the Lions?

I saw him as a defensive tweener type and was skeptical about how his contact profile and power would translate to the pros. I admittedly was a bit all over the map on that draft, but leading up to the draft I was leaning in favor of one of the college catchers, James Tibbs, or Christian Moore. For the record, I was happy with Cam Smith when he was selected.

More a vibe than anything else as to Caissie/Alcantara. Note I didn't say the same about Ballesteros, who was the first to get the call when there was an opening. He acquitted himself well, so I think he'll stay in the system in 2026, even if it's to work on catching at Iowa. Injuries definitely derailed Caissie and Alcantara, but with the Cubs in win-now mode, it didn't seem like there was a priority on getting them playing time, even when Tucker's calf was mooing. I could see a world where the Cubs get middling starter like Refsnyder or Yaz as a corner OF backup plan and letting Caissie and/or Alcantara sink or swim, but this isn't a team that can afford to give 300 plate appearances to a corner OF who will likely struggle in adjusting to major league pitching.