Outshined_One

This upcoming draft has been pegged for awhile as being really good at QB. Williams won the Heisman last season and would have been in the conversation for #1 overall if he had been able to declare last season. We might get a pop-up 1.1 pick at QB in 2025 simply because the field doesn't look that great right now.

One thing that will merit attention this offseason is Fields' contract. His 2024 cap hit is apparently in the neighborhood of $6m. Putting that in perspective using 2023 numbers, that would put him squarely in between Taylor Heinicke (#29) and Mitch Trubisky (#30) in terms of QB salary, and just a shade ahead of guys like Andy Dalton and Tyrod Taylor. If we assume the Bears are going QB in the first round of the draft, I'm unsure how comfortable they would be just letting that QB be anointed the opening day starter. CJ Stroud has been phenomenal this year, but Stroud undeniably is an outlier. So, considering the rest of the team seems like it is on the cusp of being pretty darn good, would the Bears bring back Fields in that situation considering (a) his cap hit would be relatively minimal; (b) how unlikely it is that the Bears would find a reasonably priced free agent QB who could outperform Fields' likely production; and (c) the possibility that there isn't much of a trade market for Fields? I'm mostly convinced that Fields isn't the long term answer for this team, but I also think it would be sincerely unreasonable to expect someone like Williams or Maye to lead this team to 10+ wins next season. Bringing Fields back might be an acceptable option in the situation where they take a QB at 1.1.

That would be what a well-run organization would do, yes. But this is the Bears we're talking about here.

It's kind of fascinating watching the CFP and bowl season play out from the QB2/QB3 perspective in the draft. Maye and Daniels both *should* be the 2nd and 3rd QBs off the board, but with Penix and JJ taking the spotlight in their games, both have improved their stock and it can be easy to see teams falling in love with either because of their intangibles/leadership/winning when it matters. I could see 5 QBs taken in the first round at the rate things are going. That's always fun.

Oh, I'm aware, and I'm still in the "Take Caleb Williams at #1" camp, particularly given the state of next year's QB options in the 2025 draft. Buuuuuuut, my threshold for trading out of #1 has lowered a bit over the last few weeks. Fields might never be more than an overall decent QB who hits occasional splash plays, and that's why they should try for better with Williams, but I've backed off from "only for a Ricky Williams haul" with these last few games.

Depends on if they retain Getsy, but if so, it's fait accompli.

My dad went on a tear about the Bears trading the Panthers pick for additional picks/players to help Fields and the defense during the second half of today's game. Last week I would have shouted that down. Today, I only argued against it staunchly.

I kind of wish there were a way to keep Flus on as DC, but hire someone new as HC. I'm simultaneously impressed and disgusted as the fact that Flus' chosen DC got the boot early in the season, but the Bears' young defensive players have continued to grow and develop to the point where the team has a playoff-caliber defense from a talent and production standpoint. On the one hand, it's impressive to see how Flus managed to save what could have been an abject disaster, but it's also disgusting that this all stemmed from Flus' inability to hire competent and qualified people who aren't apparent HR nightmares. I have zero faith in Flus' managerial skills and abilities, but he clearly is a high quality coordinator who got over-promoted.

You did good.

In the Carolina pick falls to 3 scenario (and the Bears not jumping ahead of them), I guess the question would depend on combine and workouts. If someone makes a definitive case to be the third best QB behind Williams and Maye, I think you'd still have to give strong consideration to taking that person with the #3, especially if they're unlikely to make it to the Bears' second first round pick. Also, while I'm firmly set in the "draft a QB with the Carolina pick", I'm also on the fence as to the trade Justin/keep Justin question, regardless of what happens with draft order. I think the team ends up keeping him because he won't be worth a whole lot in the trade market and his 2024 salary would be much lower than what a good quality bridge QB would want. Moreover, I don't want Bagent as the opening day starting QB unless the team puts him in a Six Million Dollar Man program and he comes out of the offseason with a literal cannon for an arm.

I've come around on the notion that 90% of slap fights around here tend to resolve themselves once everyone sobers up.

Look on the bright side, Ginnie could kick the bucket and the team could get sold to a competent ownership group in the offseason as a result.

As I slowly get up to speed on this class, it's nice to see Brecht isn't quite a Samardzija "less miles on the arm, but more work to do" type since he's apparently given up football to focus solely on baseball. Plus I tend to be a sucker for cold weather college pitchers, so he's right up my alley. Sold!

I've said it before, but my main concern with trading out of #1 overall is that next year's draft does not look good from a QB perspective. Things can change in a year, but I don't like the odds that the 2025 class will be better than the 2024 class given how things stand now. If you want to keep Fields, you damn well better be sure it's the right call, especially if Williams and/or Maye turn out to be studs.

It wasn't just that Fred was active, it's that most of us who've been on this site since the early days met Fred in person, and some of us on multiple occasions. He made the effort to get to know all of us and he really was an incredibly sweet and knowledgeable person. He kept a TON of personal stats and weird splits, which was unusual back in the early 2000s, so it was neat to see him post them periodically. On top of everything else, he stubborn as all get out. During the dark years, he would start Game Threads and be the only person posting in those threads for 3+ pages. He would also have hilarious swear word substitutes that would get him grief. The man had habits, and he kept to them. It's why we named the forum for him after he passed away. I've been tempted to write something for the site regarding NSBB history for those of you newcomers who are interested. There have been some legitimately weird and entertaining things that's happened here over the past 20+ years. My work schedule probably won't allow for it, but I wouldn't be surprised to find out others would be interested in contributing.

I could understand this sort of attitude if Soto was on the FA market and just went for something like 10/500. He's just one player, albeit a really good one, and his decline at the plate and in the field is inevitable. With Ohtani, though, how do you properly value a guy who can be both one of the best hitters in baseball AND a TORP pitcher? Even if he declines into a decent hitter and a decent pitcher (assuming health), you're still getting a guy who produces on the mound and at the plate. Oddly enough, I can buy the argument that he's still underpaid over the life of his contract, even taking into account the fact that he won't pitch for another year.

Sure, why not?

Did anyone actually work today? It's a Friday in December, so I doubt it, but this is one of the dumbest and most hilarious stories in recent memory.

For once, I can't take credit for messing with a thread title. Alas.

Welcome!

Another name I discounted way back in the day. Points to you on the comp.

The stuff is there for him to be a dominant major leaguer, but he has the triple whammy of control problems, being a likely relief pitcher in the majors, and having a long line of guys ahead of him for spots in the pen in 2024. Injuries happen and bullpens are weird, so it's possible, but, as far as my opinion goes, he's not a personal favorite at the moment.

I'm all in favor of dealing from your strength, but this is the sort of deal that would have opened up multiple holes in the Cubs' 2024 and 2025 rotation and bullpen.

I don't mind contractual tripwires, but there literally is no contract in play here. This isn't about ensuring teams hold up their ends of the bargain, but instead it's a negotiating ploy meant to keep teams from posturing and leveraging against him to (in theory) maximize his contract. The problem is, Ohtani's approach to free agency injected an element of hostility into his negotiations, to the point where teams are incentivized to engage in bizarre theatrics and cloak and dagger levels of secrecy. So far as we know, he hasn't required teams to sign a non-disclosure agreement or non-disparagement agreement; this is just Ohtani making threats to teams based on some perceived nebulous invasion of privacy where no privacy can realistically be expected. Again, he's entitled to handle his negotiations the way he wants, and I hope he gets the money he deserves, but that doesn't immunize him from criticism in how he's handling these negotiations.

See also: FLICK