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UMFan83

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Everything posted by UMFan83

  1. UMFan83
    With a White C of course
  2. UMFan83
    Thought this was interesting....this is a list of the year each team last played a road (not neutral) playoff game 2011: ATL, BAL, CIN, DEN, DET, HOU, NO, NYG, PIT 2010: GB, NYJ, SEA 2009: ARI, DAL, MIN, PHI 2008: IND, SD 2007: JAC, TEN, WAS 2006: KC, NE 2005: CAR 2004: STL 2002: CLE, SF, TB 2001: OAK 2000: MIA 1999: BUF 1994: CHI
  3. UMFan83
    Henry Melton made the Pro Bowl? Hmm ok
  4. UMFan83
    That has nothing to do with his huge drop off on punt returns. He's a returner. History tells us those guys are flashes in the pan and do not last. He also hasn't taken anything resembling a step up as a receiver and probably should have been the guy released this week. If anything I was surprised at this mini-resurance in 2010-2011. Most stud returners have a 2-3 year shelf life at most
  5. UMFan83
    Usually when a team has top 5 units in 2 of the 3 phases they are a better than .500 team. Yes if the D isn't perfect they are screwed but they numbers bear out that most of the time the defense is really really good, good enough for a win. Go look at football outsiders again and find out how many times in the last 5 years a top 5 defense has finished over .500 regardless of the other 2 units. I don't know for a fact what you'll find but I'm guessing you will see that almost all of them did.
  6. UMFan83
    I just realized that because of the Packers needing a win for the bye, the infamous referee screw job in Seattle has effected our season in a positive way.
  7. UMFan83
    I'm not sure how Minnesota even has a better % odds. Bears should be favored to beat Detroit, Green Bay with something to play for should be favored to beat Minnesota. Obviously I don't know what all feeds into that % equation but on face value, I'd say I like the Bears chances. Well Minnesota has a 45% chance of making the playoffs and most of that is tied into the scenario of winning against GB. Lets say they have a 2% chance of making it if they lose (the Bears, Cowboys and Giants would have to lose I believe - the Cowboys so that they wouldn't win the division and push the Redskins into the WC picture), that would mean they are giving the Vikings a 43% chance of beating the Packers in Minnesota. I don't know if you see those accuscore projects that often, but a 57-43 spread in winning odds is pretty big, especially when the 43% if the home team, and a home team with a distinct HFA. The Bears will probably be favored by accuscore at most by a 53-47 margin, but probably close to a 52 or 51% favorite. So then add that to the 43% chance that the Vikings win, and it makes sense that the Bears would only be around 31% chance to make the playoffs despite the fact that Bears over Lions and Packers over Vikings would be the most realistic result.
  8. UMFan83
    Espn.coms playoff predictor projects the Bears to claim the 6th seed despite the Vikings having a better % odds of making the playoffs.
  9. UMFan83
    Until yesterday the Bears were on a 3 game losing streak, losing to the Seahawks, Vikings and Packers. After beating the Bears, those teams have gone a combined 6-0 and outscored their opponents by a combined score of 264-65 (average score of 44-11) Seattle: 58-0 vs. Arizona 50-17 @ Buffalo 42-13 vs. San Francisco Minnesota: 36-22 @ St. Louis 23-6 @ Houston Green Bay: 55-7 vs. Tennessee Making me feel slightly better, the Bears only lost those 3 games by a combined score of 65-44 (average of 22-15)
  10. UMFan83
    Not arguing that the offense isn't horrible or that the Cardinals aren't a crap team but statistically the Cardinals defense is above average.
  11. UMFan83
    Trib says there's a decent chance Urlacher plays next week. It would be nice to see him in a Bears uni again and I think he could still help if he's healthy enough to play.
  12. UMFan83
    Welp I said at the start of this thread that the Giants losing at Baltimore would be the biggest help to us this week and I still think it was although I really kind of expected Minnesota to lose in Houston grr. Anyways considering how bad we've been and how bad the offense has continued to look its good to be in a relatively simple clinching position for next week. I put our odds at about 33% but that's fine.
  13. UMFan83
    2 lines of thinking for me SF is 10-3-1. GB is 11-4. Seattle is 9-5 If SF wins tonight they are 11-3-1 and need a win over Arizona to clinch a bye. Meaning the Packers would need a win over Minnesota and a SF loss to Arizona to get the bye. If Seattle wins tonight, GB only needs a win over Minnesota OR a SF Loss to Arizona to clinch. In the first scenario the Packers would know they have to win and get help to win so they couldn't hope to fall into a bye if they falter. However everyone associated with GB would know the chances of Arizona beating SF are slim. Mccartney started Flynn a year ago with stuff on the line so who knows how he would approach that situation. I think the better option is for a Seattle win.
  14. UMFan83
    Frustrating as it is to say I'm impressed. Can't see them losing in the dome to clinch a playoff spot but who knows.
  15. UMFan83
    On point B. None of those 3 seem winnable to me, but honestly, I'd rather play at GB than Seattle or SF. In fact that would be my order of preference. Eh, I'm going with the fact the Bears lost at SF without Cutler. Maybe that's a difference. And the Bears could/should have beaten Seattle already. Gotta go on the road somewhere, rather not go a place they never win. Yeah its really like choosing how you prefer to die. I respect your reasoning. I just feel like GB is the opponent we are most familiar with and I can't get over the feeling that every single time we play them I feel like we could have won. SF embarrassed us cutler or not. They abused our defense and scored at will. The last time we saw Seattle they scored on a 97 yard drive and an 80 yard drive on back to back possessions to beat us. Also they are undefeated at home and Seattle is said to have one of if not the biggest HFAs in the NFL.
  16. UMFan83
    That actually seems entirely possible. Yeah. Basically asking 3 favorites (Giants/Skins/Packers will all be favored) and probably a 50-50 game (Bears at Detroit is a toss up, imo) to go the right way. Come on a 50-50 game? You know the Bears are currently up 28-6 on the team that just beat the Lions 38-10 in the same venue 7 days prior? I know the Lions have some bad blood with the Bears and the game is in Detroit, but there is no way that is a 50-50 game. The Lions can definitely win without question but its more of a 60-40 game in favor of the Bears.
  17. UMFan83
    On point B. None of those 3 seem winnable to me, but honestly, I'd rather play at GB than Seattle or SF. In fact that would be my order of preference.
  18. UMFan83
    lol...the Giants wouldnt be eliminated if they lost today....but to get in, they would need the following scenario next week... Giants beat Philly and Skins beat Dallas and Packers beat Vikings and Lions beat Bears
  19. UMFan83
    i think minnesota has to lose Yes. Or two Seattle losses, two Giants losses, and a Dallas loss next week. Right? Dallas doesnt matter because they have 7 losses. The Giants will also have 7 with a loss (losing 24-7 right now) If the Bears win and finish 10-6, and the Giants continue losing this week, the only teams that they need to worry about are the VIkings (vs. GB) and Seahawks (vs. SF and STL). That said, the Seahawks are not going to lose 2 home games to finish the year, so all we're worrying about are the Vikings.
  20. UMFan83
    Ryan Linley is statistically dismantling Cutler, and yet Linley has looked like garbage mostly. Linley 13-22 113 yards 0 TD 0 INT 73.3 RAT Cutler 1-11 30 yards 0 TD 0 INT 39.6 RAT
  21. UMFan83
    i think minnesota has to lose Bears can get in with 2 wins plus 2 seattle losses vs. SF and STL but Seattle is 6-0 at home and they are both in SEA.
  22. UMFan83
    lmao
  23. UMFan83
    I'd feel a lot better about the Bears playoff chances if the Vikings/GB game was in GB and the Bears/Lions game was in Chicago. Would be very nice to have our scenarios whittled down to Bears win + Vikings loss. I guess the loser of tonights SF/Sea game could add some additional scenarios to the mix.
  24. UMFan83
    Seattle beats us in close game and then scores 50 points in next 2 games. Minnesota beats us by 7 and then wins the next 2 games on the road by a combined 31 points. Green Bay beats us by a possession and then wins 55-7 the next week. What the [expletive] are we doing to these teams.
  25. UMFan83
    Go Pats and Broncos. I hope the Texans blow a bye because of this BS.
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