The realistic calculus for ND is really a tough needle to thread. -Bama can't lose more than 1 game, so there's no way ND passes them. -Assuming Miami beats VA and PItt, ND cannot pass them. -Georgia being only one spot up on ND leaves a sliver of hope for ND(unjustifiably) being slotted ahead of an 11-2 Georgia. So Bama wins SEC title over GA, preferrably in a blowout. Miami wins ACC title over Clemson, again, preferrably in a blowout. -Oklahoma absolutely needs to lose 1, and if they lose to WV, I think the Big 12 is done. If they lose to TCU in the Big 12 title game, I think ND sneaks by. -2 loss Ohio State or undefeated Wisconsin will absolutely finish ahead of them. To stay ahead of Big Ten, Michigan needs to beat at least one of them. Ohio State holds all tiebreakers but a tie with just Michigan, so essentially they are in the Big Ten title game with over Illinois and MSU or PSU winning their gimme games. 3 loss Ohio State will not get ahead of ND, and I'm not sure 1 loss Wisconsin does either. -USC and MSU winning out certainly helps. -PSU, the Pac12, UCF, or Michigan will not pass them. So their best reasonable case is getting compared to 2 loss Georgia who beat them, 2 loss Clemson, a 2 loss Big 12 champ, 3 loss Auburn, and 3 loss Ohio State for 2 spots.