Ok, so Louisville has one good win on the road (Villanova, #25 in Pomeroy) and Duke has one good win on the road (Purdue #16 in Pomeroy). They both have pretty good wins at home or neutral. I'll make my cutoff the top 40 teams in Pomeroy's ratings. The cutoff is just random. Louisville has beaten Pitt (#3) Kentucky (#20) UAB (#40) Duke has beaten Georgetown (#9) Xavier (#15) Davidson (#36) Duke has 6 other wins in the top 100. Louisville has 2 other wins in the top 100. Louisville lost to Minnesota on a neutral court. Duke lost to Michigan in Ann Arbor. Through all of that, it is pretty close. But, you would be hard pressed to say Louisville has a better resume. THEN, we add in Louisville's horrible loss to a terrible Western Kentucky team and to UNLV at home.