Probably nobody...because they're already 11 games under .500 and I'm pretty sure nobody here thinks this is a team expected to go 11 games over .500 over 2.5 months. So what you are saying is the model isn't so great for the Cubs? No. I'm saying the Cubs have underperformed their pythag and their pythag is a better indication of how they will play going forward than their record is. If you flip a coin heads ten times in a row, tails isn't any more likely to come on the 11th than it already was. lol, what a shitty analogy. you realize that a baseball team losing 10 games in a row isn't blind luck/chance in the way that flipping a coin is, right?* *pretty sure you don't.