Results-oriented fallacy. You don't judge a decision after the fact, you judge it on the moment you make it. I'm not denying that it's theoretically possible the buyout could pay off, but that doesn't make it equal or better for the team. Again, if I bet $100k to win $75k on a coin flip, it's *always a bad bet*, even though I might win money off it. Similarly, certeris parabis (I never spell that right and won't look it up, even though looking it up would have taken less time than typing this caveat), player opt-outs are always worse for the team than identical deals without the player opt-out. Anyone who thinks that A is approximately equal to B because of the balance of possibilities is just a wrongy-wrong wrong head. Yes, no opt out clause is better than an opt out clause in 2 identical contracts. But how can you say the contract would be identical without the opt out? Maybe he would have taken an extra week or 2 to sign and some team would have drove up the price another $10M. The opt out is almost definitely going to be of no significance. Most likely he won't use it. But even if he does opt out in 3 years, they aren't losing "much" value. I would argue "much" is really "any", because I wouldn't want to sign a 33-34 year old David Price to a 4 year $124M contract no matter how good he is for the next 3 years.