So why not just wait and cut him when he sucks? Because first, you have to waste a year finding out he's terrible. Either he's hurt and you have a bench player all year or he's just terrible in your lineup. Between that and the dead money after cutting him you could very well lose more than 27 million. But you said yourself the most likely scenario is that he's going to be worth around $10m next year. Sure, he could get hurt (and probably will at some point). The guy you acquire could get hurt too. The likely scenario is he's worth $10m next year. If you only have to pay a small fraction and/or you can get something more valuable than pitching project, sure, go right ahead. But there's no point in paying half his money and getting filler in return right now. They have several other actual need positions to fill at the same time. Get production out of RF, 1B and 2B, improve your pitching, and let Colvin be Soriano's insurance for next year.