CubColtPacer

The Cubs try to take the series from the Cardinals as two pitchers return to oppose their former teams. The Cubs haven't seen much of Wellemeyer, so hopefully they use a good approach and knock him around like they did Lohse. Sunday night game, so let's show the nation that it's the Cubs division to take! A win puts them back in first place.

Apparently you haven't seen next offseason's free agent list. It's starting pitcher city. The Cubs have all five of their current rotation signed through 2009 plus some guys in AAA that have a shot to be considered. I seriously doubt the Cubs pick up any more starting pitching. Dempster is a free agent after the year.

I can understand why they don't use Gallagher. They need him to be fresh in case Marquis completely implodes tomorrow, and Gallagher is the only one in the bullpen (currently) that can throw 3+ innings if needed (I don't think Marshall can right now after a couple weeks of bullpen work). Marmol for 2 innings though? Simply inexcusable. It should have been Wuertz and Marshall to finish it out. Now, I don't think it's a decision that will have much long-term impact. Maybe the Cubs miss him tomorrow, maybe they don't. It's still a bad decision though.

I don't think I've ever seen Lilly throw this many curves, or see him work on the outside corner this much. He doesn't have much confidence in his fastball, and I can see why from some of the swings the Cardinals have gotten on it. Thankfully he's able to throw the curve for strikes today which has kept him afloat.

Lieber getting his first start against the Reds is not good news. He probably matches up with them worse than just about any team with all that left-handed thunder (remember that Lieber is one of those starters who has pretty big splits). I think he'll be fine against some other lineups, but he might struggle on Wednesday. I don't mind Lieber starting overall. I don't mind limiting Marshall's innings right now, because hopefully that will keep him healthy when a starter goes down. Gallagher as the long man though is something that he is just not suited for. Hopefully he can succeed anyway, but they really shouldn't have called him up to be a long-term reliever.

You scared me there. I was expecting Cubs place 3B Aramis Ramirez on the 15 day DL, Recall IF Eric Patterson from AAA Iowa. Yeah, nothing shocking about the real transaction. Im asuming they intend on starting Gallagher, or else they would have brought up Cotts or Ascenio if they needed a reliever. It's still possible that they have brought up Gallagher for a couple of days to eat some innings for a tired pen, then they'll shuttle him right back down. Just a lot of ways they can go right now, and it might depend on how deep Lilly and Marquis can go in the next couple of days to determine who is going to start. I'm not sure we can infer anything at this point.

Who said every Hoosier fan hated the hire? Most people were either slightly disapproving, or reserved but willing to give him a chance. The ones who were willing to give him a chance then became more excited as he did good things for the program, and then turned on him when he betrayed their trust.

Hopefully Gallagher as the long man only is for the next couple of days while the bullpen is tired, and he either becomes a starter in Chicago or Iowa again. It will be interesting to see who is slated to pitch in Hill's next turn, if it's Lieber, Marshall, or Gallagher.

You can criticize Lou's handling of the team all you want. Calling him a huge douchebag is entirely inappropriate. Yeah, namecalling is wrong, I shouldn't call him a douchebag, but it's the best way I could think of summing up the way he's acted this year. Saying he's acting like a classic macho jock who refuses to be questioned and publically calls out others for not being the same macho-headed jock doesn't quite have the same ring to it. I'll agree that Lou can be a little too macho/tough guy sometimes. I just think he's a better manager than a lot of people give him credit for. Really, I think all fans wind up hating their managers eventually. Well he managed alot better last year, but hes overmanaging alot this year. I think he overmanaged just as much last year, but it's pretty easy to forget. When we were losing in the first two months last year, there were lots of threads bashing him for running out of players in extra inning games because of using so many bench players in one inning. Floyd, Jones, Ward, or Pie would usually get pinch-hit for in the later innings against a left-hander, even if they were the announced as the pinch-hiter. Pie (when he was in the majors) would come in as a defensive replacement every game the Cubs were up, usually in a double switch. The bench was used frequently last year, but I think the perception becomes that Lou is managing more this year because the bench players are better and therefore don't have as clear of roles on this years team. Last year, everybody knew that Pie was the defensive replacement, Ward was the big hitter, Fontenot was the pinch-hitter when you led off an inning, Murton was the player who pinch-hit when a left-hander came in, and then you had the backup catcher. After a while, fans accepted those roles for those players, and the comfort of the routine set in. This year, there's a lot more options available to Lou, so it seems like he's pulling the strings more even when he's really not.

Even though this is an hour later, I'll address this. Marmol was only going to be able to pitch 1 inning tonight. Knowing that, it doesn't matter that much which inning he threw. Both pitchers were going to have to shut down the Cardinals in order to win the game. Plus the 5-6-7 hitters were coming up for the Cardinals in the 10th. It makes more sense to hope Fox can shut them down there, and try to save Marmol's 1 inning for the 2-3-4 in the order. No it doesn't. Unless they made a new rule Marmol is allowed to pitch more than one inning. Sure, it's possible for Marmol to throw more than 1 inning. He threw 20 pitches 2 days before and 28 pitches the day before though. I am glad that Lou isn't willing to completely destroy his arm by throwing him out there for multiple innings with a tired arm just to have a slightly bigger chance of winning 1 game. The risk of his future health is just too great, and I'm happy that our current manager has limits on to how far to stretch his arms, unlike the previous regime.

Dusty's problems can be somewhat neutralized by a G.M. who doesn't give him the types of players he wants. He still would have problems with leaving pitchers out too long (which I think he has been ok at not doing this year), but only give him certain players on the roster and most of his craziness doesn't occur. Yost is a 1 man wrecking machine. He's already done things with pitchers like Gagne, Sheets, and Gallardo this season that Dusty would only do at his very worst. Not to mention that I think Yost has to be the worst bullpen manager I have ever seen. He consistently managed to put his worst relievers into the biggest situations last year. As much as Dusty has the potential to wreck a franchise, I don't think it's particularly close.

Regarding Marmol, you try to win the game you are playing and worry about the future after the game. We have some guys in minors who could have came up and made a spot start if Marquis had been needed last night. Also, this goes back to the whole Marshall thing. Had Lou let him face more than 1 guy, he could have pushed everybody back in the bullpen, but no for some reason Marshall is only allowed to face a lefty. Same goes for the Cedeno/Fontenot thing, it was a product of Lous bad decision making that made this a neccessity. I might agree with you on the general point about Marmol, although when I think about the specific game last night I still think I have more faith in Fox/Marmol than Marmol/Marquis. As average as Marquis is as a starter, he has proven to be really bad out of the pen during his career. As for Marshall, the question remains. Do you leave Lieber in to try to get out of the inning? Do you double-switch when Marshall comes into the game? (which isn't the best part of the batting order for it. The Cubs had just finished with the 5 spot in the order, so there really isn't anybody to double-switch unless you are willing to take Fukudome out in order for Marshall to pitch an extra inning, which I'm not). Those are the only two ways that Marshall could have avoided only pitching to 1 batter, because you had to pinch-hit for him with a runner on. That early in the game I dont think pinch hitting for him would be neccessary. It was the 7th inning with the Cubs down by a run. I don't think you can be throwing away chances to score when you're down that late in the game. I was thinking it was an inning or 2 earlier, but heres another question. Why do you bring in Wuertz as the 1st guy out of the pen, instead of our long man Lieber? You could have went with Lieber and Marshall as combo long men, and maybe saved our middle relief for later in the game like normal. Lieber is not used to coming in with runners on base. He is a starter who is used to a little margin for error and being able to slowly settle in, and he is hittable. Bringing him into a bases loaded, 2 out situation isn't a good situation for him.

FIP is a projection stat. If we're using projections, we should use something more accurate than a small sample. Like all the projections that say Marshall is better than Dempster or Marquis. FIP is designed to work with small samples..that's the point of using it over something like ERA. The larger sample we get, the more actual production becomes accurate, and the more we can rely on things like ERA. At this point of the season, FIP is very valuable to show how lucky pitchers have been so far. The numbers clearly show that Hill has been very lucky so far that the control problems haven't resulted in very bad numbers. That doesn't mean you can project that sample onto the rest of the season unless you have reason to believe that peripherals like walks and strikeouts will remain the same. With Hill, unless those mechanics change, and unless that walk rate goes way down, that "third best ERA" will not continue for long. I'm not arguing against the people who have said that Hill just needs a little while to change his mechanics and he should be fine. He's a great pitcher. What I am arguing against is the people who said he's been fine so far. He simply hasn't been. He's been terrible, and he's gotten bailed out by much higher than average luck.

Regarding Marmol, you try to win the game you are playing and worry about the future after the game. We have some guys in minors who could have came up and made a spot start if Marquis had been needed last night. Also, this goes back to the whole Marshall thing. Had Lou let him face more than 1 guy, he could have pushed everybody back in the bullpen, but no for some reason Marshall is only allowed to face a lefty. Same goes for the Cedeno/Fontenot thing, it was a product of Lous bad decision making that made this a neccessity. I might agree with you on the general point about Marmol, although when I think about the specific game last night I still think I have more faith in Fox/Marmol than Marmol/Marquis. As average as Marquis is as a starter, he has proven to be really bad out of the pen during his career. As for Marshall, the question remains. Do you leave Lieber in to try to get out of the inning? Do you double-switch when Marshall comes into the game? (which isn't the best part of the batting order for it. The Cubs had just finished with the 5 spot in the order, so there really isn't anybody to double-switch unless you are willing to take Fukudome out in order for Marshall to pitch an extra inning, which I'm not). Those are the only two ways that Marshall could have avoided only pitching to 1 batter, because you had to pinch-hit for him with a runner on. That early in the game I dont think pinch hitting for him would be neccessary. It was the 7th inning with the Cubs down by a run. I don't think you can be throwing away chances to score when you're down that late in the game.

I also thought Kerry Wood should have hit for himself and gone out there again in the tenth. Double-switching Henry in there for him was really not smart. Wood had thrown few pitches and looked great out there. And Marshall's usage this year is beyond stupid. So frustrating. That's probably what surprised me most about last night. I know they're being careful with Wood, but that's really careful. In some ways I appreciated that they're doing all they can to save his arm, but I really think he should be able to throw 20+ pitches on back to back days. Wood didn't even need to hit for himself to pitch a 2nd inning. His spot didn't come up until the 11th.

Regarding Marmol, you try to win the game you are playing and worry about the future after the game. We have some guys in minors who could have came up and made a spot start if Marquis had been needed last night. Also, this goes back to the whole Marshall thing. Had Lou let him face more than 1 guy, he could have pushed everybody back in the bullpen, but no for some reason Marshall is only allowed to face a lefty. Same goes for the Cedeno/Fontenot thing, it was a product of Lous bad decision making that made this a neccessity. I might agree with you on the general point about Marmol, although when I think about the specific game last night I still think I have more faith in Fox/Marmol than Marmol/Marquis. As average as Marquis is as a starter, he has proven to be really bad out of the pen during his career. As for Marshall, the question remains. Do you leave Lieber in to try to get out of the inning? Do you double-switch when Marshall comes into the game? (which isn't the best part of the batting order for it. The Cubs had just finished with the 5 spot in the order, so there really isn't anybody to double-switch unless you are willing to take Fukudome out in order for Marshall to pitch an extra inning, which I'm not). Those are the only two ways that Marshall could have avoided only pitching to 1 batter, because you had to pinch-hit for him with a runner on.

BTW, their FIP numbers so far this year: Zambrano: 3.31 Dempster: 4.34 Marquis: 4.54 Lilly: 4.63 Hill: 5.89

Hill-agreed, although Hill would have struggled with his control any day you threw him, the coaching staff didn't do him any favors. So his problems last night weren't all on the coaching staff, but they definitely share the blame. Marshall-agreed, although what do you do? Do you let Lieber try to finish the inning there? 4 out of the 5 previous balls hit off Lieber were hit decently hard. It was about time for him to go, and then Marshall's spot came up that next inning. As far as Cedeno and Fontenot, Fontenot came into the game to save the bullpen. Lou decided Howry needed to go 2 innings, and he could have only gone 1 if they had left Cedeno in the game because Cedeno was locked into the 9 spot, while Fontenot could go into the 4 spot. I agree with Lou on this one. They needed Howry at that point to go 2 innings with what they had left behind him in the bullpen. I would have agreed with it even if it didn't work, but it did. Howry pitched 2 strong innings, and Fontenot got on base twice in 3 tries last night. If you bring in Marmol, you're just creating a worse situation down the road. They didn't want to use Marmol for more than one inning last night, so if you bring in Marmol to relieve Fox and he gets out of the 11th, now you have to use Marquis in the 12th and mess up your rotation. Leaving Fox in was the only course of action at that point. As far as Sori in LF, you had to see during the drills and fielding practice that his range was really poor right now. That was a really bad decision by Lou to leave him in there on Thursday.

Agreed. If you're going to put blame on the Cubs, they deserve it for trying to change his delivery slightly to make him quicker to home plate. It's silly to do that for any effective pitcher, and it's really silly to do that for a player like Hill. They basically washed away any confidence he had in his old delivery, and it's hard to return to it now after trying to practice the new one. Hill was always wild in big part because he had good stuff, and it's sometimes hard to locate it. Now he's wild IMO because his body isn't throwing consistently the same way. Each pitch is an adventure because he has no confidence in any delivery right now, and so he combines a bunch of different elements from different methods, which doesn't work. Note: In no way am I calling Rich Hill soft in this previous paragraph. It's human nature that when you try to change something that you have done for years, your body still wants to repeat what it has consistently done. Then if you don't have initial success with the new method, you start to wonder, and even if you're continuing to try the new method parts of the old method sneak in, which makes things even worse. It happens a lot to professional golfers who try to overhaul their swing. They need to completely forget about the new delivery, have him watch some video of the old delivery, and then send him down to the minors and just tell him to focus on repeating his mechanics and that performance doesn't matter, that he'll stay in pretty much no matter what until his pitch count is reached. Do that, and a couple of weeks from now I think Hill would be ready to go.

The way Lou handled Marquis at times last year, if Marquis had been walking guys at a pretty high rate for a couple weeks and had walked 4 guys in the first inning, Lou probably would have pulled him. I would agree with you that Lilly probably gets the chance to work out of it.

The bullpen will do very little for Hill or the Cubs. He would just be a wasted spot at the back of the pen, because the Cubs couldn't afford to bring him into any close game never knowing how his control will be. For Hill, he needs innings in order to find the mechanics he had last year and get practice at repeating them so that he can quickly return to form. If Hill is not going to get that in the Chicago rotation, he needs to be in the Iowa rotation.

With this quote, I would say it's a definite that Hill is gone: First off, Piniella is part of the problem for there being no bullpen because of his short leash on Hill the last 3 games. At the same time, they need to do whatever they can to get his mechanics straight, because with his current control he'll continue to need an abnormal number of balls in play to be caught in order to be effective, and this is not a situation where Rich can just flip a switch and have control again. What's very interesting is that Cubs.com said that Piniella hinted that it would be Marshall replacing Hill, with Eyre moving into Marshall's spot. I'd really like to know how they're going to stretch Marshall out quickly.

no, he hasn't. i don't think there's any doubt that he's out of the rotation...90% sure of that. and i'd say there's a very good chance he goes to AAA. he should have been left in for at least one more batter tonight. that's four starts in a row that lou has had a remarkably short leash on hill. it's as if it's 2005 and hill has never had success before. One more batter and the game might have been over in the first inning. the worst that would have happened is another walk and one more run. as it is, they lost anyway, ruined the bullpen in the process, and likely completely demoralized hill. leaving him for at least one more batter would have been the right thing to do. I would tend to agree with that. At least let him start the next batter. If he gets to 2-0, maybe you pull him. But the next batter was Izturis, and he cannot hurt you that badly, and also has been known to swing early in some situations. So maybe you get a lucky ground ball on a pitch just off the corner and get out of the inning. I still doubt Hill would make it more than into getting into the 4th tonight, but even those couple of innings might have made a big difference for his confidence level and for how much the bullpen was used.

Lilly vs. Lohse. The Cubs players have absolutely pounded Lohse during his career. Hopefully they can continue that tomorrow and even up the series.

This is as good of thread as any. Kobe Bryant has reportedly won the MVP award.