toonsterwu

I'd be awful stunned if Baltimore got into it unless the price really, really dropped. They seem pretty set against paying the years and money that it would cost to land a high level arm. Beyond that, they are really limited financially and have given every signal that they are going to give their younger-ish (I mean, it's not like Tyler Wilson/Mike Wright and others are really young) arms a shot. I mean, there's darkhorses out there that could conceivably emerge if the right situations happen. I don't expect it, but the Nationals and Yankees both could get in the mix if other things fall in place (furthermore, the Yankees can backload any money so that the short term burden won't be that bad). Still, gotta think the Dodgers/Cardinals are the favorites in this if they want to be. I do wonder if they might back away and go after a Leake/Chen/Iwakuma instead though.

I'm glad we didn't go there. I like Shark, and I think he bounces back, but I'm not too keen, as "fresh" as his arm is, on giving him 5 years at that AAV. I'm not too keen on Lackey overall, but I'd take Lackey at 2 years over that Shark deal. Good for him, though. Should be a good situation for him, and a team that could really use him, as the GIants staff has fallen apart in recent years.

I was noticeably wary when Chen came across to America a few years back (due to the reports that he lost velocity his last year in Japan), but now, I'm a believer that Chen is a very solid pitcher for a team. He's been miscast as essentially the "1" of the Orioles staff (well, Tillman started off as the "1" this past year), but Chen has been a very good pitcher for them. There was an article on fangraphs awhile back about Chen's ability to beat FIP because his wide speed variance (fastball in the low 90's, but can ramp it up a bit higher in the summer), changeup/slider in that low 80's range, and a curve in the low 70's range). His breaking balls are inconsistent, and his success is predicated off fastball location, so if that fastball ever started to degrade, that could be a world of hurt for him unless there is arsenal improvement (and I think Orioles fans would note that his overall arsenal is probably sharper than when he first came to the States). All that said, I'm going to be surprised if Chen signs early. Boras was talking 20 million AAV for Chen, and much as I like him, I don't think he's worth that unless there's a sudden market pressure creating an upswing post-Samardzija signing (I would, over the short term, gladly take Chen over Samardzija, though, as I think he'll be a more consistent arm). I'm also not hugely enthused with the idea of giving him a 4-5 year deal with an AAV in that range, and based on the offseason so far, I doubt Theo is going to do that and give up another pick. Now, if Chen is hanging around in the spring because Boras overplayed his hand, then I could see the Cubs jump in, if the price came down a bit.

Perfectly fine with this. I'm not that fond of John Lackey, but on a 2 year deal, vs. what the rest of the market might cost? That's great.

if he stays something like 2015 Harper? why not $400M? Hell, I'm not so sure 400 million wouldn't be the starting point if he performs anywhere close to what he did last year. It's probably going to be a 10+ year deal (albeit, probably with some sort of opt-out in there for him). By the time he's about to hit the market, the Yankees will have a lot of money off, or close to off, the books. It's not hard to figure they are going to go hard after Harper or Trout when they become available.

I'm not stunned the Diamondbacks made a big splash, but I am surprised that it was Greinke. I kept thinking that the Dodgers would win out in the end, but even they seem to be showing restraint (if the reports are correct, they gave 1 less year, and more than 50 million less). I'm still not sold this Diamondbacks team is a solid playoff caliber team, unless they are willing to go all-out and spend hard. They may compete for a spot, but you make this splash for an aging arm ... you're hoping to be in the hunt right away. I think they've got a lot more spending if they want to go to that point.

If Samardzija gets to 100 mil, I'd have an awful hard time being excited about that. It's certainly possible his agent is bluffing right now about a 100 mil deal on the table, but if it's at or around 90, 100 isn't impossible. A 5 year deal at 100 mil would be an awful lot for Samardzija. The first 2nd tier SP to come off the market may set the market for the other guys. Jordan Zimmerman was a bit in b/w that 1st and 2nd tier, but Samardzija is firmly in that 2nd tier. Still think one of the 2nd tier arms likely gets left hanging, and may come cheaper, but that might not be a gamble we can take.

http://www.21cpw.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/d1Z-thats-not-how-it-works-thats-not-how-any-of-this-works.jpg It's starting to look like it. Every pitcher that signs seems to be jacking up the price the ones still out there. whose price has gotten jacked up aside from a huge AAV rumor about greinke and a rumor about samardzija? zimmerman and price both got what was expected. Price & Zimmerman set the market price and it certainly jacked up Greinke and Samardzija (at least according to the rumors). Cueto looks like he's asking for more than most expected. If Samardzija gets $100 million, I would think Leake and Chen would try to get an extra few million. I tend to think the markets gone as expected so far, and thus, if boras is looking for 20 mil per year for chen, as some rumors indicated, then chen could be hanging around until spring.

Well, as I've noted elsewhere, I'm not too keen on most of the trade talks (Miller/Teheran), as I've said you can probably go bargain hunting this year and find similar production. Specifically, I am intrigued enough with Porcello/Miley/Joe Kelly (more intrigued with Porcello than the other two on talent, but Porcello has the cost issue to factor in) to want to ponder a trade. Part of that is because I do think the cost on those guys, if they are made available, might be cheaper than some of the rumored names out there, partly because of Boston's stocked rotation, and partly because, they are all, to an extent, coming off down years while still showing some levels of promise (Porcello/Kelly moreso than Miley). Now, I have been partial to Kelly for awhile, as I was always fascinated with him coming up as a power sinker guy, but he's got a big time live fastball and if you can find a mix between the groundball guy early in his career with the development of his arsenal, I think you can still find a mid-rotation arm. Porcello's an interesting case of a guy who probably got overpaid by Cherington, but really, has a good strong arsenal (would like to see him go back to the 2-seamer a tiny bit more) and I gotta think he can reverse that HR rate trend. Miley would be more a depth acquisition. Look, fundamentally, if any of these guys cost more than ... what's warranted (I don't know how to define that right now ... I'm not suggesting we part with Gleyber Torres in any deal for them, to put a name to it), then no. I'm just looking at who I perceive to be buy low candidates that might add good depth because for all the talk about a stable five after a FA signing ... what's the depth behind that? There really isn't much. If you can get say, a Joe Kelly, and he loses the battle for a rotation spot, you can plop him in the pen (where he might be better suited, and where many thought he would end up while coming up, until he showed a bit more development). To reframe, my first preference is to simply sign whatever arms we need. If they want 2 solid FA starters, great. If they want 1, and a couple bargain gambles to compete, okay. We can't really go into spring with just a FA signing and hoping for depth to emerge.

Clevenger's really a fine backup catcher/3rd catcher asset that can offer some offensive production. I get why the Orioles may feel like it's a waste when Trumbo could be non-tendered, but the Mariners supposedly had other offers as well, so giving up your 3rd catcher, having been screwed by Wieters decision, is probably an okay move. If they get something besides Trumbo, great move on their part if they only give up Clevenger.

Yeah, I can't see the Red Sox agreeing to that unless there are other assets involved. If early rumors were true, they aren't planning on moving Rodriguez anyways. Owens might be possible, but I doubt that. To be quite honest, if the price is right, I really do have some level of interest in Porcello/Miley/Kelly, perhaps as much interest as I would have in Miller/Teheran (partly because I think the former guys might be a tad cheaper than the latter guys in trade costs, as the Red Sox have a filled rotation). All in all, I think there's going to be a good 2nd tier arm waiting in early 2016 for a team, and I wouldn't mind one 2nd tier signing, maybe a depth move, and saving some money to see if there's a "bargain" (my current bet - the market seems pretty much expected - Zimmerman/Price haven't blown the doors away on expectations. If Boras really wants 20 mil/year for Wei Yin Chen, he may still be looking for a home next spring).

Interesting move. With the Orioles suddenly putting an offer out for O'Day and adding Trumbo, feels like Davis is gone. They can thank Wieters coming back and screwing up their plans (although to be fair, you give an offer, you have to keep in mind they might accept it, even if historically it doesn't happen that often). The Mariners didn't need Clevenger, but they needed to pawn off Trumbo, as DiPoto is simply not a fan. I guess this is a deal that makes sense for both sides.

My guess is both teams say no. Cheap, young pitching with Rodriguez's ceiling would be a nice asset for the Red Sox to put in, particularly since he showed well last year. Where are they going to put Schwarber? DH? They might have to slide Hanley there after this year if they can't move him. That said, Rodriguez isn't a lock as a "#2" type arm, and I'm not so sure the Cubs give up that offensive upside that Schwarber has shown he can definitely produce at unless it's for a bit more certainty.

I'm surprised that the Cardinals were in the game. That'd be a lot of money for that organization to shell out, and if they were heavily invested on this, sure feels like Heyward was a Plan B option for them. Maybe that helps Heyward leave (although if Olney's tweet is true, that could be somewhere else). As for Price/Red Sox - eh. I thought this was the most likely option for Price, as it fit. He can talk all he wants about comfort and fun, but like Sabathia, money still rules the day. Timing is everything, and Price got it just right, with the Red Sox needing an ace and bringing in a guy that traded for him, a guy that loves making big splashes, and a guy who was going to try and win in the short term. The Red Sox should be very, very good in the short term. We'll see, with the Red Sox greater resources, if Dombrowski can maintain a strong system. The Cubs seem to be all about depth. Okay. That was always a viable option of what was realistic this offseason. If so, I'd still call the Red Sox up and see if there's anything that can be struck between the two sides with the Red Sox extra arms. I figure Owens/Rodriguez are probably untouchable, Buchholz probably won't be moved, meaning Porcello/Kelly/Miley. I'd be somewhat interested in all three, dependent on what it would take (obviously, with Porcello, they'd have to shell out some cash, but you could end up getting ... Jordan ZImmerman performance for less ... or you could get last year. A roll of the dice, but the numbers are positive enough that if enough money is involved (not expecting a boatload, just some), I think it might be worth the gamble as a second pitcher).

I've got to think the Cubs were somewhat involved - there were enough rumors about the Cubs being in it makes it seem likely they at least called to get general parameters. All the talk by Zimmerman about him being Plan B for other clubs besides the Tigers makes me think that, initially, the Cubs are at least aiming higher, if only to feel out the market. As for the Tigers ... I like Zimmerman. I think the Tigers could probably cobble some pieces together to be competitive again soon, but I probably would've gone the rebuild route as it's somewhat hard for me to see that aging core holdiing the fort that much longer, at least, to keep a championship window open that much longer. The system seems to always get ranked low, but still seems able to crank out some intriguing assets. I don't see any sleeper guys like Wily Adames yet, but I don't follow them all that closely. I do like their arm depth, although admittedly, not a lot of exciting ceiling (I do like Burrows, and I still think Lewicki might be better than any other arm in that system). Perhaps Avila isn't allowed to rebuild. Contract is heavily backloaded. ugh. Could see the last 2 years being really bad for the Tigers as they try to pawn him off.

Heck, I tend to think I follow the minors enough, and it took me awhile to think of who Wander Cabrera was. Fine gamble for a pen arm. I guess the Rockies get a lottery ticket for someone they were going to let go.

Can Toronto even squeeze out the money for him? Aren't they pretty limited this winter, with so many big deals? Although ... add in a thin system, maybe they decide to go all-out. Still, I have my doubts that they can even squeeze out a competitive bid. I'm guessing the Price market is pretty much what people will expect - Dodgers, Giants, Cubs, Red Sox, with maybe a couple darkhorses out there (Diamondbacks? Nationals?) Even though teams have money, there still aren't enough teams that can realistically jump into what is expected to land Price.

Sorry, been busy and haven't been keeping up. Just saw that Kaplan stuff. If that Kaplan stuff is true, it feels like they are trying to thread the needle and win now while building long term. If so, that's an ambitious goal, rather than trying to go all-in now. The whole pitching front - - The idea that Price might cost too much (years and/or length) isn't exactly earth-shattering. One of the concepts early this off-season was the idea that they may try to get 2 2nd tier guys. Lackey isn't exactly my favorite option from that bunch, but he's a solid starter with some history with this front office and is good friends with Lester (at least, I think Theo signed him in Boston ... ). I still prefer other options, and even then, I'd like to save some tiny amount of money for a gamble (if that Lincecum showcase in the spring looks intriguing, that'd be a fun gamble). 2 2nd tier guys would probably mean both at 4-5 year deals, not exactly short, but won't really tie your down too much. - If they are in on Heyward, it's almost certainly either a short term deal or a player opt-out in the 3rd or 4th year. It works for us ... we can load the money up for him in the beginning without really impacting our ability to sign our kids long term). In fact, I'm almost giddy with the idea of just front-loading the deal and going for it now, and giving us flexibility long run. - I do wonder about the moving Montero part. It's hard to, as a fan, be that confident that Contreras is ready to step in out of spring ... but maybe. I do wonder if they feel like moving Montero's salary is needed to achieve their goals. - Of the three pitchers named, I would really only want to trade assets for Carrasco. If it's the other two, I'd rather spend on 2nd tier starters than trade young assets for them ... if possible. Easier said than done, but I'm still not terribly enthused about Miller or Teheran. Between Teheran and Miller, I think ... I think I prefer seeing what Bosio can do with Miller.

I'd be fascinated with Pompey, although we'd need a veteran backup that we would feel comfortable about. That said, I'd be surprised if Pompey goes anywhere unless it's for a rotation upgrade.

If that's too rich, what about Zimmerman and Samardzija, trade Hendricks + for Ender Inciarte? CF Inciarte LF Schwarber 3B Bryant 1B Rizzo RF Soler C Montero 2B Castro SS Russell Arrieta Lester Zimmerman Samardzija Hammel And you still have Baez mixing in. I don't like the idea of signing so many 30 year old pitchers, but it's another possible configuration. That'd be fine, but I fear the price of pitching is going higher than expected, particularly if San Francisco makes a heavy splash, and thus, I'm starting to wonder what Jordan Zimmerman might get. I'm also not certain a deal built around Hendricks will get Arizona jumping in Inciarte. This isn't a comment on the value of the deal ... just not sure Arizona goes for that sort of deal when they have mid-end of the rotation arms (although Hendricks would probably be better than most).

You think? I can't see it. If anything, I could even see it being slightly under 20, since I have doubts that teams value base running and defense as much as the metrics we know do. Especially since most feel defense peaks early. I can't see him taking less than 7 years and could see him get 10. The ONLY way I see him coming remotely close to 30 per year is if he signed a super short deal(3-4 years) for some reason. Honestly, with our young talent, we would be fine giving Heyward a short-term, high AAV deal. He makes big money and gets back on the market, we get a necessary ingredient to make a run now without tying up the money needed for long term deals for our kids when the time comes. That said, yeah, his agent is likely going to go for long with an opt-out, which makes me wonder if something like 7/180-190 is possible, with the breakdown being roughly heavy early (say, 3/90, with the backend being say, 4/100) and he gets an opt-out after year 3. I do think Heyward gets around 25 mil for an AAV, though, if not more. If Chris Davis is rumored as a 20+ mil AAV guy, I'm going to be surprised if Heyward doesn't come in around 25, and I honestly wouldn't be shocked if a team "Seattle'd" (thinking of the Cano deal) him closer to 30 mil on the AAV. There should be enough GM's that value his contributions to get that, although to be fair, I guess they have to convince the owner as well.

I'm honestly a bit befuddled by this deal. Yeah, Maybin cooled off, but that's it? Hart/Coppolella are a good combination overall, so if that's it, I'm taking a guess that was it. Still a bit shocking. Braves get some salary relief and perhaps some pen arms.

I was actually mildly intrigued with Frandy heading into next year at South Bend. I get the deal, trading away a far away piece, likely 2nd baseman if he panned out, in the hopes of finding a cheap bullpen addition that can help now. Frandy's at least a good 4 years away, if that, so there's every reason to take the gamble. They must have had pretty good reports/feel on Patton - this is pretty early to make a minor swap like this.

I'm sure the Yankees are talking to the Cubs, but this deal would make no sense for the Cubs. It makes no sense for the Cubs, as the amount of money you are paying Gardner, for his post-prime years (at least 3/38, assuming buyout of the last year), would be about market rate. In that situation, you might as well give Denard Span 3 or 4 years and be done with it, because you aren't getting any major savings. Now, if they decide to fork over other assets with Gardner, okay. I don't see the Yankees doing that, though.

Gordon's a fine comp as well. I view Zagunis as a possible plus corner OF defensively, so thus was always thinking more plus defensive RF's, but sure Gordon makes a ton of sense. Probably a bit more consistent pop than I am really expecting from Zagunis, and probably K's more than what I think Zagunis could do, but sure, it's a clear possible outcome. I view Heyward's 2012 as more of an aberration power-wise for him. Does he have said power potential? From a raw perspective, probably, but I just don't think he'll ever have that consistent game power.