toonsterwu

I am curious, though, if Stearns, in a rebuild job would consider something like Torres/Contreras/another youngster. That'd be an awful lot to give up for a C coming off a down year and only signed through 2017. At a certain point, enough value on prospects, in a rebuilding job, should out-weigh banking on a huge season from Lucroy to get more value at the deadline. Of course, depends on how he views our said prospects, and considering there were rumors of Gallo, he's starting off really high, so though he's working his way down, it might be too wide a gap.

There were a couple injuries, IIRC, although I'm not sure if that impacted his numbers.

Interesting. This comes sort of out of left field. Cost was supposedly really high - believe there was a rumor that Joey Gallo would have to start the package for the Rangers to get him. At the end of the day, it simply comes down to cost. I'd love to add him, but I'm simply not supportive of moving Soler/Baez potentially in a package for him, as nice as his contract is (and even the contract is only through 2017 if the option is picked up). If they are willing to do it for less, say, just prospects, I'd consider it, as that would allow us to try and move Montero and cut that contract, giving us additional flexibility.

Heesch had some LOOGY potential, but all in all, didn't lose anything that feels like it could even be, say, Justin Bour. Could be wrong, but Chen didn't have a role in the organization, Aybar/Ovando ... eh, and Heesch. I guess they wanted an upper level catcher to pair with Contreras in AAA. I do like the O'Neill pickup. Probably won't amount to much, as he's essentially taking Chen's "spot", but there's some tools. Don't know anything about Loya - guess their Mexican League scout saw something to like?

When you consider performance plus control, Giles is possibly the most valuable reliever in baseball. When his name was briefly attached to the Cubs, I figured it'd take on the order of 3 of our top 10 to land him. Sure, I get it. I mean, there's 4-5 years of control, plus stuff, significantly improved command, and from the Astros perspective, they really don't care about 3-4 years from now - they are focusing on their current window this year and next year. I completely get the cost, but I'd almost rather try plugging in guys rather than shelling that out. Sure, you'll walk into misses on occasion, or maybe a Tommy Hunter type, but you may, on occasion, walk into Zach Britton. That's a big, big package the Astros gave them. I mean, there's a part of me that likes that package as much as what they got for Cole Hamels. Velasquez has big time stuff and has a chance to be a very good power arm starter. There's some health concerns, but the stuff is that good. Fisher looks like he finally started to tap into his power and still has a chance to be an top power bat. Oberholtzer and Eshelman both have shots as end of the rotation arms. Obviously, the chance of all 4 panning out is slim, but the talent level given up is huge, and Velasquez looks like he has a good shot as a late inning pen arm if his health doesn't hold up.

I feel like that's an really great package that Klentak got for Giles. If that's the current cost, or close enough, for high end pen arms ... Ugh.

Specifically on Ross, no. He's got what, 2 more arb years left? The issue isn't that, though. As good as he is, I guess I still worry somewhat about arms that are so heavily dependent on slider usage. Add in that we aren't in a pressing need right now, and even though I think we add one more starter this winter (and maybe an arm or two for AAA), I wouldn't make the move for Ross straight up for Baez. I don't necessarily think value wise, in this market, that it's the far. There's probably an arm or two, if I pondered, that was offered straight up for Javy, that I would probably say yes to. I will say this - if they are listening on Travis Jankowski, and expanded the deal a bit, would I listen, assuming Jason Heyward was a no? I might ... and I don't absolutely love Jankowski, but it would make some sense for us. At the end of the day, it obviously would depend on what the rest of the package was. I could see something like Ross/Jankowski/low level guy for Baez/2 more pieces below Gleyber be somewhat worth it for us. Wouldn't surprise me if, in the end, San Diego ended up going the route of FA, though. Someone like Ian Desmond, coming off a down year, might be a fit there without the cost of giving up assets.

I'd be awful surprised if Szczur/Vogelbach/Villanueva could get one of their arms that have been discussed. When healthy, Cobb might be better than Odorizzi, so it seems tough/unlikely that they would sell that low on Cobb, and pen arms are costly in FA right now, so late inning pen arms seem likely to be costly in the trade market as well, enough so that quantity likely wouldn't matter as much. I guess it's not impossible if their FO somehow loved those guys, but I'd be fairly surprised if that motley crew of guys could get it done.

It's called haggling. We agreed to take stupid Brent Lillibridge, or whatever the hell his stupid, white name is off their hands. huh? That wasn't my point at all. And it's Brendan Ryan. But, my curiosity was that if the NYPost writer was correct, and that the original pursuit was Brett Gardner, that it could be a sign of the Cubs intent as it pertains to the rest of FA. Or, as noted, it could mean squat ... but no, my point wasn't to make some comment about haggling.

So, reading through the articles now, I'm left mildly curious if we'll ever find out how it actually went down. I believe Jesse Rogers noted that the Cubs proposed Castro for Warren early, but the Yankees said no. That said, over at the NYPost, either Davidoff or Sherman (don't recall right now) suggests that the Cubs kept pushing for Brett Gardner, but eventually fell back to Adam Warren, which Cashman agreed to because "you gotta give to get" (or something like that). All in all, not like it matters much, but am curious.

if it wasn't going to get them a pitcher like shelby miller then they should have just waited it out. they squandered a huge amount of value and got a pitcher who is, unless he makes a great leap forward, no better than "good", and they're getting him for his 3 most expensive arbitration years. Okay, but the flip side (not that I agree with it, again, just the flip side) - 1. You make the Greinke move, plus the general signals the front office was sending about winning now, you sort of have to do something. 2. They probably, by most accounts, didn't have much money left to spend. 3. It's hard to be in win-now mode and take gambles on arms. 4. Inciarte has been (correct me if I'm wrong, as I'm not able to flip through to fangraphs right now) a fairly pedestrian hitter away from Arizona, has so far shown to be more of a platoon offensive player in general (with his struggles against lefties), and there's still some belief that over the long haul, he's not an elite CF defender if tried there full-time. I get the numbers, and again, I think this is a bad trade, but if there should be anything really, really bad about this deal, it's dealing Dansby Swanson, IMO. Inciarte is nice, and Blair could be nice as well (and it's fair to say that Inciarte/Blair alone should've been enough for Miller), but Inciarte was also at the one position they had some depth at, and they weren't parting with Pollock. Again, understanding rationale isn't my argument for the deal - it's just I can sort of see their reasoning for the moves. ___ I want to be real clear - I don't think all that much of Shelby Miller (have repeatedly said I hated the idea of the Cubs trading anything for him since I think you can find that level of production on the FA market, and often times, with shrewd bargain hunting, or waiting out the market. I'm not convinced he's going to bust out (although I guess there are some positive indicators).

I get the numbers, but I'm not sure there was any way Ender Inciarte alone was going to net them a Shelby Miller level pitcher (no way for us to really know). I mean, what team is going to give them a young SP with some upside, coming off a decent year for Inciarte? That wasn't going to happen in this trade market, as of right now. The trade market just went up a lot as a result of the big numbers being thrown around by the 2nd tier starters left in FA. Now, perhaps the argument is that they should've tried to ship players around to get the necessary assets package to make a move. Perhaps they should've struck hard with Inciarte in the trade market first, to see what they could net in a trade for young talent, as there might be enough teams willing to go after a cheaper Inciarte than signing Fowler/Span/Parra eteceteras. I feel like I'm defending this trade when I really think it's a bad deal, but I'm just not sold Inciarte alone was netting a solid young starter, as reasonable as that may sound.

Eh, not really. Swanson was a relatively weak 1-1. A good talent, but sort of the best of the lot type move. Still wonder if Bregman turns out better, but I did come around by Swanson by the end of last CWS. ____ I love Dave Stewart bashing as much as the next guy, and as noted, I think this is an ugly deal for them ... but 1) There's a lot of people believing in Shelby Miller breaking out. 2) Swanson's projection isn't huge. He isn't projected as some game changing franchise type shortstop. A very solid guy, yes. WOuldn't surprise me if, with the Braves, Swanson's future is at 2nd. 3) Blair's ready, but more of an end of the rotation arm.. Really comes down to how much they felt Miller would break out. Would I have made this deal? Heck no. I would sign Mike Leake or Wei Yin Chen and live with that. The Diamondbacks clearly need to win soon, and after Greinke, they probably didn't have the money to shell out. They dealt from OF depth (I get the numbers, but Inciarte wasn't landing them Shelby Miller in this market), and gave up two guys whose reputations might be better than their projections. ___ Sort of reminds me of the Padres last off-season. I have a feeling this will blow up badly in their face in terms of being a winning team next year (as of now ... I'm not convinced this team looks as great as it sounds).

I get why Arizona did this, but geesh, it's a steep price to pay. They have to hope that all the expectations of Miller breaking through are true, because you gave away a lot of raw talent to make this move. Aaron Blair's basically ready for a MLB look, and while the ceiling's not high, he looks like he can be a back of the rotation type option. I ended up liking Swanson a lot more than I anticipated by the end of the CWS - won't hit for a ton of pop, but should hit for average and be solid defensively. Very nice move by the Braves to get some current rotation and positional help, a guy in Inciarte who could conceivably be flipped for more young assets if he performs, and a big long term piece. Now, they have two options in Albies and Swanson to battle over 2nd (I'd probably favor Albies defense a bit more). Just means their fan base has to live with being bad for another year or two ... but if they get through it and some of these guys develop, it's a very interesting group they are building.

It's a good deal for the Yankees, as they take a gamble on a guy who was essentially their swing man, and they have some chips to play to try and get an additional starter. I think Kevin Long's a pretty good hitting coach, so will be curious what work he can do with Castro. If Castro takes off, this is a heck of a trade for them. If not, it's a nice little gamble, and he shores up the question of who plays 2nd for them for the near future (Refsnyder/Ackley/Pirela). For us, it makes sense. I don't have huge expectations for Warren, other than that he adds needed depth for us. Warren will probably be given every shot to win a 4th/5th starter job in the spring, and failing that, would move to the pen if necessary. They clear money to add Zobrist, a better fit for the current window, without sacrificing, as of now, the overall future at 2nd (Baez, Torres, Happ, whoever takes the ball and runs with it). Now, there's no pressing urgency to add a starter, and they can take their time sorting through the CF options and/or see if this Baez in CF idea can happen. I tend to think they will end up at least adding one more SP option somehow, even if weak (maybe a change of scenes type like Ross Detwiler or someone of that ilk), and go after a CF, but now they aren't at the whims of the market. Going to be interesting to look back in the future and see how this one plays out.

Word from Nashville is Zorbrist is close to an agreement with the Cubs to play second base. thanks! (CR, David, Tim) i feel...conflicted (#toonster) on this. but excited to see how this all plays out and i trust this FO completely. Wait, why'd I get hash-tagged?

I doubt it's Miller. They were supposedly shopping Miller to get a young arm. It wouldn't surprise me a) If nothing came of this ... but b) if this is some sort of, as Tim noted, Castro for Nova and low level lottery ticket (or 2) prospect type deal. Wouldn't really be interested in that, but I don't know if I buy Miller in this unless the deal gets expanded, and I can't see the Yankees giving up too much quality to get Castro right now unless they have completely soured on their MI options that much. (in short, as davell notes, a possible salary dump)

Would seem like a lot of other moves have to happen in a short amount of time for the Cubs to land Zobrist, with Zobrist supposedly making a decision soon. Sounds like he wants more PT at 2nd as well, so that would mean a Starlin Castro move that hasn't been rumored about (unless I missed something).

While I don't think it's impossible, a) What is the deal being built around? Baez? Why? Machado's better ... and he's stuck at 3rd. Schoop has promise (and warts), but that FO has been ridiculously high on him. Are they trading for Baez to ... put him in the OF? That seems debatable. Now, if they can somehow move Hardy, sure, I can perhaps see Baez as the centerpiece. b) Orioles are looking for arms. I guess it's possible that with the right package, Hendricks could intrigue them, but it's hard to see a deal happening when the Orioles, with Gausman penciled in, already need probably 1 starter, if not 2, and they really don't have enough money to spend in FA. They haven't given any signs of going down the rebuild path this offseason, despite the fact that their current window may be closing.

The thing I kept pondering the whole day, when I wasn't busy, was this - this makes a lot of sense for the Cubs (one-stop shopping, SP/RP ... and perhaps even CF if they throw Jennings into the mix ... ta da ... offseason's done) ... but outside of Baez, I can't figure out what completes a deal to make the Rays want to pull the trigger. And leaving aside some extreme homerism from Cubs fans on the other boards (at least, based on what I saw at DRaysBay that other Cubs fans supposedly posted), it's either a) Going to take something more to pry loose an Odorizzi, and heck, perhaps even a Smyly to go along with a pen arm b) the Cubs are going to take a gamble (namely, something like Cobb), and I'm not sure a gamble on Cobb makes a lot of sense for a Cubs squad looking for a bit more certainty than that Of course, it could very well be that the talent of Baez is enough to sway ... uh ... who's the GM? Silverman? ... but they aren't exactly in a "We absolutely need to add an infielder" stage (Forsythe/Miller/Longoria seems like a decent 2nd/SS/3rd grouping, and positional pieces haven't fallen in FA yet), so it's hard to see them selling low on their pitching. It feels like a situation where the Rays assessed that the pitching market was strong and were looking to take advantage of their assets to flip for impact returns, thinking teams would probably prefer some of their arms over the cost of some of the FA's on the board. Dunno, going to be interesting to see how it plays out.

Honestly, while I like both guys, I think I would prefer Smyly over Odorizzi, provided everything checked out health wise (I know Smyly missed some time last year, but I can't recall what it was for). Smyly feels like he's got a bit higher ceiling, and I'm not sure Odorizzi is significantly safer than Smyly. Furthermore, it feels like a Smyly/McGee combo might come cheaper than a Odorizzi/McGee combo. As for whether or not the Cubs can put together enough - if Baez is in there, they can probably get it done with Baez, maybe a major league arm of some sort, and prospects/young players (not sure what on the young players part ... the Rays system is pretty ... well balanced, with positional assets and pitchers, and some intriguing guys in different levels). It's probably going to be costly, but the right combination of pitchers should make it worthwhile to go down that route, particularly if the Cubs get some control at a limited cost. The Rays do seem like one of the better match-ups, club wise, as it relates to arms.

I wouldn't trade Soler (or Schwarber) for Gausman, and I suspect that's what Baltimore would be looking for. Baltimore's already having enough problems with their rotation now that Chen is gone, I think the only way they move Gausman is if it's too good to pass up. Heck, the Wieters coming back part screwed them over enough that they seem to have clearly moved on from Chris Davis, unless the Davis market is less than anticipated (which I doubt).

Nothing but a random thought, but the team that seems like a great fit for the Nats for Strasburg might be ... the Yankees. I mean, rumors suggest they are shopping Andrew Miller, or at least listening. They've also been talking about Brett Gardner. The Yankees could probably find a way to take back a contract if need be, something like Werth's deal. You put in some additional pieces to make everyone happy (Nationals could offer a young arm to put in the mix, in case Strasburg leaves), and it sounds ... on paper ... doable, provided that the Nationals have enough time to go out in the FA market and find a third starter. Also wonder about the Dodgers. Perhaps they add Chapman without giving up Urias/Seager. Some sort of deal built around Jensen and/or Puig (Puig seems like the type of high ceiling guy that Rizzo would love to roll the dice on) would seem to make sense, but this feels a bit tougher to matchup with than the Yankees. Dunno, tough team to figure. I wouldn't be surprised if they moved him, but I don't anticipate it being a prospect heavy, "untested" guys type of deal. I also wouldn't be shocked if the Nats listened on Gio Gonzalez. I still say if they can move around enough money, address needs, perhaps move Strasburg, I wouldn't be stunned if they jumped in late on the remaining SP market.

I would love Storen (don't want Papelbon). He was having a heck of a year before they made that deal, and while I understand it from Rizzo's perspective, it seemed odd to throw aside a guy who had been performing as well as Storen had. If a team is patient with Storen and looks past the occasional hiccup ... I still think he's a top shelf pen arm. The Orioles may also shop Zach Britton, and I'd be intrigued with that, but they'd only move him if they really upgraded multiple areas.

I'm all for trying to get Strasburg, but it isn't that simple from Washington's side of the equation. They have a replacement for Ian Desmond for next year - Trea Turner. They have some up the middle options (Wilmer Difo). They have rotation options. They have some money to spend. While I do think they would move Strasburg in the right trade, what's the right trade for them? This is a Washington team with every intent on winning now, and you remove Strasburg from the equation, and it makes it that much harder for them. Suddenly, the rotation goes from intriguing (with Ross/Roark at the end and Cole as a AAA option, with Lopez/Fedde/Giolito in the wings) to fairly pedestrian. They would need a replacement, and while there's still some options in FA, I don't think they want to spend unless they can clear some money off. About their main needs that I can think of would be pen help, OF, and general depth. Short of it is, I don't think Washington does a Baez for Strasburg trade unless they get something else in return, either more talent or cap relief (in the form of someone taking Werth off), and I think from the Cubs perspective, that would be too much. It just seems like a hard match-up for us unless a 3rd team is involved. Not impossible, but while that was a fun idea that I pondered early, I think it's a tough match-up for us.