toonsterwu
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Everything posted by toonsterwu
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This was so out of the blue that I was surprised. That said ... I think it makes sense for both sides. 1st, I'm going to be curious how the contract breaks down. The initial guess would be that it's front-loaded so that Strasburg can get a bundle and then, if he wants, he could opt out. That said, while different tiers, Boras just came off an off-season when he landed a similar model deal for Wei-Yin Chen, and the contract pre-opt out wasn't front loaded. So that'll be very curious to see. 2nd, should there be concerns about Dusty? Of course. Baker's tenure in Cincinnati was actually okay with managing his pitchers (rode Arroyo too hard early on ... ) until 2012, when he rode all those starters. That said, this has been a Nationals organization that has been ultra-careful with Strasburg since he jumped in, but particularly, after TJ. The opt-outs probably there to protect him against being used too much as well, and they've largely had a strong pen there through the years. 3rd, Strasburg gets safety (if he gets hurt, that's still nice "pocket change". The Nationals get ... well, a lot actually. They get certainty and a top arm. I still find it funny that people somehow think ... less ... of Strasburg. Is he in that limited, Cy Young elite area yet? No, but he's been in that next group. More importantly, the Nationals get two more things - they show they'll keep their guys to stay strong (which I would imagine is important to Harper, but particularly, after letting Jordan Zimmerman and some guys go, it's a good internal message) AND they get a lot of flexibility this winter. If Giolito is slow to develop, they'll just keep the same starting five. If Giolito is ready? Gio Gonzalez would be one of the more intriguing arms on the market if they opted to shop him. If they wanted to try for a bigger deal, they could move Roark or Ross and see if they could get something else back. Either way, for all the talk about windows, the Nationals window is still now ... and the future. With Robles tearing it up in A ball and looking like the real deal, plus several solid enough catching prospects (and should add CF prospects ... Stevenson has shown better than I thought and same goes for Bautista) to replace Ramos if necessary, along with Trea Turner and a bevy of other arms waiting in the wings ... plus an ownership willing to spend ... this is a team that should be competitive for the next 4+ years. Of course, their ability to be a top squad is largely dependent on a certain OF staying with them.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-9-16
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Perhaps I'm just trying to find a silver lining ... but it's good to see that Edwards hasn't walked anyone in 4 straight outings. I can live with the occasional wild game from a guy out of the pen if he's largely consistent the rest of the time and has the plus stuff to get away with some issues. -
I'm utterly stunned at how Matt Thaiss is now a first rounder in some mocks. I'm not that convinced he sticks behind the plate, and while his approach is great, is that really enough? He's got good power, but I question if it translates into plus. Now, if he ends up sticking behind the plate, then fantastic.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-4-16
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
On zagunis ... If he's like this power wise at years end, then yes, it's a huge concern. He'll never have plus power but he does need to show more. At this early juncture, I was more concerned if the ... Slightly awkward .... Swing would hamper his contact ability. At the same stage, butler is ahead of vogelbach, but overall, still think they are fairly similar guys. -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-4-16
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
A couple years ago, I wouldn't have been as hopeful, but it sure seems likely that Vogelbach can play himself into being a useful piece to shop around. Perhaps not the lead piece in any deal, but a possible solid secondary piece. Still ... for all the talk (and there certainly was some) about his game power would take off, it's still relatively similar at this early juncture. Starting to think that he might be better than the Billy Butler comp I had been thinking. Unfortunately, finding a fit due to his limitations is still a concern. Still, if he produces, someone is bound to have some intrigue. I hate looking to them every time, but a rebuilding team like Oakland could certainly find a fit (Olson's scuffling, but Olson could probably go to corner OF and be more effective than Vogelbach). Zagunis and Caratini have certainly turned the offensive corner. With Cartaini, I think that, at least, in the interim, we're going to have to expect some streakiness. With Zagunis ... I know I shouldn't be that intrigued with him, but I can't help but wonder. Still, he's going to have to prove that he can make enough contact in AA and AAA. Happ cooling off doesn't bother me. It was nice to hope that maybe he could burn his way up the ladder, but a cooling off was always the more realistic possibility. What does trouble a bit is that K rate climbing. We're getting close to the point with Torres where the numbers will start to matter a bit. I kept looking at clips to try and see if something was different. I didn't follow in the spring all that much, but was there news on him revamping his swing for more power? It certainly seems that the swing has changed a bit from his past, but admittedly, clips can only tell you so much (and always hard to find clips of him flailing or looking bad). Still ... it looks good - bat speed looks good. How Eloy has been able to hold his own in South Bend so far is, I think, fairly impressive for a guy who had enough question marks on how he'd adapt to better pitching. Still a long way to go. -
College Baseball 2016
toonsterwu replied to toonsterwu's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Such a weird year for UVA, but they do seem like they are turning the corner. Still don't think they get a national seed (Teddy Cahill over at BA made a comment about how if UVA finished strong, and had a good ACC tournament, he thought they could surprise and perhaps snag 8). Just seems like UVA is short 1 pitcher, a 3rd starter (this is assuming Tommy Doyle settles down in the pen). That said, NCAA tournament time and regionals ... you can make a run with 2 good starters, and in Connor Jones and Adam Haseley, they've got two guys that are really good. They've got a disciplined offense with a rock solid middle of the order, and they are a solid defensive unit. You just hope to piece together a 3rd game with the pen. Going to be interesting - I wouldn't bet on them, but wouldn't bet against them. -
They'd never do this, but I wouldn't be totally against trying to pool those resources together for one or two semi-big moves, and filling in with senior signs. That said, I actually think this may oddly work out in some respects for us. No, we won't get a ton of high ceiling talent, but this feels like a deep college year, enough that I wonder if we may get a lot of solid guys to fill in gaps in the system, and there are definitely some gaps in the system.
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I'm guessing, with Hoyer in town, they'll just go with 2 QB's. Overall, the team looks intriguing, but maybe a year away. The young defense should be better, but I'm not sure how much to expect out of Floyd in Year 1. If he's an impact guy right away, that defense could take a huge leap, but if they have some inconsistency opposite McPhee, they'll likely have their ups and downs, particularly in the secondary. The offense looks like they should be able to pound the ball behind that OL. Overall, they look to be "on-schedule" in the quick rebuild - a possible .500ish team next year primed for a push the following year.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 4-29-16
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
If that's the case, unless an official announcement is made (and I haven't checked), I'd probably wait a cycle. Whenever Underwood was ready, he was going to bump whoever was slated that day. It's quite possible this is the official move, but with an off day next week, they can reshuffle things if they wanted before their 20 games in 20 days stretch. -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 4-30-16
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
The thing with prospect rankings is that they shouldn't be viewed solely as a judgment for whether or not a player can play, and whether or not they have MLB potential. Yes, there is a lot of over-lap, but rankings are, if we boil it down to it's most rudimentary purposes, focused on a combination of ceiling and capability of reaching said ceiling. I thought Young probably should've been in the 20's to 30's of our system this winter, and I liked him. I still do - here's a guy who has some speed, can play multiple infield positions (former collegiate shortstop), has some bat speed, has some foot speed, has a good approach. Prior to this year, he looked like a potentially solid bench option for the bigs, and a guy who might be able to squeeze out some years as a starter. In saying that, I don't think there was much reason to push him above where he largely got ranked - that 20's-30's range. There simply put, wasn't a ton of ceiling to him because of relatively limited tools, and he was a college guy in the lower levels. Fair or not, often times, for prospect rankings, guys with this sort of profile have to prove it up the ladder. I imagine if he keeps this up all year, he'll really jump in the eyes of prospect rankings and could reasonably see him crack the top 10 of our system. At that point, he'll have shown that his lower level success wasn't a fluke, that his bat speed plays up here, that his recognition is solid. The lower ceiling would limit his potential to rank higher, but if he maintains solid production all year, he'll deserve to be viewed as a "safer" guy who can help soon. -
I find this draft to unusual in this regard - no one has really "slipped". I mean, I don't call projected 4th-5th round guys becoming UDFA's as a guy that "slipped". About the only guy that might fit that category would be Charone Peake, but dunno, never thought he was a great draft prospect, just an intriguing athlete. There were those complaints about small hands, and I'm guessing medicals might be an issue there, otherwise a raw athlete like this with some production probably gets plucked.
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I still sort of like Glenn Gronkowski as a TE. He's never going to have the size to be a starter, but everyone's focusing on his warts - not a great blocker, not a great receiver, and so forth. I think he's a perfect H-back, 2nd TE, "move" TE type of guy, and his willingness to stick his nose in there for a block could offer some versatility in passing situations, as a protector and outlet for the QB on occasion. I think he'd be a nice UDFA pickup if he makes it through.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 4-29-16
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
With the obvious note that college guns are inconsistent ... Markey's velocity had hit mid-90's in college as well, but he could never stick there. When you factor in his size, or lack thereof, I really do think he's better off in the pen tying to ramp it up. Could envision his fastball/breaking ball and overall command being solid enough to possibly develop into a late inning type of arm (of course, you could say that about a number of guys ... ). -
I've lost some interest in following the Bears over the past year, so I'm certainly not as up to speed on everything. Overall ... while I thought Ryan Pace got a bit over-hyped ... I don't have any particular issues with this draft. Don't think it's some sort of home-run draft ... but it's a draft that made some sense. They absolutely needed a pass rusher. I'm not huge on Floyd ... actually, I didn't particularly love a lot of the edge guys this year, but I don't follow the draft as much as I did back in the day. With the way the draft fell, some quality edge possibilities fell into the 2nd round, but they couldn't have predicted that. I'll say this - I sort of believe in Fangio's ability to assess the type of guys he wants, and Floyd had some of the best raw tools. The protective trade made sense, with uncertainty on the Giants. After signing Massie, I didn't expect them to go OL that early, but Whitehair's a solid guy, and might as well add depth, with the other possibility being what, Slauson gets cut? He does seem a good fit for scheme. With what was on the board, I might've preferred adding, say, Cyrus Jones, who I really liked as a raw tools guy to develop, and focus on OL later, but Jones is a bit raw. I was fine with the trade-downs ... I read on another Bears site that they wanted Spriggs? Eh ... didn't love him enough to care that the Packers jumped us. Love the Bullard pick. Physically, he seems like a perfect fit for Fangio's scheme. A bit surprised he fell to the 3rd - but he seems to really fit for us. Only time will tell, but that was a great pick relative to need and value. Was actually sort of hoping that they would try to trade up for Connor Cook, but okay. That was a big price paid. I probably would've rolled the dice, as I think Cook's a good enough talent to roll that dice, but I sort of get why they wouldn't. Still, it's not like we've had Mr. Warm Fuzzy Leader at QB the past decade ... Cook would have to be an absolute prick for me to really care. As for the 4th round picks ... eh Kwiatkowski is fine. Just don't know if he stands out. We added depth, still have some guys like Jones around to compete ... eh. Would've loved Andrew Billings as added depth on the DL. I actually do like the two DB picks, Hall moreso than Bush. I think Bush is solid all-around and adds some depth on the squad, but I do sort of like Hall's chances to be a starter in time. Wouldn't want him being on an island consistently. I would keep him at CB until he can't. Vaguely reminds me of when we took Peanut back in the day, but obviously, Peanut was far better overall coming out of college. Perfectly fine with Jordon Howard and Houston-Carson in the 5th and 6th. Howard looks like he could be a nice thumper, but really, in those rounds, these are fine enough guys to gamble on. I can sort of imagine that Howard could potentially be somewhat of a poor man's Alfred Morris in this run scheme. Overall, so far ... they've attacked areas of need. I would've liked to see a TE or QB pick, but you obviously aren't covering everything, and fixing that defense was paramount. Not sure how much impact, long term, was truly had, but if they get a few pieces from this draft, it's a step in the right direction.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 4-29-16
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I actually prefer Markey being moved to the pen over Zastryzny, although frankly, it's not the biggest issue ... but the main reason being, I think there's a greater chance that Markey is more of an impactful pen arm than Zastryzny, and I don't really believe in either as starting pitchers. Iirc, I think Markey was able to ramp it up a bit out of the pen, so his fastball was more consistently in the mid-90's. Was this Markey's day, though? Sorry, too lazy to check. If so, I'd probably wait a cycle and see what happens. Could just be an issue of timing, and Underwood is clearly ahead of everyone as a priority such that he would get the go-ahead. -
Sorta comes down to the perspective one is viewing this. I feel like I should be viewing it from preseason, and as such, it's Steele/Clifton. I think it would be different if I was viewing it now, but I don't think that's fair to the earlier votes.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 4-26-16
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I'm still trying to decide whether or not I have time to take him and Rademacher seriously. Realistically, much as I like Chesny Young, he's the type of guy that, for me, as I said about Torreyes back in the day and others, simply has to prove it up each level. In that respects, he's still a relatively fringe prospect, as is Bijan. That said, a fringe prospect who is a utility player that can play MI is far more valuable than a fringe corner OF prospect like Rademacher. Young has a better hit tool than Bijan, and has better raw bat speed, at least, he did (not sure about anything this year). He was a college shortstop who ... if i recall correctly right now ... showed very well one summer in one of the Wood bat leagues - Northwoods, I think. I'm pretty certain that he's handled some 3rd before, to go with 2nd, and I'm pretty sure he's not going to show a David Kelton arm in the OF. A comparison to Ryan Theriot sounds ... awkward ... but really, if Theriot was thought of as simply as a last man on the bench, utility type option ... he'd be alright. I think Chesny has a better hit tool than Theriot ever did, but it's not that extreme. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but Rademacher has a big time arm, IIRC. The type of arm that might be able to give transitioning a shot, IIRC. -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 4-26-16
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I'm not ready to move anyone due to the SSS so far (Torres has had bad streaks with strikeouts before, I think there was a stretch last summer where he was striking out more than 1/4th of the time, maybe even close to 30%, although I'm too lazy to check). That said, the one thing to be said is that Torres was always more an accumulation of good skills, rather than a lot of great skills. I know there was some debate on it over the winter, or at least I brought it up, but it's debatable how many plus tools he really has, and how strong those said tools are, if you believe they are plus. Still, the overall balance of tools is very intriguing, and I wonder, without having followed a damn thing so far, if he's intentionally trying to hit for more power, which may impact his overall approach. That said, putting him 3rd is probably fair. I don't think there's a huge gap between Happ and Torres yet, though. I'm no where near close to pushing Almora up - really want to see extended work. As much as I like Pierce Johnson, I think he's better off as a late inning pen arm. He has the potential to be a solid option there, but the command will probably make him no more than an end of the rotation type if he even makes it. I do hope Zagunis can figure it out. There's a lot to like about him overall, but the inconsistency in his swing will hamper his hit tool. If he can iron it out, still think there's a chance for a very solid MLB player there. Anyone know what Tseng's velocity is these days? I just wonder if he is better off being a multi-faceted pen arm. I was mildly disappointed that Pena was moved to the pen, although it made sense. Anyone know if his stuff is playing up? -
Hell, he wasn't target 1. I forget who was target 1, but Dusty was the fallback. Rizzo's supposedly on the hot seat, but I still think he's doing a solid job there. They've got a very solid club, their system should be able to provide help not only soon, but potentially, impact help, and he set it up so that the youngsters won't be rushed. They've got enough trade assets if they need to make a move. Granted, some of their moves were just solid gambles that worked out (Erick Fedde comes to mind), but someone had to take the gamble.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 4-25-16
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I'm hoping that Alcantara can build up some value with positive performance and be used as a solid secondary piece in a trade. That said, much as I was intrigued with him coming up ... I'm not particularly hopeful that he can build up said value. -
I like the positive attitude, but I really question the idea that entering the season, that Paul Blackburn or Jake Stinnett would be top 10 guys for a lot of systems. For the bottom 4-5 systems, maybe, but even then ... for example, I'd have a tough time arguing that entering the season, that Jake Stinnett should go ahead of say, David Hess in the Orioles system. Or that Jake Stinnett or Paul Blackburn are better guys than say ... the Tigers Artie Lewicki, who was rated in the 20's in a system that's largely considered bad. Short of it is, there's plenty of guys with similar levels of talents in most systems. We're deeper than a lot of systems, but the reality is, most of these guys, much as we like them, won't make it for one reason or another. I mean, the top evaluators have low hit rates - McLeod's Padres drafts were inconsistent in results (I think he ran it in 2010 and 2011). Obviously, a few hits in 2011, but when you consider the number of high picks ... that shouldn't be a huge surprise. Not trying to rain on the fun ... but I just question the concept that our depth would be significantly higher ranked talent elsewhere. ___ Since I want to view this as before the year, my votes went to Clifton and Steele. ______
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 4-25-16
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Total side note thoughts since I've been busy, but I'm curious if Jose Rosario can keep this up and move up fast. Obviously, been busy, so no clue how the stuff is reporting, but once upon a time, he was a starter with an electric fastball in the mid-90's and a very good slider, stuff that should play well in the pen. I actually liked him as a pen arm option better than I liked Starling Peralta, I think. Obviously early, with so few innings, but I'm curious. Also, love what Stinnett's done early on. Guess I was wrong - I was close to shifting him to a "pen arm" option in my mind. If Dewees keeps it up, considering the total lack of dominant OF options in his way and that he's an older guy, I would really love to see him move up to MB soon. Not now, but soon, if he keeps it up. -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 4-25-16
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I really liked him, but it was hard to really figure where to put him entering the season. Late 20's seemed reasonable, but he's a grinder with some skill. IIRC, bat speed's solid, uses the entire field. Really, he's an ideal last man on a bench, utility type of guy - a guy who has played shortstop before (college), has handled 2nd, and I'm pretty sure 3rd off the top, and should be able to make that transition to the OF. Unlike another guy that I liked as a versatile type option (Bruno), Young plays to his skillset, has some speed (although what was enticing about Bruno was obviously the potential to hit for some power). Happ forcing his way to AA might not be the worst thing. My guess is that they'll give Happ extra time at MB, but with the way he's taken off, if he keeps it up, they might just feel like he can get the same defensive work at AA instead. If Happ goes to AA, that might accelerate the process of moving Young into a utility guy, which is probably where his future is at. -
College Baseball 2016
toonsterwu replied to toonsterwu's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Virginia is slowly turning it around. I still don't know why they waited so long to get Haseley into the weekend rotation. He was clearly one of their top 3 arms. The Doyle-Bettinger swap was interesting. Doyle is probably a better closer than starter (where his 2 pitch arsenal can play up more), whereas Bettinger is pretty much the same inconsistent guy in the pen and the rotation. The lineup's good, and with Connor Jones and Adam Haseley, if they get in (and barring a collapse, they should), they'll be dangerous, but it's hard to see there being enough pitching this year for some sort of surprise run. They really need another arm to take a big jump to really think that. -
Duane Underwood: Elbow Stiffness
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Perhaps I'm reading too much into it, but Maddon's statements makes it seem like they have some sort of internal map laid out on how this plays out. Makes me curious what Underwood's schedule is going to look like in the early goings - just wonder if perhaps they send him to XST to build up before sending him to, I'm assuming, Tennessee.

