toonsterwu

It's possible, but there's so many guys with big arms in this Rule 5 it seems, guys who have less ghastly command problems than Black.

With 5 spots, and uncertainty left with the 5th starter spot and middle relief, we should take someone. I'd lean towards a lefty who looks close to ready, someone that could perhaps compete for that 5th starter's job, even if it's just a prayer's chance, and could perhaps battle Duensing and others for a pen role. Thus, I still prefer Wei-Chung Wang over Ismael Guillon and Angel Perdomo, although Perdomo took big steps last year, it seems. It's just those two are so far away that it's hard to buy them realistically sticking on our roster. Wang's a tough buy too, but it seems like there's a better chance he could, and his stuff is close enough. If they went pure pen, Webb and Routt make sense. That said, guess it doesn't have to be limited to lefties. Wouldn't mind rolling the dice on someone like Brasoban, but of course, we may lose our own big armed guy in Andury Acevedo. Either way, we should grab someone, and worst case is, a couple weeks later, we change our minds and send them back. We should have that money to spare if necessary.

Well, first off, we don't know they could've gotten Archer/Colome. Would I trade Victor Robles in a deal for Archer? Sure, but maybe they didn't feel Archer was worth it, or maybe the Rays didn't think they had enough. We really don't know the internal workings. 2nd, didn't they limit their Melancon bidding at something like 12 mil AAV. While that isn't chump change, that isn't a ton. McCutchen and Sale combined would've been what, 22 mil or so for 2016. With Dex pushing for 18 AAV (and I don't think he gets that) and not looking like he's going to settle anytime soon, perhaps they made a decision that the cost was too high and the time lost with others would be an issue. Don't know. They clearly pivoted to their preferred Plan B, so internally, they probably their decision board set up. It's not like the Nationals pen is a problem. I think that we're forgetting that they have pretty solid pen options coming back. Shawn Kelley, Blake Treinen, Sammy Solis is a nice threesome to work with in the pen. I forget their 2nd lefty right now, but they had one last year. Koda Glover is deserving of a shot. They added a big arm in Jimmy Cordero. Really, what we're talking about basically is the lack of a closer (or if you think Kelley can close, and I think he could, then a lack of a stronger 8th inning option). They really aren't depending on untested minor leaguers for key roles unless those players earn them. (unless they punt on adding another arm to the mix ... I agree they need one more arm).

I'm not sure how much budget flexibility they actually have right now. Wasn't it last trade deadline where they were supposedly very limited financially? I'm of the opinion that Robles shouldn't have been moved. He's that good of a talent, and if you buy that he might have some more power ... if all goes well, we might be talking top 5 prospect in baseball next year. Whether or not they could've landed Archer/Colome, don't know. That said, a rotation of Scherzer/Strasburg/Roark/Gonzalez/Ross is plenty good, and with Voth/Cole, there's some depth. I'm sure they'll add other pieces. Would adding an ace have made that great? Perhaps (and I wonder if the subsequent move, had they added a Sale, would be to move Joe Ross to closer), but it's still a very good, probably top 10 rotation in baseball. I'm also of the opinion that you can find pen arms/groom a youngster for it. Neftali Feliz is still out there, and he had a nice bounceback year with that velo. Actually, I'd love to see AJ Cole shifted to short inning duty, where the fastball may play back up again. Koda Glover could be groomed for that closer role, and should start the year in the pen. Their system isn't bereft of talent - it's just thin. They could deal Fedde if they wanted. They had a good year with some raw talent - Soto looks promising, Joan Baez looks like he could get fast-tracked as a pen arm if they wanted, but probably goes step by step as they keep him as a starter.

I'm fine with this trade, but I hope we wind down making trades for late inning arms by giving up intriguing young talent. In this case, it wasn't as big a deal, as Soler's clock was ticking and he didn't have a role (although I had sort of hoped we might be able to move him and get a young SP arm of some sort). That said ... Tyler Thornburg - failed starter. Zach Britton - failed to earn a rotation job (one could debate how fair that competition was as, IIRC, he had an issue with the pitching coach) Brad Brach - sort of came out of no where. Wade Davis - failed starter. I mean you can go down the list. We've got to be able to start developing internal pen options. I hope Carl Edwards Jr. is being groomed for that late inning role and that another guy or two can emerge in the next year or so. Maybe it's Duane Underwood. Maybe it's Zach Hedges. I just hope that we are able, in the near future, to be making moves to fill in gaps in the pen, not key roles.

Fowler also would've cost a ton more money and Rizzo might have some limitations on him. Add in some legitimate concerns on Giolito and Lopez ... this is a good haul for the White Sox, but I think it's actually quite reasonable considering the talent they got (Eaton) that fills a need. Part of it comes down to the fact that I buy into the idea that Eaton was hurt in 2015 which hurt his defensive numbers. I think Eaton is a better RF than CF, but I think he should be solid in CF.

The reaction on Nats sites seems to be okay. Eaton is really good - I think we're underrating how good Eaton is, and he was playing hurt in 2015, so I'm not sure he's that bad in CF. Add in the great contract and his age ... that's a very nice package that fills a key need. I still like Giolito, but there are some good reasons as to why the Nats (and the fan base) might've soured on him a bit. Some of it is in that Sullivan article on fangraphs, and there were rumors of bad work ethic and so forth. Actually, it wouldn't surprise me if Lopez was the one they really wanted to hold onto. I think there's a willingness to give Rizzo some leash. He has a superb trade history, and has done a fairly good job in those trades of assessing what his pieces are and what type of value they are worth. This may be a bigger roll of the dice, but they are in win-now mode, with enough rumors percolating that they might've made up their minds on Harper's FA already. Eaton probably isn't in CF for long - Werth is gone next year (I think), and Robles might be ready by 2018. By no means am I saying this is a bad deal for the White Sox. It's a good haul, gambling on ceiling, which they can do because Hahn looks to be tearing down completely, so stashing ceiling in the minors, coupled with a couple bad seasons, should rebuild the talent base quick and give them a chance to perhaps open a window before the end of the decade.

I'm of two minds on this trade. On the one hand ... I liked the arms the Nationals gave up. Giolito still looks promising, Lopez's ceiling is huge, and Dunning looks like he has a mid-rotation ceiling and might've been a bit underrated in the draft. Adam Eaton wasn't going to be a key member of the next winning White Sox window, so getting a bundle made sense. It's a good return for them, although they have arm depth. They took a gamble on ceiling. Hahn doesn't seem like the type that would rush into a deal, so I presume they either targeted these guys, or this was clearly the best deal (or both). On the other hand ... Reynaldo Lopez fell into that Michael Kopech group for me - arms that I'm not convinced will have the consistency to be a starter quick enough, and with the increase in valuing pens these days, I feel like both those guys may be moved to the pen sooner than later. SOme guys take some more time to figure it out. Dunning's nice, but okay, you give up guys like that to complete big deals. So the key is Giolito. I still like him, but it's interesting that two highly touted arms like Taijuan Walker and Lucas GIolito were moved this offseason when both still held immense promise. Sullivan had the great article that critiqued Giolito on fangraphs - if he's a low-mid 90's average fastball guy, even with a plus curve, it's interesting but not jaw dropping. Nationals supposedly weren't pleased with work ethic and other issues (although talent still matters first and foremost). Mike Rizzo has a very good trade history. I mean, all GM's/FO types make mistakes, but his trade history is pretty good in evaluating what talents of his to give up. Eaton is really good - I had somewhat secretly hoped he might be a sleeper CF option as I think his defense in CF is not 2015 bad - and really cheap and controlled. The Nationals kept their most important prospect - VIctor Robles - a guy who has elite potential. They still have some arms to plug in for depth (Voth/Cole). If Joe Ross develops a 3rd pitch ... the their main need/concern is a closer. Most importantly, the Nats are in a win-now mode as well. Win-now mode clubs make these gambles. With Eaton, that offense should be good next year, and the rotation looks solid. A top 4 of Turner/Eaton/Harper/Murphy is a devastating foursome. Overall, I'm inclined to think that this is a good strategic gamble by Rizzo and a good trade for Hahn. Rizzo knows what he's dealing away in those arms, moreso than any other team does, and while they may pan out, this move makes sense.

The Washington rumor wasn't just quantity, though. I mean, Giolito still has frontline stuff, and Robles could be special. Still wonder if he might have a bit more pop, and if he did, that's a possible top overall prospect type of talent. I think the difference, in the end, was probably that the White Sox wanted a positional asset that was closer to the majors than a pitcher (Robles probably needs a couple more years in the minors), and that the White Sox had better pitching depth relatively speaking. As for the Nationals, if they wanted Trea Turner along with Giolito AND Robles ... good for them for backing away. That would've been insane to do.

Or does this deal give us the framework for rough value for Archer? Javy, Eloy, Cease, Underwood and whoever they like best of Jeimer/Zagunis/Caritini? Or what about Javy for Eduardo Rodriguez? Or what would it take for Rodriguez now that there's an additional rotation piece in Boston? Eduardo Rodriguez finished the year strong. I forget the numbers, but he was real good after he got his break to heal early in the year. My guess is that he ends up the 5th starter, and they dump Buchholz, but who knows. _____ As for the trade, I'm of two minds. a) The value isn't that egregious. Sale was in his prime, with 3 years of control left. It was going to cost a top guy. The fact that they saved Groome and Devers is solid. I have never loved Kopech. Love the heat, but still feel he's destined for the pen. This isn't to say that the White Sox didn't get a great deal. They did, but value wise, it isn't that egregious. b) That said ... their rotation wasn't bad. Moncada could've helped this year, perhaps. A young core with the addition on Moncada to the that group would've given them a longer championship window. They basically went all-in on 2017 and 2018. They look great, so obviously, it might work out.

Well, maybe the Cubs lucked into an opportunity, with Tyson Ross getting non-tendered. Doesn't mean we shouldn't add additional options, as Ross is no sure thing for next season, but rolling the dice on sort of deal with Ross seems like as good an option as we could've hoped for. As for the rest of the off-season, nothing surprising. Fowler was such a great fit, but at 18 million per, thanks, but no thanks. Jay is a decent enough option, although admittedly, he wasn't on my mind. I imagine Almora is either the starting CF, or he's in AAA, so Szczur could still be in the mix for some PT. The idea of paying that much for a closer has never been that exciting to me, so if they pass, okay. I'm intrigued with say, Neftali Feliz (if he's still available, been busy) and a gamble on some other pieces. Addressing the rotation jumps to the top of the list after that, and the Ross non-tender makes for a great opportunity. Had been thinking that, since it seems like we don't have the chips to jump into the big end, we might be able to be the 3rd team in a deal, akin to the Nationals back in the day swooping in to help the Rays/Padres make a deal (and stealing Turner/Ross). Don't expect to get that lucky, but it's crossed my mind that maybe we could utilize Soler to help another team complete a big trade, while nabbing some key pieces for ourselves (in my mind, I'm thinking something with the Nats, because they have been in the news, where the Nats try to protect Robles and get Soler to swap for whatever big trade they do but obviously other options out there).

For us or in general? For us, probably no. Hard to see how they stash someone like him. He's coming off a good campaign but I don't recall him as a guy whose stuff was particularly likely to shut down lefties, just overall effectiveness, if that makes sense. I guess, if they have the money to spare and they find the rotation spot, they can just keep him and dump him when possible. For other teams? Perhaps. Wang would make sense for a rebuilding team willing to give him either a 5th spot or a pen job. He's close to ready for a legitimate MLB look, and has a starter's arsenal. Not sure if any of the pitches are considered plus, but iirc, above average fastball that tops out around 92, above average curve, and I think an average change. He's really had a good year and a half - he took off the 2nd half of 2015, IIRC. The Brewers could really use him.

I do keep coming back to Philly because they match up with our needs so well, with potential pen arms, starting depth to stash, and Odubel Herrera as a possible CF option. I'm just not certain if we match up that well with them. If they have interest in Soler, then it could work, as they may be open to moving Herrera, with Roman Quinn looking close as well (or maybe they take an interest in Almora. The Braves make sense for us (pitching depth, Inciarte), but it sure feels like they are putting their focus on getting elite pitching first. The other trade idea that I keep thinking about is some sort of Almora/Soler/others swap for Pollock/pen help/rotation depth. At the end of the day, the easiest course is still the best course - signing Dex and giving us a crapload of flexibility. With trade costs likely to be high this winter, my hunch is that the Cubs FO bites the bullet and gives Fowler some sort of 4 year deal at the end (maybe 3 and a way to get the 4th). I think Yankees would jump all over Candelario for Brett Gardner ... but I'm on the record as not being too keen on Gardner. There are some positives he brings, but I'm not a believe that he'll be a good defensive CF.

I was about to come here to write don't forget about Mitch Haniger before I saw somewhere that Dave Cameron wrote an in-depth piece essentially saying don't forget about Haniger. If he can play CF and last year was a sign of offensive development ... I wanted to come here and blast this trade for the Mariners, but really, I actually sort of like it for both sides. DiPoto must feel he can find pitching, and in Segura, he finally shores up the infield to try and win now. Haniger's a nice gamble, and if he can't play CF, if the offensive development is legitimate on the hit tool, then you have a plus defensive corner OF with pop. They are in win-now mode, as short-lived as this window may be. Getting a guy like Segura, coming off the season he had ... it wasn't going to be cheap. I think Segura probably comes back down to earth a bit (I mean, even the most optimistic projections of him coming up didn't really see that level of power), but let's not forget that Segura was a highly touted shortstop prospect coming up (centerpiece to Greinke deal) and was viewed as a guy who could be a good offensive player. When you factor in his child died, and having to adjust to the majors ... it's not hard to imagine that he might be coming into his own a tiny bit. For the D-backs, it's a great gamble to go after Walker. They potentially get a high ceiling arm about to put it together, and the cost is selling high on Segura. I'm not sure what this signals in regards to whether or not Hazen and Sawdaye are tearing it down, or just retooling. They do have Nick Ahmed at shortstop for defense to go with Ketel Marte, so they might be fine there in the short term. The starting lineup looks decent if they can find another bat or two, and if Pollock returns to firm. They do have the pitching depth to try and find those pieces. Still ... the margin of error is thin because their depth looks bad.

Oh, let me be clear, I wasn't suggesting Stanton. Don't think the Marlins move him at all. I am mildly, mildly curious if they might try some big moves to shake things up to try and win while Stanton is there. Of course, that runs into the usual names of guys they could move. Thing is, even before the passing of Jose Fernandez, their core, while good (Yelich/Ozuna/Stanton/Realmuto ... ?) had a very small margin of error, and they made things worse by dumping Naylor for Cashner. I know there are those Jansen rumors with them, but they seem to need a lot more than Jansen to really make a jump. Tough situation for them - sort of no man's land for organizations, not enough chips to really deal (Chen's contract, lack of pitching to move) without denting their young core. Pollock is the name that stands out to me this offseason because of the relationship between Hazen/Sawdaye and Co. to our staff, plus the strong likelihood that Arizona will rebuild. Adam Eaton makes some sense as well if the White Sox would be willing to trade with us. I threw out Odubel Herrera out there, but that's likely impossible, although with the Phillies arm depth, it'd be nice to do some one-stop shopping (pen help, rotation depth, and CF). With the Braves being really active, I half wonder if there's any way to pry Ender Inciarte from them, but we don't match up 1 v 1 with them all that well. I don't love the Brett Gardner option, as I don't think he'll be very good in CF, and I think we need a top defender there. I don't see us going for a rebound candidate. It's hard for me to envision them going after an unproven youngster coming off the World Series. Looking through names ... Marcell Ozuna does make some sense, but just don't see how we match up. Fowler makes so much sense as a fit for us, but I have my doubts we give him a 4 year deal, and it's hard to see him, coming off such a big year, not getting some sort of 4 year deal.

Oh, that is way too low on Soler. I like Chih-Wei Hu enough, but he's essentially a better version of his fellow countryman Jen-ho Tseng, slightly better fastball, deep arsenal but of average-ish pitches. If you are trading for a MLB pitcher like that, fine, but not a prospect. Soler should be able to bring back more bang for the buck in terms of immediate help, or higher upside if you are looking to stock the system.

Hunch is that, despite picking up the option, they may listen on Gio this winter. I think they might even prefer giving Giolito some more AAA seasoning and just leaving AAA loaded. I think Cole's fallen quite back. I think Austin Voth would be ahead of him if they had their druthers of someone to call up. Cole may be better off as a power pen arm.

I won't be too quick to jump on Sale on the LaRoche thing. That seemed like such a strange situation, and my gut feeling on reading that was that their clubhouse was a mess, enough so that guys weren't communicating. Our clubhouse doesn't seem like that, although who knows how things change. Still, the fact that Sale was so tight with one of the guys isn't the worst thing. His actions weren't the best, by any means. _____ As for pursuing Sale or Quintanta, we've always made sense as a match because of our positional depth compared to their pitching depth to supplement any guys they trade away. I just don't think we shoot THIS high unless Arrieta gets moved, or the price of Sale is cheaper than expected, and neither are things I'm expecting. If we're trading major pieces for someone on that squad, I'd rather go after Adam Eaton.

Orioles won't move Bundy. He looked so intriguing last year that they are all excited again. He'll have an innings limit, but with Bundy/Gausman, they have the makings for a legitimate front of the rotation. The idea of Britton intrigues me. That said, the idea of adding Brach or Givens would intrigue me as well. With Chance Sisco in the system, I'd be surprised if they'd have much interest in Caratini. Tbh, I think it's debatable if Soler/Caratini/Happ/Jeimer would land you Britton (more on a fit perspective ... hunch is they wouldn't be all that huge on Jeimer (as improved as he is, I'm not sure the Orioles are the type of team that would feel great about having him at 3rd) and Caratini. They'd probably have Happ in the OF (unless Schoop moved to 3rd, Machado to short, and that opened up a space at 2nd). Some sort of Soler/Happ package to start would probably get us in the game. They'd probably want more than the value Boston gave up for Kimbrel last year, so it'd be about piecing something together. Total side note, but said it around midseason, but I see some shades of Zach Britton in Justin Steele.

From a hypothetical perspective ... I think they would hav eto think about the first, with Baez and Schwarber showing they can succeed at the big league level. I think they might lean no on the last two, feeling like they are taking on too much risk. That said, I don't think the Angels deal Trout. There's too few organizations that can give them the quality bundle needed one-to-one, leaving alone the tag of "dealing the best player in the game entering his prime years" that would be slapped on them (And by most accounts, Arte Moreno is wary of that). A waste of Trout's prime ... but I think that's the way it goes for now. Only slim chance I could perhaps see a deal coming together is if the Angels are able to spin a third team involved to really get a huge bundle. In short, I'm thinking that to get them to ponder it would take maybe 3 or 4 young MLB players, something few organizations will give up.

Okay, color me mildly surprised. Let's leave rankings aside for a moment - I'm mildly curious why everyone is so down on Bryan Hudson, enough so that I feel like I might end up being the high man on him after feeling like I was the low man on him last winter (based on recollection, I think I had him lumped with Steele). I certainly didn't follow things as closely this year, so maybe I missed something. This is what I'm looking at (after a very quick perusal of Hudson articles to see if I missed anything) - a) The Hudson drafted, IIRC, was a tall, lanky athlete whose fastball sat in that 86-89 range. There were a couple reports of the FB topping out in the 90's, but when the majority of reports were in one range, I tend to think that's where he sat. He had a plus curve, basically your typical high school change (could throw it but it wasn't much). There were clear mechanical issues he needed to work on, along with command. b) I know this is his 2nd year in the system, but it was his age 19 season, still very young and still physically maturing. I know a couple reports popped up in instructs of him in what, 90-93 range, but keep in mind the workload/opportunity that the kids have in instructs. Several years back, one of the Latin arms ... maybe it was Wellington Cruz or Luis Liria ... had his fastball jump in instructs because of workload and usage, only for those numbers to settle down. Last report I saw in the summer had him in that 88-91 range, which would seem to show some firming up of the fastball. By most accounts, that curve is still there. There was an article on milb late in the year about Hudson working through his mechanics and taking that to the field, and there was another article about him trying to use the change more. ____ I don't think his ceiling is particularly off the walls crazy good. I think best case scenario is a notch above mid-rotation, but he has more of the makings of your typical "mid-rotation" lefty ceiling, which is obviously rather valuable. He's also such a tall hurler, and these guys take time to develop, particularly when they are that young. He is, by most accounts, still physically maturing. I may be rationalizing a bit ... but I just don't see the necessity to be hugely concerned yet. Can it be said that 2017 is a big year for him? Sure, age 20, likely full season ball, he's gotta show improved mechanical consistency, which would hopefully lead to improved command. I'm just not ready to be hugely disappointed. If any of the above is wrong, particularly about what he is now ... okay. I stand corrected. That said, the Cubs were high on the athletic Hudson, and while I didn't particularly love the throwing of money towards Hudson at the time, I just don't see significant cause for concern yet when all the warning signs for slow development were out there.

I can see Beeler ... Rademacher? I guess not out of the question. I'd be floored if someone took a chance on Maples. He's not ready for the bigs, doesn't seem like he has the stuff to presently get big leaguers out. Even a bad team can't afford to stash someone like that all year. I've been wrong before, and surprises do happen (Wei-Chung Wang getting plucked by the Brewers several years ago comes to mind, although that was a lefty with some raw stuff to work with, albeit down in rookie ball). That said, if someone wanted to take a young arm flyer to stash in their pen and dump on the DL when possible, and then send them down to the minors in 2018 ... Ryan McNeil seems to make a ton more sense coming off the positive season he had at Myrtle Beach. Daury Torrez comes to mind as well, although I think McNeil is the more likely of the two. None of the Rule 5 decisions really bothered me. I like Jose Paulino, but hard to see a team plucking him (unless it's a Wei-Chung Wang type of move). If so, there's no way Paulino was factoring into the big league picture this year, barring a surprise, so you tip your cap and move on. My offseason thought has been focused on Hazen and the DIamondbacks, and namely, AJ Pollock, if he's healthy. That said, if Pollock is available, the bidding is likely to get costly. In the "it's stupid" block of thoughts, the Phillies are still rebuilding and I do wonder if a Odubel Herrera/Hector Neris trade could be worked out to shore up the pen and address CF? Again, this is in the "it's stupid" block as they probably aren't moving Herrera unless it's a superb deal. A team I'm curious about are the Marlins. Fair or not, the death of Jose Fernandez, on paper, seems to really, severely damage their chances to compete with their current core. I do wonder if, in an attempt to win with Stanton, they might try some big moves. Unlikely, but I wonder. Orioles/Astros deep pens make me wonder if something could be worked out (a couple other clubs fit the picture as well).

For some reason I was irrationally annoyed we traded Blevins for the ghost of Jason Kendall. I'd be a fan on a one year deal. Was good this past year and has a 3.21 FIP over the past four years. If the goal is to bring in a situational arm, and I'm not exactly certain on that, then I'd be all for Blevins. Can't say I'm all that bummed about Cecil. As dominant as he has been since going to the pen, moments of inconsistency are bothersome, but more importantly, I'm not sure you couldn't "find" that. Add in the commitment in years that it was going to take (and did take), and I'm sort of glad. I have to agree in general with TT's worries on the pen - the way Rondon struggled in the 2nd half, and Maddon essentially losing all confidence in him, leaves us in a far more precarious situation. That said, I'm going to be stunned if we shell out the years and money for Chapman. I just don't see it happening. Maybe I'm wrong - not against it by any means, depending on how things shake out. I wouldn't be against exploring the off-season trade market for pen arms depending on how the market shakes out on the FA's. There's a couple teams with deep pens but question marks elsewhere that make me wonder if they might shop some arms. It could be costly in terms of young talent, but measured against where we are, where the system is ... it might make more sense. Really comes down to how the market shakes out first, though.

I'd take the percieved ceiling of any of Newcomb, Allard, Anderson, Muller, and Wentz over the perceieved ceiling of any Cubs arm prospect. Right off the bat all three in this system have missed all or most of a season to an elbow or shoulder issue, a nice way to put a dent into ceiling. The 41/41 K:BB in 58 IP in a pitcher's park isn't alarming? Even the 4 HRs...What are the ceilings of de la Cruz and Hudson? On the Braves - fair enough. Everyone will view it differently. I really don't love the ceilings of some of the Braves arms. If we expand it out to 5 or more arms, sure. But I like the ceilings of Cease/de la Cruz/Albertos stacked up against any threesome of that system. Obviously, ceiling in of itself has very little meaning, as you note about injuries. My point wasn't necessarily to say that any of these guys will make it (as I noted, at the end of the day, could be that the most value that these guys bring is trade value), just that the ceiling of those three guys is, IMO, that high. As for Hudson, and I could be wrong, but I think I might've been the low man on him last offseason ... but what did folks expect? A lanky, 6'8" breaking ball reliant kid was going to be a work in progress. I'll probably flip him and Albertos, as that makes zero sense looking at it now (I think Albertos' ceiling is higher), and may move guys a spot or two here and there ... but I'm not terribly alarmed on much about Hudson as of now. If he doesn't show improvement this year? That'd be a slightly different story. I was very strong last offseason that I thought de la Cruz's profile was that of a potential TOR type arm, but with a little more volatility in what he could potentially become, and with the solid run at SB, I still view him that way. Hudson's ceiling ... I'd probably put it at a notch above mid-rotation arm, depending on how his fastball consistency/changeup development goes.

This offseason is more exciting than last offseason. There's the obvious - the World Series ... but I'm far more intrigued with where the system is this offseason compared to when it entered last offseason, from a prospect perspective. Simply put, there's more ceiling to be excited about (and specifically, pitching), but I think, compared to where the system was a year ago, there is a better blend of ceiling/floor in the upper levels as well. I'm sure if I thought long and hard, I could come up with a recent Cubs grouping of arms that excites as much as Cease/de la Cruz/Albertos do (and I'm loathe to not include Clifton in that grouping, but much as I like him, his ceiling is just that tiny tick below). I mean ... 2003 was a good, deep group of arms, but the ceiling is tough to compare. To be honest, I think that trio of guys, ceiling wise, is near the top for any trio in a system in the minors (the one trio that comes to mind and tops the list, for me, is Giolito/Lopez/Fedde. The Braves have insane depth, but ceiling wise ... I'd take our trio over any trio you can come up with in their system. Brewers come to mind, with Hader/Ortiz/Bickford.) Add in Clifton to that mix ... and the fact that we'll need some young arms sooner than later ... and it's exciting. Sure, there's probably as high a chance that their best value is as a trade asset, but it's exciting. Eloy offers us monstrous intrigue, and there's enough upper level guys that look like they can contribute positionally (Zagunis/Candelario/Caratini) or be positive trade assets. I mean, I was probably higher than most on Zagunis last offseason ... and now that he's performed in the higher levels ... I still say that if you just looked at Zagunis' attributes and forgot the name for a moment (potentially strong defensive OF, great approach/discipline, has some gap power), you'd think him to be a far more intriguing asset than most view him to be (now, there are some questions on that swing, unless something changed that I wasn't paying attention to). For the first time in a long time, our MI depth looks fairly thin, but Paredes is there, although I'm still sort of wait and see on what he becomes. The system entering last offseason, simply put, was not as exciting as it seems now, IMO. If I had to stab at a top 10 ... 1. Eloy - Happ bothers me, and Eloy's ceiling is really that big. 2. Happ - I don't particularly love Happ, but I think he settles down in AA in 2017 and is knocking on the door as another multi-position guy for Maddon by year's end. Anyhow, the arms are too far away. 3. Cease - Ceiling is huge, but far away. Was tempted to go with Cease over Happ. 4. de la Cruz - The strong run, albeit SSS, at SB, and his ceiling, has me intrigued to see if he can follow up on it in 2017 and perhaps see AA at some point. I see Tom's point, and I guess we'll have to wait and see how de la Cruz's FB plays as he moves up, but I think at this stage,nothing's really changed in how I view his ceiling. 5. Zagunis - I started Zagunis really high last offseason as well (higher than this) and eventually talked him down a bit ... but again ... strip away the name, and the attributes are that of a solid OF prospect who has reached the upper levels far faster than anyone really thought. 6. Clifton - Really hard to deny what a wonderful year he had in MB. I still sort of waffle on him as a future rotation asset, so am very curious how his stuff plays in AA. 7. Candelario - I really like him, but it was such a up and down season for him. Still, youth, offensive upside, defensive improvement is on his side. Clearly tops the list of possible mid-season trade asset to fill position of need, so really hoping he gets off to a huge start. 8. Hudson - I somewhat overlooked him earlier, but he was always a work in progress, and so far ... nothing has been that alarming to jump off the upside. 9. Albertos - somewhat cautious, but yeah, the reports did seem that good. Once upon a time, Jen-Ho Tseng hit upper 90's as well. Now, different situation, as this was done stateside, but really want to see more before I get that excited. 10. Paredes - If I got that excited over Marco Hernandez reports from Arizona way back in the day ... then I should be intrigued enough with Paredes now (and I am ... far better system now). I was tempted to go Jose Paulino here. Was actually pondering DJ Wilson here briefly. Thought about Hatch as well. ____ Last year, I thought the system was more in that 15-22 range. We're in the era where really good or really bad systems (depending on the state of the major league team) will occur more, but this feels like, at a quick glance, a borderline top 10 system depending on how you view the ceiling. Considering the immense losses, the young ML squad, and the lower drafting positions, that's awesome.