toonsterwu

Its an odd move, but they got a decent young arm to work with. Orioles get a shortstop to replace Hardy next year, but probably were better off keeping young arm, imo.

With Orioles selling, wouldn't be surprised if Nats went for someone like Brad Brach, if made available. Still, Brach should be in high demand. I had sorta wondered about Brach as a closer option this winter, but the Orioles were stupidly stubborn (could've moved Brach, moved Givens to setup, still had O'Day). You know, for all the talk about this being an underwhelming return ... I just don't know why. Treinen was a solid reliever last year, a useful middle reliever if used correctly. Luzardo is an injury arm with high upside, and Neuse looks like he could be a Josh Harrison-esque guy, and while that doesn't sound like much, it's a useful major leaguer. The trade, like the Cubs trade, seems fair to me.

I like Neuse enough, so this trade seems fine to me. At the end of the day, it was a trade the Nats couldn't pass on. They need all the pen help they can get, and with Ross out, they have to shift options around. Giving up last year's 2nd and 3rd sucks, but is a livable price for them. Don't think this rules out additional pen moves for them, namely, if Robertson's price comes down.

I understand the deal, appreciate the value assessment, but I don't particularly love the deal. It's not an issue of Quintana. Love the contract, like the pitcher enough. It's more an issue that I'm not sure this team was at an all-in move position to thin out the system this much. It's an uphill climb this year. Still, Quintana was as much a buy for the next few years, allowing them to allocate financial resources with much more flexibility. While there isn't much to really love about Flete, there's a little part of me that wonders if he might be Josh Harrison-ish and find himself a major league career as a late bloomer (granted, Harrison was never really a late bloomer in the way Flete was).

Little has some bargaining leverage. I could still see Lange a touch under as he's made no secret he's gone, but my guess is it comes in around slot.

Still think JJ Schwarz can catch, but a team has to be patient, since he's still relatively raw back there, with Rivera grabbing all the reps. ===== As for the Cubs draft, I'm fine with it. Not super-excited, but I'm fine with it. I actually liked Lange a bit, but the problem is, the fastball dipping already has me a bit concerned. It's hard to imagine, but not impossible, that his fastball will pick back up. Abbott seems like a nice-looking guy with a mid-rotation ceiling, and Little has some upside left for a college arm. Still, it's not impossible that we end up with three pen arms here, although hopefully not. Considering where we were drafting and how the draft fell, I'm fine with these three picks. They went after organizational need, have some relatively safety that could lead to some quick movement, and they all have some potential. It actually reminds me of the 08 pitching heavy draft (Cashner/Shafer/Carpenter/Bristow/Leverton/Jackson/Coleman/McDaniel and so forth) a bit.

I have never been huge on Bukauskus. I think he's a pen arm. A really good one, but ... I'm just not convinced he's a long term starter. I mean, I wasn't huge on Fulmer, and I liked Fulmer better than Bukauskus. This isn't to say he can't be a starter. I just think there's work that needs to be done, so never saw the hype of him as a high first type of guy. Against pro hitters that have detailed scouting reports, teams will go up there and sit on the breaking stuff, IMO.

In the category of the only person that really cares is me, UVA does have two seniors that could be nice senior sign types if we need to go cheap somewhere. Robbie Coman is a bat-first catcher, the type of stick that should find a role in a system for a little bit. I don't have any thoughts that he'll be a big leaguer, despite having a good bat for the ACC. Alec Bettinger actually has some "stuff" - 91-93 with some late action and a solid slilder, a middle relief profile. He struggled as a starter at UVA, was inconsistent as the closer, and settled this year into a fireman's role of sorts, where he was quite successful and found improved command. For those that remember him, think Alessandro Maestri with more action, less velocity on the fastball. Only UVA non-senior guy I could really see us drafting is Tommy Doyle (maybe Ernie Clement, but I don't know if they need to draft a college middle infielder relatively high. Anyhow, I note the seniors because I don't think we need to do anything too fancy with those two picks. I'd stick with the guy they like the best on the board, and if necessary, fill in some spots with senior signs. With the rawness of the youngsters in the lower levels, and the need for many of those guys to get reps and opportunities ... I just don't see a need to get too fancy, and if there's a guy that falls and they really want at 27 and they want to over-slot it ... I'd be open to that as well.

It's been awhile, so I may be off about this, but back in the Hendry era, IIRC, they generally put the better/more developed players on DSL1, I believe, while, I think DSL2 was used more as an acclimating environment/teaching area. Again, been awhile and obviously a different regime, so I may be off about it, and no clue what Arguello or AzPhil are referencing, but off the top, that's how I remembered it from back then.

I'd trade Happ over Eloy in a second. We can afford to gamble on potential, and I'm not convinced yet that Happ had made major jumps from what he was. Eloy, if he pans out, is a higher level talent than Happ, and worth the short term gamble. Two names to throw in there (may have been mentioned) dependent on how their teams do ... a) Yu Darvish - An impending FA, if Texas falls out, I could really see them move him to replenish a system that's been thinned out badly. b) Felix Hernandez - There's a lot of money left, but he's aging, and if Seattle falls out, now that they finally have a young ace in Paxton after the struggles with Hultzen/Walker, I wonder if they might move Felix. Of course, he needs to pitch well. If they ate a lot of money, it'd be at least a thought. I'm not against trading BOTH guys ... but I can't think of many names I would do that for. It'd have to be a guy in his prime, and still cost-controlled in some fashion (whether it be through arbitration or contract).

This is a very different point from the Cubs not being able to put together a package at all. Of course there will be competition, but the vast majority of better systems are with bad teams so we're dealing with not even a handful. From there even fewer will have the motivation to actually make a big trade, whereas the Cubs are losing a TOR pitcher + at least another starter this offseason. From there if the Cubs were to offer a Baez or Almora with Jimenez I would imagine there is no team matching that up top. That's a cheap, young MLer a selling/bad team can slide right into their lineups plus a top prospect with whatever else. ---- There's zero shot at Cease being the center of a trade for a SP, but that's fine. Just speaking hypothetically because I have some time on my hand right now, but I can think of a handful of teams that might be able to compete close enough with some sort of Almora/Baez and JImenez package up top, and have depth pull it out. It'd come down to what teams are looking for. Actually, I really don't see the Cubs moving Almora at all. Baez maybe, but I think they like Almora too much and he's "their guy" after all (not that I think being their guy would influence things if they liked a deal). Astros - To my own surprise, Derek Fisher has been better than I thought, and he's basically ready for a look. If a team's looking for arm talent in return, and the Astros go shopping for a starter, the ability to toss in a Francis Martes (still intriguing despite his command struggles so far) or the guy I like better, David Paulino, would be a factor. Sure, Baez/Jimenez is "better" on some generalized value assessment, but a possible starting corner OF and some intriguing, good ceiling, high level arms is close enough. Red Sox - Dombrowski not making a big trade would shock. I don't think they should move him, and if they did, I think it'd be for pitching, but Rafael Devers is looking really excellent and closer to being ready than I thought. Pair him with say, Sam Travis, and that's a nice power combination for some small market team. Indians - I really don't expect the Indians to go after pitching, but if they did, the best backstop in the minors (IMO) in Mejia (prefer him to Kelly) and someone like Triston McKenzie ... that'd be a tantalizing package, although it would be a total win now move thinning out the system. Brewers - if they manage to stick around, they have the system to pull of a big trade easily. Yankees - There seems to be some rumor-mongering that they would consider moving Clint Frazier in a deal, and with Gleyber in the system, Jorge Mateo could be shopped, and there's quality arms. Cardinals - If they really opted to shop for an arm, being able to dangle Carson Kelly in a trade means they could mix and match with the rest of the system. Yes, Baez/Eloy sounds great, and if it's just a two man deal, it'd be a tough one to crack but there are teams that can come close enough to match and it would come down to what the selling team prefers/was looking for. _____

My thinking is sort of down the middle right now. At this juncture in the team's development, we have to develop some arms at some point. It's simply hard to continually buy (or trade for) arms, and as risky as arm development is, you have to roll the dice at some point on some guys. This is the right point, with our young core in place, to allow for a chance for some pitcher development. Again, not saying i wouldn't move Cease in a package for at all, but there's very few trades I would even remotely consider moving him right now. It'd basically have to be a relatively top young arm, entering or at the start of his prime, and still cost-controlled. Anyhow, reason I say I'm in the middle, Eloy's in a level by himself, particularly with his hot start. I'd part with Happ over Cease, though. I like Happ, don't love him, think he can be a quality starter but not sure if he's really made the significant jumps from last year that his early run so far has suggested. Actually, you want to talk about a guy that feels like he's tailor made for Oakland - Happ feels like it if they move him back to the corner OF. They've never really deviated from buying cost-controlled power.

Leaving aside the question of what Gray is right now (I think he's more in that nice mid-rotation arm group, but seems like you are acknowledging that as well based on a previous post), I'm not sure those three necessarily are tailor-made for the A's. They've always emphasized power with positional assets, due to their difficulty in buying it, and an increasing focus on defense. I think Candelario fits ... not sure about Zagunis, and Caratini is somewhat in the middle for my thought process right now. The issue with Candelario is they have Matt Chapman, and while Chapman's hit tool is debatable, his glove his superb and he has far better power than Candelario. That said, based on recent history, I could see Beane/Forst perhaps willing to gamble on lower level upside a bit to complete a deal, particularly if he's thinking 2-3 years down the line. ____ I'm not really convinced the Cubs move Cease unless it's in the absolute perfect deal, for a young starter who is somewhat cost-controlled. Hoyer has noted before how the ideal is having some young, high ceiling arms come through, and Epstein has always noted an affinity for power arms, but that they couldn't go that route early in the rebuild. With the young core in place, I find it hard to envision scenarios where they would move their most promising ace-level arm (and I say this as a huge Oscar de la Cruz fan, but he has a ways to go to get into that category).

He could potentially, but I'm not sure if I want him to. Only way you move him is if it's in a package for a relatively young starter, and even then, at some point, you have to gamble on developing your own arms. Now, I'm not saying I wouldn't move Cease ... just that it'll come down to the Cubs own situation and cost.

Okay, maybe I should've phrased it differently. Yes, we can go into the deep end, but can we win it? It's tough to imagine, with so many teams with deep farm systems competitive, that we can, unless they happen to really love our guys for some reason.

They absolutely do A lot of these elite arm, big trades requires two top level prospects to ship out, and much as I have said I like the system's depth this year moreso than past years, there are plenty of teams with more quality depth than us. Like I noted, yes, you can piece together, say, Javier Baez, Eloy Jimenez and others and come up with a very good package of realistic pieces the Cubs may move, but beyond the fact that I'm not sure the Cubs are going to dip that hard, you can also find competitive packages in other systems, and it becomes an issue of perspective. If the Cubs don't move someone from the MLB roster, it becomes much harder to piece together a deal. Still doable, something like Eloy and Happ and more, but that's not that big a deal that you couldn't envision some team stepping up to match/beat it. Again, only talking about the elite arms of the market that would constitute a big trade.

I tend to think that the Cubs may end up looking in the stopgap/rental bin more than many people are thinking. The main thing is, we really don't have the chips to make that big trade (and leaving aside, as UK noted above, baseball etiquette would likely suggest that Cole/Quintana would not be dealt to us). I mean, sure we can talk about packages we can put together (something like Javy/Eloy) to nab an elite arm, but a) I'm not sure the Cubs are going to dip that hard b) Even then, it's not impossible to think of teams that may be able to match or top that, depending on perspective On a secondary note, I think the deeper pen will lead them to consider playing for capable innings. If there is ceiling, it's likely to be a Jake Arrieta type situation - a guy that needs a change of scenery. Of course, reality is , many guys that fall into that category are done, and Arrieta was a very unique situation. I mean, I'm not sure how gung-ho I'd be about going after, say, Matt Harvey, despite the pedigree. Whatever quality arm gets put on the market is likely to cause a feeding frenzy. Who knows, maybe they can make wine out of water, or whatever the saying is that's slipping my mind right now.

I really don't have any expectations or high hopes on Duncan Robinson. He's the type of arm that, to me, has to prove it each step up the ladder, however fair or unfair that may be, as it was with Kyle Hendricks for me. That said ... a strike-throwing older college arm who, if the old reports still hold, is in the low 90's and has a solid curveball? Enough for me to feel that a) Would like to see him stay in the rotation ahead of a couple of the guys in South Bend (he's getting regular work, but would still prefer a guy starting) b) If he keeps performing, wouldn't mind seeing him pushed up during the summer Again, don't have any high expectations (he's doing what he should do so far ... beating up on young kids because of his command and polish, but at his age (23) ... would like to see if the strike-throwing capability holds and if he can get outs at a higher level. Maybe he's more Jeremy Null in the end, but I'd rather find out sooner than later.

First 2 outings, but your point remains. 22 IP, 17 H, 4 R, 13/8 K/BB, 0 HR his last 4 starts. Even that first outing wasn't that bad. Not great, but not that bad. I felt like some big cheerleader for Hudson this past winter, which I'm not. My point on Hudson all winter was that, if you liked him before, I don't see any reason to jump off significantly yet (downgrading him a notch or two, okay, but some people were jumping off). Here was a tall, lanky kid, still physically maturing when he joined the organization. It was always going to take time, and last year, there were specific reports about him focusing on mechanics and specific pitches, IIRC. It's a big year for Hudson, though. He needs to show some level of progress. Now, I actually expect he could go through a cold spell at some point where he looks awful, so I'm talking at season's end and judging his overall development. I really wouldn't move him from South Bend all year, even if he gets hot. He's the type of kid that, as of now, should go a level at a time. Still only 20.

Eh ... 22 innings of work, albeit excellent work ... if they decide to move him up, great, but I'm perfectly fine leaving Torrez at AA.

I admit, I might be missing some jokes these days, as I'm not around as much, so if this is some joke, I apologize, but ... peak Jeff Cirillo, in his early Brewers days, off the top, was a really good player, and Gleyber looks like he'll offer more value defensively, and offensively, he might end up being better. Now, I'm not sure how much that power holds, although there was always an undercurrent of belief that he'd add some power ... but I'm impressed with his overall offensive development.

Now here's a kid that's easy to get excited about, and someone who is a testament to the teaching in the system building and developing an arm, as by most accounts, he's physically matured and gotten better. It's been a fairly exciting start, and much as I love potential like de la Cruz, or even Albertos (although ... I still am not sure how excited I should be on that one), Clifton's getting it done at AA and is off to such a stellar start. I thought mid-late 2019 would be the earliest that Clifton got a crack at the majors, but ... with the way he's going, if he keeps this up, it's not unreasonable to think that he may see Iowa at some point, meaning he could get a possible look late this year. Love the fact that he's getting a healthy amount of K's, the command is holding fairly steady (we've seen plenty of guys falter hitting AA). There were some questions heading into the year if that stuff could hold up that well in AA, and so far so good. Sure, his ceiling isn't huge, but a 22 year old pitching well in AA is something that's going to attract some attention, and he may develop into a quality trade asset at mid-season.

Does it even matter that I've singled out the HR multiple times as what drags down the outing? That makes 4 in 4 IP this year and 5 in 44 High A IP overall. Fine in the majors, meh at the A ball levels, and the competition doesn't get easier. I agree that the home runs are not ideal, but I'm not that worried yet about it. He's still polishing up consistency on his breaking ball and working on his changeup. That said, I haven't been that enthused with de la Cruz's season. I haven't been down on it either, and I'm a huge de la Cruz fan. Sort of in between. He had a run early in the year where guys were tagging him with hits a fair amount. He's had 3 solid starts in a row, though. I want to see how that progresses over the course of the season, and I hope to see more K's from him as the season progresses as there was agreement that the breaking ball had plus potential, and at that level, a big fastball and a potential plus breaking ball should lead to a fair amount of K's. He's basically everything you hope for in a pitching "model". If you are building a pitcher, you want a guy with a frame like his, a good athlete, someone that has a big, plus fastball with late action, a potential plus breaking ball, some belief that the change has projection as well. That said, there's been a lot of guys that look good and it doesn't translate as they don't get polished enough, so we'll see.

See, I would challenge both of you on that notion. This isn't to say that I think either of those ideas would happen. That said, certainly, Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer haven't shied away from a deal if they felt it benefited their club. I mean, one only has to look at the Nomar trade they made with the Cubs in 04 - Minnesota, IIRC, was a prime challenger in the AL that year. Andrew Friedman hasn't shied away from deals with potential competitors - he dealt Shields and 5 years of Wade Davis away to get Wil Myers initially, with the Royals coming off a good season, before flipping Myers in a trade for Souza Jr. (and Jake Bauers, amongst others). Mike Rizzo has never been shy on pulling the trade on any deal, no matter how it looks. Granted, yes, most of this happens in the offseason, but there's no indication that any of these guys would shy away if they liked it for their team (after all, Rizzo pulled an Adam Eaton deal this offseason that, while I liked it (granted, no one can predict injury), plenty of people bashed). In this case, my point on the two options would be this: a) Nationals - There's desperate pen need, with high pen costs. There's SP depth that they could potentially turn to. They might not be able to wait until the deadline (and Victor Robles has gotten off to a poor start, so it's debatable if they could trade for whatever top end pen option frees up). If Koda Glover and others can't hold the fort, it's not hard for me to imagine them making a small move or two for solid pen arms, the type of guys we might be able to peddle. To be honest, I think their pen will slowly sort itself out, at least, enough so they won't be pressured to make a move. b) Dodgers - There's pitching depth with Alex Wood emerging (again) to go with Kershaw/Hill/Maeda). It's not hard to imagine they might want to cut costs and consider moving Ryu (and McCarthy has, IIRC, been shopped repeatedly along with ... crap, whose the name I'm forgetting ... he's rehabbing right now ... dangit, who is it ... ). Now, more than likely, they'd find a team more desperate for SP help that is willing to step up, but if not, with short term commitments on some of those arms (off the top, I think McCarthy and Ryu are only signed through 2018), it's not a bad fit for us. Of the two, I actually think the Dodgers are more likely than the Nationals, as Mike Rizzo is probably apt to try and make a big splash compared to Andrew Friedman, IMO, if he went after a deal, and the Dodgers are overloaded (this is assuming guys stay healthy and pitch well).

I don't believe he's been mentioned but something I'm keeping an eye out on are the Nationals. With Erick Fedde looking like he could jump to the bigs this year, plus their desperate need for pen help and the high price that the White Sox have placed on Robertson, I do wonder if there's some sort of match that can be made with us trading pen depth for someone like Joe Ross. Of course, there are those that feel Joe Ross is destined for the pen long term, but if Fedde's ready and the rotation's stable in front, with capable stopgaps in guys like Cole/Voth ... I wonder. To be honest, if we're looking for a rental, feels like there's quite likely to be a way to make something work with the Dodgers that wouldn't be too troubling. In the deep recesses of my mind ... I wonder if the Rockies may shop some of their pitching depth if they are able to hang in the race. That said, it's hard to see how we might match up with their needs. With the Nationals, it's easy - desperate for pen help, Fedde coming up. WIth the Rockies, they are bound to let some of their bats (namely, Story and Gonzalez) get some time to get going. This is a totally different tack than the intent of the question, but for all the talk about Candelario lacking the talent to headline a deal to nab a top arm ... I wonder if he could nab an intriguing younger arm in the lower levels if a team had an injury that necessitated a need for a 3rd baseman, and wanted more than a stopgap option. Of course, a lot of dominoes would have to fall into place, and the Cubs would probably look for bigger fish first. Say .. an injury happened to Castellanos of the Tigers. I wonder if they would consider something like Candelario for a Burrows led package, or even Manning, and we'd go fishing for rentals for this year, adding depth to our future. Or if something happened to Chase Headley and they didn't want to rush Gleyber, and the Yankees were still in it, I wonder if we could pry some sort of Chance Adams or Justus Sheffield? At the end of the day, with the way the system's set up, barring a Greinke type move that eats money, I'm more inclined to think they may move for a stopgap this year and worry about the future in the winter.