toonsterwu

As a side note, still think the Diamondbacks pulled the Archie Bradley as a starter option too quickly. Granted, not like they needed it ... but still think he could make a solid starter if a team is patient.

I'd rather try to get a starter next to a closer, even if it's a 5th starter option. Something like Iglesias and uh ... Sal Romano? Not sure if the Reds do that. Was thinking something like Hector Neris/Nick Pivetta/maybe another piece might be workable.

Most indications have been that they aren't going to move Walker (although out of all their starters, he'd be the one I'd be most worried about will regress a bit ... ). Happ for Walker does make sense for both parties, particularly since they may want to lock down Robbie Ray asap. I don't think Schwarber makes that much sense for them, as first base is a position they are deep in after Goldschmidt (well, not deep, but they have an impact talent in Pavin Smith in the minors). Edit: Should add, I'm not inclined to see Hazen throw Schwarber in the OF, and Pavin Smith may eventually be asked to play the OF if they remain competitive and sign Goldschmidt down. Most season ending reviews that I've read on them seem to suggest that, while they can't afford JD Martinez at the expected rate, they could probably do a thing or two, particularly if they manage to shop a starter (like Corbin). That Torres contract is somewhat hampering them (wonder if they try to dump that contract by locking someone with it, say Patrick Corbin and just taking lottery ticket returns). Tbh ... if they buy that all their starters are legit, then moving Greinke's contract makes the most sense. Edit: Running their numbers quickly and guesses at arbitration, I have them, for 2018, in the low 90's. They had a starting the year high of 112 million a few years ago. Sure feels like they could probably fit a contract in without a huge concern. If we'd only known about Zack Godley huh ... granted, no regrets on that deal, but never thought Zack Godley would be this good.

Yeah, I should've said 2/30.5. If Kipnis had shoulder problems, that could explain his offensive woes early. That said, if his value is that low, I'd much rather take that chance than pay Cozart for his mid-late 30's at a rate likely to be higher than what Kipnis would get over those seasons. I also wouldn't rule out Cozart potentially getting a 5th year of some sort (team option/vesting option/performance based, whatever). I will add if mlbtr's prediction of 3/42 is correct, then okay. I've got a hard time seeing a market with few impact bats and almost no meaningful MI talent have the clearcut top guy getting 3/42. I could see 4/56. 3/42 ... I'd be stunned, even if they are correct that few teams are searching for MI. As a darkhorse Cozart team ... I really wonder about the Diamondbacks. Their MI options were Ketel Marte and uh, Brandon Drury this past year, amongst others. Cozart would upgrade the defense and give them an impact bat to replace the departing JD Martinez, and with a bat in place, they'd have more flexibility on filling the OF spot than having to find an impact OF bat.

Should be noted that I think Kipnis was struggling with a shoulder injury at the start of the year, before the hamstring acted up mid-summer. Read it in some Indians season review, and that would definitely explain a slow start. He showed some signs of life in May/June before the hamstring hit. Granted, nothing was close to his previous performance, so it's a concern.

Yeah, he was pretty bad, and with their growing payroll, chopping him off makes sense. It's a gamble I'd probably roll on if the trade cost was as low as Sherman seems to think. Maybe I'm just not as high on Gsellman and the other arm - I just don't see much to excite me about Gsellman, but I'm not digging too deeply on non-Cubs guys these days. Granted, I can see the flip side. If Kipnis somehow is "broken", then we have two highly expensive utility options in Kipnis/Zobrist.

In his mock, Giants would give up Cueto/Arroyo/Corry for Stanton, with the Cueto return going to finish the Stanton deal. The theory makes sense - Giants lack the top flight talent to likely entice the Marlins to make such a deal, even if they eat the entire deal. Just not sure that mock makes sense for the other two teams. Marlins - Taking on Zobrist, while still having Prado ... that's a lot of money they'd need to shed to reach their goals. Also, not too big on Arroyo/Corry, but that's me and others like them enough. Cubs - Cueto's deal. Cueto literally has zero value. They've got us sending Happ for the purpose of getting rid of Zobrist. Its an awful deal for us and the Giants are giving up next to nothing. I don't disagree with that. I was just remarking about it because you said they were giving up Arroyo and a project arm (which I assumed was a comment on Corry ... but I guess it could've been a comment on Cueto).

huh? What's ridiculous?

In his mock, Giants would give up Cueto/Arroyo/Corry for Stanton, with the Cueto return going to finish the Stanton deal. The theory makes sense - Giants lack the top flight talent to likely entice the Marlins to make such a deal, even if they eat the entire deal. Just not sure that mock makes sense for the other two teams. Marlins - Taking on Zobrist, while still having Prado ... that's a lot of money they'd need to shed to reach their goals. Also, not too big on Arroyo/Corry, but that's me and others like them enough. Cubs - Cueto's deal.

Honestly, I keep thinking, if that's all Kipnis costs ... I would desperately want to get in on Kipnis. He'd be so good for us offensively (I guess I am assuming he gets back to form). Baez (or Russell) are more likely to net a big time impact arm, particularly one that is young and cost-controlled, than Happ/Schwarber/Almora. A lineup like L 2nd, Kipnis R 3rd, Bryant L 1st, Rizzo R C, Contreras L LF, Schwarber/Happ R SS, Russell L RF, Heyward R CF, Almora looks absolutely tantalizing, seems strong defensively, and the rotation would likely be boosted by whatever mega-trade Baez gets shopped in. Dunno, maybe I just have a weird desire for adding Kipnis.

I don't want to start a thread for this, but I didn't see it being discussed anywhere. Have people read Joel Sherman's mock trades? His focus is on the Yankees, Mets, and Marlins, but one of the trades involves the Cubs, while he muses about another trade that involves someone oft-discussed here and a former Cub. Now, he fully admits that this is an exercise to basically facilitate discussion, but it's interesting to read some nuggets he tosses in there, along with his perspective on value. http://nypost.com/2017/11/11/trades-the-yankees-mets-and-jeter-could-make-this-week/ 1. Mets send Robert Gsellman and Luis Guillorme to the Indians for Jason Kipnis. He notes that a NL Exec thought the Indians were open to moving Kipnis and might even eat some money. Honestly, if he feels that's appropriate value for Kipnis in this market ... I'd love for the Cubs to find a way in. Let's forget the whole he's a lifelong Cubs fan thing ... when healthy ... he's good. 2. Yankees send Starlin Castro, Tyler Austin and Luis Cessa to the Giants for Joe Panik. I don't really care about this mock. His rationale makes sense, but I have my doubts the Giants would do that. What caught my eye was at the very end of this section where he says Yes, there is Ellsbury in there that somewhat controls things, but I didn't think I would see anyone else, besides me, suggest an elite prospect/top young talent in a Samardzija trade. And Frazier is pretty damn high up there. 3. Marlins get Christian Arroyo, Seth Corry from the Giants, and Ian Happ and Ben Zobrist from the Cubs; the Giants get Stanton; and the Cubs get Johnny Cueto. So I get the construct of this deal. I toyed with a mock like this involving Samardzija instead. Getting rid of Zobrist would be nice, though, from a financial and roster spot perspective. I'll be honest - I'm not too enthused with Cueto and would rather build a deal around Samardzija. At his best, sure his top level is better than Samardzija's, but his velocity seems to be declining, and well, there's 4/89 left (5 million buyout for 2022). Sure, getting out of the remaining 2/28 for Zobrist helps, but ... I don't know, I've never been as high on Cueto as his performances probably indicate one should be. Tbh, I have a hard time seeing the Marlins agree to that deal unless that's the only deal they can get. I don't particularly love Arroyo or Corry, though.

I agree, it is rather rare to hear a FA talk so openly about things because it could be construed, to other teams, as a sign, and as a result, could somewhat limit said player's market. That said, it is a somewhat unique scenario with his former manager plus his recently fired pitching coach. Hey, I'll be the first to say despite all my cold water attempts, it does feel like things are lining up on Cobb (although I still have doubts that it's 4/48, or whatever has been rumored. I wouldn't be shocked if it's closer to say, 4/60, and more importantly, I wouldn't be shocked if they tried to negotiate some sort of Wei-Yin Chen contract (that is, a multi-year deal where the player has the ability to opt out and get back into FA, but to protect the team, the contract gets a bit backloaded). In this case, it sorta makes sense for Cobb - he's a good FA asset now ... but another full year's of work, plus if he gets closer to his 2013/2014 form ... and he could be looking at a Jeff Samardzija/Wei-Yin Chen type contract from a few winters ago.

Toronto says no because if they wanted to move, they are better off moving the pieces separately. I know the majority of reactions will be I'm off on this, but a cost-controlled Osuna with 3 years of top closing experience is a prime asset in this environment, someone who can likely notch an impact prospect package on his own. Happ, at 1 year and 13 million left, can likely net something decent due to teams wanting to avoid the long term commitments of FA. Stroman should be able to net an elite package by himself. I like all our guys, I still have a fascination with de la Cruz if he could ever get healthy, I can see Alzolay perhaps jumping up next mid-season and pulling a Luis Castillo (if given the opportunity ... performance wise, they aren't that similar as pitchers). I get the arguments on Happ/Schwarber's years of control, but with recent history in mind, I really am not sold that the Blue Jays can't get more impact by moving them separately. That leaves aside that Shapiro and Co. seem to be trying to retool and not rebuild. That does allow for a pivot into what it might take to get JA Happ. It might be one of those "safe" routes to take - I could definitely see Toronto moving him, and Happ's one year might be appealing to the organization if the FA contracts go crazy. Furthermore, maybe instead of a flier as the 5th starter, they could slot Happ in there, if the trade price is right. Sorta tough to figure. Looking at past trades isn't a great guide, as there haven't been many comparable trades to what a Happ trade might cost, leaving aside the fact that all trades exist within a limited environment. I tend to think a couple 2nd tier prospects could probably get it done, but obviously, if that's what it took, the Blue Jays would have a decent market and likely get to pick and choose what they prefer. That said, if they somehow prefer our 2nd tier prospects, an off-season combo of say, Alex Cobb and JA Happ would be an excellent way to fill the rotation.

Yeah, I mentioned McHugh in another thread. He seems the most likely one to move - Peacock/Morton are cheaper and both coming off key runs, and Keuchel/Verlander/McCullers Jr. are plugged in. Salazar worries me, but as a flier, sure. That said, doubt they deal him as a flier. I've got zero interest in Odorizzi. Zero. Give me a cheap flier on someone else instead. Andriese/Graveman are nice end of the rotation options, I guess, if the price is right. As for the top guys on that list, not really sure the Rays move anyone right now. Rotation is fairly thin ... Archer/Snell and then they are looking at Andriese/Honeywell/Faria. Mixed feelings on Manaea - sort of feels like he's still carrying his draft hype. All that said, as much as Beane/Forst like to trade ... moving Manaea with this many years left? They'd want an arm and a leg. Same holds for Fulmer, and I'm concerned Fulmer is more a power innings eater than anything else. Someone needs to add ... a splitter? ... something to his repetoire. It's all power stuff - decent power stuff, but at some point, without some variance, he just won't be able to explot hitters. I just don't see Nola getting moved when they are close to starting their window. Of that list, my guess, if anyone gets moved ... I'd go Fulmer (Avila fully acknowledges its a rebuild, and despite the years of control, if he can net an arm and a leg for Fulmer, I think he might) ... and maybe Manaea (perhaps a case of Beane/Forst selling high?).

Provided the dollars and years are okay, he's really the only FA pitcher I sorta want. Even then, I have some concerns, but I'm not enthused about the years and cost of the high end, and I really am not keen on the rest of the middle tier. Get Cobb, take a couple SP fliers/cheap options, add a closer, and the pitching side is fairly set. All that said, he may want to come here, but the market is going to dictate things, and plenty of teams are flush with money.

Out of curiosity, how much would you want the Tigers to pick up (assuming Heyward waived NTC and this was being discussed)? Heyward is what, 21.5/20/21 over 2018-2020. Zimmerman is 24/25/25. If you are simply talking balancing it out (say 3.5/5/4) over the next three years, okay, but it sounds like you are suggesting more than that.

Cobb is an easy one. I'd be willing to make the 5th starter more speculative(e.g. a Montgomery-esque trade, an FA like Hellickson/Vargas) if it meant they were able to get Darvish and make 1-4 in the rotation that strong. I'm open to signing Chatwood but I don't think the front office is going to be a big believer(I've outlined earlier the walks are a big deal). The specter of Otani looms a bit here too. Most importantly though, I think the trade market for Happ or Happ-headlined packages is able to get you a SP with a higher ceiling than Samardzija, a better contract situation, or both. If the Cubs are willing to spend on Darvish or get Otani, then yes, that's the preferable route. I don't really care for Chatwood. Honestly, if they are going Chatwood (and I don't expect them to), give me Wade Miley on a short and/or incentive-laden, deal. So yes, I don't disagree that I would hope to net someone younger with potential (I'd argue that Samardzija is much better than people think and to say higher ceiling, the only thing would be to get someone younger as few guys clearly better than Shark now aren't going to be moved) if moving Happ, but you eventually run into the problem that ... most teams are over-protective of their young arms. Eventually, you run into very few teams that seem to make sense (a straight swap of Taijuan Walker for Ian Happ, on paper, makes sense for both sides, but all indications are that the Diamondbacks, despite their rotationd epth, won't move Walker (with the obvious caveat of if it's too stupid to pass up, Hazen probably wouldn't)). In this window, the Cubs probably aren't going to target high level prospects to fill holes, so we eventually run into the problem of who? Carlos Rodon might make some sense (depending on his medicals) and that's an org that's willing to move guys. I half thought about Blake Snell, but he had a superb 2nd half amidst reports that he was starting to learn and adjust. So there is that think layer of Stroman/Archer, but those two would take far more than Happ, in all likelihood, and I'm not sure either team is ready to move either one yet.

This FO has already made the argument/point that they'll place value in marginal improvements if they believe that could be enough of a critical bump to establish as a way to separate the team. Albeit, that was moreso in a mid-season deal, but they've gone swan dive in on this window right now. As a total side note and point to reiterate, I was just throwing something out there. I've said before my preference is probably Cobb (or a trade for someone younger, like a Taijuan Walker, if possible ... dunno if I've specifically said that this winter, but that'd obviously be a preferable route). Furthermore, I really like Austin Slater. I actually doubt the Giants move him. If they can fit in Stanton without giving Shark up, wouldn't surprise me if they get Slater in there as a top of the order hitter and just made Span their 4th OF. I wouldn't exactly compare Slater to Happ. He's more ... probably a mix of Happ and La Stella.

Sure ... if that option is available. Again, I'm simply presenting an option for discussion, and again, if you can sign a guy and save the prospects, fine (although I tend to think Samardzija will be better than Cobb, but they are close enough). So to make this a discussion then ... which FA SP's would you go with then? I know you've mentioned it elsewhere ... but let's say Cobb doesn't sign. I'm scared to heck (as scared as I can be I guess) of Lynn. I think that's a train wreck waiting to happen. I just don't see much else in that 2nd tier that I really am positive about. Cobb, yes.

I understand that argument, but I think it's ... very unlikely that Jeff Samardzija is only going to net them Ademan/Zagunis/EJM. We're talking about a very good arm. Yes, contract sucks, but MLB teams are flush with me. There are a lot of clubs that are likely to spend this winter. I don't know when I became the Shark defender, but have people really looked at his season? Yes, I get the value argument, due to contract, but ... for a stretch there, he was one of the best SP's in baseball. He had a bad 2nd half, and there's some cause for concern, but I've seen people compare him to this year's John Lackey on this board, and I just don't see it. This isn't to say the value argument is off-base. This is simply to say that within this environment, where multiple teams have spending money this offseason, where he only has 3 years left on his deal, where there isn't much top pitching out there, where most teams are analytically oriented (I mean, what's the most non-analytical team out there ... Royals?) ... I'm going to be utterly stunned if all Samardzija can net is a far away middle infield prospect, albeit with some promise, and two mediocre upper level types.

Did we have this discussion before? Or was it someone else? I'm not for or against trading Samardzija. That said, a) I tend to think the trade values for quality pitching is under-valued in some mocks. It's possible this winter is different from different winters, so admittedly, have to wait and see. Still ... last year, a pedestrian Dan Straily cost the Marlins a very promising arm that had rapidly developed, akin to Adbert Alzolay. b) Samardzija was quite solid last year, ERA aside. He did taper off in the 2nd half, but he was quite dominant for a stretch, ERA aside. There was a stretch, mostly the first half, where he looked like a top 10 pitcher in baseball before tapering off a bit as the season wore on. As someone noted, the cost of innings-eating arms (like John Lackey) is costly. The cost of an innings eating arm that has shown consistency and is solid is going to cost more than one thinks. c) I think, within this window, the Cubs are going to make moves that they otherwise wouldn't make. d) So, the main point seems to be ... if we can save prospects and sign a FA, that's better. I don't disagree. I've said that before. That said, there seems to be an automatic assumption that Cobb to the Cubs is a done deal. Maybe it is, but there are a ton of teams going after him, and this kid was from the Northeast, and it's possible 1, if not 2, clubs may be looking for SP arms (wouldn't exactly rule out Dombrowski moving a lot of stuff around, although Yankees will clearly be looking for another arm). That leaves aside Cobb is likely looking for 4 years, if not more, and if he signs early, could be for far more than people are anticipating. Besides Cobb, I'm not all that enamored with the rest. Lance Lynn? Worries me that he might be falling fast. Don't see the Cubs spending big on Darvish, but if they go that route, I'm fine with it.

It depends on money. I don't think there's any way Detroit does that unless we're eating future money on Heyward. I mean, if it's a straight contract swap, I'd take it, but it seems highly unlikely Tigers would do that, to say the least. They'd at least wait to see if Zimmerman could bounce back somewhat and increase his trade value. Zimmerman's on the downswing, but the change in pitching style might have some impact on his productivity (he's really dropped his FB usage by a lot), and it's possible to see him squeeze out some decent years before it's all said and done. I keep thinking there's some sort of trade involving the Orioles/Red Sox/Tigers/Cubs that might make sense in terms of bad contract swaps (Chris Davis and Jason Heyward have close enough contracts (Davis does have deferred money) money/length wise ... Red Sox could use a 1st/DH power addition, and obviously, with the Tigers, dumping Jordan Zimmerman) but too many teams makes it tough to work out even a hypothetical that makes some sense for all the clubs.

The I-Cubs!

So, I was thinking about Giancarlo Stanton and how it seems like only a couple teams might be willing to take on the entire contract, and of them, the Giants seem the most desperate. They have such a thin system at the moment that it seems hard to construct a deal where even a modicum of decent talent goes back (that isn't loaded with OF's ... they do have some decent OF options). So, assuming they are desperate, just toying around with random thoughts ... Giants get: Giancarlo Stanton, Adam Conley Giants trade: Heliot Ramos, Chris Shaw, Andrew Suarez, Jeff Samardzija, Austin Slater, Sam Coonrod Cub get: Jeff Samardzija, Austin Slater, Sam Coonrod Cubs trade: Ian Happ, Duane Underwood Marlins get: Ian Happ, Heliot Ramos, Chris Shaw, Andrew Suarez, Duane Underwood Marlins trade: Giancarlo Stanton, Adam Conley Just toying around with an idea. Let's say Giants are desperate for Stanton, but to make it work, they have to clear some money. Samardzija is likely more movable than Melancon, and more likely to net them a quality asset. Now, if they aren't desperate to move money, and can really fit Stanton in no problems asked ... then this mock trade is shot to bits and pieces. They get Conley to throw into the back end of the rotation, while probably needing to go out on the market and sign some low cost options, or give Tyler Beede a look. Now ... that seems like a lot for the Giants to give up to get Stanton and his contract. So in some respects, it might not make sense. Cubs get Samardzija, and in response to those that feel 3 years of Samardzija isn't worth 5 years of Happ, we get some spare pieces to plug in. I like those two (Slater is a nice utility option who dabbled at 2nd/SS before and can handle all three OF spots, while Coonrod looked far more intriguing two years ago as a power arm, and then they wanted him to become a sinker/slider guy. Still, a mid-90's 4 seamer, a low 90's 2 seamer, and a good slider that flashes - there's a fit somewhere. It's either end of the rotation (changeup is pedestrian) or a late inning pen arm type). Giving up a spare piece to go with Happ is fine if it makes people happy, and Underwood has about run his course here, and it clears a 40 man spot. Cubs get to focus on pen/5th starter/depth. Marlins clear Stanton's salary. They get some high upside far away in Heliot Ramos, and Ian Happ can step in now to make a nice OF trio with Ozuna/Yelich. Chris Shaw could potentially slide in for Justin Bour now, and allow them to shop Bour. Suarez gives them a high floor starting arm (looks like he should develop into a decent end of the rotation option) while Underwood is a shot in the dark. There's probably a lot of things that could be picked apart about this mock trade. Just a random thought during lunch.

I don't disagree that Baltimore should rebuild. There's such a thin line that they are crawling about in the hopes of being competitive (idea being strong pen, power hitters (with Schoop blossoming), and then hope you get some innings eaters to go with Bundy/Gausman). I don't think they will, though, and Duquette tends to act slowly. You are forgetting about Mark Trumbo's bad contract. I'm not saying Schwarber isn't better. That said, with 3 1st/DH types, I've got a tough time seeing them add a 4th. I could see them go after someone like Almora, with the intent of sliding Adam Jones to a corner OF spot. The problem is, they still have to field a team, and the upper levels of the minors probably isn't going to provide 3 ... below average starters. Making a 4th hole would seem like a tough think to do unless they got some form of close to ready pitching in return.