toonsterwu

I am mildly curious, based off the Ozuna trade, what they would be targeting with a Yelich deal. With the fact that a) After this last trade, they are pretty deep on the pitching side, prospect wise. b) Their top pitching arms are relatively far away (Rogers/Kolek/Garrett/Guzman are all at least 3 years away, in all likelihood) It feels like, giving Jeter benefit of the doubt here, that they are looking towards, say 2020/2021 as their push years. Thus, the Cubs might conceivably be "in the game" on a Yelich trade better than I thought a few months back. It seems reasonable to think that at some point, they would target positional assets, as they are thin on the farm side. Perhaps the high upside of Ademan, probably as a second piece, could intrigue them. Still think other teams would emerge to the forefront, but something like Happ/Ademan/? would be my thought process as of now (with Sierra in there as a center fielder, seems unlikely that they would want Almora). Getting Yelich, in CF, at the top of that lineup ... would be the cherry on top, though.

I think the baseball people would. I think Angelos will step in and squash it, though. Who knows, maybe Angelos has changed. That said, the Orioles move so glacially slow on things. Based on the reports out of Baltimore, it feels like they don't think they have gotten enough yet. Problem is, barring Machado agreeing to an extension, they'll never get the mega-package they seem to think they deserve. I mean, one report that I glanced at seemed to suggest they were hoping for two from the Yankees foursome of Torres/Frazier/Sheffield/Adams. No chance is heck that the Yankees do that. Personally, I think, barring an extension, the best they could hope for is something like (just to pick a team heavily rumored) the Phillies offering say, Scott Kingery, Franklyn Kilome and maybe a lottery ticket.

Stanton trade yes. That was the one that makes them look bad. If they reinvest in the next few years, say, with Latin American signings, then who knows. As of now, yes, no doubt, that one looks bad (although based off the rumors of the Giants/Cardinals offers ... I'm not sure it looks as bad). Much as I've said I felt the Ozuna trade return was weak, I think that trade can be defended in a baseball way. Gary Denbo's MO, it seems, is to go after loose live-armed guys. Their system has some intriguing pitching upside (Rogers/Garrett/Kolek even Peters). They took a big gamble on Alcantara's upside, and if he pans out ... and I'm doubtful, but then again, I liked Chris Archer a lot coming up and there were plenty of detractors there and Alcantara's breaking ball has improved and his command looks to have improved ... that's immense upside. The thing about the Cardinals system is ... it's a lot of high floor mixed with a few pieces of upside. To balance that out, they add in Zac Gallen, who might be close to ready to help a rotation. I don't love Sierra, although the dude is fast and is a plus defensive outfielder. Again, don't love the Ozuna return ... but I think there's a definite baseball argument for it outside of "money saved". I'm more surprised that they couldn't find better offers, but maybe they fell in love with certain guys and just went from there.

I have no doubt that a large part of the Marlins motivation is "business" or "money" oriented, as is their right ... and I'm also not sure Jeter has done the best job as the "face" of the organization - the pointless fiasco with Dawson/McKeon and others seemingly could've been avoided (I guess Michael Hill is their de facto GM?... their org charts list him as the top of Baseball Ops, with the President title) but ... I don't know if tearing down is such a bad move that they need to be raked over the coal for this. The passing of Jose Fernandez changed the equation a lot for them. Before, there was a core of young players, plus a staff ace. Yeah, they needed to find other pieces, but you can find pen arms, and you can find mid-rotation SP's (as they attempted to do with Wei-Yin Chen). There was enough to think ... perhaps a little luck, even with the poor farm system. With Fernandez's passing, that opened up a gigantic hole in the rotation that they haven't fixed yet, and their lack of a farm system becomes all the more glaring. Short of it is, at it's best, the Marlin, as constructed at the end of 2017, looked like a fringe playoff team at best. A huge spending spree would at best, perhaps push them into the wildcard mix, and they would still lack a farm. Tearing down, with their specific pieces, offers them a chance to retool. It might take awhile, but it might offer a better future than what this core offered. I mean, by he start of next season, their minor league pitching depth is going to look pretty solid. A lot of pieces far away, including the returning Tyler Kolek, but there's depth of upside. If they can complete a few trades to net some solid positional prospects, they could suddenly have a strong system and in a couple years, be conceivably knocking on the door of being back ... here ... a borderline playoff team ... but with the hopes of a much better future.

I'm sticking with my Cease comparison from earlier this thread. Likely reliever. I think Cease has a better chance of being a starter. I'm a bit stunned that the Marlins got so little. It sounds like Sandy Alcantara and Magnerius Sierra are the top two guys. If so ... that's a very ... disappointing return in a seller's market. Now ... I will give Gary Denbo credit. He seems like he did a great job with the Yankees, and he knows what he's searching for. I can see Alcantara being a starter. Alcantara will never need top control ... he just needs capable control and to let his fastball run ... akin to Chris Archer coming up the ranks in some respects.

Very nice deal. Gives them an option if the market takes off. Seems like they'll try to find someone else to close, and use Morrow as a fireman of sorts.

Gausman had a really good second half. Really good. Borderline TOR good. He actually still has TOR potential ... unlike Dylan Bundy as of now. It seems fair to chalk up the early season struggles to perhaps some communications issues with a new PC and perhaps just a sign of a young guy struggling after having had some success. Should the Orioles trade him? Yes. They should trade Gausman ... Givens ... and Schoop (along with Machado/Britton/Brach). Those three could likely net big returns ... it would hurt for a year or two, but if you can get 2-3 guys to pop, plus some internal guys to develop, Orioles could be competitive by 2020. I mean, looking at this market, Gausman could bring in an impact package. A young guy, with good pedigree, still on the rise, coming off a superb 2nd half, with 2 years of arbitration? That smells like at least one top prospect, and a couple decent guys. In this era of the pen, the raw, but talented Givens, could perhaps net them a critical asset, and Schoop ... I could see plenty of teams ponying up for him (although long term, he might be best in the OF). I don't expect the Orioles to go all-out, even if they deal Machado. Reading into what Duquette has said, I think he's somehow hoping to trade a pen arm for a starter, sign a FA or two SP, and if they deal Machado, to perhaps get enough so that they can be competitive in 2019. I think that's a pipe dream - most of these major trades, if you get 1 guy that pops, it's almost always a decent enough outcome. ____ Total side comment: I wouldn't deal Bundy, just yet. The stuff isn't showing that well, and he really looks like ... JAG. You might as well hold onto him and see if he can find any of his old form for now. I also think that dealing Adam Jones would turn off the fan base a fair amount, so in his last year, you just ride it out with him unless he asks out.

I actually think Ivan Nova is going to be pretty costly if the Pirates traded him. A decent starter for several years now who is signed for 2 years at a very reasonable number? It's hard to really gauge trade costs, and clearly, he won't be in that top level trade range, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the Pirates ask for 2 solid prospects in a deal, perhaps a typical high floor upper level guy and a low level lottery type. ____ As for the last rotation spot? I think the Cubs will pursue all the higher end options, but the Yankees look like they are clearing room to make a run at something this year, and Alex Cobb always made some sense as a kid from the Northeast. The trade markets would be highly competitive, in all likelihood. My guess is that they are still planning on a top level guy, but would prefer a trade, but again, wouldn't surprise me if they signed a few fliers (Wade Miley ... heck let's go all-Orioles and go the terrible Chris Tillman on some sort of 1 year gamble) and just held the fort if they thought the price on the FA's got too high or that the trades were too costly. The 1-4 for the rotation is fine - you hope for better, but it's fine, and I'm not particularly huge on Chatwood.

Really big fan of this move. I thought they would take a flier on a lefty, but was thinking more Wade Miley, who the FO, I believe, used to be really high on (wouldn't surprise me if they took a flier on a guy like Wade Miley on top of this move, since Smyly likely won't pitch in 2018, and if he does, it'll be late in the year and probably out of the pen), but with Jim Hickey here, Drew Smyly makes sense. Always liked Smyly, and we are using our financial muscle in a positive way here ... a reasonable gamble on a guy who, when healthy, was a solid starter. Worst case is it's 10 million down the hole, but best case is we get a decent rotation option for 2019.

I've advocated for Robertson as an option, but I don't think the Cubs want to band-aid the pen each year. It wouldn't surprise me if they tried to shop Robertson with say, Jacoby Ellsbury (while eating half the deal). That would get them under enough that they could, if they wanted to, make a big splash at Alex Cobb (if he isn't signed by us yet), or to go after Darvish or Arrieta, while still being under for next year. I'm still a bit surprised that they gave away Bryan Mitchell just to get rid of Headley's deal. I mean, they were going to have to get rid of something, but Mitchell surprised me a bit.

I'm still not convinced the Orioles are definitely going down this road. I mean ... they listened on Zach Britton and took it to the wire... and then it fell apart. Furthermore, they are supposedly going for two quality cost-controlled young starters to start the deal. It's not an unreasonable ask ... I mean, Machado is good. The problem is, Machado's in his last year, and I don't see any team forking that over unless Machado agrees to an extension. I don't see Machado agreeing to anything that isn't a monster offer, and even then ... he might just want to test the market anyways. I mean, the Phillies aren't parting with Sixto Sanchez and say, Franklyn Kilome for a half-season rental. No way, no how. Leaving aside the monetary side, their search for pitching makes the Cubs a debatable fit as a trade partner.

From what I recall of the articles several months ago, it essentially was something like this - trade Stanton, and we'll try to cut down to 55 million. Don't trade Stanton, and we'll stick around 85 million. Essentially, it sounded like, to me, if Stanton's gone, it's a "closing" sale and that they might as well as just get everything bad out of the way and retool the way they want to. Thus, instead of Stanton this year, Yelich next year, Realmuto and so forth ... might as well just burn it all now and take the hit now, which ... to some extent ... makes sense.

Yeah, that 55 million number has been out there awhile, but I don't know if people ever believed that it was something that they had to achieve. If it is ... you can sorta see a path for them to chop off roughly another 50 million, but it's going to be a lot of giveaways. I think Chen is the most unlikely to be moved, but I guess if they can plop off 10 million or so of his deal, who knows. If not Chen - Starlin Castro - He's gotta go. That'd be 10 million give or take. There should be enough teams willing to take on his 2 years and an option. Ziegler/Tazawa - Combined 16 million (9/7). Their histories makes you think some team might take a shot if they weren't giving up much. Those are, probably, the easy moves. Not absolutely certain that other teams would eat the money on the relievers, but I gotta think someone might ponder it for one year, or at least, huge chunks of it. They'd still have to chop off 25 million, give or take. Then comes the hard part - 25 million to 30 million to chop off. I still believe the easiest route would be packaging Justin Bour with either Prado or Volquez and seeing if someone might bite. 3 years of Bour control, 1 to 2 at reasonable prices, while getting lefty power? Seems a great fit for say ... Fenway. The Marlins have a ready replacement in Garrett Cooper. They'd have to find something to package with the remaining bad deal, probably Prado, but if you told a team that their only shot at getting Ozuna was paying Prado for 2 years ... I wonder if a team would bite. Heck, with Dustin Pedroia out, I still wonder about a Bour/Prado package to Boston (granted, they have better 2nd base stopgap options than Prado, who might not be able to handle 2nd anymore). 55 million is doable, but they'll be essentially left with Yelich and Realmuto, and at that point, they are better off trying to move both of those guys for the best prospect packages possible and slicing it even further.

I think the Blue Jays might be stubborn enough for now, wanting to wait and see, but yes, I gotta think this increases the chances Archer is moved. The Rays are typically fairly rational about things, and this is a tough road for them to climb. That said, this might increase the chances of the Yankees getting in on Archer, and with the Nationals making rumblings about Jake Arrieta, I wouldn't be surprised if they got involved with Archer if he was on the market. With Ohtani gone, if Archer is put on the market, I think a lot of teams pivot to that instead of Darvish or Cobb, which could slow down the market even more.

Heck of a deal for the Yankees ... and honestly, that's a better prospect package than I thought the Marlins were going to get as of last night. Personally, based on the reports late last night, I was hoping things would blow up in the Marlins face. If they were stupid enough to let Giancarlo know that the talks with the Yankees were advanced enough ... then of course Giancarlo was going to exercise some power if he preferred going there to the Cardinals/Giants. There isn't a great comparable talent to Guzman in the Cubs system (I mean, I guess you could squint and see similarities with a ton of arms), but he's a legitimate arm talent. Actually, the closest guy may be someone like Dillon Maples, but Guzman seems to have better command as of now, so he'll stick in the rotation for now. Jose Devers looks like he might have some hope of sticking in the middle infield and having some bat. Starlin probably isn't for long there, although you never know. I could see a number of teams potentially get involved with Castro, with few years left and still that young. The Marlins should be able to clear salary and get some borderline talent if they wanted. Still, Yankees sort of have to make that deal. It's just too good to pass up - they have more talented arms and more talented middle infielders. They have a loaded system right now, and giving up those guys doesn't change the fact that they are loaded. They couldn't be certain on next winter, so they make the move now ... and they still will likely be below the luxury tax. About the only contract that they likely can't move is Jacoby Ellsbury, and even then, I think they might be able to move a chunk of that. It's not like they have a ton of holes ... and they have the system to fill it in. They can go hard after controllable pitchers now since someone like Clint Frazier could headline a deal. I mean, a trade seems a bit unlikely, but if the Yankees came calling with say, Clint Frazier and say, Justus Sheffield ... I gotta think the Rays would listen on Archer. Admittedly, Harper seems a bit unlikely now ... but I wouldn't rule it out for them. Rotate that big three in the corners and put one at DH to save their legs ... not the worst idea. There's just so many options Cashman can take now ... and it's funny to think, a few years ago, he was almost gone.

It's possible, but -- as an example -- the Angels could sign Neil Walker on the same dollars, twice the projected WAR, and not give up a prospect. Sure, I agree. I posted in the other thread (the Ohtani thread) that Walker made a bunch of sense (particularly since he could slot at the top of that lineup a bit better. I actually think Walker is a better fit than Castro ... but there's going to be a competitive market for Walker, it seems, or at the very least, competition.

Assuming the deal doesn't involve, say, Chase Headley/Jacoby Ellsbury (underperforming vets that they don't want), and instead, involves, say, Starlin Castro, plus maybe the Marlins eating more money ... that's about as good a deal as the Marlins could hope for, after Stanton's power play. They can likely flip the remainder of that Castro contract off to another squad (for example ... the Ohtani/Trout Angels could use a 2nd baseman). I still say they could probably use Justin Bour to help facilitate getting rid of some more money. As for the Yankees, if the deal is as pedestrian, talent and money wise, as it seems right now, it's too good of a move for them to not explore and try to get done. If they can still reset and get below 197 (still possible, although I've got to think David Robertson might be on the move now, and that they'd double down on trying to move Headley/Ellsbury, if they aren't involved in this deal), they still could fit Machado or Harper in there if they got creative.

I thought this was such a huge win of a deal for the Marlins, considering their situation. They unloaded that contract - 38 million remaining and got ... passable assets in return. I guess it's possible that Gordon's offense holds up enough in the next few years, as his legs should be fine, but considering the Marlins stated goal was to dump salary, to get this move done without eating any money and getting moderately interesting guys in return ... seems like a nice coup for them. On the flip side, I don't necessarily think it's a bad deal for the Mariners. I just think it's an odd deal. I mean, giving up the guys they did ... I'm not sure those prospects are bringing back anything better than Gordon. Still, taking a guy in the middle of his prime, heavily dependent on his legs, and transitioning him a to a relative new position? Eh. If it falters, that's a bad contract there. I think his legs probably hold up to his early 30's, and that's all the Mariners are looking at, so as long as he's decent defensively, they'll be fine, but it's a risk.

It is a pretty iffy move, to say the least. My guess is that they felt expectations had been raised so much that they wanted to get out in front of things, but I suspect many players won't look too fondly on that move. Granted, at the end of the day, money talks. If I'm the Cardinals, I double back and try and get the Marlins talking about Yelich/Ozuna. It makes sense for both sides - Cardinals know what the Marlins like, and Marlins need the pressure on Stanton. OOC, were there any reports on what the Cardinals were offering? Was busy the last couple weeks, so wondering if I missed it.

I expect the Cubs struck early so that they didn't have to sell out for anyone, and so, I suspect, in their minds that they are hoping for another SP addition, someone on top of Chatwood. That said, I'm hard pressed to see them push hard after say ... Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta right now, and I suspect that they'll sit back on Cobb (I'm guessing that there might be a bidding war on him) and Lynn. It's tough to see, albeit not impossible, a quaity SP get traded before some other FA dominoes start to fall. I just think you make this strong aggressive move early because the intent is, seemingly, offer some flexibility on decisions as it pertains to SP. I really figure they are going to go full-bore on the RP market and then see what happens with the SP market. Maybe someone (specifically, I'm thinking about Arrieta) gets left standing, to the point where maybe you can offer something like a 3/4 year deal, where the player can opt out after Year 1/2. Again, not suggesting that the Cubs are topping out with Chatwood. Just that this move seems to be an attempt to avoid getting jammed by any FA options.

I just don't see a match there. despite those rumors uh ... a month ago? If you are the Giants, you aren't going to move Melancon/Samardzija (or Cueto) in a Heyward deal. You are hoping Cueto/Samardzija, with a returning Bumgarner, anchors a deep rotation and that Melancon's peripherals portend a guy that will bounce back and anchor that pen. Only way you take Heyward is if someone eats money, or the Cubs package something else to make you want to eat that money, and I'm not sure the Cubs necessarily do either. Perhaps I'm wrong about the GIants, but that seems like their offseason plan - a couple small moves to upgrade the offense and hope for the best on the arm side of things with their veterans, while biding time for their prospects. This leaves aside whether or not Heyward would go there to begin with. Actually, tbh, the team I sorta wonder if Heyward would go to are the Braves. No clue if he would waive his NTC, but he was obviously from there and came up in the org. Freddie Freeman is a good friend of his, by most accounts, since they grew up together and came up together in that system. There's not much in the form of salary commitments long term, so there's some financial space. They could use a veteran to work with the kids coming up, and Heyward is a good locker-room guy. Cubs might have to take Kemp back for a couple years, send future money after 2019, and/or send a couple lottery ticket assets, but I do wonder. Again, doubt Heyward gets moved, but I do wonder if that might be a sleeper option.

In all seriousness, under which combination of players given up + Marlins eating salary would people be cool with acquiring Stanton? If it’s just Stanton I’d do Happ or Almora and Alzolay and they throw in ~$50 mil kicked in during options years and I’d willing to take back Volquez, Tazawa or Ziegler this year too. For Stanton and Yelich I’d do Almora, Happ, Alzolay, and other minor leaguers and they throw in ~$50 mil in the option years and again take back a Volquez, Tazawa or Ziegler as well. I honestly don't know, as of this moment in time when Stanton seems to have made his power play and put the Marlins in a weaker spot (certainly possible that somehow the bids push it back up), if the Cubs have to go that far right now, from a prospect package. The rumored GIants package was what, Chris Shaw, Tyler Beede, and Joe Panik, plus around 240/250 million that they'd eat? I don't think the Cubs would eat that much of the deal, but assuming they did, that's a fringe-ish rotation arm prospect right now, a 1st base/corner OF guy whose hit tool isn't all that great, and Panik, a solid MLB 2nd baseman who probably over-achieved a bit his first two years, offensively. Right now, I mean, assuming the Cubs would take on 240-250 million ... maybe I'd offer Almora. Maybe. I'm really not sold I'd pair it with Alzolay. Tbh ... as mediocre as our system is right now, considering the Giants offer and a perceived weakened position for the Marlins, I'd just throw out minor leaguers and only offer more if the Marlins are willing to eat more money. If we could get Stanton with our minor leaguers ... we'd certainly have a lot of flexibility the rest of the off-season. Looking at the Marlins salaries, I think the Marlins best play may be to start shopping Ozuna/Yelich and let Stanton know they are serious about things. I wouldn't consummate any Yelich/Ozuna trade that quickly, but with the Gordon move, if they could dump Tazawa and/or Ziegler real quick, perhaps that sends a message to Stanton. Maybe shop Straily/Dietrich/Bour aggressively as well. Worst case is, they find out the markets for all their other assets sooner than later. Best case, they get Stanton to realize he's stuck in no-man's land if he doesn't agree to a move. Prado probably has to be tied to someone else for them to move that contract in the clear (I still wonder about something like Bour/Prado to say ... the Red Sox, filling the Red Sox need at first base and for power.

If teams are falling by the wayside, we definitely should poke around. The returns they were asking for, at least the ones I saw, didn't seem like much. If the Marlins have less leverage now ... All that said, I suspect this is coming to one of three conclusions: 1) Dodgers on some sort of sweetheart deal for them 2) Yankees ... but this only happens if they take some salary in return or pay off a huge portion ... 3) Marlins pivot and deal away almost every other piece imaginable ... okay, not that extreme, but yeah, Yelich and others may have to go.

I don't love the signing, but I'm fine with it, primarily because it's three years. This entire SP FA class was a crapshoot, in some respects, and in Chatwood, they potentially have a guy who might get better (whereas with Lynn/Cobb, I think you've largely seen their peak, although Cobb, having been out, could potentially get back there). At the end of the day, the years were as important as the player, and I really wasn't sure anyone would sign for a clear-cut three years this early. The fact that the Cubs got a younger guy to sign early affords them a lot of flexibility. I wouldn't be surprised if, like a couple years back, they let the market settle and see if someone comes cheaper than expected (like Fowler that winter). I suspect the focus now jumps to settling the pen. I mean, you hope for better, but a top four of Quintana/Hendricks/Lester/Chatwood is fine.

I actually think this makes some sense for Otani, if his goal is to somewhat establish his own legacy. He'll get some AB's, primarily at DH, but perhaps even as a corner OF, if he wants it. The main thing, and Otani must realize it by now, is he must come through as a pitcher, but if he does ... that rotation doesn't look that bad, particularly if Richards/Shoemaker are healthy and back to form. The rotation needed an ace for guys to slot in better spots, and if Otani provides that, the rotation suddenly looks ... decent. In the 2nd half of the season, their pen might've found some structure with former Cubs farmhand Blake Parker perhaps establishing himself as the closer. With Upton/Trout/Simmons, there's a decent positional core. Still probably need a couple bats to really emerge as a dangerous World Series threat, but they should be a competitive squad in the AL. The system's still a bit thin, with chips far away, so Eppler probably needs to spend, or get creative, but with Moreno/Trout ... he probably had to anyways. Someone like Neil Walker makes some sense for them, as a potential top of the order hitter to slot in at 2nd. Then, there's the non-baseball side of things that Raisin touched on. There's the huge Japanese population, but more importantly, it's really simple - he's in the LA market. That should get him a bunch of endorsement opportunities. Edit: Should add that the Angels, and not sure if this mattered to Otani, have a "sleeper" system. This system could really pop in a year or two ... or it could flatline, but there's a lot of raw intriguing pieces that Eppler has gambled on in an attempt to rebuild the system. It's possible a surprise like Michael Hermosillo could end up taking an OF spot. Some of the first round picks haven't been the best (Taylor Ward, Matt Thaiss), but even those guys still have chances at big league careers.