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I'm not entirely convinced Lacy's stuff plays well at the higher levels as a starter (strikes me as a middle relief arsenal), unless that slider is much better than anticipated, but I wouldn't be surprised if he just continues to mow down Low A kids. Will be interesting what the decision-making is for some of these guys when "bump" time comes. Assuming some of the Low A guys continue to perform well, I'd like to push some of the college guys up and challenge them, while giving time to the younger guys.

I actually would sorta like to see Rollie Lacy get the bump up if he continues pitching well, and let Abbott and others develop in South Bend a bit longer. I still wonder if Lacy might be better off in the pen utilizing the 2 seamer with his slider, but he's showing well enough. The arms in South Bend are performing well enough that they could force some decisions to be made on upper level guys if they keep performing.

I have no doubt the Orioles are interested in those guys, but these seems like lazy speculation. Orioles have made it known they want pitching prospects (and supposedly 2), and those 5 guys tended to be the top 5 pitching prospects named entering the season for the Cubs. While I'm not averse to some sort of Russell/Machado deal if the situation/deal is right, I'm not so sure I would go so all-in on a Machado deal to offer up say ... Russell/Alzolay/? unless the deal was expanded. If the Cubs makes this move, with their emphasis on defense, then the guess would have to be that their internal metrics suggest Machado can be better than he's shown so far at short, which is possible. At the end of the day, I really think other teams will step to the forefront and offer more, or stuff that's more enticing, but ... it's plausible that someone like Alzolay could be one of the better pitching prospects offered. Too many teams could conceivably go after Machado, with so many teams in the race. Still think the Diamondbacks make a ton of sense, provided the price isn't too steep (and while their system has improved, it's still thin at the top, and Duplantier is probably not being moved). A package of Widener/Chisholm might be fairly enticing. Rockies seem like a team that could potentially look into it, with their pitching focus on internal guys. Phillies have been oft-mentioned. I don't particularly buy the Mets, Giants (don't think they have the depth to swing the deal), or Dodgers, but I guess they can't be ruled out. There's obviously the Cards/Brewers, and then there's some AL Central and West teams, assuming Angelos doesn't deal in the division. Of course, the Orioles front office is arguably either the worst in baseball, or so hampered by ownership that they appear to be the worst, and with Brady in the wings, who knows what happens. Duquette made a comment the other week, a dumb comment, about Machado and keeping him if he's in the Triple Crown race (although there's some thought that the sentiment was just talk aimed at trying to somewhat build leverage ... still, it was just stupid and unnecessary). Keeping him last year was fine - they backed into a playoff spot 2 years ago and had an aging core. Keeping him this winter was stupid, and one wonders if they'll just bungle it again.

A friend who went to the Myrtle Beach game swore to me that Swarmer hit 95/96 on that gun (said it was the 3rd or 4th inning).

Fair enough. I don't disagree with anything. To be clear, I say extensions, and i simply mean long term deals. The honest prism that I was looking through is this - if you are signing KB down in a couple years, Contreras, and going after Harper, moves are going to be made elsewhere. With the arb numbers at SS being what they are, it just strikes me as a possibility that the Cubs are going to move Russell moreso than some of the non-KB/Contreras grouping. He's the one that might also bring the most in return. Now, there's other ways about it. Perhaps someone takes that Heyward deal. There's other possibilities to move money around, but until Ricketts gives any indication that he'll blow things up with payroll or that he's willing to go down the Lerner's road with some "creative" contracts, the assumption has to be that some pieces will be moved sooner than later. Again, that's me, though. To be clear, it's not like I think the Cubs will move all of the people below Willy and KB if they get Harper. Some would stay, obviously, but I think they are all in that unknown land until decisions are made.

That's fine. I don't view Russell as a part of the young core for the Cubs that won't be moved. I do think Turner is viewed as a part of the young core for the Nationals. I'm not talking about their talent. Russell has the potential to be on another level if he puts the offense together. This makes no sense to me but to each their own. I think everything the team has done through their actions and words has indicated he’s part of this core. Ok. Again, it's not a comment on on talent or ability, or current production. I don't think the Nationals would in any way consider any move of Trea Turner, unless it's a "you'd be dumb to move him". I think, when they start thinking about extensions, assuming he produces, Turner is near the top of the list for the Nationals. I don't think the Cubs are looking to move Russell, but I think they'd listen and I also don't think Russell is at the top of the list for extensions. I think Bryant/Contreras top that list. I can see an argument to put Russell ahead of Schwarber, and thus in that group, but I think there's two guys on the Cubs that will be prioritized first, and that Willson and Kris. But that's me.

I'm a lifelong Cubs fan who grew up in the DC area. I just try not to let my Cubs fandom color things. It seems like I'm tilting heavy on the Nationals here, but that's because I'm mighty perplexed at the opinion that seems to have developed in this thread that somehow the Nationals aren't a strong threat to maintain him. I mean, there were comments about the Phillies being a stronger threat, when the Nationals young core is arguably more talented than the Phillies, as much as that's overlooked, regardless of whether or not they keep Harper. I do admit to liking Mike Rizzo. Early on, it seemed like he got the benefit of a lot of top picks, but he's maintained that system through the years. That system has never really let up, and has never really fallen to shambles. I mean, as noted, assuming a super-elite offensive talent like Juan Soto graduates ... they still have a pretty decent group to start with, the IFA's from a year ago to hope on, and a draft. I would argue that a Nationals defensive future with Turner at SS, Robles in CF, Rendon at 3rd is a notch better. It's debatable, but I think Turner will settle into being a top notch defensive shortstop, Robles has all the worlds tools, and Rendon is an elite defensive 3rd baseman. I can see the argument the other way ... the Nationals future at 2nd is a bit unknown and Baez is obviously a top notch defender at 2nd. I was looking more at young core's, so I didn't factor in Jason Heyward in RF. Edit: Tbh, I'm a bit baffled by this contention that I'm not a Cubs fan. I've spoken highly of Taylor Widener before. Does that make me a Diamondbacks fan? I've said for several years that I thought the Rockies had one of the elite systems in the game. Does that make me a Rockies fan? I guess I'm a bit partial to Baltimore and Washington D.C., having grown up here, but I only post on one sports site.

That's fine. I don't view Russell as a part of the young core for the Cubs that won't be moved. I do think Turner is viewed as a part of the young core for the Nationals. I'm not talking about their talent. Russell has the potential to be on another level if he puts the offense together.

On any timeline that would be relevant to Bryce Harper, that Cubs core is significantly better. Soto and Robles have a combined 235 PA above A-ball, the odds of them outproducing Contreras/Schwarber before 2021 are not high, and the odds of them bridging the huge quality gap between Bryzzo and Rendon/Turner are lower than that. And then you’ve also got the fact that the Cubs have 4 other former Top-50 prospects as position player depth compared to...the hope that Michael Taylor finds his AA form somehow and [file not found]. Leaving aside all else and focusing on just timeline/talent/ability to win ... Elite offensive prospects tend to perform. I forget what the study was, and you would probably know better than I do off the top as I haven't followed as much baseball the past year and half. The super-elite offensive talent tend to perform, and Juan Soto is up there. It's not impossible that they flame out ... nothing is, with prospects, but so far, there aren't any apparent holes, a la Brandon Wood. The top end comparisons aren't that far off - I'm too lazy to dig through the numbers right now, but my guess is that the WAR's over the last 2 years for Strasburg/Scherzer/Rendon/Turner vs. Rizzo/Contreras/Bryant/? isn't that far. There is the x-factor of Yu Darvish. All that said, I'm not denying that the Cubs core is better. What that evaluation does leave off is the assumption that somehow the Cubs will maintain it's group, while the Nationals won't add. I mean, there was some chatter that the Nationals may try to keep Daniel Murphy and eventually slide him to 1st base. If his bat holds, that changes the complexion of things. They could very well go out and make a splash, which I expect them to do in regards to SP. In the end, how good a team is and how ready they are to win in the short term and compete in the long term is likely only a small facet in his decision. Nonetheless, for all the talk about the Phillies and other clubs, I just don't get why people here are overlooking the Nationals ability to keep him around, particularly when factoring in the Lerner's relationship with Boras and Harper's noted affinity for the DC area.

I agree with most everything you’ve said. The thing is the Cubs go sooo deep. The fact that you went KB/Rizzo/Wily/Schwarber but could have gone KB/Rizzo/Javy/Russell or Happ or Almora and made your point just as well is what tells the tale for me. I don't particularly view Javy/Russell as core players. That may be harsh, but I think push comes to shove when it comes time to offer extensions, those guys are definitely, as of right now, a step below. Happ/Almora are another notch below those two for me, although Almora may deserve to be on the same plane as Russell/Javy. That's me, though.

Yes. The reason is this - they have an excellent system despite all their young MLB talent. Actually, if there's any team that could afford to somewhat let go of Bryce Harper, it might be the Nationals. Victor Robles looks like, barring a physical setback, a legitimate top talent who has 5 tools. Juan Soto might be the best young offensive talent in the entire minors ... including perhaps Ronald Acuna and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. If he's not, then he's in the conversation. Even if those two graduate, a system with Carter Kieboom (a possible top 50 prospect next year), Will Crowe, Erick Fedde is a decent start, along with whatever they add in this year's draft (and one of my favorite boom/bust sleepers in the minors - Daniel Johnson ... although I tend to think he might end up more as a 4th OF, not enough hit tool to be a regular, but offers enough offensive/defensive ability to find a role). It'd have to be a staggered deal with deferrals, and there would definitely be opt outs, but they could do it. Daniel Murphy's contract is coming up, Ryan Zimmerman ends after 2019, Gonzalez/Wieters/Madson/Kelley are all finishing up. Any team signing Bryce will need to be creative, but yes, on paper, the Nationals can do it (and the Angels, with Ohtani, and an improving system, look like a team that could contend while Trout is still in his prime, a big surprise compared to recent past). They could trade Eaton to clear more short term salary space if needed, and Carter Kieboom might be ready for 2nd base by 2019 (more likely late 2019, but they might not need to spend big on the spot). Heck, if I'm being fair ... I'm not so sure the Cubs future is necessarily better than the Nationals. I really love Soto, and a core of Soto/Robles/Turner/Rendon plus Scherzer/Strasburg in the short term, and an ownership that you know will spend ... is very, very tantalizing. Sure, KB/Rizzo/Contreras/Schwarber top that, but I'm not so sure it's by all that much. There's more offense with the Cubs (Although how much more depends on how big a believer one is in Soto/Robles, and I am). Nationals defensive core looks better, but they are in a tougher division for the future. ____

The reports I saw on Swarmer said something along the lines of 91-93 but can ramp it up to mid-90's as a starter, decent life on the 4-seamer, a slider/curve/change all average or so. To be clear, I'm not trying to pump him up as some sort of future 2/3, clear mid-rotation type starter. I think he's probably still an end of the rotation type guy if he pans out. Tbh, what has me truly fascinated, besides performance and a clear starter's arsenal (which, for example, is a bit more debatable on a guy like Rucker), is that Swarmer has added 15-20 pounds since college ... and there was a report where either he or the Cubs suggested he could add another 15-20 and perhaps get near 6'5" 200. That would be a lot of weight that wasn't there before. Could go both ways, as with any weight gain, but if it's a positive weight addition, it's awfully interesting. Edit: Had a couple minutes, so spent time googling Swarmer because ... it's Friday. Seems like it's more 93/94 on the 4 seamer, 89-92 on the 2 seamer, slider, and change. Seems like he's really learning how to be a pitcher. Late last year, he said he was around 180, and that he's trying to get to 205.

Whether or not the Cubs should trade for Machado is one question. I'm of the opinion that it's going to be awfully tough for the Cubs to make a package that makes enough sense (that is, the Cubs don't give up that much) for both sides to come to ... unless Peter Angelos steps in and impacts things. Also, Baltimore's front office is likely to undergo some upheaval this winter ... Brady Anderson is rumored to be the GM in waiting, so one wonders how that might impact any attempts at moves. Tbh, I half expect the Orioles to muck this up. I had no problem with them keeping Machado after 2016 (that is, for the 2017 season) - yes, you backed into a playoff bid, but you still got there and the aging core was stopping ... the idea was to hope that another winning season may spur Machado's loyalties a bit. They mucked it up by not dealing him at the deadline in 2017 (and the half-heated go for it trade for Hellickson), or this winter. Theoretically, and with the Orioles FO you never know ... arguably the worst FO in baseball right now that lucked through this recent run largely due to star power and Showalter's pen management ... any Machado trade should be focused on getting at least one quality arm and one quality bat. They have a system that's shown some development, but is still struggling, but their numbers game on the pitching side is more names than quality (outside of Hunter Harvey, but he has the medical background. While I thought the Cubs wouldn't make a big deal last season, I admittedly was surprised when they doubled down and pushed in with Eloy. Still, it made sense. The Cubs doubling down now would be a package of Alzolay, Ademan, and ? It's not an imposing package. So, it would come down to putting in young players like Addison. Problem is, Addison is already on arb. Orioles rebuilding outlook suggests 3-4 years, and Addison would've reached FA already. It just doesn't make sense, unless they get an order from up top to try and maintain competitiveness. There are so many teams that are likely to jump in that can offer talent. Philadelphia comes to mind (able to offer MI talent and pitching). Arizona could see a window and an offer of say WIdener/Chisholm/?? would be quite fascinating (I'm going to be surprised if Hazen offers Duplantier ... tbh, I wouldn't offer Chisholm, really like him). Any overachieving NL East team (Braves/Mets) could be a factor if they wanted to make a run, and there's the Cardinals/Brewers. Honestly, the team that I think might be the biggest threat are the Colorado Rockies. They could potentially offer a MLB shortstop with 3 years of arb left (Trevor Story ... who would fit in with the Orioles high strikeout, home run guys) and some of their 2nd tier prospects. A package of say, Story, Vilade, Castellani would be hard to top.

If Swarmer reaches the 50 or so inning mark (say another 5 starts or so, bringing us to the end of May), I'd like to see him get the bump to AA. Leads to a tough decision about the AA rotation, as no one really deserves to be bumped out. Ideally, the Cubs would move someone in the AAA rotation to pen work (my preference is still to see if Jen-Ho Tseng can ramp it up in the pen), and bump someone from AA, like Duncan Robinson, up, if he's still performing well. If not, long run, I do think Rucker is in the pen unless his breaking balls improve that much, and putting him in the pen may create a guy who could help later this year, if necessary. I'm still not against shifting Clifton to the pen, but considering his decent run as a starter in A+, and a bounce back season of sorts this year, plus his size/frame, I think you give him the year in AA and see how he progresses.

Saw it said Tseng listed as the starter for Iowa, unless I'm misreading it. As for Tseng, I think you give him another few weeks as a starter, at which point, I'd move him to the pen. It's not that he can't last as a AAA starter with occasional call-ups to the majors to spot fill a role, or that he might even become a usable, consistent 5th starter (don't expect it, but not impossible). It's just that he's not going to excel in that role, and while we have his control, we might as well see if he might excel in another role. For the Taiwanese National Team, IIRC, at the last WBC, he came out of the pen. Now, they shuffled him into an insignificant pen role, because they felt he was trying to showcase himself moreso than any team goals, but IIRC, he was able to ramp up the fastball out of the pen. Time obviously impacts things, but if he can ramp it up, why not take a look?

Harrison is an interesting comparison. He is obviously smaller, but my recollection is that he was actually good defensively at 2nd and 3rd, but moved around because they weren't sure his bat would be enough and got OF time to develop versatility. Could be wrong, but that's what I recall, and he had a lot more speed (I believe he was in college with Tony Campana, which made for a fast duo) and hit for better contact than I think Bote will. I'm not sure Harrison ever made swing adjustments like Bote did, although it wasn't as ... prevalent a discussion point as it has become. Actually, thinking about it now ... a comparison to a former Cubs prospect that might work is Marwin Gonzalez. Both guys are about the same size, and Marwin also made swing changes to get more loft. I don't know if I ever expect anything like 2017 Marwin out of Bote, but then again, those huge one-year wonder breakouts, and then settling down ... you never really expect it.

I tend to think of Bote as a guy who will probably be a utility backup for the majority of his career, but may have a couple years where he's a capable starter. I'm trying to think of guys that fit that mold and few of those guys ever become consistent starters in the bigs (I'm thinking of guys like DeRosa/Kipnis) because they end up not being good enough to stay as the starter. Zobrist was an exception, because he was actually a decent defensive shortstop coming up. The guy I think of as a positive case is someone like Derek Dietrich, although my recollection is that Dietrich was actually a decent shortstop at Tech, and might have been, when he was younger before the position moves, a bit more agile than Bote. I think Dietrich's Btw, I loved DeRosa, but he really wasn't much before he joined the Cubs. He was a mediocre utility guy with the Braves. One could argue opportunity, and I may buy that. He had a decent year with the Rangers before coming over, had a nice run with the Cubs, then settled back down. On Albertos - If it's something mechanical, then I think you send him back to XST. If it's more nerves/weather/confidence, then okay, keep him in the pen and monitor him and let him get comfortable. My guess is that they are hoping a few outings in the pen to build up confidence might help him, so they are avoiding that XST move for now.

What's ridiculous about the Diamondbacks is what Hazen has done since he's gotten there - he's taken a moribund team and has them competitive, with smart key moves, and he's revived the system in one year. They were a mess, system-wise, when he got there, and now, it's a pretty healthy system with some fairly intriguing guys at the top. Smart moves and a good draft has rebuilt things fast. Can't figure out who I prefer - Duplantier or Widener. Jasrado Chisholm might be on the way to breaking through as a top 100, and perhaps even top 50, type of prospect.

Heck, I need to see him sustain it for the year to really buy it. He had that nice stretch to start ... uh ... A+? Then, he got hurt, and he never got back. Still, I recall the spring articles, and it seemed like the front office was still holding out some hope.

I'm ... mildly curious if the early success for Underwood is something he can sustain. At some point, would like to see him stretch into 6 or 7 innings consistently if he's going to keeping a starting gig. Who knows, maybe the switch finally was flipped.

The one thing I wonder about Harper is this ... could a team try to reel him in with a blow away the water short term offer, and hope that he enjoys it so much that he sticks around? The Phillies would be the logical guess on that, due to their clean sheet and the offers they made this winter, but if the contract gets too big and long, teams, like the Nationals, get "creative" with deferrals and all sorts of other junk. If a team came in and bombed the bidding with say ... 3/150 ... something that would be pretty crazy ... and hope that they get their foot in the door, could that sway things. Personally, once things get too long and too big, then I think the ball gets back in the Nationals court. But a short term blow away offer would force a lot of juggling on their end, because I think, even with deferrals, too lazy to check this morning, Scherzer and Strasburg's contracts are kicking up a lot soon, and Rendon needs a deal soon.

I think the chances are high that Heyward is simply a sunk cost. Granted, all it takes is one team, but with teams being so careful about money this past offseason, it seems like the Cubs would have to go too far to get teams to bite. I'm not all that convinced a team will necessarily say, Ian Happ, okay, we'll take a huge chunk of Heyward's deal. It may make logical sense, but I'm not convinced a team will do that. The other alternative is to find a bad contract swap to alleviate the burden somewhat, but it's hard to find a good matching deal. Anyhow, I'm still of the opinion that Bryce Harper is likely staying with the Nationals. Personally, I think it's something like 70/30 Harper stays with the Nationals. All the rumors down this way point strongly in that direction - the Nationals will pony up unless a team gets to ridiculous levels (and I think ridiculous levels is something like 10/500 ... and I don't know if a team gets there), Boras is ridiculously close to the Lerners (they even acknowledge it ... he meets with the Lerners each summer, IIRC, bypassing Mike Rizzo), and Harper does like it in DC. With the way the Nationals do deferrals and Boras being amenable to it, plus the fact that the Nationals are open to opt-outs, I just don't see Harper budging unless someone blows the house down so much that the Nationals have to move on. Anyhow, more a total side note, but I have a hunch on Philly. It'll really come down to how things go, but I think they may try to swing a big deal with Baltimore. Not just Machado ... I think they may try to swing a deal for Schoop as well, if Schoop is healthy and hitting. With how close Schoop and Machado are, it may give them a bargaining chip, along with money, to convince Machado to stick around. They'll have the middle infield talent and pitching to flip to the Orioles, and it would help the Orioles look a bit better by potentially snagging some high end talent, rather than settle for whatever teams would fork over for a rental.

Mekkes is a big dude. Watching that delivery has always been ... weird. He's consistent, and has such a huge step, and the ball sort of seems like it doesn't pop at the right angle, as the landing and delivery ... He's a good relief profile. I think, best case, he ends up something like Luke Gregorson, who ended up popping as a solid closer, but Gregorson was probably a bit overlooked for awhile. I'm happy for Bailey Clark, but admittedly, a bit disappointed. This says to me it's a fast-track pen thought, and while that might be his future, I would've liked to see him get some starts. I guess after last season's command issues, and his college track record, plus the delivery, the Cubs might've made up their mind on his path. I guess it's still possible for them to pivot, but okay. Solid start for Swarmer. Considering what he was, and what he is now, it's one of the nice developmental stories in the system, for me. If he can get to AA this year, the age becomes less of a sore point (age 24 in AA isn't that bad). It's still too early, but I wonder what internal measuring sticks the Cubs are using to judge Ademan.

For no great reason, I'm actually intrigued with Swarmer. Admittedly, on the old side of things, for A+, so it's sort of make or break, but he was in the pen last year, and the Cubs moved him into the rotation, and he has a starter's arsenal (2/4, slider, change) and throws strikes. He's added weight since college, so a couple years back, he didn't look like much, but it's low 90's and topping out, what 93 on the 4 seamer? There was that article a few months back where he thought he could add close to another 20 pounds on his frame, and if so, that could portend a bit more velocity. Has to move fast, as at some point, the age is going to be a sore point, but if he gets to AA as a starter this year, there might be a smidgen of something there. Ceiling probably isn't more than a 4/5 type starter, if I'm being honest, and it's probably more middle reliever, but just the fact that they think they can add another 20 pounds, meaning a 30-40 pound gain from his college days, plus his performance so far ... it's mildly intriguing.

I never really cared that much for the loss of Villanueva, but I always wondered, as 3rd base still isn't a great position at the MLB level, if the combination of a decent glove and a non-zero bat might get him a shot at PT at some point. Still, looks like SS/PCL impact in the early goings. Jeimer always had a good bat and approach. Really curious how that career turns out - he was always young in our system, so he may just be tapping into this potential. I doubt he maintains this level of pop, but who knows.