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I'm gonna be mildly surprised if Andy Weber comes in as a under-slot guy. He's coming off a fantastic year at a major school. 5th round seems about right. That said, it's a bit surprising he hasn't signed yet.

Lacy started in the pen, and may go back there, but at this point, he's been too good as a starter to just shift back to the pen. There are no glaring mechanical/delivery issues that I'm aware of that might force him there eventually (unlike Rucker, where there's some modicum of concern - to be clear, I'd rather keep Rucker in the rotation at AA as well, but if Thompson's up, something's moving ... maybe it's Duncan Robinson to AAA?). He has a starter's arsenal, with the breaking ball still sharp, and he pitches to his abilties. I'm of the opinion you let Lacy run with it as a starter and see what happens. The other option to push up is what, Erich Uelman? I'm fine with that as well, although Lacy is probably as bit more refined than he is right now. Uelman has a bit more ceiling, as he has more of a power sinker compared to Lacy, but at last check, seems like his breaking ball is a bit behind.

We're seeing pitcher movement ... I hope Rollie Lacy gets the call to Myrtle. Am curious if his stuff holds, and he was a college arm, so might as well find out sooner than later. Wait, if Thompson is up, did someone get bumped from that rotation (up or out) that I'm forgetting? Or are they shifting Rucker to the pen? Because it was what, Swarmer, Robinson, Hatch, Rucker, de la Cruz.

Just cause he agreed to an underslot bonus doesn't make it "okay". The Cubs liked Davis and Roederer and knew they needed some savings from an underslot signing to be able to afford those two players. Richan was listed very low on national rankings lists and I bet the Cubs didn't have him that highly ranked either -- they just needed someone they liked to agree to an underslot bonus. I hate the pick and think he'll barely register on our Top 30 prospect rankings, if he ever makes it on there. I hated the Zastryzny pick also. I didn't like the Stinnett selection at the time. I liked the Pierce Johnson selection, but he didn't amount to much... Cubs need to do better and they've admitted as much. Well, here's the thing - you likely aren't grabbing a guy as an underslot guy who isn't fairly low compared to where you are picking at the moment. There are some exceptions - for example, a senior sign who rose up his last year might go for a bit below slot because of a lack of leverage (I believe Stinnett was, off the top). I hate that I'm sort of defending Richan here, as I don't really like the talent. But the pick isn't the talent ... the pick is also somewhat a byproduct of the system. If people have a problem with the pick, they should have as much a problem with the Davis/Roederer picks, if not moreso. Put it another way - I don't love the talent, I'm okay with the pick as an extension of what happened in the draft. As for where he ranks, our system isn't that good that a college pitcher with a starter's arsenal and command isn't going to register in the top 30. I haven't really thought it out, but my feeling is that the difference between Richan and Cory Abbott last year isn't nearly that great, so I'm guessing I'd probably put Richan in that 18-26 range. But to each their own.

I have no clue what's going on in this thread. I didn't love Richan, particularly when it was announced, the thought was he was getting slot. System is, though, geared towards under-slot guys, and knowing he got underslot makes that pick okay. All that said, the 2nd point is an interesting discussion point. Essentially, to break it down to a superbly simplistic question - What's easier - teaching a guy a new pitch (or improving it dramatically) or teaching them command? There are stories of both things happening - Kyle Hendricks wasn't this good coming up the minors, for example. I'm going to take a partial cop out and say that, in terms of draft picks, it would depend on their age/experience. It's not impossible, but I think it's probably easier to teach a college guy with an average-ish arsenal command than teaching a new plus pitch/improving a pitch. But yeah, it's a fascinating baseball development discussion to have.

A day later, I'm still mystified by this deal. Even if you acknowledge Herrera as being a touch over-rated ... he was still likely one of the better available pen arms out there. I've got to think the target was Morel here - too much is known about Perkins and Gutierrez. Nationals shore up their bullpen (middle relief as a big problem), and probably still have the ability to go after another starter, if they so desire. I really wonder if they might end up shopping Adam Eaton for a SP perhaps. Wouldn't be right now ... maybe a month from now, when there's more certainty on what Juan Soto's performance for the rest of the year might be like.

Okay, a second to think about it ... and I'm still perplexed. Look, Guiterrez is a nice bat. He's got a nice stroke, don't think he'll ever have that much pop unless the swing changes. If you squint really hard, you can sort of see something like Jeimer Candelario. Blake Perkins has a lot of raw tools. It's exciting, but so was Bubba Starling. The Nationals spent big time in the international market a couple years back, and they had some more intriguing raw talent, IMO, than the top guys. I wouldn't be surprised if Yohanse Morel ended up being the best asset in the deal. Mid-upper 90's fastball with a plus slider is a nice starting point.

That's it? Really? The Nationals system has a healthy amount of talent, ranging from raw upside guys to high floor guys. That's it for Kelvin Herrera? Wow. Really, just [expletive] wow. I'm glad they trust their scouts, but I half thought Kelvin Herrera could've netted a fairly solid, polished prospect.

I'm fairly pleased that Matt Swarmer's stuff seems to be holding up a level. Gonna need more data to really know, but that's a nice plus. I think it's time to say bye to Jake Stinnett. There's enough arms looking for an opportunity. It feels so weird to see Trey Martin doing well. I recall the blurbs here and there about how the Cubs internally were quite high on him back in the day. I'm still of the opinion that having Ademan go down to South Bend isn't the worst idea. Obviously, different players so a lot of different factors, but I recall a 20 year old Jeimer Candelario struggling in Daytona to start, and getting sent back down to ... Kane County? It's not the end of the world, and I just don't know how much benefit it is to keep Ademan at a level that he's clearly struggling at.

I get that Tseng is on the 40 so they want to keep him around as a 40 man option to call up to spot start if needed, but at a certain point, with how bad he's been, and his age, I just don't see why they wouldn't just try him in the pen. Granted, with the injuries now, plus that there aren't really many guys in AA really pushing up right now (other than Duncan Robinson), maybe you wait until next year, but dunno, just don't see trying him in the pen as that bad of an idea for a short spell, particularly since it may let him get a chance to catch a breath.

Well ... I'll look on the bright side. Time to get Duncan Robinson up to AAA, which opens a slot at AA for Lange, or more likely Thompson, and which potentially opens up a spot for say, Rollie Lacy or Tyler Thomas at Myrtle. Yeah, better to have Alzolay healthy and pitching, but at least some guys excelling at their current levels right now potentially get to go up and see if they can excel at a higher level.

With Robinson, I want to see if that strikeout rate holds up. Anyone hear how his changeup looks this year? He's always had a fastball/breaking ball combo. If the changeup has improved enough, it's starting to look like he could have more of a mid-rotation ceiling, which would be a nice jump and surprise. Quietly following Duncan Robinson's path is Rollie Lacy, the former Creighton ace. Gets a bit lost in the shuffle, but he started in the pen and has really gone on a nice run as a starter. Ceiling's probably a bit lower, but well, thought the same for Robinson last year. I believe Lacy's more of a 2-seamer. I'm guessing his strikeouts are more a mirage right now, the byproduct of an advanced college pitcher working against youngsters in A ball, so I'm curious how he'd fare higher, but there's enough battle for spots right now that he doesn't have an opening to go higher.

He has less fastball than all of them, and doesn't even flash a plus secondary like each of those 3 you listed. Those are the big reasons why he was knocked around all year at the college level. It's not always a great thing to throw strikes when your stuff is as mediocre as Richan's. I think the biggest issue I had with Richan is simply that, at the moment, it felt like a high floor guy. In the moment, we had drafted Hoerner, which wasn't off the board but overall seemed a tiny bit higher, two OF's that, if I recall the thread, drew mixed reactions then (and now). Richan also came out saying he got slot, which seemed to send confusing signals on the draft. I mean, I simply don't see the gap between Casey and Richan as being all that much, and no one would has an issue with Casey. In hindsight, knowing Richan was an underslot purpose, then okay. I still don't love Richan ... but the system is the system, and there is a need for underslot guys.

Curious what the Nationals power transfer means in the whole scheme of things. Mark Lerner supposedly is relatively close with Bryce (as close as these relationships can go), but he's not as close to Boras as his father is. In the end, may not mean much, as it's still the Lerner family.

Considering they seem to scout UVA ... 3 guys at UVA to watch for next year: a) Evan Sperling - Sperling was fairly highly touted coming out of the prep ranks but had TJ before getting to UVA. Been a long road back - flashes last year, but no consistency. This year, looked a bit better before getting hurt (off the top, forget what it was). He's a big dude, at 6'6", but if he tightens up the command a bit more, could see him as a 2nd or 3rd round pick next year. b) Noah Murdock - Here's the last big remnant from UVA's highly touted class two years ago that was eaten up by the draft (Nolan Jones, Joey Wentz, Max Kranick). And he's big - 6'8". Showed some signs this year, spinning a good breaking ball at times, but like a lot of other UVA guys this year, got hurt. c) Cameron Simmons - Three years ago, UVA had three athletic OF's come in. The most touted entering was probably Doak Dozier, who didn't live up to the billing. Entering this year ... there was some thought that Cameron Simmons was ready to explode and was the more well thought of guy than McCarthy. There was a lot of positive thoughts. Then ... he got hurt. If he tightens up his discipline, while still displaying the athleticism to play CF and hit for power ... there's a lot to like draft-wise.

My hunch is Casey wants to pitch. My only reasoning for why Casey might be rested, or on a very, very limited schedule - 2 years ago, he didn't pitch, coming off TJ. Last year, he went ... I Want to say ... 75 innings? 90-110 would've been the probable thought on his workload this year. In some respects, I think Casey's problem is that ... he developed too much. I think he should junk one of his breaking balls in the pro game. Without having data in front of me, it felt like he got homers hit off his curveball moreso than the slider, but I could be wrong right now. There's back end of the rotation potential. A guy around 90-94, can command his pitches ... again, would point to former UVA player Artie Lewicki (of the Tigers) as an example. That said, I also wonder if Casey can ramp up his fastball (I believe his fastball was a tick or two consistently higher in his prep days) out of the pen, and just go fastball/slider and have a middle reliever profile.

Agreed, there's never any shortage of innings to go around at Eugene because they never let the college pitchers do more than some 3-4 IP stints with lots of rest. And Hoerner is almost certainly not long for Eugene, and someone like Weber, Herron, or Artis could join him in South Bend come August. Honestly ... I'm not against Hoerner ... and maybe Weber ... perhaps jumping to Myrtle Beach, as long as no huge gashes in their games show through. Of course, there's the issue of Ademan. I've long been of the opinion that a bump down to South Bend isn't the worst thing for him, but he's sorta heating up. You can find ways to figure out AB's as Hoerner/Weber both can move around a bit, and in both their cases, moving around may be the best thing for their future.

He's just so balanced and disciplined at the plate, without sacrificing his power. Now, Dave Martinez has sorta protected him - he gets a bit more rest, but that's partly because with Adam Eaton back healthy, they can afford to rest him a bit more. Still, the only odd statistic of note was that he seemed to strike out way more against righties, but that looks to be a SSS issue. Of course, Michael Taylor is probably their 4th best OF, but he might be their best defensive centerfielder, which is where the problem lies for them right now, as playing Bryce in CF isn't ideal. Truthfully, he should be their 3rd or 4th hitter right now, with Rendon scuffling, but they probably don't want to push the kid in there.

holy crap Juan Soto is good. he's had enough time that some sort of book on him should be forming, and yet he keeps producing. There's so many young, talent offensive guys in the minors, but honestly, i think it's Juan or Vlad Jr. at the top of the list when focusing just on offense, and that's including a bunch of guys I like, from Eloy to Gleyber to Acuna to Robles and so forth.

I wouldn't be absolutely stunned if the Cubs wanted to rest Casey and Richan after big workload years. I wouldn't be surprised if Weber and Hoerner's time in Eugene is very, very short, barring some extreme struggles.

A few days later, and I think I really like the trio of Roberts/Franklin/Thompson a lot more than I originally did. No, we didn't get Casey Mize or any sort of elite pitching prospect (I would note that post-draft, there was a lot of talk by teams that some of the college arms that fell were a bit over-hyped ... I know one team said they thought the college arms that were available late first didn't have great ceilings), but in terms of post-1st round pitching talent, we got 3 fascinating guys, and 2 high floor guys (Richan/Casey), assuming we sign them. It's a good combination. All this talk about video game simulation has me half-imagining them asking prospects to play VR video game baseball and see how they react. I know it's not just that, but just sort of makes me chuckle.

I wouldn't put Herron or Artis in a category with Davis. While it's fair to question how those guys will perform as they move up the ladder, neither has Davis' tools, but both have shown productivity at the collegiate level that should imply a relative solid hit tool. With Davis, it's unrefined raw talent. Both those guys are ... not finished, but not unrefined. I don't disagree that the chances of landing an impact player in this draft is relatively slim. I don't want my positive outlook on the draft to seem like I'm overlooking that and some gung-ho Theo and Co. are the world enthusiast. Heck, it's quite possible that no positional guy is a starting caliber player. Besides Hoerner, Weber is probably the best bet. (While I have my biases ... I think there's a slim chance that Andy Weber is simply on an upward track, and he's showing some power development, and I could envision a scenario where he's a solid starting 2nd baseman or useful utility type. The misunderstanding about UVA hitting philosophy is that they don't want kids that hit for loft - Adam Haseley even said in a recent interview that he reduced the loft in his swing once he reached the pros, due to more velocity, and has had to try and find the loft he had at UVA. In some respects, UVA hitting philosophy is not too dissimilar from the direction the Cubs seem to be going in with this draft). What I do like is that they took their shots. It could fail badly, it could. Only time will tell, but with Roberts/Franklin/Thompson they took some shots at pitching. I'm not huge on Richan ... I think of the two early floor arms (Richan/Casey), I wouldn't be surprised if Casey ended up the better guy (I could see him follow an Artie Lewicki like path). I can definitely see Davis stalling out ... it's easy to see unrefined talent stalling out, but I think an organization has to take it's shots at times, and they did. Yeah, it's not a sexy draft. To be honest, with this current system, it's hard to have a sexy draft without picking really high. Not impossible, but hard. They took their shots, they got guys that should fill gaps in the system, and they got some college guys that should move fast.

Craig, I actually don't disagree with anything you said. Yes, sometimes it's important to have focused drafts. Yes, the goal is major leaguers, and ideally, impact major leaguers. I certainly understood the pitching heavy drafts. Still, I think, in looking at the system from this year, a system that, I think, we can all agree on is fairly weak, there were gaps in the system, particularly on the positional side. It can't be solely attributed to trades - the weak AA positional crop this year could've been seen coming. Ceiling will be the most important thing in building usable value, but diversity of talent helps, particularly on the trade front. _____ Leaving my balance thought aside for a second, I should note that the reason I liked this draft has as much to do with a balance of ceiling and floor. _____ I would sort of like to see some aggressive pushing of some of these college bats, once they get their feet wet. Tbh, if Hoerner signs soon, I'm not opposed to, after getting his feet wet, pushing him up to Myrtle and sending Ademan back down. Heck, Virginia isn't doing much. I really hope Andy Weber gets signed and they try to push him up a bit.

On a wholly separate note, Been catching up on the draft yesterday. Granted, a chunk of those Day 3 guys won't sign. Still ... as lukewarm as I was to start off the draft this might be my favorite draft under Theo/Jed/Jason. It probably won't have the overall impact of some of the other drafts, but there's a depth and balance to this draft. Yeah, wasn't a huge fan of the run of OF's early, but I liked a lot of the Day 2 picks, there's some pitchers with upside, some pitchers with floor, there's some power bats, some speed, and some gambles on upside (namely, Davis, but a few others). I'd be stunned if this draft didn't produce a few useful major leaguers. It might not produce stars, but that's okay.

Is his plate discipline that good? Probably not that good, but it's good.