toonsterwu

Justin Bour may be one of the bigger surprises in the past decade of Cubs prospects for me, and for the life of me, I can't figure out why. I just never expected Bour to be a solid major leaguer, but realistically, the bat was always there, and the power was always there. He just never jumped off the page - I rememeber Rebel Ridling had a good run in AA one year, and while it might've been a bit lucky, that was something that stood out. I'm still mildly surprised that no one came with a creative package to the Marlins to try and pry Bour as a first base/DH power option.

I know Clifton's stuff backed up last year. Is he showing better stuff this year? I'm just trying to think what the Cubs may be thinking in regards to Clifton's timeline. He's obviously young enough to keep him starting for now, but we're veering on close to a full-season's work at the AA level, and it's fair to say that the stuff isn't playing well enough at the level. Just trying to ponder if his stuff will play up out of the pen, and if so, when they might make the move. If the fastball can play up, the breaking ball inconsistency would be a bit mitigated out of the pen, and if he can get back to touching mid-90's out of the pen, he might even be a possible late inning-ish type of guy instead of your dime-a-dozen middle reliever. As for Torrez moving to AAA ... I can't see that happening right now due to 12 innings of work to start the season. Maybe later, but his stuff is what he is. He does throw strikes, but the biggest thing is ... the pen options in Iowa are doing well enough. It's been bad starting pitching there to start the year, if anything. An extended run from Torrez of consistently doing well, and yeah, I could see him up at Iowa this summer, perhaps.

I'd like to see Bailey Clark starting some games. I'm guessing they are probably thinking a pen fast-track route for him, but at this juncture, there's no harm in playing things out as long as possible, despite his age. The raw stuff, if commanded, would be very quality for a starter. IIRC his time at Duke, he had inconsistency with mechanics quite a bit, so they may be watching that as much as stringing together outings (obviously, having the former would help with the latter).

Total side note first - Two years later, I still hate Jumbo Shrimp as a minor league team name. Mekkes looks like he's shaping up as a very nice pen option for the near future. Keep forgetting that he's a huge guy, and I think the staff is plenty good for the MLB pen (what low-mid 90's fastball, decent slider). I'm a little surprised he got left of mlbpipeline's list of our top 30 ... we're going 30 deep ... there's guys I'd definitely take Mekkes over, entering this year. I'm still not enamored with Thomas Hatch as a starter two years later. Any reports on the breaking balls? Weren't there some reports of inconsistent breaking ball last year? Dunno ... I get that he's sort of revamped his arsenal in the system, so in some respects, he's still fine-tuning. I'm very fascinated with this Jake Stinnett in the pen. Any reports on his stuff? Granted, in a better year, with a better top half of the system, this wouldn't register much. I mean, I'm getting intrigued with Mekkes/Stinnett, two guys that really profile as middle relievers. Just awful looking at these lineups. I mean, I never expected some of these guys to reach AA. I remember when the hype on Trey Martin, supposedly within the organization, was pretty big, but there's been so few spurts that him reaching AA still surprises. I mean, Jeffrey Baez has had flashes where he showed well. I mean, that AA OF is essentially potential that never developed (here's hoping EJM/Baez has found something to make them mildly interesting, but not holding my breath) ... and the overachiever in Burks.

I find myself oddly hoping that Duncan Robinson does well early and gets a quick bump to Iowa. I know his ceiling is limited, and he may very well more Jen-Ho Tseng than I want to admit right now, but the unknown intrigues me more than the known. I mean, Duane Underwood is the most intriguing starter at AAA right now, and that ship sailed.

I keep wondering if there isn't a bit of Marco Hernandez in Aramis Ademan. Look, it's too early to judge any highs and lows, so I'm not certainly making a judgment on that. Furthermore, Marco did end up reaching the majors, only to be hurt in the past year and a half. I think the next month will be telling on what type of prospect Ademan is, in some respects, because his value was as much a talented kid with an advanced approach (versus say, an elite talent). I'm not sure how they end up managing Oscar's innnings this year. If he shows well as a starter, you have to keep him there and just be patient for another year. Dunno, gonna be a tough call, but here's hoping Oscar forces them to make a tough call. A part of me wonders if, as the year progresses, to extend his innings without fully making him a pen arm, maybe you dial him back to 3-4 innings per outing and keep him at AA all year. I don't know why I'm somewhat excited about Stinnett now, after a couple years of being lukewarm, but if he's hitting mid-90's (wasn't there a blurb on that) and still has a good breaking ball ... there might be something there for the pen. Of those middling utility names, I'm really "banking" on Short, as he seems to have the pop and glove to be a bit more useful than Chesny Young, David Bote, Stephen Bruno, Jason Vosler, and so forth. With the paucity of talent in the upper levels, Short should have plenty of time to stick at short and show what he's got. I mean, only Ademan would really force him off, and it might be prudent to give Ademan some time to develop. Total side note - not that it matters that much, but I'd like to see Bailey Clark start games at some point, if he keeps up his strong start. Although, actually, doesn't seem like he's piggybacking on a set rotation, so I guess they have him running extending innings out of the pen? Either way, one of the nicer notes for the minors to start the year, and unless the stuff is flat, gotta see what our best arms can do. Lord knows there's certainly the space and opportunity for guys.

I get where davell is coming with that idea. If you can get Bryce, tying Ademan in with Heyward to clear up space and increase flexibility is ... a thought. That contract is going to be ridiculously hard to move. Not impossible, but assuming Heyward doesn't go nuts and opt out, that's what ... 5/100+ left (too lazy to look up right now). That's a bundle. That said ... if Ademan shows well and is a borderline top 50 prospect (I've got a tough time seeing him be legitimately top 50, maybe in that 40-80 range, even then, I wonder if he may be more back end top 100, but that's a lot of guessing on how this season goes), I just don't see the Cubs moving him as a part of a salary dump. We're running into two issues here - the difficulty of moving bad contracts and the immensely high value of prospects, particularly top prospects, in this era. I tend to think the latter trumps the former, when discussing a top prospect. At the end of the day, if the Cubs can find a Heyward move without eating a ton (and I have my doubts) ... I think it'll be some sort of bad contract swap coupled with some lottery tickets/decent prospects (going which way would depend on the contracts involved). Even then, it's hard to see a great fit - the best contractual fits would be something like David Price or Chris Davis, and it's hard to see how the former works out, while the latter is one I don't want.

Well, two thoughts is a) It'd be the rare day, at least at the start of this season, to find exciting pitching days. Having one somewhat intriguing guy on the mound would be enough of a win. b) I actually sorta mildly somewhat like Duncan Robinson, which is odd, as I've never been known to really enjoy those types of guys. We'll have to see how the peripherals hold up, but ... from what I recall, and I haven't really paid attention much, but he hits low 90's on the fastball, has a good, perhaps plus curve, and was working on cutter consistency. There's the makings of a decent arm in there ... nothing spectacular, but a decent, strike throwing, end of the rotation type arm that might be a smidgen better if the cutter takes off.

I do like Oscar de la Cruz a lot as a prospect, but this is pretty much a make or break year with all the injuries. The one thing I was always curious about is the quality that secondary stuff is against better, more advanced talent. Going to be interesting to see how this plays out - unlike Underwood, he could probably make a decent move to the pen if necessary. As for Hudson, it's really a long game. He could end up just being a total bust, but I'm not ready to mark this as a make or break season for him. What he has to show is some level of solid consistency.

Oh, I was thinking internal guys only, wasn't thinking draft/IFA's. And yeah, that was bad word choice earlier. What I simply meant is that as long as there's been some improvement, I'll be happy. I've seen systems where, for all the talk about how some improvement, by midseason, a lot of things have imploded, so I wouldn't exactly take it to the bank each year that the system will definitely go forward. It should. As for where I think a realistic ranking is ... yeah, I think 21-24 is probably where I would expect it to fall. It's just a shaky system to look at, IMO, in terms of hoping for development to really bump the system up, particularly the lack of serious positional assets in full-season ball. I mean, the aforementioned DJ Wilson is probably one of the higher ceiling positional guys, and there's warts everywhere. There's sleepers ... I really like Zack Short and wonder if he might have a small chance of being Zack Cozart-ish (pre-HR burst), mayber poor, poor man's Brian Dozier (again, not expecting it ... could very well be more Chesny Young, although he's defensively ahead and should have more pop). It's possible we could line them up and knock it down ... but I would also argue there's a decent chance that the organization doesn't slide up the ladder. It's so pitching dependent ... it's not hard to see guys not taking off. Ademan could flounder at A+, which wouldn't be a knock. Teams are drafting better and better, so it's no knock that we'll definitely have a draft that bumps us up - I mean, this FO, in this history, as all FO's do, have had bad drafts before.

any reports on Stinnett's stuff/velo yesterday? That's something, albeit, a very small thing, that I'm intrigued with.

I tend to cool pretty quickly on these lottery ticket type prospects, Wilson's an example of that. Entering 2017 I had high hopes, he more or less got his ass handed to him by MWL pitchers, and now my OF hopes are for one of these IFAs, Velazquez, or a TBD high 2018 pick to step up. The ultimate dream is that one of these teenaged switch hitters they've piled up becomes the next Beltran. That seems fair and realistic. He actually hit really well after the injury last year. .255/.339/.516, 10% BB, 19.1% K, .282 BABIP, 135 wRC+ If he hadn't done that, I would be there with you. But with his defense in CF and speed on the basepaths, that keeps the dream alive. Velazquez is the guy I'm allowing myself to dream on if Wilson doesn't take the step forward. I don't like Wilson that much, but I'm not that bothered by yesterday. Kid's gonna strike out and strike out a bunch. Hopefully, he sharpens up, but he's aggressive. Gonna be interesting to see if he can sort of "Baez-it" (that is, don't let the K's get so bad that he has not shot to let his other tools show) as he works up the ladder.

That is indeed bold. I would be pleased with middle of the pack. Honestly ... i almost feel like middle of the pack (obviously, middle of the pack is a fluid term somewhat) is a bit on the high end of hopes. Not impossible, but so many things would need to go well for us to reach middle of the pack - at least 1 or 2 starters would need to really step up and establish themselves, Ademan would probably need to break through in a huge way, and a few more sleepers would need to emerge. The full-season leagues are so thin on overall talent right now. Honestly, what I would be pleased with by season's end is if there's been overall improvement. By midseason, I'm hoping a couple guys emerge enough that if we need to make some minor swaps, we'll be able to do it.

I'd rather see Alzolay start at Iowa and work from there. Granted, some of it may be weather dependent, whenever he is ready. I'm curious if Lange, because of his pedigree and collegiate experience, can get off a good start to warrant a bump to AA by mid-season. I'm fascinated with the idea of Jake Stinnett in the pen - didn't the velocity drop off at times last year? Out of the pen, where he isn't worried about guys 2nd or 3rd time through, if he can find this velocity, could be mildly intriguing.

Considering this weak market, I'm surprised that Boras got a deal like this for Arrieta. I do think that this is a good move for the Phillies. They can live with 3 years, and this gives them some flexibility. I doubt Klentak is going to go out and sign Cobb unless the price is really in their range, but I could see him explore the trade market for another starter to go with Nola/Arrieta, which would really prime them if their offense is steady and the pen is improved. Really wonder where Cobb goes. It feels like almost any team could be in play on that.

I guess this is their version of Gil Meche (when he signed with the Royals) or Jayson Werth (with the Nationals). It's a "we're close" move at a decent enough price. They are close ... their assets coming up could form a strong foundational core in the next year or two, and the team in of itself seems ... interesting ... (on paper) for 2018. A potentially strong pen, some rotation pieces, and a maybe the foundations of a decent lineup. That said, they are in the NL West, which looks to have several "ascending" teams (to go along with the Padres, the Rockies system is strong, and the Diamondbacks look headed in the right direction, even if they regress a bit) to go with the Dodgers, plus the last gasp from the Giants. I don't particularly like the move, but I understand it.

Dunno who that High Heat guy is, but on the Brewers staff: a) Yes, you can conceivably make an argument for almost all those things. Zach Davies could put it together and be a ... Hendricks-type of starter and show that level of consistency. Arrieta had his Cy Young year and you could conceivably buy that Arrieta might be able to find that form. Maybe. Chacin better than Chatwood? Okay, it's not like Chatwood's lit the world on fire. Maybe. I will say that I preferred Archer to Darvish, and I'm not going to let Darvish being a Cub now change that, but it's close and it's not like there's a huge age difference there. Thing is ... b) But ... Quintana has shown more consistency, is younger, and isn't trending the wrong direction like Arrieta (I do not buy Arrieta being better than Quintana. I don't, and I don't love Quintana). Davies K rate regressed, and he hasn't shown Hendricks level of consistency or ceiling. Chacin had some Petco splits, IIRC. Anderson ... well call me when he gets anywhere near stringing together a few strong seasons, like Lester (to be fair, I'm worried about some more regression from Lester ... I think, on talent, he's probably our 4th starter entering the year). It's not inconceivable that the Brewers end up with a better rotation, based on the hypothetical rotation ... but it would almost certainly take a lot of balls bouncing in the right way for them, and a lot of balls falling the wrong way for the Cubs. c) All that said, how are they going to end up with this mythical rotation? Do they think teams will just back off Arrieta and hand them to him? The bar's set fairly low now ... I have my doubts some other teams aren't jumping in on Arrieta. And ... how are they achieving this Archer trade, unless they part with say, Josh Hader? I've still got a hard time seeing the Brewers complete a huge deal unless Josh Hader was put in there. Now, it's possible they've made a decision that they don't think Hader will reach his ceiling as a starter, and opt to shop him, but I just can't see what? Woodruff? Burnes? Hiura? Ortiz? Any of those guys being good enough to be headlining a package for Archer. Heck ... 2 of them still likely seems slim on an Archer deal.

I'm surprised at the news of how lackluster his market seemed. Yeah, there are concerns about Darvish, but he was still a top pitcher. I'm just thoroughly surprised that, beyond the Brewers and Twins, it seemed iike (outside of the Heyman report) that few other teams even came close to the Cubs number, which was lower than anticipated. It was a solid off-season, and barring some surprise, this should probably wrap up the major moves. Still a bit concerned about the pen, and I don't know about some components of the lineup, but it was as good an off-season as could be expected. Wonder who gets opening day. Obviously not the biggest deal, but only person that seems unlikely is Chatwood. Mildly curious how the rest of the couple weeks of offseason left goes. Do we get a flurry of signings/a trade or two ... or do things still crawl?

If the Brewers pull off an Archer trade ... I've got to think the deal probably starts with Josh Hader. I guess I could squint and see something with Luis Ortiz in it as well. One of those two pitchers almost has to be involved, IMO. They do have the pieces to pull off a "respectable" trade for the Rays - you get an Ortiz or a Hader, a guy you can market as a possible TOR acquisition, and then you mix in maybe a young MLB player or some solid secondary pieces. At the end of the day, comes down to what the Rays are looking for. If they want positional assets, not a lot of polished talent in the Brewers system to make it work as a headline piece.

It's a good combination of moves for the Brewers, and the package given for Yelich isn't that bad. Harrison might've broken out ... but is still risky, and Isen Diaz ... you gotta buy the bat developing a lot. It's easy to see why the Marlins would take this - they've got some pitching in their system and this gives them some upside to develop and a centerpiece in Brinson. Still, they are a couple moves away from really threatening, unless everything simply bounces right for them.

So ... my view on the Brewers system is that it's really a lot of untapped potential in some key areas, but it hasn't popped, and for specific guys, it's fair to question if it will pop. I mean, top picks Corey Ray and Trent Grisham have never gotten it going yet, and Nate Kirby has been hurt ... but the raw potential still seems to be there for the former two (as for Kirby, wait and see, and UVA pitcher history in the bigs in recent years is spotty, at best). Luis Ortiz is a nice big arm, but for all his potential, he's never really shown that "big". A lot of people seem to love Isen Diaz, but he's still a work in progress far away. A guy like Monte Harrison seemed to take a big step last year, but last reports seem to suggest his swing might be picked apart in the upper levels. The one guy I really like Freddy Peralta. He looks like an impact arm, but one wonders if they'll be patient enough with him in the rotation. As for trading for Yelich ... it's hard to see their raw pieces being able to net Yelich without Brinson. Even with Brinson, I imagine the Marlins will want more. Yelich's contracts makes dealing Brinson for him reasonable, but it really depends on the total package. It's hard for me to imagine the Brewers landing Yelich without Brinson. I'd have to think it would be almost impossible. I'm not huge on Orlando Arcia (he had one big season offensively in the minors that got people really jazzed, but that always seemed more like an outlier), but if the Marlins liked him, if I'm the Brewers, I'd ponder moving Arcia in a package instead of Brinson. They have some middle infielders coming up (Diaz/Dubon) and could find a stopgap veteran at short and wait on things. Brinson's potential seems more tantalizing.

Jon Mota's coaching now, huh? Completely missed that, but good for him.

I'm a bit surprised that the rough idea of 4/60 or 5/75 or so for Cobb seems to be something that's too high for teams. I think I'd be fine with a straight 4/60 for Cobb, but it sure looks like the market is going to be a lot more down than it seems (certainly, part of it may be that there are still so many options available), unless a team steps up. It does make Cashman's idea that Darvish might be closer to 5/90 seem a bit more plausible. Curious which team is going to blink first. Thing is, some of the teams rumored have positioned themselves so that they aren't in desperate need to jump hard (Nats/Yankees/Cubs). Curious if a team like the Twins, who are a bit more desperate, may go hard for someone now and try to wrap something up. Honestly, as badly as the Orioles have bungled this off-season, 4/60 seems borderline doable for them, so I wonder if they get involved. Phillies have been wanting to make a splash ... these numbers seem fine for them, which would give them flexibility to trade assets for more pitching.

With the way their roster is set, I keep thinking that something involving Baez is the most likely way to pry Yelich loose, but if their starting price for the Braves started with Acuna, it doesn't seem like a Yelich move anytime soon is likely.

I don't know about anyone else, but yeah, certainly opt outs tend to favor the player. I'm not too keen on long term deals with arms, and I doubt we're going to get another agent doing a deal like Wei-Yin Chen's type of opt out (IIRC, his contract was backloaded, so he had less incentive to opt out unless he had a monstrous first couple of years, which he clearly didn't). I do think for arms that are in their prime years, opt outs are the basically the way to go, and that, for better or worse, if you want to land said arm, they'll probably get an opt out from someone. All that said, I tend to think the prices on some guys are going to come down, and if you can get Cobb at a reasonable 4 years to Darvish's potential contract (gotta think it's at least 5 and maybe up to 7), depending on the numbers, I might prefer Cobb.