toonsterwu

Thing is, this turned out to be a fairly weak draft, and with our limited pool, they probably couldn't take some gambles they otherwise might've wanted to. Looking at the guys that were on board for each pick ... I'm not all that troubled by any of the selections. It was just hard to expect a home run draft this year considering the system is what it is. There's some ceiling with Clark, and it sounds like with Miller.

Gotta say, I'm fairly pleased with the draft so far, relative to expectations considering where we picked. Three solid college arms (I'm assuming that they are pretty certain all three will sign ... of the three, if Bailey Clark thought he could figure it out as a starter, that's the one I'd worry about, but I doubt he passes up 5th round). Of course, Hatch is a redshirt sophomore, so a bit more leverage, but figuring that they are certain on that. Looking at the names on board, there were probably a couple names I preferred over Hatch, but not by enough to matter (I still like Gallen a bit). That said, Hatch is a solid arm with some mid-rotation ceiling. That's not bad. Miller sounds fascinating in terms of potentially having some more in him. Taking a chance on some ceiling, instead of say, a safer pick like Sharawyn, is fine by me. Clark's got fascinating upside, although I remember he was talked about pre-season in the ACC and then just fell off. It's a great gamble ... wonder how they pace him? Going to be a fascinating project. All in all, pretty pleased. As a UVA fan, a bit disappointed Wentz and Nolan Jones went that high. Got to think they sign. Still, getting Kranick/Murdock to help out the staff next season would be a nice boost.

I'm not ready to go that far yet, as I still think Pierce Johnson could make far a dang interesting pen arm, and to a certain extent, I do wonder about Underwood in the pen, although oddly, I'm not as intrigued about that option as I am about Pierce in the pen (comparatively speaking). Dunno what it is ... feel like Pierce could perhaps attack guys a bit more than Underwood? If Blackburn and Tseng are the types of guys we are crowing about in 2-3 years as guys who made it ... that isn't exactly a great note. It's nice. I mean ... that's like Orioles commentators (forgot who I was listening to the other day) crowing about the MIke Wright's and Tyler WIlson's of the world ... it's nice to develop those guys, but most organizations have those types, and those are the guys you splash a little money to fill out the depth charts. WIth the way things are sort of log-jamming at the top of the system in some areas (sort of), I'm not averse to dealing some pieces off for pitching prospects, if possible. Just not a lot to really get excited about, arm wise, so far. Of course, bigger trades have priority first.

It's rare that I'm lower on a UVA guy than the National consensus ... but I still am a bit puzzled with Thaiss going that high. Trying to rationalize it a bit ... he is a really, really good and disciplined hitter, and there is some power, just not likely huge power. Going to be interesting how that plays out. Of course, if he sticks behind the dish, then it's a great pick. As for the draft ... I found it ... interesting. At first glance, the Cardinals seemed to do a great job, taking a good gamble in Perez, picking up Carlson, and getting a good college arm in Dakota Hudson there. Padres seemed to have a risky draft, but it could really payoff down the line. Really like the Rays and Josh Lowe. Nothing seemed too bad at first glance ... Hudson Sanchez has an interesting enough bat that with the number of picks they have, sure. As a UVA fan, I'm glad that none of the highly touted guys from their good group signed for next year have been picked yet - Nolan Jones, Joey Wentz, Max Kranick, Noah Murdock. I'm hoping for Jones and one of the arms to make it to UVA, although it seems quite likely that some teams will assess their situations tonight and try and make some of them a big offer tomorrow.

a month ago, I wouldve laughed at this thought, but I wonder if Connor Jones is there at 104. With his struggles down the stretch, plus low k's, and recent uva pitching history ... I wonder. Still think he probably gets popped in the 2nd.

At this moment in time, I would not think of Happ as a top 100 guy. He's striking out ... what 1/4th of the time, without hitting for a high average and without hitting for a lot of pop. I think Happ can certainly work his way back into top 100 contention by season's end ... but as of now, I'm hard pressed to buy into it (since his bat is going to be his calling card) unless the minors are really that weak overall. Contreras and Torres should be safely top 30. Right now, I think Almora might even slide up a bit, maybe top 70. Eloy probably gets in top 75, and maybe even top 50. I think Clifton could get some votes as of now to be back end top 100. If Vogelbach keeps hitting and hitting with power, wouldn't surprise me if he got some votes for back end top 100. I gotta think the aforementioned names, as of this moment in time, are it, though, as possible top 100 guys, unless someone takes a major step forward (or someone comes back, like de la Cruz, and lights it up).

Decent approach, good raw tools. The raw power is there to go with the aforementioned speed. I believe AzPhil said he was like a firetruck in Arizona, or something like that. Something about him just barreling and charging hard. Of course, biggest problem is, for all his raw tools, his hit tool simply isn't there right now. I half think he may Logan Watkins his way up a bit - that is, he'll click for a stretch, in the summer perhaps, and put up intriguing enough numbers that, to go along with his tools, will be mildly intriguing to look at (like his 2nd half last year at SB. Of course, could also see an Alcantara like breakout at some point, only to settle down. A mildly intriguing raw guy with tools.

I can get behind Eloy ahead of Albert. I was sort of torn - I'm not particularly high on Almora ... but I think he's close to ready and Eloy still has some concerns along with being further away. Raisin, who would you fill out the top 10 with? I could probably go a million ways on the last 3 spots of a top 10 right now.

Keep thinking that there seems like a lot of teams that could be desperate at the trade deadline and wonder if some potential to take advantage of them could exist. I mean, all teams could be desperate, but some teams seem more liable, like Arizona - Sunk a ton of money to make a run, traded a bunch of assets. Marlins - They pushed in with Wei Yin Chen. Angels - Thin system, antsy owner. Still don't buy them selling Trout, much as that would make sense. Detroit - Antsy owner, thin system, aging core. Kansas City - Defending their title. Going to watch them with some intrigue the next few months because of the Moustakas injury, although even if Candelario is hot, he might be too raw for them to think about. Blue Jays - Impending FA's could lead to a sell-off if they fall too far, but if they are close, I think they push, despite the weak system. Rogers made good money on the playoff run last year, and factor in Shapiro and Atkins newly installed with what they perceive as a weak system, I could see them try to "Preller" things and chuck away some guys from the previous regime. A couple more teams could probably fit into the mix of teams that could be really desperate. Just wonder on the potential of making secondary trades, prospect for prospect type moves, with some of our excess (of course, any big deal would take priority ... not suggesting making secondary moves first). __________ Keep wondering if there's any trade concepts that could really surprise out of the blue, akin to how the Nomar trade played out for the Red Sox many years ago. Doesn't seem like it, but just wonder.

I think we're sufficiently deep enough into the season that it's fair to ask how different would the Cubs Top Prospect List look right now. That said, one could argue that the order of this list's top 4 might stay the same, with the big question of where to place Eloy. I'd probably lean 4 (ahead of Happ), but I could see a case for 3 or 5. After that, it gets a bit tougher to figure out. For me, Cease is still up there in that 2nd 5, as is Candelario. I'd give strong consideration to moving Trevor Clifton all the way up, I still think Zagunis has a case for top 10. Edwards Jr. and Caratini could be in the mix. Maybe Hudson would be in the mix on upside. Much as I've hung on with Underwood, it's enough for me to slide him down, even though I still have some hope and I still think he could be an intriguing late inning arm. I think I'd probably go something like 1a. Torres - Still lean towards him on talent and better May, but sure, I get Contreras 1b. Contreras 3. Almora 4. Jimenez 5. Happ 6. Cease 7. Candelario 8. Clifton 9. Edwards Jr. 10. Caratini 11. Zagunis Feels like there could be a big shakeup after the top 2 in the next month or so, depending on how guys trend.

I think there's a fair point that the Orioles pitching developmental system is a big question mark (actually, what they do a decent job of is the old churn out a bunch of solid end of the rotation/middle relief options) due to the history of their Big "3's" (actually, 4 ... Arrieta/Tillman/Matusz/Britton), and the Bundy/Harvey/Gausman development. That said, in Matusz's case ... I don't know if they really hurt him. I think he just ... tapped out. He was ready in 2009. They gave him every chance, and he had a horrid, uh, 2011? He had split problems, IIRC, and had trouble the deeper he went. I really think they didn't do him wrong that much. Doesn't mean he can't make it as a solid end of the rotation lefty - with a different coach, perhaps, but I don't think they did him wrong. One could argue with Arrieta, they didn't show enough patience (even, then... that's debatable as well ... ). With Matusz, not sure. There weren't any glaring mechanical issues, like Arrieta, or "stuff" usage, that I recall. Anyhow, all that said, i do think he could perhaps be fixed and be a fine pen lefty. I'd be all for bringing him in and seeing if the could perhaps work with him at AAA a bit. In Buchholz's case, the idea would be to bring him over for the pen this year, utilize our financial strength and pick up his option and have him in the mix to challenge for Hammel's vacated rotation spot (actually, Matusz could be an idea for that as well). That said, with how bad the pitching market is next year, it's quite possible a lot of teams could have interest in Buchholz and drive up the price, at which point, it's a more debatable move.

Since this is a musings thread ... I know I really shouldn't be intrigued with Zagunis. He's exactly the type of guy that in the past, I wouldn't be that intrigued with. Still ... I can't help but be intrigued with him. He's hitting .333/.444/.520 in May. He's hitting for enough power, showing the same solid approach. He should be strong defensively. Perhaps he never becomes a star, but I can't help but think there's a potentially solid pro that has the chance to be more than a depth OF. He just does enough of everything ... dunno, I really shouldn't like him as much as I do. As intriguing as Candelario has been this month, Zagunis has been that much better. I really do hope Candelario keeps it up. Still think he could be our most intriguing non-Torres trade chip if he keeps hitting - 3rd base still isn't a deep and strong position.

Northsider, to be quite honest, I wouldn't do that much, but from a "do I think that would be enough?", I would hope so. Really, considering how elite prospects are protected, a package starting with Torres should be able to get a pen arm, as long as Torres doesn't fall flat on his face the next month or so. That said, my point wasn't on individual value - my point on d was that the value of two up the middle guys with offensive ceiling probably tops that of Torres/Vogelbach. It's debatable, though. ____ I'm not in love with Matusz. I think he can be an effective LOOGY, as he has been in the past, but I don't think he's more than that. I think they'll probably take a run, but I imagine past pedigree will likely lead to several teams giving him a look. _____ I'm actually intrigued with the idea of whether or not Clay Buchholz can be had. That said, with Carson Smith out for the year, the Red Sox may be comfortable with the idea of shifting Buchholz into Smith's role. Still, if he can be had on the cheap, I would definitely be intrigued.

I'm open to anything, a lot of it dependent on how the team looks in the summer, but I don't think a straight package comparison makes sense in that a) Yankees may try to move Miller sooner than later, placing a higher value on Betances b) Kimbrel was signed down, while, unless I'm mistaken, Betances is still in arbitration c) Off-season vs. Summer Trades d) I think a Margot/Guerra package is far more valuable than Torres/Vogelbach ... two up the middle guys with offensive ceilings ... Guerra isn't that far away, tools/skillwise from Torres. Would also add that Logan Allen was a very good arm talent as well. The Giles trade is probably a better one to use as a comparison in terms of the value of Giles/Betances, but I'm not inclined to give such a huge package unless dominant pen arm is our only need. It may very well be, but even then, there seems to be as good a chance that a cheaper pen arm would be on the market that would be equally as successful in filling our needs.

Much as I used to be quite intrigued with Starling Peralta coming up (and he had a very good spring with Arizona that year he was selected in Rule 5 as well), I really don't think of him as an interesting pen arm in the upper levels. This isn't to say he couldn't make it ... but he doesn't strike me as a late inning guy if everything falls into place ... he doesn't even strike me as an Al Albuquerque type of pen guy. I mean, I get you are talking about floor and ceiling, but with pen arms, I think you have to give more to ceiling than floor, but that's me. Peralta just doesn't seem that interesting. ____ Good to see Candelario getting hot and hitting with power. Zagunis has been red hot and hitting for pop as well.

Huge win for LSU. Gotta think that this might solidify a national seed for them, although hard to see SEC get 5. I guess if Virginia falters in the ACC tournament, they could get 5. I much prefer the SEC tournament than the ACC tournament. Hate this whole pool play thing to decide a conference champion.

That's my point exactly. Much as I am a UVA fan ... I just don't see a top bat in Thaiss to justify a first round pick ... but it seems like mocks are leaning that way, with suggestions that he may have a deal worked out. Even if a team is saving money, Thaiss, by virtue of going in the first, would likely (I guess depending on which team, it's possible there could be weird machinations at play that would negate this, but that probability is less than the opposite) make more than he would later on. If Alec Hansen finishes strong, I figure some team with a big pool will pop in that late first/supp range and roll the dice. I feel like there should be a decent group of college arms in that range at 104, and that's my preference. To be quite honest, I wonder where Mike Sharawyn falls coming off a down season. I wasn't high on him as a first rounder entering the year, but off a down season, he might make sense if he falls there. That said, if the Cubs want to load up and say scrap together the money for two big moves and go with senior signs to round out the top 10 rounds ... I'd be fine with that as well. A lot of ways they could play this.

To the extent that those guys haven't developed, I'm disappointed in some of the arms as well. That said, some of those arms were very solid picks at their spots in the draft. ___ On a side track, for all the talk earlier in this thread about Collins being a sign of a Cubs effect, I actually think Matt Thaiss may end up being a bigger indicator on an increased valuation in bats. If someone guarantees him a first round spot ... I think that'll be very telling in regards to whether or not some teams may be changing approaches to the draft. Collins, much as I like Thaiss, probably has a better shot at sticking behind the plate, and his overall offensive profile is better. Thaiss is very disciplined, but I still question how much power he'll have, and I think there's a very, very slim chance he sticks behind the plate. That profile at first base (really have a hard time seeing him in the OF) seems debatable for a first round pick.

I'm not too enthused with Zach Jackson. Stuff is too inconsistent. That said, yeah, in the midrounds, if he's there, it's a good gamble for a home run. My hunch is that someone pops him before he falls to us, but tough to figure right now.

Really good outing for Clifton to follow up the last start. Granted, both were against Winston-Salem, but the more impressive thing is his lack of walks in either game (at least, so far in this game). Going to be curious to see if this is him turning the corner a tiny bit (because if so, then that's a damn enticing prospect). At the very least, it's good to see his stuff is holding solid at this level.

I'm still a little stunned how Connor Jones has slipped off the first round radar. The talk all year has been that he changed his approach because he knew the staff was thin (with Derek Casey and Evan Sperling unable to go) and that he needed to go deep almost every start out. So, instead of going to his 4-seamer or breaking balls as much, he's been pounding the two-seamer in there, and rather effectively as well. I think he'll go back to a more balanced arsenal once he's in the pros. I think he's far more advanced and ready than Danny Hultzen coming out of college ... and Hultzen was really polished. Now, I understand there's a level of concern on the stance (since UVA pitchers are taught to go in that crouch), and Jones did that back in HS. Still ... off of the first round? Not sure I see that. _____ I get why Puk is 1 ... but dang if I don't like it. More that I'm somewhat wary of Puk.

Too early to tell, but stark differences in tools and skills.

Really comes down to how he performs next two years, but to throw a team out there, I'll go ... Angels and Arte Moreno being unwilling to rebuild.

The way the money is staggered feels like such a huge win for the Nationals. That said, Strasburg, by most indications, simply wanted to stay as long as the contract was reasonable. I'll be stunned if he doesn't opt out in 3 to 4 years, assuming health, and grab another big payday, even if it's in Washington.

Rizzo's in a tough spot. They have to compete now, they have some bad contracts (Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth) that will be tough to move, their aren't many spots to put a guy in, and any big deal likely eats away at some key guys for their long term plans (Victor Robles/Trea Turner would likely top most lists of guys that other teams would want, non-Giolito division, but there's some other pieces in that system). Not that you shy away from big deals, but with some exciting assets in the system, they'll want to be selective. Actually, I might take a hard look at 3rd base. Anthony Rendon just doesn't seem like the guy he was 2 years ago, and at some point, you wonder if that's a more serious indicator than a guy slowly getting back into form. Still, in the short term, you obviously don't do anything (leaving aside the early in the season things). For the Nats, you just wait for now. You wait to see if guys can get going (namely, Rendon, but maybe even Michael Taylor). You wait to see if Giolito is ready, because if Giolito is ready, it opens up a lot of options. With Strasburg resigned now, you could potentially shop one of Gio/Ross/Roark for help. You wait for Trea Turner, and to a lesser extent, Wilmer Difo. If they are ready, you could potentially slide Daniel Murphy to 3rd if Rendon is struggling. If I'm Rizzo, I don't do anything drastic unless it's for a top tier youngster( which is unlikely). The Nationals are well-positioned to contend for the next 4+ years and busting that potential up to make a run now ... you don't do that unless it's for a high impact relatively young guy. You'll need the young talent to balance off the monster deal for Harper that they are hoping to build. I wouldn't want to take on serious long term monetary commitments. If a guy like Josh Reddick is available, it's something to consider, much as they could use a right-handed bat to balance things out. If Ramos cools off, making a run at Jonathon Lucroy makes some sense (this assumes Lucroy keeps hitting as well). They could even consider flipping Ramos as well, if they land Lucroy. Heck, while I don't think it's likely they shop him, say the Yankees keep falling back and decide to blow up the season. Could they shop Starlin Castro and hope to get pieces to retool with? Unlikely, but if they did, it would make some sense for the Nationals as well (could put him at 2nd, Turner at SS, and Murphy at 3rd). A guy like Steve Pearce might really be a solid acquisition, someone with pop that can play OF/1st, but has shown a willingness to slide and move around for his teams (played 2nd for the Orioles as well in 2015).