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toonsterwu

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  1. I absolutely don't get this trade for the Marlins, and I don't love it for the Braves. This deal makes a ton of sense for the Dodgers, and I'm not sure how they walk into trades like this. Sort of feels like how Mike Rizzo walked into a trade for Joe Ross/Trea Turner for Steven Souza Jr. I get Latos has his warts - injuries, supposed clubhouse issues iirc, and so forth ... but he's still a quality arm and that's all the Marlins got for him? I mean, I think they probably could've packaged the comp pick with Morse to any team and gotten a lot of teams to bite if they simply wanted to shed salary. Those three prospects, on paper, look very pedestrian, even accounting for the fact that it's a rental. I get the Braves motivation, I guess, but I don't like it. They are really buying on a 30 year old Olivera. I wouldn't be surprised if they valued the Comp pick as much as Olivera, since they are looking to the future. Bird is an intriguing arm as well, I guess, and Paco Rodriguez, if healthy, could slot in the pen. Still, they gave up a quality young MI prospect in Peraza, a good young, cost-controlled arm in Alex Wood, and two solid pen arms in Johnson/Avilan. Johnson might've been one of the better arms available on the market for the pen. It looks like Wood's taken a step back, but for a young, cost-controlled arm that showed as well as did in the past, even accounting for some concerns about him long term, I don't like it. I get it, though. Love the deal for the Dodgers. Maybe it doesn't pan out, but they shored up the pen, shored up the rotation, adding a quality young talent at the cost of two veterans that weren't necessarily going to fit into the long term outlook (or, in Rodriguez's case, weren't necessary for the long term outlook), and 4 young arms, none of them looking like surefire bets. They basically got a better overall talent in Peraza, and if they decide to go all-in on this year, they are better suited now to go after Price (or someone else) without giving up Seagar or Urias. Just a quality deal for them, IMO.
  2. The well isn't dry at all; that's nonsense. And there's always the risk of ultimately regretting giving up a prospect. That's not a definitive reason in and of itself to not make moves to help the team right way. The Rangers gave up their 4th, 5th, 6th, 17th, 29th prospects and Matt Harrison for Cole Hamels. That's like the Cubs giving up Carl Edwards Jr, Duane Underwood, Albert Almora, Jen Ho Tseng, Jeremy Null, and Clayton Richard on a bigger salary for Hamels. No thanks. I think anyone would give that up in a heartbeat for Hamels and his salary. That's a lot of eh if we're being honest. That said, the Rangers package was far superior to that. I'd take a dinged up Harrison over Richard, and the prospect haul (Alfaro, Thompson, and Williams in particular) is far superior that grouping of Cubs you've listed. For all the talk about whether or not we could've matched the Rangers, I'd suggest that all indications were that the Phillies wanted a catcher of the future, something we didn't really have to give them at anywhere near Alfaro's talent level. That said, it's quite fair to say we couldn't match the Rangers. We really don't have a Jake Thompson level arm, no matter how one feels about Jake Thompson, as a young arm in AA with 2 plus pitches, a solid 3 pitch arsenal, and has shown some command is an intriguing asset. If we're beingfair, Nick Williams raw toolset overwhelms most of our remaining top guys, so if a team bought into his improved discipline, that's a fascinating asset. That's okay, though. We've graduated our key members of our future, and that weakens a system. We still have enough assets that the FO should, if they wanted to, add a key rotation member for the stretch run without sacrificing too much. Again, I've said repeatedly that I didn't see a need to go after elite arms - the need, more than anything, was rotation depth. We had a good one-two punch ... and Hammel was fine as a 3rd/4th piece. For all the talk about Hamels, I look at the cost of Latos and that's the one I sort of wish the Cubs had gotten in on, but I can understand them not going that route.
  3. I'm mildly surprised at the vitriol by Rangers fans to this deal, and looking into it ... I guess I can somewhat understand it. I didn't realize Chi Chi Gonzalez had been that pedestrian - I really haven't been closely following baseball this year, but Gonzalez sure looks more like a fringe ML starter, than the potential 2/3 guy some thought at the beginning. Their positional depth is thinner than in recent year, their ML core is aging, and they just gave up a huge chunk of the deal, thus they better hope Darvish is strong coming back to pair with Hamels. In general, I think this was still a defensible move for Jon Daniels, but thinking about it more, there's a valid case that it might've been the right move for the Rangers.
  4. Well, by fringy stuff I simply meant he relied on a low 90's fastball with sink, and very pedestrian secondary stuff. I guess it's fair to say that a 91 mph (roughly what he averaged pre-injury) sinker isn't fringy, but this isn't exactly a guy with plus stuff. He relied on location and sinking the ball, key attributes, but his overall arsenal was never that hot to begin with, dating back to his Braves days. I'm aware that his changeup was viewed positively by some coming up the ladder, but it was always somewhat of a mixed bag, IMO. I tend to find Thompson exciting, as a pitcher in the upper levels at age 21 with a plus fastball, plus breaking ball, solid changeup, and some command has a potential to be a very solid long run asset, but yeah, the Cubs certainly lack that type of guy. Pierce Johnson almost was that guy, but never put it together. Of course, as with all pitchers, TINSTAAP, so we'll have to wait and see on Thompson, although it wouldn't surprise me to see him in the bigs at some point in 2016. Of course, Phillies have a decent bundle of young arms in the upper levels now, so there's some competition.
  5. Wasn't the price on Carrasco supposedly through the roof? Wasn't there a rumor of something like Daniel Norris, Dalton Pompey, and another guy? As for Harrison, I think the main value of him being in the deal is that he balances out the money a bit. The expectation game can't be that high with a guy who had fringy stuff to begin with, coming off the type of injury/surgery that he had. Thompson's the key arm to the deal, and combined with Alfaro, probably the reason why this was a hard deal for the Cubs to match, if the premise that the Rangers wanted a catcher of the future in return is true.
  6. That Dodgers/Braves/Marlins trade is so confusing in some respects, and it seems like it's not done. I am curious how the pieces fall for Andrew Friedman and Co. in the end, as it seems like a potential bridge deal, aimed at getting them assets to help get other areas filled, while also strengthening their rotation. I'm also curious how this fits the Braves 2017+ plans to give up Alex Wood (did the backing up of his performance this year lead to him getting pushed aside this quick?). Finally, curious what the end pieces are for Latos, because despite all his warts and his supposed clubhouse concerns, he's a solid pitcher.
  7. My first inclination is ... it's a fairly reasonable deal. It seems quite obvious that they prioritized adding a future catcher in this deal (thus, Alfaro here, and the reported rumors of Susac and other catchers from other teams). Alfaro's nice ... but there's some risk there, moreso offensively, where he looks to be a low average, power guy if he works out. Still, catcher was the primary position they wanted filled, and Alfaro's a solid, interesting option. Thus, I'm not about to bash Theo over not getting this deal done. The Cubs might've simply not had the right core asset to intrigue them, regardless of wherever guys were ranked. The inclusion of Jake Thompson and Matt Harrison make this deal a tiny bit better than previously reported, as Thompson is a quality starting pitching prospect, a potential mid-rotation, if not a tick better, arm. If healthy, Harrison gives the Phillies a solid rotation option that they could potentially shop for a decent return this winter/next season. The rest of the deal is ... interesting. Williams is a left fielder who has hit well this year, I think there's a case for Williams ahead of a guy like McKinney, as Williams probably has more raw power, should hit for contact with his bat command, and both guys are probably slated for LF. The big question is whether or not that discipline improvement is real. If it is ... he should zoom up post-season lists. Jerod Eickhoff and Alec Asher are both intriguing arms, but it's debatable if either is a starter long-term. They both feel like arms that could end up being better off in the pen. I mean, Justin Grimm was probably a better arm talent than those guys, but as secondary pieces to a trade ... it's okay. At the end of the deal, if there's "disappointment" from the Phillies fan side, it's more due to unrealistic expectations. This is a fairly reasonable deal for both sides. It's the type of deal that should've been expected - not some deal with multiple elite prospects, but a deal that gives the Phillies some intriguing young talent to move forward with and clears the deck of some salary (Harrison's inclusion is probably aimed at balancing out the numbers moreso than anything). The Rangers get an ace to work with, and will have a nice one-two punch for next year, and they didn't gut the system, and the trade really involved some guys with some questions.
  8. Interesting deal for the Nats. That's probably burning the bridge with Storen's future in some respects, although they needed to add pen depth this year. The pen should be fine for the playoffs - I expect Joe Ross to come back up and go to the pen (or he could take the 5th job from say, Fister, and move to the pen playoff time). I mean ... they get Papelbon at 11 mil next year, which is ... eh ... but it saves them some, and they got money to go along for this year in the trade. Leaving aside hurt feelings with Storen, it's a good move. A bit surprised the Angels added two lefty outfielders, and Victorino, but okay. It didn't cost much. Glad Cubs didn't force the issue on Zobrist. That simply wasn't worth it.
  9. If that's the deal, sign me up. That's a good deal even if its Torres.
  10. I'd be fairly surprised on Baltimore (Hardy signed long term, Machado can slide over at any point). I'd be a bit surprised on the Yankees as well (they seem to like the saved money, they like Gregorius' defense, and they don't really need Reyes' offense.
  11. Like I said, I guess they just said screw pitching, we're just gonna slug the competition into oblivion. I meant for the Rox. That trade was great for the Jays. I really like this deal for the Rockies. I get it for the Jays. They have the pitching depth, they are in full win-now mode, and Hoffman might never reach his ceiling due to the aggressive mechanics needed to reach said ceiling. This was a major upgrade, and they still keep enough key assets to make a move for pitching. Rockies a) Clear out Tulo's contract and turn the page b) Get three big time arms. If you want to criticize them for not getting positional talent, fine, but they got talent. If everything pans out (and that rarely happens ..., but if), you potentially have 3 strong rotation pieces. Heck, even if one pans out, that's a solid deal. c) Give Trevor Story a look at some point in the near future (Reyes being there beyond a short time would be surprising). I think Story's more a decent 2nd-tier starter, but who knows. He's young and intriguing enough at short. d) Save money to potentially extend Arenado early. Judging from right now ... I think it's a pretty good deal for Bridich.
  12. I don't think you are going to get a 28 year old quality arm with 2 arb years left (I think) without giving up a top level prospect like Torres. I'd be fairly stunned if a McKinney and anything from our system package would be enough. I could be wrong, but that'd be my hunch. I'd be very surprised if a Castro led package could get it done. Maybe Baez, although no real feel on how Preller may feel about Baez-type players.
  13. Out of curiosity, why? Or is it just an aging shortstop moving to another team? The talent the Cubs gave up for Nomar (Francis Beltran, Brendan Harris, Justin Jones, Alex Gonzalez) isn't really comparable to this trade. Justin Jones was probably the key to the deal in some respects, as it got the veterans that Boston wanted to shore things up, but really, if you wanted to say Justin Jones then is comparable to Jesus Tinoco now ... that would be fair. Jeff Hoffman is a better talent than any piece in that deal, even including when Brendan Harris got a bit over-hyped. Miguel Castro has more starting potential than Francis Beltran did at his best. Or is it more an aging team (Cubs/Blue Jays) making a last gasp move comparison?
  14. Out of curiosity, why? Or is it just an aging shortstop moving to another team? The talent the Cubs gave up for Nomar (Francis Beltran, Brendan Harris, Justin Jones, Alex Gonzalez) isn't really comparable to this trade. Justin Jones was probably the key to the deal in some respects, as it got the veterans that Boston wanted to shore things up, but really, if you wanted to say Justin Jones then is comparable to Jesus Tinoco now ... that would be fair. Jeff Hoffman is a better talent than any piece in that deal, even including when Brendan Harris got a bit over-hyped. Miguel Castro has more starting potential than Francis Beltran did at his best.
  15. Do the Mets have the money for that? As for the trade, sounds like Jesus Tinoco is the last piece, and that's another nice, big arm. Overall, I think Bridich and Jocketty have done well for their clubs with the first two big moves of this trade season.
  16. Really stunning move there for the Blue Jays. Wonder if that signals that the pitching market got too costly for them and they decided to go a separate route. Or it could be that this was simply an intriguing enough deal to go after. For the Blue Jays side ... I'll be curious who that third piece is. They gave up two high ceiling, electric arms, and Colorado has the time to show patience with a raw talent like Castro and a rehab guy like Hoffman. This loads up the offense, but that pitching is still suspect, and I really wonder if they'll be able to make the pitching move really needed. Anthoupoulos may be under some pressure, so perhaps he goes all-in akin to what Beane did last year. We'll see. Kiley had that fascinating update on the changes in Hoffman this year ... wonder if they simply felt that, to keep him healthy, his ceiling wasn't going to be THAT high. For the Rockies ... it's tough to judge this deal without knowing the third piece ... and what's next. It seems quite likely that Jose Reyes may get shipped off. Even if they eat some money, okay. They've got Trevor Story in AAA, although I think Story is probably more a utility guy long run. Still, he's good enough on a rebuilding team to take a peak at that you should save what you can and ship Reyes off, and add some assets. Seems quite clear with the Tulo move that they are rebuilding, so I would other moves in the future, namely, CarGo, and I wonder if they could sell high on some guys (two former Cubs come to mind in that regards, even if both are still young ... LeMahieu and Rusin). Still, they added two high ceiling arms ... two guys that, if they develop, could headline a rotation as the first and 2nd piece. Sure, if you even get one as a mid-rotation arm, that's a win, but that's the type of gambit they had to make. They have the time to be patient with both guys and see if they can develop their max ceiling, rather than forcing them up. More importantly, this perhaps allows Bridich to turn the page and just start fresh, which was probably needed in Colorado. By moving the headline piece, he gets a bit more leeway and time to rebuild. Overall, it seems like a solid, and probably much needed, deal, even if the prospects don't pan out. Sometimes, simply turning the page is a big step, and they've already got some young pieces in the majors.
  17. There should be zero incentive to overpay for Zobrist for us. At best, he would get a dash of time in the IF, with his main value in the OF. We're better off finding a cheaper option for the OF than to overpay for Zobrist. Still say Rayburn makes a ton of sense, but the price on him may be going too high as well.
  18. I think this is a heck of a return for the Reds ... but an understandable move for the Royals. That said, for a couple months of Cueto ... this was better than I thought the Reds could get. 3 solid young arms is a high price to pay, even accounting for TINSTAAP (and I'm not as sold on Finnegan as a starter as some) As for whether or not this could impact other deals ... I doubt this impacts Hamels that much, as the crux, for the Phillies, as to why Hamels should cost a lot was a combination of his elite stature and the years of control you would get. I could see this impacting say, a Samardzija deal, another impending FA who was a bit down the pecking order from Cueto. All in all, an interesting first mega move.
  19. I think Nottingham's profile is probably going to make him one of those borderline top 100 candidates - legit power, some defensive questions behind the plate, and relatively far away. I could see it go either way ... that general profile tends to feel like borderline top 100. As for the deal ... I'm always fascinated with Beane deals, and from his perspective, I totally get this deal. He goes after what he can't get in FA - power hitters, and gets a solid arm along with it. Sure, the guys far away, but they have some system depth that he they didn't need to force a return. Overall value ... I think it's about right. I could buy arguments on both sides of it, tbh, and it really would probably be dependent solely on how one feels about Nottingham. I wonder if this move will really set the tone for the market, or if it will be Beane striking early for something he liked.
  20. [tweet] [/tweet] Trading for Gausman and fixing him would be awesome, but at that point I'd almost feel bad for so thoroughly taking advantage of the Orioles. I don't know if we match up all that well with them though. I just don't see the Gausman fit. In general, I'd be surprised if they dealt Gausman for anything other than a controllable, high level arm that they can control for a few years (basically, using Gausman as a part of a package for a top young starter). Beyond that, their needs don't mesh that well with us. They could look for corner OF, 1st, and maybe C, positionally, but they probably are searching for arms moreso than anything, with Bundy/Harvey dinged up, and Wei-Yin Chen likely on his way out next year (as, barring injury, he should be in line for a big deal). He needs to improve his breaking ball ... but he's been needing to do that since his LSU days. For some guys, it just never happens. Obviously, he's still young enough that you never know, but the biggest issue with the Orioles run for Gausman has been the way he's been jerked around. They have some solid pitching coaches in Baltimore (Dave Wallace being the big league pitching coach), but it's been their plan with Gausman. He was simply rushed too fast when the breaking ball was an issue dating back to college, and then being jerked between the pen/rotation, and majors/minors, didn't help.
  21. I can definitely understand the Phillies being lukewarm on a Castro/Baez led package (especially since JP Crawford could be ready at some point in 2016), but I've got to think that we're probably 5th on that totem pole as a result, since it's hard to imagine that any of the prospects would be untouchable (I mean, if they're offering Castro/Baez ... I doubt they would hold Underwood off the table if that's what it takes to get it done). Now, I guess it's quite possible the Cubs are holding back say, Gleyber Torres perhaps, and perhaps that swings things. Realistically, the fit isn't great for both clubs, and I'm fine with missing on Hamels. I've got to think MacPhail will allow a deal to go through if it's a solid deal, since the number of FA's this winter may make it hard for them to get their price. Gotta think LA is the huge favorite here. As for finding under-the-radar arms, guys like Arrieta, well, keep in mind that when Arrieta came over the Orioles were exasperated with him even though he was having a ton of bad luck and really looked like he was putting it together. Arrieta had far more opportunities than guys like Appel/Gausman/Beede/Norris and so forth have had, and I'd be surprised if any of those arms were traded, but I guess I could imagine Norris and Beede moreso than the others. Beede seems eh to me based on current reports. I don't see the Orioles moving Gausman unless it's for a controllable arm (and I have some doubts that Gausman's breaking ball will ever get good enough to become a top starter, although that would obviously be a fun Bosio project to follow). I really don't see the Cubs going after really under-the-radar guy, and I don't see them swinging a deal for a top prospect young arm (more because I doubt there is a really good match with a club as obviously a young controllable top prospect arm would be fine). Thinking along the Arrieta profile, and I doubt they would have much interest in him, but if you wanted an under-the-radar name that hasn't had the opportunity ... someone like Anthony Ranaudo would seem to fit an Arrieta-ish profile, a guy who still, by most accounts, has two plus pitches, but hasn't put it together. Yordano Ventura fits that Arrieta-ish profile, guy with some bad luck, top stuff, but I don't see the Royals dealing him this year unless it really shores up their chances to make a run (say, it gets them a better starter and helps in other areas). A part of me wondered earlier in the year if Boston would move Wade Miley if they got other pitchers (say Hamels), but he's pitched well since that horrible start. Chris Tillman would sort of fit that profile as well but I don't see them going that route (or I sort of don't want them to).
  22. Tseng's put on a decent row of solid starts. The whole added velocity thing impacted the command, but really, that's okay, as he's young and learning to adjust to it. More importantly, just doesn't seem to have the secondary stuff to really kick it up a notch. Will be curious how AA goes, as I assume he'll get there, if not this year, to start next year. A part of me does wonder, despite the command and 3 solid pitches, if he's the Joe Nathan type of back end starter that might be better off in the pen, where that velocity could play up a bit, and the deeper arsenal isn't as exposed. Would've preferred Candelario staying in A+, in all honesty, but they probably felt he was ready for some reason (sure doesn't feel like a sink-or-swim move situation). I hate the fact that Chesny Young is sort of growing on me, as those are the types of guys that I typically do not let grow on me. Fascinated how he plays in AA. Jeffrey Baez is on a nice little tear lately. I keep thinking he's probably piled up a ton of strikeouts this year, but he hasn't. I sure like how Frandy delaRosa has performed. Wonder how fast he physically matures and can tap into his physical tools on offense. A part of me sees McNutt pitching in Arizona and thinks ... has it been that long since there was an actual debate on McNutt vs. Archer. Boy time goes by.
  23. Did you even see what Detroit gave up for him with an additional year of control? I actually couldn't remember and had to google it just now. Wow... that makes me a little more optimistic. If we could get Price to agree to an extension that would be sweet. To be fair, I wasn't keen on the trade then, thinking it was great for Detroit, (I think), but in hindsight, they got a solid return. Adames last year isn't Torres this year ... but Adames last year isn't that far behind Torres this year. Smyly was a solid young starter throwing the ball well and having 3 arb years, and Nick Franklin was a former top prospect who had not figured out the majors yet but still had some intrigue. I mean ... the Cubs don't have a comparable to last year's Smyly, but we're looking at something like Torres/Alcantara/+ to get a similar package to what the Rays got last year (of course, for 2 cost-controlled years of an elite starter, you'd consider that deal). That Detroit system always managed to sneakily develop some intriguing under-the-radar guys. As for Price, if they move him, sure, we could probably compete for him, and he might have interest coming here to join Maddon (weren't they close). They seem to want to reload moreso than rebuild, though, so I'm not certain we're great fits, as our top prospects/young trade chips are still a bit boom or bust (like Baez), or too far away (Torres). Furthermore, they'd probably want some close to ready starting young pitching, something we don't exactly have a pile of.
  24. I think, with Torres, that's probably a touch too much value wise (although if it becomes a strong seller's market ... could I see something of that value happening for Ross? Perhaps). Torres is fine as the centerpiece, and the type of kid Preller would love, but 2 of Underwood/CJ/Sands/Steele, plus Alcantara and Villanueva? Tyson Ross has what, 2 years of arb left? I tend to think, from a value perspective, McKinney is a notch below Torres, and as such, if it's McKinney as the centerpiece, that might be borderline okay value wise. I don't think I'd love either deal, but that's more because I'm still of the feeling that we could get an impending FA arm at a lower player cost and sign a FA in the winter, and still be in a strong position for the wildcard spot. _____ Such a hard market to gauge, as a strong run for any number of teams and they could change their opinions on selling. Really, only two teams are dead in the water, and that's the Marlins and Phillies. A strong run from any number of teams right now could change their perspective on the trade deadline. For example, if the Orioles get swept by the Yankees and fall to around 6-8 games back in the wild card, it would not surprise me if they opted to sell, despite current rumors. The lack of a strong farm, plus the number of impending FA's, could lead them that way, despite the fact that a ton of Orioles fans still feel like they could be the best team in the division. Secretly, I'm still sort of hoping the Orioles fall out, as I think it's best for them, and I think they could provide some quality options for the Cubs at a cheaper price. I mean, the Mariners should sell, but Zduriencik is probably pinned to the wall in terms of his future and probably won't. Wouldn't surprise me if there end up being some creative trades that don't necessarily follow the buyers/sellers markers. ______ As for Hamels, assuming we don't move any current MLB player (including Schwarber), I'm not necessarily convinced we have enough just from the farm system to make a deal, particularly with Baez out. I mean, Torres/McKinney is a good package, and if it's Torres/McKinney and change, you have to consider it, much as I love Torres, but even if the price comes down, it seems quite likely that they should be able to find at least a comparable package out there, if not slightly better (although the counter argument could be that a prospect like Torres might be the best they can get, ceiling wise). I'd still rather avoid Hamels and go after an impending FA starter in a trade and sign a FA in the winter. The Cubs should make a deal. There's simply enough assets in the upper levels sitting around that likely won't factor in our future that even if it's only for secondary pieces, you make the move to make a push now, and show two of the best players in the game that you are making that push. I still would be fine if we added something like Ryan Raburn (or even the Orioles Steve Pearce, who has lost a ton of PT with his offensive struggles but is still a decent utility option), a pen arm, and a mid-rotation-ish starter. Even if they aren't big names, that should be enough to give us a push this year without sacrificing too many assets.
  25. in all honesty, not that high. sure it's not ... exciting ... but he just came off a college season and jumped to the pros. If he's like this next year to start, then the concern meter jumps up dramatically.
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