toonsterwu
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Everything posted by toonsterwu
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 6-29-15
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Rather impressive that Ryan Williams has maintained his success so far. Going to be interesting if he can Hendricks his way up (or, hopefully, his stuff jumps). Stephen Bruno is red-hot again, but he's going to have to stay hot to really maintain helium. -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 6-29-15
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Very nice day for Matt Rose. Going to be curious how that one turns out. One of the more intriguing names from this draft, IMO. Certainly hope that after this season, he's able to get back to 3rd base. -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 6-27-15
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I really was intrigued with Stinnett out of college. The college arm with some upside has always intrigued me, even dating back to before Jay Jackson. This has been a fairly disappointing season, and it'll be interesting to hear post-season reviews of his work in some respects (was he working on something, was he hampered, etceteras). Considering his age and walk rate, this is a big 2nd half/winter for him. I mean, he'll be 24 next spring, and really hasn't done anything to get up the ladder. If they make a determination that he simply doesn't have it, I do wonder about a quick shift to the pen and whether or not that could lead to some return, rather than rolling him out for another year or two as a starter. Jen-Ho Tseng has had an interesting year. Considering age and that he worked to add velo, repeating A+ again next year wouldn't be the worst thing. Wonder where his command dip comes from - not hard to imagine that the velo change may be a factor. Drake Britton getting another start still interests me a tiny bit. Probably nothing of note at the end, as he's still more likely a pen arm, but a lefty power sinker starter always grabs my attention (granted, got bombed last time out). I do hope Matt Rose is able to get back to 3rd base this fall. He'd an interesting 3rd base guy in the lower minors for us. Going off the Cubs for a sec, as I'm too lazy to post in another thread right now ... Marco Hernandez's success probably won't sustain, and the discipline numbers aren't any different from what he's shown in his history with us ... but he is hitting for power for the Red Sox, and that alone makes him intriguing again. Wonder if the Red Sox adjusted his swing, as I haven't seen any videos, or if he's just physically maturing. He was really quick through the zone when he hit left-handed (and I see he's listed as just a lefty hitter now). Still have no problem with the Hernandez for Doubront move - just curious if he's coming into this own. -
Smardzjia
toonsterwu replied to Lefty's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Samardzija (total side point: never understood why that was such a hard name to spell, in all honesty) ... would be fine. Again, I don't think we necessarily need a stud 3rd starter, although that would certainly be nice. More than anything, we need a solid starter that can go deep and give us innings in the 4th/5th slot. Samardzija back in the NL with the Cubs could see an uptick in his K's, and if he keeps the same command he's shown in the AL, he'd be a very solid 4th starter after Hammel. It's tough to gauge what the cost will be, but based on the statements about acquiring an arm to control, it would seem to suggest that Samardzija might be more of a 2nd tier option. There's going to be a decent amount of arms on the market, and maybe some surprises as well, so cost is tough to gauge. I would not be surprised if the eventual cost for Samardzija would be more of an Arismendy Alcantara level of talent, moreso than a Vogelbach, and that might be a bit tougher to swallow since there should be some solid arms on the market that might come at cheaper prices. -
Skimming the above - I don't see any chance Baltimore deals Gausman unless the deal is such a huge win for them. They are trying to get him into the rotation permanently, and with their FA's this winter, he will be in the rotation, barring a surprise. All indications in the Baltimore area in the past month seem to be that they are still rather high on him and view him as a key asset for the future, particularly with Bundy still having issues. Now, I wouldn't be surprised if Baltimore dealt a SP to fill another area, thus opening up a space for Gausman. I could see Atlanta moving Teheran, but a part of me isn't all that enthused. (I could see Atlanta move anyone if the price was right that it helps with their rebuild)
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In terms of a wish list, I won't lie - a part of me would, after pen arm, love an impact bat (likely LF) if they commit to Schwarber as a catcher. I feel like that would give the lineup added depth, and I think in a series, the idea of Lester/Arrieta/Hammel isn't all that bad. That said, I don't find it particularly likely that they pursue a bat. The likely impact bats will be too costly, and it's debatable if the 2nd tier bats would be better than a Coghlan. In terms of trying to think of other names on the SP/RP/versatile positional asset thoughts (to be clear, this isn't a wish/dream list of any sort ... not that I would be against adding any of these guys) - Ryan Raburn - I'm not sure if the Indians will sell, although they probably should. If they did, he might be a cheap option to consider, someone that could perhaps platoon with Coghlan and be thought of as a pseudo-versatile player (realistically, both guys are OF's now, but you could probably live with them in the IF in an emergency situation). Wade Miley - Wittenmeyer indicated (iirc) young and controllable. It seems quite likely that the Cubs and Red Sox could view starters in similar fashion. The Red Sox likely have to clear a spot or two. Joe Kelly is gone already (although he could be back up in the pen ... I'd love to see him in short burst pen role like Zach Britton), and it's possible they clear another space. I'd ask about Buchholz first, but Buchholz could be costly. Would they move Miley, who is signed for a relative cheap amount? Dunno, but if they did, he'd be a nice 4/5 option. Koji Uehara - I think Papelbon is still the most likely pen arm to go to the Cubs, but Uehara might be a fallback option if the Red Sox really sell. Andrew Cashner - Okay ... just throwing this name out there for a second. I doubt they move him (think it's more likely they move say, Ian Kennedy perhaps)... but Cashner's getting expensive soon, and they have a lot of money committed. Shields is signed down, Ross is their key arm for the future. Could they perhaps ponder moving Cashner a year early to restock the system? Again, just spitballing names. As a 3rd option in the rotation ... I'd be fine with it (same goes for a Jeff Samardzija). A lot of other possibilities, and for a creative front office, this should lead to some fun speculation in the coming weeks.
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College Baseball 2015
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
No way anyone can legitimately say to see this coming. I mean ... UVA doesn't win that series against UNC, they aren't in the ACC, let alone, the NCAA tournament (I know there was some chatter that they could sneak in even without being in the ACC tournament, but I didn't think that was possible). They were stringing the staff together all year - leave aside the SP issues down the stretch ... the pen was a mess all year, lacking the go to options of years past. Then, you get to Supers against a talented Maryland squad ... and UVA pulls a rabbit out with two late game wins against a very good college closer (although still think Szefc goofed by not going to Alex Robinson). They run into Florida with Brandon Waddell on short rest, instead of Connor Jones, and somehow piece it together. They turn to their starting LF (due to injuries) to relieve Game 1, partly to save arms ... and they turn to their freshman CF to start Game 2. Sborz didn't have his out-pith, his slider, yesterday at all. I know the Oregon State win is up there, and I know Fresno State stands out for it's 4th seed status, but this has to be one of the more surprising CWS wins in recent memory when all factors all considered. Now, no doubt, UVA had the raw talent all along, and their freshmen came through late ... but damn surprising and damn exciting. -
College Baseball 2015
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I'm honestly somewhat flabbergasted that UVA won the National Title, partly because I thought the only way they could win was if Connor Jones pulled out Game 1. That said, UVA was the heavy favorite least year and lost, and Vandy was the heavy favorite this year. I think Corbin pulled Buehler too early, forcing him to go with mixing and matching, although truthfully, that probably didn't hurt them. What hurt them was the inability for their offense to do much. A lot of credit to Brandon Waddell - just a polished pitcher, and one wonders if he can add a tick or two to his velocity, if he could be really good at the next level. It's odd, but in a series that he didn't do so well in, I thought Dansby Swanson was more impressive than I imagined. Still more of a the best of a mediocre draft crop at the top than an elite guy, but the swing is so level when he's on ... I think I can buy him as a solid average (if we're throwing numbers, maybe .270-.290) that hits for average HR (maybe 10-15) power and is solid with the glove. A very valuable asset. Kilichowski didn't impress me that much out of the pen, but could've been an off day. Watching Fulmer pitch game 1, I think I can buy him being a starter short term. Now, long term, not sure (but thinking about the Chris Sale rumors, perhaps Rick Hahn has some formula in place on getting guys with quality arms that might be excellent starters short term and then dealing them away when the innings start piling up?) Fulmer's stuff was strong even as the innings piled up. His velocity was still mid-90's in the 8th, and breaking stuff was sharp. Contrast that to the talented, but younger, Connor Jones, whose velocity tailed off as he hit the 100+ pitch mark. Scary thing is that both teams, despite losing a lot of key players, are loaded for the future. Vandy's arm depth seems ridiculous - Fulmer/Pfeiffer/Buehler all went in the top 2 rounds this year, and it's not hard to imagine Kyle Wright, John Kilichowski, Jordan Sheffield, Colin Snider and others going high in the future. Despite losing Swanson/Wiel/Wiseman and others, this should still be a pretty good offensive lineup with guys like Toffey/Kendall stepping forth in the near future. I thought UVA was over-hyped this pre-season and viewed this as somewhat of a rebuilding season that could go well if the pitching could carry it. They should be loaded offensively next year with Smith (reminds me a lot of Anthony Rizzo), Thaiss, Clement, Pinero, Haseley, and a few more, to go with a good freshman class. Question will be the pitching. Derek Casey should get a rotation spot after Connor Jones, and it'll be interesting to see if they put Adam Haseley there, or go with a potential freshman like Evan Sperling. Bullpen will have a lot of sorting out to do, as they lose Sborz. -
Well, Dewees going overslot ... makes some sense I guess. He did have 2 more years of eligibility, so there was some leverage, and the general scouting consensus seemed high on him. The expectation of slot/under-slot had more to do with his age. Wonder what Twomey got. Looking at the numbers now, can't believe he got anything significant.
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College Baseball 2015
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Gonna be a tough one for UVA, as Waddell is on short rest and I'm not sure what to expect out of Kirby. That said, Haseley pitching (although Haseley was a good prep arm ... that said, he was topping out mid-80's, albeit with nice cutting action ... reminds me of a young Waddell in some respects ... going to be curious if UVA gives him a rotation spot next year), Clement (not hard to imagine him getting stronger and developing into a quality shortstop in 2 years when Pinero is gone) and Woodruff delivering ... not the recipe anyone would expect to win Game 2 of a CWS Final vs. a loaded Vanderbilt team. Sborz also didn't have a slider and was able to work his way through on a very tired arm (at the start of CWS, he was hitting 95 ... he wasn't hitting that yesterday). Been a wonderful run for UVA. Hope they come through, but I am not expecting it. ___ As a side note, wow, Jordan Sheffield has an awesome arm. He reminds me quite a bit of Chris Archer in the low minors (not a race thing ... a "he throws 94-97 with nasty natural life, but needs a lot of work on command" comparison ... there are other comparisons, but Archer was the first one that came to mind ... you could compare him to a freshman year Sborz). He needs to learn that 94 with command can be nastier than 97 without it, but just an awesome arm to try and mold. Going to be fascinating how he develops next year. -
schitler back.
toonsterwu replied to sontensei's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I don't have a problem with not calling anyone up - I conditioned my comment on the idea if they wanted an extra arm. For some reason, they felt better about having another arm. Okay. That said, I get passing Germen up. His command is quite sketchy. You might as well give Medina a look if you are going to go back to Germen. One can argue that Schlitter hasn't had the best command in the minors, but he at least hasn't been walking a ton of folks in the bigs. It's not hard to see why they might prefer that over guys with command problems, especially since neither Medina or Germen has a significant "stuff" advantage on Schlitter. Too much is being made about the last man in the pen. If Schlitter starts getting used a ton ... then I'd be annoyed. Heck, if he isn't back in the minors soon, I'll be annoyed. -
College Baseball 2015
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Well, I might be the only one left here really following the CWS closely, but what a game last night to finish out the triple-header (of sorts - started with the continuation of Sunday's Fullerton-Vandy game). Waddell was brilliant after a rough start - man he looked really good. If he ever could consistently pitch in the low 90's (he can reach back and get to 92/93 right now, but he sits more 88-89 on the fastball), he could be really intriguing at the next level (and I know some folks believe he might be able to add some strength and iron out some things to get that extra tick - we'll see if the Pirates can get that to happen). Then again, key for him, as with all "pitchability" lefties is locating, and he was on last night, particularly with that nasty cutter that just bored in on hitters. Had arguably his best change-up of the year as well. Shaky most of the year, but on last night. Just brilliant work after the first inning against a superb lineup. Sborz was excellent for the final two innings. That's a crazy play he had to make, showing a ton of composure - first and third with no out, and a bullet by Harrison Bader. Got his glove up at the last second, knocked the glove off his hand, but he was calm enough to grab the ball, look at 3rd to hold the runner, look at first, and then still throw to 2nd to get Ryan Larson ... and calm enough for the whole team to be laughing on the mound after the play when the trainers came out to check. Almost lost in his outing was the fact that, in the 9th, Sborz came out to mow down Schwarz/Reed/Alonso with basically one pitch, his slider that he through in there at 84-88. Just a filthy, filthy pitch last night, with a ton of depth to it. His fastball was solid at 91-94 when he came on in the 8th, but the slider was so good and they kept chasing it. Virginia's offense didn't do much either, which kept it a game all the way through, but they did the one thing they had to do, which was to work AJ Puk and get him out of the game. Just an awesome win, and puts Virginia at a really advantageous position with their thin staff. They could go back with Connor Jones on Friday, keeping Waddell available for a possible Saturday start, but my hunch is that, with three days off, they may go with Nathan Kirby to try and get 4-5, maybe piece together an inning or two with the shaky middle relief (Bettinger?), and then turn it over to Sborz in the 7th or so. That saves Jones for a possible Saturday game if necessary, or to line up Jones/Waddell for the championship series, knock on wood. -
schitler back.
toonsterwu replied to sontensei's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I think you missed my point in the initial comment. You probably aren't making a 40 man switch to give Francescon or Michael Jensen a look at this stage (two guys I would prefer to see, at this point, over Schlitter. Jokisch/Beeler are around as emergency starter options, so they really aren't calling them up to fill in as a middle reliever unless it's an absolute necessity. That leaves what, Medina and CJ Edwards? I can get the intrigue in wanting Edwards up, but I imagine they aren't going to call him up for a middle relief role and impact whatever development plan they have him on. As for Medina, he lacks command for AAA. Look, this isn't some defense of Schlitter. I don't really care for him, have never cared for his value to our organization a ton since he's joined our system (always thought Blake Parker was as intriguing as him if not moreso, but Schlitter seemed to get more looks). Perhaps you feel that it's reasonable to make the 40 man move now for Francescon or Jensen - if so, I can get behind that, but I perfectly understand not going that route. Simply put, he's the last person in the pen right now, and I simply don't care that much, and when you combine it with the realistic options on hand, I'm okay with this move if they wanted another arm up. -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 6-15-15
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I mildly hope that the Drake Britton as a starter thing continues. I imagine this is a spot start, though. I liked him coming up in the Red Sox system as a starter, but he had command problems, amongst other things, that forced the move to the pen. Very nice start from Ryan Williams. Hannemann's hot, as is Bruno. Let's see if both can keep it up and make themselves intriguing secondary assets for the system. Chesny Young just keeps hitting. Saw an interview where he called himself a grinder, but grinder's don't hit this well. Yeah, I know, 100 AB's at a level doesn't mean much, and yeah, his ceiling isn't huge, and yeah, I've never been exactly enamored with guys solely dependent upon a hit tool (although to be fair, Young has some speed, and by most accounts, is solid defensively), and yeah, his numbers will come down, but he does intrigue me a tiny bit. Performance always intrigues a bit. -
Schwarber coming up!!!!!
toonsterwu replied to davell's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
My favorite part of the release was how adamant Theo is about Schwarber going to Iowa. At the end of the day, this feels like ... when a kid gets a reward for doing well on a test. Schwarber worked hard all year, "aced" AA, gets his reward, and moves on to the next test. I think it sends a great message up and down the system that if you work hard, they'll reward you. Furthermore, this likely gives Willson Contrereas regular catching duties, which can only be a positive for them, and thus, a positive for the Cubs. I wonder what the corresponding AAA move is, not that it's a big deal. -
College Baseball 2015
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Really tough one for Fullerton today. If it doesn't storm yesterday, Eshelman probably pitches them to victory, putting Vandy and LSU in an elimination game. That said, Peltzmeier left it over the plate enough. Gonna be tough for them to scrap together enough pitching to go through TCU, I think. Miami over Arkansas wasn't surprising, but I was surprised at how solid the pitching was. They simply didn't have the pitching depth. They had their chances, though, against UVA and Miami. UVA's giving Puk enough to handle right now. Gonna be tough to break through, as he's just that good, and their main pen guys are rested to come in early. Still, the discipline of the UVA hitters against an electric arm is nice to see. Gonna be curious if Waddell can keep it up ... he's a tough pitcher, but the fastball command was shaky early. -
He's a junior, though. I don't know if I had any expectations, to be quite honest. I simply figured he'd get near slot. If there's any savings to go after guys like Rose and Twomey, it's probably with the seniors. As a side note, tough one of Peltzmeier today, giving the walkoff 2 run shot. He did leave it over the plate, although it was tailing a bit, enough that you probably tip your cap to the hitter as much as you say it was a bad pitch.
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If there is anything left, I think it probably goes to Rose and Twomey. I doubt (could be wrong) they make those two picks to start Day 3 unless they had a clear idea what it would take, and whether or not they could clear the money for it. I think craig's probably got the general gist right - Wilson probably eats up most of the savings from the senior signs, and they use the rest on Rose and/or Twomey.
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schitler back.
toonsterwu replied to sontensei's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I don't particularly get the anger toward Schlitter. Sure, he's not great, but he's useful enough as the AAA call-up option. I don't think I'm going to over-react to 6.2 innings of work in the majors. He throws hard, has decent enough stuff. If there's an issue with the pen, it's at the "top". I may want to see some other arms get a look, but realistically, you aren't making 40 man roster moves for the last man in the pen right now. Edwards isn't going to get called up for that role right now, and neither is Medina. Beeler/Jokisch are around as emergency starters. -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 6-14-15
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I wonder when they push Torres up. At his age, there's always an argument to let him stay at a level, but he's been so good and Myrtle Beach looks to have a decent shot for the playoffs this year that moving him up makes sense. They don't need to demote Penalver to balance it out - they could move an org guy like Lockhart around. Penalver can still get a start or two each week at short for Myrtle Beach, with Torres getting a day off to DH or rest. Back to back solid enough starts for Beeler. A part of me is mildly curious about him as a pen arm, as a power sinker guy from the pen, akin to the switch Zach Britton made. -
College Baseball 2015
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Impressive win for UVA. I admit, I was worried throughout, telling my friend who I was watching the game with that I thought UVA was going to lose. I'm a bit mystified that Connor Jones didn't go to his change-up at all. He didn't have much today, as his command was shaky, and a lot of hanging breaking balls, but he fought through for 6. I might just become a believer in Benintendi. That's a really quick stroke with a lot of balance. Trey Killian was much better than last year. More an end of the rotation type if he makes it up, but works quick and throws strike. Zach Jackson looked shaky. For all the talk about him, I expected him to dominate. He had a nasty curve that he didn't really go to, and the slider (I think?)/fastball didn't look that great. Don't like throwing Sborz three innings, but I guess with the days off, Sborz will likely be available on Monday as well. Still think Sborz was under-rated int he pre-draft hype. I think that slider's very good, and the fastball has the velo. Still not sure he's a starter though. Daniel Pinero was shaky in the field this year, but if he plays as well as he can ... I might just be a believer that he can be a 6'5" shortstop, as he's athletic and smooth. Consistency's the biggest issue. He should add some more power, and could be a fascinating prospect next year. McCarthy can hit. I think Tampa got a good one there. This gives UVA a chance. Still ... Brandon Waddell gets the nod on Monday, and he's been hit or miss all year. I imagine Kirby and Sborz will be ready to go, as UVA's best, really, only chane is to keep winning and avoid the extra games as they lack the pitching depth as a possible Game 3 starter, Alec Bettinger, was shelled last time out. -
craig, that's what I meant by depth draft - a lot of "college organizational/filler" guys that can be seeded throughout the system, perhaps enough cheaper sign guys that get into the upper levels of the minors. I think sometimes we under-appreciate the necessity, if not the significance of "organizational filler" guys as it pertains to maintaining a healthy system, as they allow the top players to develop at a suitable. At the end of the day, though, this is a touch spin, because at the end of the day, the draft will be judged by the number of guys that make it to the majors (I argued a few posts back that 2010 really isn't that bad on account of Beeler/Jokish/Szczur/Kurcz, but even then, I'd be the first to recognize that it won't be considered a good draft in any way/shape/form). What I would say is that, while every draft, you always take some "organizational fillers", we took, quantity wise, what seems to be more than expected (a couple other teams without huge pools "gambled" on several prep guys in the teens/twenties that probably won't sign), which does make me wonder if a) They thought this draft was thin, and getting guys they know can fill a system was something they valued and/or b) They are placing strong emphasis on going hard in the international market and felt that they could utilize the combination of the two, draft and IFA, to have a rounded year in terms of new additions. You are right, at the end of the day, it very well might be nothing but a product of the system leading them to go "all-in" on the top 4 guys. _____ As a side note, Chesny Young isn't exactly a guy I would consider as a "organizational filler" pick in that, IIRC, he was well-regarded at one of the collegiate leagues ... Northwoods? Don't recall which one right now, but there are some 11th round on college guys that are picked that weren't well-regarded at any point. The guy in this year's draft I would compare to that would be a guy like Kyle Twomey. In all honesty, Twomey is actually quite fascinating and if we can get him signed, that'll be a nice pick-up there. Thinking about it right now, it's quite possible we spent extra money on Day 3, but just not on HS kids (outside of perhaps Cresto). Twomey's a nice arm and I gotta think he's going to take more than what is essentially "spare change". Rose might cost a bit more than "spare change" as well - he was dinged up this year and could feel that going back to 3rd base and having a strong senior year could push him up. He's a young kid too, would only be 21 in his senior year. _____ Sort of a separate side note, but Higgins profile at catcher sort of feels like it could be Caratini without the raw power. Of course, Higgins profile also sounds like a bunch of college catchers that never really pan out.

