davell

I have a feeling that if Hendry was still our GM, Wright would be the Peavy/Roberts trade target of this offseason.

Here's all we really know: the Cubs have 3.2 mill available for the 6th pick. The last pick of the 1st round is 1.6 mill. That's actually quite a bit higher than slot for the last pick. Teams aren't required to spend ALL of their slot money, so maybe the 2nd thru 10th round all have some semblance of "overslot" built in? The 180 total amount seems disconcerting obviously, but in the end, I still think quite a few guys will take what they can get, because they now know that if they're not truly a top 30 talent, they're kind of stuck. Because leverage can't get them more cash. On the other hand, it IS confirmed the IFA 2.9 mill crap starts immediately, right? Ace brought it up on BN that he thought that may start next year. I really hope that's the case, but I think it starts immediately, right?

It's certainly possible we could go out and sign Edwin Jackson, a guy in his prime, and watch him turn into a frontline starter. And do that for close to the same money we'll have in Garza for next year. Plus, add some extremely valuable assets in the process. Which is what Theo has kind of eluded to, wanting to add assets to the organization.

I want a top 25 pitching prospect, a top 100 hitting prospect and 2 guys that would fall somewhere in the Cubs top 20 as well. If we can't get this, keep him and try to give him some help.

Dave, your method basically squashes our chances for the next couple of seasons. The way I lined it up, does that team not look like a team that can compete? Jackson/Castro/Fielder/Cespedes/Soriano/Soto/LeMahieu/Barney as the lineup with a rotation of Garza/Wilson/Oakland guy/Dempster/Zambrano. Followed by having another 30 mill or so the following season to spend as well. In this exact scenario, you may have added 2 elite bats AND 2 elite pitchers in ONE offseason with the ability to certainly add at least one more of each the following one as well. Especially with the amount of FA pitching available next offseason. Isn't it worth trying to compete this way instead of trying to find an elusive trade that right now doesn't even appear to be on the horizon.

Levine thinks our payroll will be around 130 mill for next season. Personally, I think it could grow closer to 140 because of the new CBA. But, I'll use 130 for this exercise. We have tons of flexibility. We can trade Marmol and save 7 mill and probably replace him with someone already on the team. We can trade Byrd and save another 6.5. Hell, we may wind up trading Z, in which case we probably save between 5 and 8 mill. This doesn't even count moving Garza, Soto, or Marshall, who could all net solid to excellent returns including guys who'd help the major league roster THIS year. But, let's just figure we trade Byrd and Marmol. That would give us 45 mill to play with and that's using Levine's possible low figure. You can sign Prince, Cespedes, CJ, and add a low priced SP as well by trading prospects and keep it inside that range. I'm using Fielder's 1st year at 20, Cespedes at 5, CJ's at 15, and a low cost frontline pitcher(figure an Oakland guy) for 5 as well. A lineup of Jackson/Castro/Fielder/Cespedes/Soriano/Soto/LeMahieu/Barney is solid and a staff of Garza/Wilson/Oakland guy/Dempster/Zambrano is damn good. Team could win the division next year if Jackson hits enough and Cespedes is solid. If not? You've got Demp and Z coming off the books after the season, along with a few smaller contracts as well and you'll have another 35 mill or so to spend on upgrades, not even counting on a guy like Cashner, McNutt, Sczcur, Lake, Vitters, or whoever else making it all the more easier to fill another spot or two by then.

I'm not wanting to wait for guys like Baez Vogelbach etc. What I'd like to see is a few big trades for guys that are on the right side of 30, but about to get too expensive for their current team (or available for some other reason, like the Logan Morrison, Colby Rasmus situations). I mentioned someplace earlier, the Cubs added Ramirez and DLee in two trades within about 6 or 8 months of each other. Let's get a few of our impact guys that way. Or sign someone like Fielder and not give up anyone. Bingo. First of all, while we're certainly not privvy to who all may actually get shopped, adding elite guys typically means you're going to give up premium talent to get them. I think quite a bit has changed in the game involving trading over the past 5 years or so as well, making it much harder to pull those type of deals off. Develop as much as you can, add impact guys through FA and if it presents itself, add through trading as well. Cost value for cheap controllable guys has gone up dramatically, making it much harder to pull off those deals.

With the new CBA rules restricting how much we'll be able to spend on the draft and IFA, I think it's probable that our major league payroll just got bumped up 7 to 10 mill this offseason. Only way this won't be the case is if Theo decides to shove it up Selig's ass and take the huge financial penalties for overspending in those areas. With this being the case Dave, what are you going to do with this extra money? Since it's not even going to be available for the areas you(and me) would prefer spending it. bottom line is I think it's likely we'll be able to get a Fielder or Pujols AND a Darvish or CJ if that's what we want to do. And still have some cash left over to address a few other possible needs.

Dave, while I agree completely that having an elite talent at 1B is NOT a necessity, having elitee bats period, is. And if you look at what's out there this offseason and next, you build whichever way makes the most sense. And we have a need at 1B and that's where the elite talent is. Adding another elite bat next season is not going to be easy through FA as there just aren't many out there. We have the ability to add an elite pitcher in both classes as well. So, if you add 2 bigtime bats and 2 bigtime pitchers to this team, aren't they contenders? Because we can probably afford 4 guys at a combined 70 mill or so heading into the 2013 season. I think doing it this way takes advantage of still having Castro well below cost value at that point. Waiting until 3 or 4 seasons to start spending and you're paying him much closer to market value by then. With development from Brett Jackson, we may have another very cheap solid regular as well. By your way of thinking, it seems like you want to wait until Baez, Vogelbach, Maples, or whoever else is in the same position Castro and maybe. Jackson are right now. Positions don't matter, I'll agree, but you take what you can get and as far as I'm concerned, I think we're lucky we have a need where the impact guys from this FA class play.

Not Conger related, but since this thread is basically about replacing Geo, Tampa is shaping up like an excellent landing spot for Soto, now that they've traded >aso and have Chirinos as his backup. Soto for Davis or Cobb? Maybe get a C+ guy from them as well?

I've written a couple articles on the subject of Pujols' and Fielder's value. If you haven't seen them, you can find them on the NSBB front page. Just about any 1B alternative is better than paying these guys much more than they'll be worth, and being bound to them for several severely overpaid decline years. Non answers. I asked very specific questions, how about giving specific answers in return.

Let's go at it this way then: Who do you want at 1B for the Cubs in 2012? And under what kind of contract? And if it's a stopgap guy, then what 1B do you foresee and when, that you think is a difference maker that we should go after? Also, under what type of contract, both in years and money do you think Prince or Pujols makes sense for the Cubs?

So, what you're basically saying is you want us to be the first major market team in MLB to never sign a contract that the player doesn't produce at an elite level, or up to their monetary value? Because the Yanks, Red Sox, Phils and any other major market team signs guys that are going to put them in the same boat or worse off than we'd be with adding Prince or Pujols. It's an advantage to have this option. It's why we shouldn't ever have to talk about "making a serious run in 3 years". We can contend EVERY year. And the other major market teams do it the exact way you're saying not to.

This is really an exercise of futility, it seems. Dave, can you acknowledge the Cubs can take on Prince at 7 or 8 years or Pujols at 8 to 10 years and be just fine longterm if they add other players still in their primes or develop players that can have impact instead of just role players? If the answer to this is "yes" then what's even being discussed here? Because with the amount of money coming off the books this year and next, we certainly have the ability to make 3 or 4 major moves, which can certainly put this team into true contendership. And if one or even two of them don't perform at an extreme level all the way to the end of their deals, we should be able to absorb them. That's what well ran major market franchises do, isn't it?

I doubt he'll come THAT cheaply, but if he could be had for a Nick Struck and Steve Clevenger or something like that, I'd be in for sure.

Didn't see it mentioned, but Lamb had TJS in June. So his 2012 season will certainly be affected. I'm not sure the Royals would trade him right now anyway, because until he steps on the mound and shows something again, I doubt he's dealt period. I'm not aware of any pitcher getting dealt before he pitches after having TJS. Could be wrong though. Either way, I'm not all that thrilled with either package. I love the idea of Porcello and Turner. A package involving Profar would be my favorite though. But I doubt Texas would move him. If I could get a Perez/Olt/Odor/Mendez package, I'd be happy enough, just not thrilled, since Profar wouldn't be in it.

I'd do that in a heartbeat and worry about where to put Alonso later.personally, if I'm another team, I'm not going to trade for Marmol at 2/16 when Heath Bell, Ryan Madson, K Rod, Frank Francisco, Matt Capps, Brad Lidge, Jon Rauch, and Octavio Dotel are on the market currently and will just cost money. If we can get even a decent return for him, I'm going to be surprised. Not a knock on Marmol either, he's certainly better than most, if noot all, of these guys. But they're just going to cost money and many of them will wind up taking one year deals, which gives their signing teams another year to come up with an "in house" answer longterm.

Trading Garza does NOT keep us from contending in 2012. By losing his salary, we could add Jackson, a guy with breakout potential and a middle of the rotation guy at worst, to replace him. You'd be adding conceivably 2 top 100 prospects, one of which is almost definitely a top 50 guy. This rebuilds the system somewhat, which is necessary and going to be a little harder to do with the draft restrictions. Then, nothing keeps us from trading for a frontline guy as well. Preferrably one of the Oakland guys, so they're cheap on top of everything else.

Goldstein was asked if Yonder Alonso could net them a top of the rotation guy and he responded by saying to get Shields, Gio, or Garza it'd probably take Alonso, Grandal, and 2 mid level guys. I don't want to deal him within the division, but if it's a comparable package from another team, I think I'd bite. That's a pretty solid return.

None of those packages would make me excited about giving up on next season. I don't think trading him means you have to give up on next season though. If you got Porcello and Turner for him(my personal favorite and I doubt it's possible) you could slide Porcello into the back end of the staff and hope he grows into much more. Then go out and sign Jackson for 3 and 36 or so and hope that he blossoms into what he's capable of as well. And you'd have added a future 1 or 2 for the future in Turner as well. Go ahead and sign Fielder, try for Cespedes, if you miss on him, go get a Kubel or something like that. Get your scrap heap 3rd baseman dujour, Ian Stewart, or trade for Headley or Encarnacion. And if you really want to make a run this year, try and get one of Cahill, Gio, or McCarthy for a package headlined by Szczur, McNutt, and Castillo. If that doesn't work, you could flip Turner as the main piece and maybe add Szczur? You'd have Prince at 1B, Stewart at 3B, probably Kubel in RF, with a staff of an Oakland guy, Jackson, Dempster, Zambrano, and Porcello. Lots of moves, but I think that team contends and makes us better for the future as well.

I keep thinking of whether it's a good idea or not to trade him, but I think we can and still find a way to contend next season. Anyway, here are some potebtial targets, any of these hold any interest? To the Angels for Conger, Richards, and Segura. To Toronto for Snider, Drabek, and Arencibia. To the Nats for Cole, Norris, and Solis. To the Rangers for Perez, Olt, and Ramirez. To the Red Sox for Kalish, Middlebrooks, and Cecchini. To the Rockies for Arenado and Rosario. To Detroit for Porcello and Turner. To the Yanks for Sanchez, Banuelos, and Heathcott. Personally, I'd prefer finding a way to get some guys ready to go, but I can't see Texas trading Holland or Ogando. I'd love to get Montero from the Yanks, but I think he's probably an AL lifer. Anyway, if we deal him, my guess is it's to one of these teams.

Yeah, that doesn't sound good at all. We're going to have to trade for a frontline starter, if we're going to acquire one, in all likelihood.

He shouldn't wait too long, because teams will definitely be making moves by the Winter Meetings anyway.

There were 12 Type A's offered arb and 22 Type B's. Some of which will wind up back with their current team, but I was wrong when I said 4 of the top 60ish, probably more like 4 of the top 80 or so. JeffH makes a great point though, if we sign a Type A, it'll be the last of those picks we lose. Keeping picks is a slight advantage towards the signings of Cespedes and/or Darvish though.

Vogelbach is probably going to start his career off like Jaff Decker did. Great plate discipline, bad body, but surprisingly athletic. Vogelbach's power is for real though. And I think he'll quickly become a BA "favorite" type. According to AZPhil reports, he's not even a hindrance on the base paths. I think we're all going to love following this guy.