davell

I'm sure there will be quite a few differing opinions on what we're going to do this offseason, as there are plenty of people wanting splashes and a quick return to respectability and others that want or at least see a more patient approach. Personally, I think the renovation goes hand in hand with this rebuild and we won't see a payroll even reaching 100 mill until probably 2015. That does NOT mean I expect us to suck as badly as this year until then though. Yes, I fully expect 2013 to be very bad, but that's the end of our 100 loss possible seasons. I figure this offseason will be more in tune with the last one, just maybe a few more FA signings and possibly a tad better quality to where at least there's a tiny bit of hope that if things clicked, the team COULD conceivably be in contention at the deadline. Here's my first full mock offseason, as I've done plenty of these things half-assed previously. Catching- I fully expect us to go into next year with both Castillo and Clevenger on our major league roster, Castillo starting obviously. Payroll outlay here-1 million Corner Infield- Rizzo is a lock, of course and I do think Valbuena is here as a backup, who's hitting arb actually, so I'll guess he gets 800K. I still don't see LaHair getting moved, especially to Japan, my guess is we'll constantly be trying to deal him, but for now he's still here as a backup 1B/LF/RF. As for our starting 3B, I'll go with Youkilis. FO has ties with him and I think he'll have to take a one year deal, my guess is he gets 8 mill from us. I think Vitters is dealt in a package for pitching. Payroll outlay here is 9.5 mill Middle Infield- Castro is a lock and will be making 5 mill next season. I actually see Barney getting dealt and us going a different direction at 2B, probably a bit more offensive minded and using Cardenas as our backup MI, possibly with Valbuena taking SS if Castro needs a rest or is injured at some point. I figure we'll get some journeyman to stash at AAA to use in an emergency situation as well. The 2B I'll go with here is Kelly Johnson, giving him a 2 year, 12 mill contract. Total payroll out;ay is 11.5 mill for the MI. Outfield- I do think Soriano is dealt this offseason and I'll say it's to the Yankees. They need cheap production, he's played there already and it'd give them money to spend elsewhere, since they appear hell-bent on avoiding the luxury tax. I'll guess we send 30 of the 36 mill remaining. Return? I'll say we get Brett Marshall and Bichette Jr as the return for him. I also think we will trade FOR Ryan Sweeney, giving up Jae Hoon Ha, in the process for Sweeney's final arb year, where he'll make 2 mill or so. I say this because I think we'll have Brett as our opening day CFer and if he falters, we at least have some sort of competent major leaguer to fall back on here. DeJesus in right and it leaves us needing a starting LFer. I'll go with Scott Hairston here, not a lot of options and I'll say we give him a 2 year, 10 mill deal. Total payroll outlay, counting the 15 mill we're paying Soriano is 26.75 mill. Total payroll for our lineup becomes 48.75 mill and the lineup would look like this, I suppose. RF DeJesus SS Castro 1B Rizzo 3B Youkilis LF Hairston 2B Johnson C Castillo CF B Jackson Bench of Clevenger, LaHair, Valbuena, Cardenas, and Sweeney. Starting Pitching- Garza and Shark appear to be here for the start of the year(Garza) and longterm(Shark) Both are in arb, I'll say Garza gets a bump up to 11.5 mill and Shark makes 4 mill himself. Travis Wood is in the mix and will either be a long guy or a 5th starter. The major trade I see us making is Barney, Vitters, and Marco Hernandez to Oakland for Sonny Gray and Tom Milone. Milone and Gray both have some warts, Milone has pitched well though in the large park at least and certainly has pitchibility. Gray's upside has diminished somewhat, but still has a chance at being a midrotation guy or possible closer. I figure we'll add 2 SP's via FA this offseason and one of them will be Shaun Marcum, getting a 1 year 8 mill deal, plus incentives. The other I'll say is Scott Feldman, getting 2 years and 14 mill from us. Total outlay for starting pitching is 31 mill and gives us a rotation of.... Shark Garza Marcum Feldman Wood/Milone Bullpen- Marmol enters the year as our closer, making 9.8 mill. Wood or Millone is our long guy, making league minimum. I think Corpas gets kept and will make 1.2 mill in his last year of arb. Russell hits arb for the first time and I see him making a mill. Cabrera or Dolis and Beliveau or Rusin or Raley make the team and we add a Chad Durbin for 2 mill on a year deal, giving us a pen of.... Marmol Durbin Russell Corpas Cabrera/Dolis Beliveau/Rusin/Raley Wood/Millone Total bullpen outlay is 15.5 mill. Total team payroll is 99.75 mill, after counting the Soler and Concepcion contracts. Obviously, it's not a sexy team, but it may not be an awful one and it doesn't do anything to hurt our flexibility moving forward. Exciting? [expletive] no. But it's fairly close to what I see happening this offseason. The bullpen is better than it was heading into this past season and I think the lineup is too. The SP probably is about the same, replacing Dempster with Marcum and Maholm with Feldman. At any rate, flame away at my utterly average offseason and give some thoughts as to what you may think the offseason looks like......

Geez, I completely missed that omission. I wouldn't have him THAT high either, but I can see BA possibly having him as a backend top 100 guy, since they did last year. Top 10 though for sure. I saw Mike Newman said today, that he heard he put on some weight this year, not the good kind. Newman was very high on him, but didn't see him this year, for what it's worth.

.264/.326/.385 with 34 extra base hits in 474 at bats, 32 walks and 29 K's. Certainly not gaudy numbers, but definitely unlucky, solid for that league and especially so, considering he was 19 all season long.

Good lord, that's a bad list. No Paniagua, no Alcantara, no Torreyes, no Hernandez, and somehow Zych, McNutt, and Hatley are in it? I'm not even all that apposed to Zych, but leaving out those 4 is pitiful and I don't really see Whitenack as anything more than a probale lost hope, for now, as well. Plenty of guys could and should be above him as well.

If I had to lay money on it, I'd bet they go with Vitters.

You can almost piece together an entire BA top 10 from the clues we've been given. Our first 5 probably stay what Callis just said, Paniagua is in there evidently, I can't see them leaving Candelario out, same with Vogelbach. Since Callis mentioned Johnson as a guy that could be our 2nd arm instead of Paniagua and was our highest drafted pitcher, I figure he's probably there. I doubt they drop Szczur completely out of the top 10, so it only leaves one spot, with Vitters, Alcantara, Amaya, Lake, or Maples as the 10th guy, since Callis has also said he won't have Torreyes in his.

I'm starting to think Paniagua may very well show up in our top 10 for BA. I think Vizcaino has a decent shot at being a top 100 guy for them and figure Villanueva( based off of being 100 last year) may stick in at the bottom for them. I figure Vogelbach has the next best chance, albeit a very small one.

Right now, we have 2 left on the road with the Nats and 3 with the Pirates. We've got 4 at home with the Pirates, and 3 each with the Reds and Cards. We also have 3 at home with the Astros and 3 apiece on the road with the Rockies, Diamondbacks, and Astros.

We need more, even if Castro AND Rizzo do become superstars. But they aren't easily obtainable and there's signs any of Baez, Soler, or Almora could join them. Since we're NOT sure we even have one, why not let these guys develop, and leave the flexibility so when we KNOW what we have, we're not looking at declining production from some guy we've way overpaid. At least let some of the pitching we've drafted or acquired this year get a year in to see exactly where we even think we sit.

If you want to build from within and you're starting with basically nothing, how long is it supposed to take? And if you want to build from the outside, are you supposed to just conjure up those guys, because they're not exactly plentiful and there's more than one team bidding on them.

I do wonder where Johnson starts next year. I figure Peoria but hope Daytona.

Both Castro and Rizzo can become superstars and it means zilch right now that at 22 and 23 they aren't yet.

Yeah, Vizcaino is definitely my top rated pitcher and 4th overall.

As opposed to the fact that ALL 23 year olds need to be MVP candidates at that age or they suck?

Just curious, is anyone else thinking of putting Paniagua over all the drafted arms from this year?

Must...resist...urge...to...predict...every...affiliates...roster... Yeah, I've thought about it too. I know we'll do it, but I figure we'll add some more guys this offseason, so January probably seems to be the better time to do it.

It's going to be hard to find a more prospect laden team in full season ball next year than Peoria. Daytona with possibly Baez, Soler, and Paniagua will be fun as hell too.

Even with the D aging, I really want LT to be our top priority next offseason, assuming we're still hurting there, which seems likely. If possible, I'd love to address a hole or two on D thru FA and draft D from rounds 2 and on.

What does anyone want Sveum to say? Our roster has already been traded through and has our best pitcher out for the year. We don't even have anyone that's ready to take a look at that's not already getting PT. We can play our best lineup every day and we're still looking at 100 losses and the 2nd pick.

LB needs to be addressed somehow for sure. Brian Price is getting cut today for what it's worth.

I've always kept Kiley McDaniel's comp of Beltran in the back of my mind. But I guess I'm thinking his upside is a .300 hitting, 15ish homer type that is a plus CFer defensively.

With the FO saying we needed tons of young arms, it's cool to see Johnson, Blackburn, Underwood, McNeil, Vizcaino, and Paniagua all added in one year. Just playing the odds, we'll likely end up with a high end prospect or two out of the bunch and one guy that slots into our rotation(Vizcaino hopefully).

Kyle, I just listed who's available in FA for this offseason, what do you want to see? Sure, we can attempt to trade for someone, but who and why, when we have Baez and Villanueva both as solid to better than that type prospects. Mike Olt would be great, but we don't have anything Texas would want enough to give him up.

Yeah, you're beyond "over the top" at this point. He's shown 20/20 ability and good D in CF at every stop. No one thinks he's a 40-40 monster moving forward. But a 30-35% K rate, coupled with a nice walk rate and some pop can turn into a very nice player. Instead of dooming a guy to fail, any realistic fan of a team in our current position should be somewhat optimistic of what he can turn into.

Profer HR in 1st major league at bat. Andrus for Upton this offseason, is my guess.