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davell

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Everything posted by davell

  1. davell
    ABTY mentioned there's basically no interest in Marmol currently. Can't see us adding Wilson, if we've got Marmol and Fujikawa.
  2. davell
    I'll say Brett's overhauled swing ranks pretty high for me. The high ceiling arms obviously. Josh Conway, coming off TJS, could be very interesting-may have found excellent value there. Hopefully seeing Carlos Rodriguez make it to the states, so we can get scouting reports on him.
  3. davell
    Acvording to Passan, Cubs get Hisanori Takahashi on minor league deal with no roster invitation. Solid move. Kind of surprised he didn't get a major league deal. My guess is Howell is off our radar now.
  4. davell
    I think maybe now, you actually take a top 100 pre-draft list(using only guys that have signed, and try to assimilate how many of those guys have value moving forward a year or two. There's not a right way to look at this right now. Its just too soon to truly see the effect of the new CBA yet. I think the way you're looking at it IS going to be the correct way to gauge things, I just don't think we have the proper amount of info to do it yet. May be why so many teams have been this cautious with FA so far. No one has a true feel yet.
  5. davell
    Adding Upton and Bourn, minus Soriano, DeJesus, and Garza does what to the projected wins?
  6. davell
    Kyle, I'm waaaaaay too lazy to reply to your PSD post you singled Olt out on, ignoring everything mentioned here. Tenacity, sticktoitiveness, Kyle's posting tool is plus-plus.
  7. davell
    Thats what makes it hard to do. Upside of an A ball guy versus a guy thats shown some warts after moving up, but is close now. Not a right or wrong answer. And I'll admit I don't consistently go one side over the other myself.
  8. davell
    Kyle, I think you're trying to assign a set value to something that there's not enough data on to do that. The landscape was changed by the CBA in some ways. Less signability guys will be going in front of that pick range. Teams have amped up their scouting quite a bit as well, conceivably allowing for better success rates as well. Plus, there is nothing being accounted for, for the extra monetary advantage it gives you. Hell, you could sign a 10k guy and spread the rest of the 1.3 mill over 3-4 other spots, to enhance your chances and get guys that have dropped somewhat for whatever reason that were all still high on your personal board. Nothing is set up to allow for certain teams to still be better than most either(even if everyone has improved). Bottom line though is its too early and too different of a landscape to just arbitrarily assign percentage values at this, in my mind.
  9. davell
    Round figures for our slots in 2013(close anyway). 6.2, 1.3, .660, .445, .333, .249, .187, .147, .137, and .128. We'll have around 490k in overslot money at the 5% cap as well. Keeping the 2nd rounder COULD allow you to get 3 top 30-40 types, if you're willing to punt away your 6-10 round picks. Maybe take a slight under at 4 or 5 as well. I guess it just depends on how the draft sets up on an individual year obviously, but with the depth we already have, if we kept the 2nd this year, I could see us going for the bigger impact and less quantity approach.
  10. davell
    Castellanos is the only one that fell due to signability concern. He fell into same range as McCullers did though. To where if a team wanted to move money around, he'd still be signable. I figure there will probably be a couple of cases like this each year.
  11. davell
    I'm not arguing that one bit. I do wonder though, if Bourn is a much better option than Crisp, once all factors are considered.
  12. davell
    I'm so used to disagreeing with you, that even when we're on the same side(willing to punt the 2nd) I'm finding things to argue. Each draft is different(no [expletive], huh?). Hard to just look at a singular slot(41) and use it in that way. The new slotting system changes the general way of picking players somewhat now. Every team is spending their allotment basically, players have no choice but be fairly reasonable in their demands(Appel be damned) so players are getting picked more in line with talent now, instead of signability. The truly unsignable guys are falling to round 11 now, where the pick value won't hurt a teams budget. Scouting is more extensive now too, teams get more looks at players by beefing up their personnel. Which, in theory, should lead to less mistakes. I think I'd look at it more from this angle: At pick 41, we're likely to get a top 30 guy on our board. The question is whether this draft(considered weak) is strong enough to where you think that top 30 guy is worth not signing Bourn over and maybe giving up a Junior Lake and Trey McNutt to get Coco Crisp instead.
  13. davell
    Loux was a signability pick. He was considered a top 30-40 talent that year.
  14. davell
    TT, not sure why you're looking at round 2, pick 4, but remember, this is the first draft without typical supplemental picks. Round 2, pick 4 in this upcoming draft will likely be pick 41 and carry a slot value close to 1.2 mill.
  15. davell
    Hand injury for Torreyes? Did that get any pub? If so, I missed it somehow and makes me even more confident with him in AA.
  16. davell
    I'm for adding Bourn. But I see that there is value in the pick and what it allows hou to do. I'm not sure if trading DeJesus, and adding Crisp, while keeping the pick, isn't the best solution for us.
  17. davell
    Up the middle time. Alcantara, Torreyes, and Amaya, with Hernandez close behind.
  18. davell
    You've been acting like there's no value in that pick. Its not a total crapshoot and our guys appear to be upper echelon in drafting. Like I said, I'm FOR giving up the pick to get Bourn. But you're lumping everything outside the 1st(maybe even upper half of the 1st) as complete lotto. And its not the case. Especially when you add in the pick value and how it could lead to drafting a top 15-20 type value thats fallen for signability concerns, depending on how many picks after that you want to take 10k types with. Talent is going much more according to talent now, as basically all teams are spending their allotments too. There's plenty of ways to look at things obviously, you could even just look and rank the best 50 prospects to come out of a draft, regardless of round, to see how deep a draft is, to help evaluate the value of each subsequent pick after your 1st, I guess.
  19. davell
    I'm wrong about sticking inside top 10 in org thing for a while though. That said, I looked at 09, 10, and 11. Guys drafted between 30 and 45 over that time include Aaron Sanchez, Bryce Brentz, Syndergaard, Ranaudo and Taijuan Walker in 2011, Mahtook, Brian Goodwin, Henry Owens, Bradley Jr, Larry Green, Goeddel, Michael Fulmer, Trevor Story, and Andrew Chafin. 2009 had Brett Jackson, Matt Davidson, James Paxton, Tyler Skaggs, Garrett Richards, Tanner Scheppers, and Brad Boxberger. Pretty solid value.
  20. davell
    I'm worried about Texas. Atlanta as well, but on a one year deal if he went back there, to try again next offseason. Texas also needs to stay away from Lohse, if getting Olt in a Garza trade is possible.
  21. davell
    Yeah, I knew that. Worded it wrong. But most guys picked in yhe 30's have trade value a year later or it was a really, really bad pick.
  22. davell
    Kyle, I'm not able to look that up right now. Nor should examples be all that relevant honestly. Yes or no: Most guys drafted in the 30's stick inside their teams top 10 org rankings for a few years? The answer there is yes. Yes or no: Top 10 guys in a system are attractive trade bait? Again, the answer is yes.
  23. davell
    That said, I have no issue giving Bourn a 5/75ish type deal. Trade DeJesus to Atlanta, trade Garza in ST for Olt + and head into the season.
  24. davell
    Kyle, the point isn't that the second rounder is likely to be a world beater. That doesn't mean at all though, that it couldn't be a major piece in a trade at some point. Hell, within a year of being drafted, before the guy even shows off his warts. It's not nearly as simple as just looking at stats in the majors. The second rounder that fails can still be a very valuable asset, before he fails.
  25. davell
    Would anyone be happy with that type of return on Marmol? I say no.
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