i'm here to argue that from our vantage point Jason Heyward will be underpaid regardless of the contract he signs steamer projections (fangraphs median FA estimates) Jason Heyward: 4.7 WAR / 603 PA (8/184) Denard Span: 2.2 / 564 PA (3/36) Dexter Fowler: 1.7 / 596 PA (4/56) Austin Jackson: 1.4 / 582 PA (3/30) there's a glaring hole there in CF for the Cubs that'll need to be filled most likely through FA; i've asserted before that there's an inefficiency available to us with the smaller CF dimensions in Wrigley that has even allowed Fowler's poor range to register as a positive for the first time ever in a full season, and with Heyward's terrific lateral radius i fully view him as a CF option for us (but if somehow he unexpectedly flames out there, we know full well we can always shift him back to RF and trade the guy who was 6 wins worse this season, yet still has tons of trade value) looking through the obvious FA options, Span seems at least superficially like the best option, because of course the steamer projections aren't considering his hip problems- but, even taking the best-case scenario, optimistic view of his health he's 2.5 wins worse than Heyward most estimates i've seen, including some FO sources cited have put the value of a win in FA now at around $6-8m, so you're probably valuing a 2.5-win gap at about $18m, and on top of the $12m salary Span looks likely to earn, you can very reasonably argue for Heyward being worth $30m/per in that lens (valuing him relative to Fowler & Jackson puts him "worth" $35m/$33m annually, respectively) but also consider the significant added value of pulling him from St. Louis: Grichuk: 2.0 / 588 PA Holliday: 1.7 /503 PA Pham: 0.5 / 176 PA Moss: 1.0 / 459 PA Piscotty: 1.1 / 521 PA Justin Upton: 3.0 / 638 PA (6/120) losing Heyward leaves a 600 PA hole that they'd be able to fill internally most likely with a combination of Moss & Piscotty, which can reasonably be assessed as a 1.5 WAR standard for that spot; they can decide to opt for Upton instead, inefficiently paying out $13m/WAR for the upgrade but even still, upon putting pen to ink for a Heyward-Cubs contract, we at the very least gain upward of 4 wins on St. Louis relative to current roster construction; that should be a reason for us to covet him a little greater than the other presumed, rumored competitors like LAD, NYY, etc.