sneakypower

fantasy humblebrags?

[expletive] PITCHING it's hard to say without a full read on our budget - i have an optimistic view of the funds that should be available to management...but if we're penny-pinching, i say see where a package along the lines of Castro, PJ, McKinney gets you (Teheran/Ross/Ventura?) or even mess around with speculative upside arms that The Cutter Whisperer wants to endow with his wisdom (Erasmo Ramirez? Nate Karns? Andrew Cashner? i obviously have no relevant insight here) at suggested prices mentioned above, i also really like the value of Mike Leake, Brett Anderson, Hisashi Iwakuma, Doug Fister, Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill...if our budget allows for more than that, then great, gimme Jordan Zimmermann at 5/110 or w/e i should also note i'm not particularly desperate to expunge from the rotation Hammel & his 3.49 FIP as a Cub, but if we're believers in the persisting narrative he's due for a 2nd-half plunge, then bolster your team with next year's Hamels/Cueto/Kazmir at the deadline if that's deemed a necessity (Theo has said he expects organizational pitching depth on the farm to 'explode' this season so if there's truth to that you can imagine this would be easily achieved without really sacrificing much in the way of long-term franchise health)

i'm here to argue that from our vantage point Jason Heyward will be underpaid regardless of the contract he signs steamer projections (fangraphs median FA estimates) Jason Heyward: 4.7 WAR / 603 PA (8/184) Denard Span: 2.2 / 564 PA (3/36) Dexter Fowler: 1.7 / 596 PA (4/56) Austin Jackson: 1.4 / 582 PA (3/30) there's a glaring hole there in CF for the Cubs that'll need to be filled most likely through FA; i've asserted before that there's an inefficiency available to us with the smaller CF dimensions in Wrigley that has even allowed Fowler's poor range to register as a positive for the first time ever in a full season, and with Heyward's terrific lateral radius i fully view him as a CF option for us (but if somehow he unexpectedly flames out there, we know full well we can always shift him back to RF and trade the guy who was 6 wins worse this season, yet still has tons of trade value) looking through the obvious FA options, Span seems at least superficially like the best option, because of course the steamer projections aren't considering his hip problems- but, even taking the best-case scenario, optimistic view of his health he's 2.5 wins worse than Heyward most estimates i've seen, including some FO sources cited have put the value of a win in FA now at around $6-8m, so you're probably valuing a 2.5-win gap at about $18m, and on top of the $12m salary Span looks likely to earn, you can very reasonably argue for Heyward being worth $30m/per in that lens (valuing him relative to Fowler & Jackson puts him "worth" $35m/$33m annually, respectively) but also consider the significant added value of pulling him from St. Louis: Grichuk: 2.0 / 588 PA Holliday: 1.7 /503 PA Pham: 0.5 / 176 PA Moss: 1.0 / 459 PA Piscotty: 1.1 / 521 PA Justin Upton: 3.0 / 638 PA (6/120) losing Heyward leaves a 600 PA hole that they'd be able to fill internally most likely with a combination of Moss & Piscotty, which can reasonably be assessed as a 1.5 WAR standard for that spot; they can decide to opt for Upton instead, inefficiently paying out $13m/WAR for the upgrade but even still, upon putting pen to ink for a Heyward-Cubs contract, we at the very least gain upward of 4 wins on St. Louis relative to current roster construction; that should be a reason for us to covet him a little greater than the other presumed, rumored competitors like LAD, NYY, etc.

What if we call them the Gerrit Coles or Colby Rasmuses of the world, or the Adam Wainwrights or Carlos Quentins. Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Clay Buchholz come to mind do we have any idea where Schwarber would have slipped to if we hadn't taken him? it was widely seen as an overdraft at the time

it says "minors" so i was working off that assumption guys like Seager wouldn't qualify for those rankings

this isn't even a little bit true; if they scout Almora's second-half as his new normal then he's pretty near MLB-ready Happ is a 2B with minimal if any CF experience of note who had an OK showing at single-A Almora is only slightly more relevant because neither is very relevant to the decision making at this point at all. 5% vs 1% may be five times as much, but it's still paltry in the larger picture. where are you and david gaining this total insight as to how the front office views players in the system

this isn't even a little bit true; if they scout Almora's second-half as his new normal then he's pretty near MLB-ready Happ is a 2B with minimal if any CF experience of note who had an OK showing at single-A

oh pray tell, what are the odds on that

that seems like an oversight. Not that I don't think they should still be ranked high, but how aren't there more teams with better quality guys that can challenge for depth. It seems like they graduated all the elite guys and have shifted from a top heavy system to a depth system with minimal star quality. Nobody can beat that? well we might still have 3 top-50s still with Torres, Contreras, McKinney aggressive promotions have left the minors without real superstar talent outside the likes of Urias, Giolito, Moncada, Crawford?, Reyes, Glasnow so other teams having a real significant advantage at the top doesn't seem to be at play here if we're ignoring players who have made their debuts, then the Astros, Red Sox, Phillies, Rockies, Dodgers, Pirates seem right in the mix with us for top system but i don't know that there's much separation

i kind of expect it, but he still helps a lot with late inning substitutions for Soler, and solving LF vs tough LHP signing Heyward is still the only part that truly matters, for about a hundred reasons

i have an inherent trust for him sign Heyward, Leake, Cahill, Bourjos, maybe trade for Teheran/Ross/Ventura*, and call it a day; if Heyward signing budget leaves money too tight, then just pick up Hill *Castro, Pierce Johnson & McKinney?

Mularkey was the first choice for the Lions to replace Schwartz until he spurned them for TEN i'm starting to think Mayhew/ownership might not be very good at scouting coaches

i knew i recognized Jon Niese from somewhere http://images5.fanpop.com/image/polls/952000/952463_1329252348481_full.jpg

I believe in that he's one of the top FAs out there this season and the Cubs are covering all these bases for all types of offseason scenarios. For instance if there is a trade for a pitcher available and Soler has to be dealt, its an option that would give them a good hitter with very good defense in the OF. It doesn't mean he's a top option, just that he's an option. The language of how in the Cubs are "like Cubs expected to be in on" could be exaggerated by the agent though even then we still have 3 starter-caliber LFs on the roster and no CF, no RF and $100M less in available spending money i mean, you can move one of the LFs over to the detriment of defense, but that's not something i could see the FO doing unless out of desperation

i don't really believe this rumor at all probably just something his agent is spreading

how quickly we forget how much it sucked having a terrible bench all throughout the first half

Alfred Blue vs. TEN Ronnie Hillman vs. GB

I'm talking about the actual fielding part. He's never looked comfortable and you can't suggest he looks like god's gift to baseball when he can't field. He's had a couple short stretches of tremendous production at the plate, but he's always looked like a fielding liability. Alfonso Soriano 2.0 Soriano actually graded out well (at least some years) though That's because the grading system is a damn joke. I think Soriano is a decent comp for Soler. Soriano made so many route mistakes teams would routinely take extra bases on him. Occasionally he would throw someone out because he had a really strong arm. Dale Sveum made him stand with his back touching the wall that way no ball could get past him. 12 x

really curious about this like is this guy a mental monster

"Theo's Magic Wand" would be a good name switch for b2b

You keep throwing this out there like it's some kind of key rebuttal. It's not plus for the old GM when the new GM has to clean up their mess. If you read the post carefully, it's not a rebuttal about cleaning up the mess. It's a rebuttal to the notion that "cupboard was bare" mentality that was being passed around in these discussions. Well it wasn't literally empty, but there wasn't all that much either. He left the team in a pretty [expletive] spot, and saying that there was a non-zero number of assets left isn't the positive statement you seem to think it is. Hendry was pretty bad man. There was Baez, Castro, and enough to trade for Rizzo, Russell, Wood, Grimm, Ramirez, Hendricks, Villanueva, Torreyes, and Black. Theo deserves the credit for having a plan and trading players that didn't fit in his plan, but apparently those players were valuable enough to acquire the players listed above. all those wonderful players mentioned here that he left over combined to be barely replacement level this year (0.5 fwar) what we ought to thank Hendry for was depleting the organization of talent so deeply and completely that it forced us to pick at the top of the draft for a few years

probably, but he's on the CJ Wilson / Carlos Martinez eventual trajectory if that's in the plans

Kris Bryant: http://i.imgur.com/TQ2OP5i.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/d6E2bfH.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/eBGtLkQ.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/lrdKWyu.png our weakness is that most if not all hitters are frustratingly streaky, and one bad weak in october makes people think you're a bad person; Daniel Murphy btw had a month+ stretch of .210/.259/.340 baseball.

More to the point, guys like Schwarber usually get moved away from Catcher to get their bat in the lineup at a less demanding position. Why not just fast forward to the part where he plays LF and hopefully out hits his mistakes? As long as he drives in 2-3 runs a game to balance out the 1-2 runs he gives up on defense. i'm going to come out and make the bold declaration i don't think Schwarber will be a -24 win defender as you're describing...