Tracer Bullet

True. At the time I found it odd that so few here were dead set against the Soriano signing, and odd that even fewer were in favor of a rebuilding year. These still seem like sensible positions to me, would've expected more support for them. I was begrudginly accepting of the Soriano deal, mostly because they were so desperate for an extra bat and it appeared quite obvious they were raising payroll. I would also add that I'm confident Wilken will turn up a couple good young cheap bats in the next couple years, so when Soriano is really a waste, it'll be offset by those guys. And I'm still not in favor of a complete rebuilding. First, I think it'll be impossible. This isn't a team with 37 year olds like Kevin Tapani leading the way. The core of the club is still late 20's to early 30's. And I think this team could be in for a quick turn around with a solid GM. I agree - no complete rebuilding. But we should accept that we're not a WS contender and play for next year.

I guess I wasn't trying to argue that walking with a guy on 2nd would effect RBI%; I was pointing out that it's wouldn't improve the RBI%, but it's a good result ignored by that stat. It's such a terribly small sample size during the season and again, I frankly don't care how many of the guys on base a particular hitter drives in. Other than a few exceptions (runner on 3rd, less than 2 out in the 9th of a tie or 1-run game) I just want the hitter to get on base. And even in those exceptional cases, it's better to take a walk than swing at a bad pitch just to put it in play and end up popping our or something. As you said in your disclaimer, there's a big sample size problem here. And I hope we're not going to draw any conclusions (I'm not saying you are, but I mean people in general, and specifically Lou) as to whether or not Murton should be hitting 2nd based on the 15 ABs you reference in your quote.

Phew, good thing the Cubs are getting Murton and his 8 RBI out of the lineup. Because RBI is a stat that only considers what the individual player has done. I don't know if benching Murton is the answer, but this is not good. 04/02 - 05/30 BDI LOB RBI% Murton 7 36 0.163 I'm sorry, but I absolutely hate this stat. I know Murton's not hitting any better with RISP than he is otherwise, but knowing the Cubs, many of those runners were on 1st when he come up. All of which is beside the point. I don't care if he drives guys in. I want him to get a hit or a walk and get on base. If he comes up with a guy on 2nd and walks, that's not a "bad" outcome. But he doesn't get the RBI either. As I posted in another thread, except for RBI, he and Floyd's stats heading into yesterday's game were basically identical. But Murton sucks b/c he has few RBI? Sure - glad you're here Lou.

something stupid yeah look out, now he's on pace for the mid-teens... No kidding...4 HR/178 ABs doesn't deserve a "pwning." you're talking to a guy who supports his argument for floyd with video of one of his two homeruns. so four kinda seems like a lot to him. Yeah, at some point, you gotta take that down, right? Aren't Murton and Floyd putting up essentially equal stats this year. Other than RBI, their stats are oddly similar. And Floyd has had many more RBI chances - 60 ABs with guys on 33 w/ RISP v. 38 and 20 for Murton - though Floyd is hitting really well in those situations (very small sample size).

I'd start with Hill, then Sheets, and see where it goes. I'd try to offer one of those 2 and maybe another player that you don't really need, rather than parting with Hamels, Dice K, or Halladay.

Izturis and a minor leaguer for a SS prospect with power and defense? Are there a bunch of teams with a SS prospect that has power and defense just sitting around with nothing to do? B/c unless we suddenly acquired Homer Bailey and that's the minor league pitcher you're thinking of including in the deal, I don't think Izturis & one of our prospects is going to net a real SS prospect with power and defense. Oh and it makes absolutely no sense to platoon Murton at this point in his career. He hasn't shown a complete inability to hit RHP. If we're bringing up Pie and putting a prospect at SS and just letting them both play, we're not contending for a WS (or even a playoff spot). So there's no reason to give Floyd most of the ABs. Floyd's hitting pretty well and his OBP is still good, but he's shown almost no power this season and he's not a part of the future of this team. There's no reason to keep giving him ABs over a young player who could be a cheap source of production for a few years.

I was never a big fan of Abreu, but I wanted Drew pretty bad. And Drew's power is nowhere to be found, but his OBP is still 100 points higher than his AVG (and that .350 OBP would be an improvement for our OF); Abreu's OBP is not good, but it's also 80 or so points higher than his AVG - these guys haven't lost their plate discipline, which is something our team sorely lacks. But Abreu and Drew also went from the NL to the ALE, which is a huge difference in terms of talent. Abreu got the short end of the stick b/c some of the worst pitchers in the ALE are on his team. But they're facing much better talent than Jones is. So to think Drew or Abreu wouldn't be much better facing the Cards, Pirates, Reds, etc than pitchers in the AL isn't really fair. They might be just as bad on the Cubs as they are in the ALE, but the difference in talent in the leagues is fairly widely accepted, so I think that's a variable you're overlooking. I'd love to trade for Drew (Abreu's a year and a half older, so I'm less interested in him). If he could play CF at all, that .391 career OBP would be a thing of beauty on this team. incidentally, I challenge the notion that Abreu has had to face tougher pitching than Jacque this year. the Cubs have had bad luck avoiding teams best starting pitching, the Yankees have had tremendous luck. admittedly, Boston has had bad luck. Pitchers JJ has more than 3 ABs against: Arroyo (7), Harang (5), Lohse (6), Sheets (4), Vargas (4), Lieber (4), Snell (5), Wainwright (4). There's 1 really good pitcher, a couple having good years, and some real crap there. Abreu: Dice K (6), Schilling (7), Tavarez (4), Wakefield (4), Contreras (4), Garland (4), Escobar (4), Ponson (4), Batista (5), O'Flaherty (5), Washburn (7), Kazmir (6), Tejeda (6), Mike Wood (5). There's some junk there too, but Dice K, Schilling, Garland, Kazmir? Even Washburn has a 3.22 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Once you get past Sheets and Snell, it starts to fall apart for the "JJ's faced tougher pitching" side, doesn't it? The 3 AB cutoff was pretty random, but I'm not going to list every pitcher they've faced this year. But wouldn't you rather face the guys in the first list? I would.

I was never a big fan of Abreu, but I wanted Drew pretty bad. And Drew's power is nowhere to be found, but his OBP is still 100 points higher than his AVG (and that .350 OBP would be an improvement for our OF); Abreu's OBP is not good, but it's also 80 or so points higher than his AVG - these guys haven't lost their plate discipline, which is something our team sorely lacks. But Abreu and Drew also went from the NL to the ALE, which is a huge difference in terms of talent. Abreu got the short end of the stick b/c some of the worst pitchers in the ALE are on his team. But they're facing much better talent than Jones is. So to think Drew or Abreu wouldn't be much better facing the Cards, Pirates, Reds, etc than pitchers in the AL isn't really fair. They might be just as bad on the Cubs as they are in the ALE, but the difference in talent in the leagues is fairly widely accepted, so I think that's a variable you're overlooking. I'd love to trade for Drew (Abreu's a year and a half older, so I'm less interested in him). If he could play CF at all, that .391 career OBP would be a thing of beauty on this team. another conflation of the argument. if you are going to compare the pitching talent one faces, you must remain consistent. neither player was in the NL central, yet those are the teams you use to excuse these players poor performances. Abreu got a break, then what explains Drew? Abreu got a break, but the pitching in the NL East last year was a helluva lot better than the AL East pitching this year. and btw, 13-15M a year for a slightly better than league average OBP (if that) and little more is a terrible idea, which gets back to my original point, we'd be more screwed had the Cubs acquired some of the love children that were pined for on this board. I like how you trash everyone's arguments by throwing around words like "conflation", then use absolutely terrible logic to support your on arguments (pitching in the NL East is worse this year than last year...please), and then wrap it all up with a completely unsupportable statement that we'd be "more screwed", whatever the hell that is. All while calling a mod "disingenuous" for no particular reason. You win the 1st Annual Dingleberry Award for Alienating Everyone and Pissing Them Off. the other poster posited that the 2007 AL East is harder to hit in than the 2006 NL East. I argued it's not. it was an accurate statement. I believe having a $13-15M/year player would be a larger strain on the Cubs organization than a $5M, slightly less productive player . how that is unsupportable...no wait, completely unsupportable...is beyond me. what award do you win for your failure to read, failure to comprehend, ignorance of what logic is, and blatant attack topped off with sucking up to a mod? The other poster posited no such thing. You misread the other poster's argument. The argument is that Jones (facing the Cards, Pirates, Astros, etc) is facing easier pitching than Abreu and Drew (in the ALE). I never referenced the NLE.

I was never a big fan of Abreu, but I wanted Drew pretty bad. And Drew's power is nowhere to be found, but his OBP is still 100 points higher than his AVG (and that .350 OBP would be an improvement for our OF); Abreu's OBP is not good, but it's also 80 or so points higher than his AVG - these guys haven't lost their plate discipline, which is something our team sorely lacks. But Abreu and Drew also went from the NL to the ALE, which is a huge difference in terms of talent. Abreu got the short end of the stick b/c some of the worst pitchers in the ALE are on his team. But they're facing much better talent than Jones is. So to think Drew or Abreu wouldn't be much better facing the Cards, Pirates, Reds, etc than pitchers in the AL isn't really fair. They might be just as bad on the Cubs as they are in the ALE, but the difference in talent in the leagues is fairly widely accepted, so I think that's a variable you're overlooking. I'd love to trade for Drew (Abreu's a year and a half older, so I'm less interested in him). If he could play CF at all, that .391 career OBP would be a thing of beauty on this team. another conflation of the argument. if you are going to compare the pitching talent one faces, you must remain consistent. neither player was in the NL central, yet those are the teams you use to excuse these players poor performances. Abreu got a break, then what explains Drew? Abreu got a break, but the pitching in the NL East last year was a helluva lot better than the AL East pitching this year. and btw, 13-15M a year for a slightly better than league average OBP (if that) and little more is a terrible idea, which gets back to my original point, we'd be more screwed had the Cubs acquired some of the love children that were pined for on this board. How am I not remaining consistent? My argument was that if Drew or Abreu were Cubs, their stats would not be as bad as they are this year, at least in part b/c they would be facing the pitching in the NLC rather than the ALE. It doesn't matter what division they were in last year, it's based on who they would face this year if the Cubs had signed them. Your argument based on what we'd be getting for 13-15M simply ignores the fact that the NL pitching is worse than the AL pitching, especially the NLC v the ALE. Would Drew have a .360 OBP if he were facing the NLC this year? Possibly, but I think highly doubtful. I don't think you can just assume he would have performed the same if the Cubs had signed him.

Even if true, that's a bit harsh, isn't it? I've never heard Barrett speak and thought to myself, "he's a total moron."

Wait, what's the reason? Lengthen the productive years of his career for one. I understand that reason. But you said "this is another reason" and I don't know what you were referring to. What does Blanco becoming Z's personal catcher have to do with Barrett changing positions? If he can play 2B or RF then we don't necessarily have to lose his bat in the lineup on days when Blanco is behind the plate. That is, until they convert him full-time. I still don't really see the connection. Blanco's been backing him up for a couple years, I don't understand why Blanco becoming a personal C for Z changes anything for Barrett, but that's not really important. Barrett's a fine offensive C, and I suppose he'd be considered a fine offensive 2B, but I wouldn't try to convert him to a corner OF. A - we already have 4, why do we need another? B - he's not so good offensively that we just have to get his bat in the lineup somewhere. He's past his prime and spent several years catching. So I don't know why he's suddenly become a patient .370-ish OBP guy. He might have a few more .800+ OPS seasons in him, especially if he moves, but we have decent (or great) pieces at all the positions he could move to (LF, RF, 1B, 2B, 3B = Soriano, Murton, Lee, Theriot, ARam). Unless he can play SS or CF, I don't see the need. I don't think he'll be any more valuable to the team over the next 3 or so years than any of those guys. Theriot and Murton get on base at a better rate, if nothing else, and the other guys are just better all around hitters than Barrett. As long as Barrett can put up an .800-ish OPS behind the plate, great. When he can't, hopefully we'll have a good young C ready to step in, and we can thank Barrett for his service.

Wait, what's the reason? Lengthen the productive years of his career for one. I understand that reason. But you said "this is another reason" and I don't know what you were referring to. What does Blanco becoming Z's personal catcher have to do with Barrett changing positions?

Wait, what's the reason?

A corner OF with a .360-ish OBP, but hasn't shown a lot of power. Where have I seen one of those lying around... Oh, there's one here at the end of our bench, but he's a red-head so chances are he won't score many runs. Better trade for another OF.

You need a new league. actually this league is generally quite knowledgable, but there are one or two people who are impatient. I don't think it's terrible that Lowell was a FA; his numbers were nothing special last year. I'm not saying Lowell should have been drafted, but if 10 people didn't realize he was 1 of the best 3B in the league after a month and on a team that's going to be one of the league leaders in runs scored (thus lots of chances to score runs and drive them in), it's a bad league. Of course, as soon as someone dropped Berkman, you knew that, right?

I'm fairly confident he'd be good enough. It's hard to say if he'd move. But ARod moved to 3B, and he was inline to being the greatest SS of all time. Chipper moved to the outfield, and then back to third. Guys move positions pretty frequently. If the Cubs traded for him, I don't think he'd sit out, or grumble. And if they offered him a market friendly contract, I'd bet he'd be willing to stay as a corner OF instead for forcing himself to another team where he could play 1B. ARod moved to 3rd b/c Jeter's a moron and ARod thought it would help him win a WS. Chipper moved to the OF b/c he's been a Brave his whole life and thought it would help the team. Unless Teixeira is a huge Cubs fan and always wanted to play for us or is under the mistaken belief that the Cubs are 1 Mark Teixeira away from a WS, I'd be surprised if he came here knowing he'd have to move to the OF. Why wouldn't he go somewhere that would allow him to play his natural position and be on a good team? It's the rare player that signs with a crappy team with the understanding that he'll have to change positions.

I hate to say it, but I beginning to think Theriot might suck. He only appears to be a slightly better hitter then Iz, and he has no range. I would keep Iz at SS and at the 8 spot everyday, and then figure out who the super sub is between Dero and Ryan. In each of his last 3 seasons in the minors, his OBP was .367, .365, .367. So he's got that going for him, which is a heck of a lot more than Izturis can say.

That was the initial offer, and he counter-offered with this. How badly does this guy need a 1B? Can you toss in another player you won't miss w/ Gonzalez?

I'd say no. I might trade Gonzalez for Z.

if hancock wasn't drunk and the tow truck driver/driver was negligent, would you be ok with suing them? Perhaps, but I see no negligence in this circumstance. well, if a guy on the internet who read a couple articles about it doesn't see any negligence then why even have a trial? im sure abuck12345 is an experienced lawyer on the other hand, right? since you want to be a dick about it, i graduated from law school two weeks ago. LOL In other words...you have no experience at all. The funny part about this exchange is that nothing abuck has said in the quoted language above requires any knowledge or experience in law. He put forth a hypo and then questioned another poster's credibility to speak on whether the tow truck driver was negligent. And btw - I second the congrats and good luck, abuck. The bar is a waste of time.

Howard also has hit a HR in about 36% of his major league flyballs... I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Upton won't be able to do that. I'm also guessing that Upton may have a hard time sustaining his .451 BABIP. I'm not arguing that Upton = Howard. I'm arguing that a lot of strike outs don't necessarily mean much. The BABIP argument is a strong one that I do not debate. The strikeouts do mean something. If you are striking out that much, you have less opportunities to find a hole when you do make contact. Ryan Howard and other power hitters can get away with it by a lot of homeruns. Another way to get around it is to get on base alot via the base on balls. I'm too lazy to look up his stats but I dont recall him walking a lot. He has 18 in 150 ABs and an OBP about 80 points higher than his AVG. He walks. Edited to add: Upton has also started in the OF for a few games in a row. His real value is as a 2B, but many fantasy owners love versatility.

Lets see here Piniella has won 1511 games (18th All Time) and has twice been named Manager of the Year. He also won a World Series. One season he won 116 games with one team and he won 200 games for an awful organization in Florida in 3 years. Dusty has won 1162 games as a manager (38th All Time) and been named Manager of the Year 3 times in 14 seasons. He is one of only 4 NL Managers to have 8 consecutive winning seasons EVER. He also won 1100 ballgames faster than such board icons as Jim Leyland and Mike Hargrove. Um, lets see 18+ years service in an industry and being recognized for excellence in that industry. Gee what employer wouldnt want that. Do you realize how stupid this remark is? Also plays to the fact that the players realize these arent a couple of guys they pulled off a turnip truck somewhere and that they should immediately respect them. They have been around the block a time or two and have been involved in the game for at least 3 decades. Only thing ridiculous here is your assessment that Piniella and Baker are bad managers. They simply arent. I don't care to go through and put in responses to each quote. But I take it from your response to my ASG question that you do want Barry Bonds to manage this team when he retires b/c he's recognized as excellent in his industry. You still didn't address the fact that going to a lot of ASGs does not mean that you're excellent at baseball. It's voted on by fans, some of which are young kids that vote for their favorite players, some of which are intelligent, some of which are ignorant, some of which are complete morons. The ASG is a popularity contest. Has nothing to do with excellence at baseball and certainly shouldn't have any relevance in deciding who would be a good manager. Let's accept that all of their wins over their long careers are totally attributable to them and not the teams/circumstances they were in. I don't, but fine. Even assuming that, that doesn't mean they're good now. Baseball is a heck of a lot different now that it was when these guys started managing. And Lou hasn't managed in the NL in some time, which is a much different game than the AL. They both make unnecessary moves, put bad OBP guys at the top of the lineup b/c they're fast or they look like leadoff hitters (or they play SS or CF, traditional leadoff hitter positions), mismanage the pitching staff. The game has passed them by. There is a lot of information out there that good managers can use to put their players in the best position to succeed. Has Hendry given Dusty or Lou Murderer's Row? Far from it. But Dusty and Lou have taken a mediocre/bad team and made it worse. Are they responsible for more of the losses than Hendry? Not likely. But that doesn't mean they get a free pass for sucking at their jobs.

I doubt it-because then the Cubs could have pinch-hit Floyd or Ward for Marshall after Theriot hit. They would have kept Wells in, hope he got Theriot out, and then the Cubs wouldn't have really had a good option for a pinch hitter for Marshall. they wouldn't have had any MI options left -- I doubt they look at DeRosa to play SS I think CCP was saying Floyd or Ward would PH for Marshall, not PH for Theriot.

His first argument for Drew being overrated is his lack of ASG appearances? Really? That's the worst you can say for him - he's not popular? You mean to tell me that fans didn't warm up to the guy that was widely attacked in the media for wanting out of Philly? Really? You don't say. His career .391 OBP and .500+ SLG is great. And his career OPS+ of 131 looks pretty good too. Sometimes Jayson Stark writes stupid things. This is one of them.

As I have said over quite a few posts in the past, it's easy to sit back and critcize Hendry, but the GM's job is much harder than we want to admit. As you stated, people wanted Drew and/or Abreu and they're not doing much. The argument over Giles still amazes me that people don't realize that Giles was not going to leave San Diego. When people complain about the team being good on paper, that's all a GM can do because the players have to perform on the field. The power numbers for Lee and Soriano are totally unexpected, but I'm sure some critics would say that Hendry is to blame for not forseeing this. Hendry has made plenty of mistakes, but non-performance by players that are expected to perform can't be blamed on him. Wait, what? Lack of power from DLee was unforseeable? The guy missed most of last season with a wrist injury. I think a lack of power was a distinct possibility. And Soriano isn't going to match the 46 HR he had in his career year (also, his walk year), but he could still hit 30-35 with 1 or 2 big months. But he's the leadoff hitter. Signing a 31-year-old with a .325 career OBP to an 8 year contract to be your leadoff hitter is just dumb. His OBP has come up dramatically in May and I hope it continues, but to expect a guy with a career .325 OBP to repeat his career year (and throw that much money at him on that hope) is not good team building. What this team needed was a high-OBP lead off hitter and a good 3/4/5 hitter with power. What they got was a low-OBP lead off hitter who has had lots of power (not a real big help when the guys in front of him are Izturis and a P). And a 32-year-old formerly good 3/4/5 hitter that's had injury concerns and is in steep decline (a guys he's been chasing his whole career and signed not b/c he was the best fit for the ball club). Logic tells me that a guy with a history of injuries for most of his career is going to decline faster than a guy that's been healthy most of his career. I'm sure there are exceptions, but to expect a return to 2003 (or even '05) from Floyd was dumb on Hendry's part. He just doesn't construct a good team. He had guys that have shown (in the minors or majors) to have real potential and be cheap alternatives (Theriot, Murton). But instead of using those guys, he blocks them with expensive and bad veterans (DeRosa and to some extent Izturis for Theriot and Floyd/Soriano/Jones for Murton). I realize the hope for Soriano was that he could handle CF, but he's a 2B with 1 year of OF experience (in LF) - it takes more than athletic ability to handle CF. So instead of using our cheap sources of good production (Theriot's MiLB OBP's the last 3 years have been .367, .365, .367 - sounds like a leadoff hitter to me; Murton's .365 career OBP would look nice right behind him), we go get a corner OF with a low OBP and block Murton and the leadoff spot. Then we add another corner OF on the downside of his career (that requires a platoon) for no reason. Then we add a 2B/super-sub coming off a career year and block Theriot (after we had already added a no-hit SS last year). Murton and Theriot are not superstars. But using guys like this allows you to use your $ for things you can't get from your system on the cheap (like a power hitter, a better SS or 2B, and a CF). The GM position is not easy and there are more failures than successes. But I, and others, won't accept that as an excuse for a guy that's had a long time and, especially recently, a lot of money, to put together a good team but may have done more harm than good.