Tracer Bullet

You do recall correctly. now it makes sense. I wondered where you posted 1800 times without me remembering ever having seen you.

I already have Premium..... For those who already have premium, I'll offer a randomly selected autographed Cubs baseball card. Why do I have a feeling they will all be Doug Dascenzo cards...

Who cares about his D at this point. He's a 40 HR and .900 OPS machine. And a horrible hitter, to boot. The guy walks over 100 times a season, and still can't muster an OBP higher than .400 You have to suck something fierce as a hitter to put up 100+ walks a year and not have an OBP over .400. Adam Dunn just so happens to suck something fierce. We don't need his HR's. Go ahead and look up all the hitters who walk 100+ times a year. All the hitters who don't have an OBP higher than .400 typically have onme thing in common: low batting averages. Call me crazy, but I like seeing a little bit of small ball every now and then. Drive the runner in with and opposite field base hit, lay down a sac bunt, etc. We don't need power hitters. We have three power hitters (granted Lee's struggling), and our power hitters can hit for average. Dunn is a waste of time. If we're looking at a RF we need to look or one that can play defense and put up an average of at least .280 and an OBP of at least .350. I'd rather have someone who can put up solid numbers in both categories than be an extreme in one and the anti-extreme in the other. And Dunn's OPS last year was .855, and has only topped .900 twice in his 4 full years in the majors (3 times if you count his 244AB rookie year). For someone who hits 40+ bombs a year, that sucks You're crazy (hey, he asked me to). I'm in awe of just how bad this post is. Even ignoring Dunn for a moment, you'd prefer a guy who can bunt to a guy that hits 40 HRs a year? Really? I'm not misunderstanding you? I want to be sure, b/c that is crazy. Since the Cubs apparently refuse to put Murton in LF and benefit from his inexpensive production, let's put Dunn out there and benefit from the career .380 OBP and .890 OPS. I honestly don't care if we trade for Dunn or not. We're not winning anything this year, so he doesn't help us much short term (more Ws, sure, but enough to make the playoffs? I don't know). And I'm not sure we're going to pay him what it would take to sign him for a few years. I'd have loved to have had him 2/3 years ago, but now it looks like Soriano and Pie have 2 OF spots locked up for a while and if we're not going to move Soriano to RF when we don't have a decent option there, I can't see us moving him there to acquire another multi-million dollar player.

I remember him. I was just telling a buddy how lucky the Cubs were in that trade. We got a few uninjured games from Nomar and a young kid with a lot of promise that we've promptly turned into a bench/platoon player. Solid.

TT gets the edge for his name, if nothing else. Sorry carniby.

Usually NPR or iPod, but when I'm driving to work, it's usually Marketplace or Morning Edition.

After he wins his 5th Cy Young, Sean's going to come to your house and slap you in the face.

The right thing is to try to maximize your run scoring potential and gain victories over the opposition. I believe scoring more runs achieves this and I think the Cubs would score more runs with Soriano batting 5th than with JJ hitting there. (JJ should be on the bench or gone anyway but that's another thread.) Even if that means Soriano losing out on PAs? In the NL, a player batting 5th would have 60-70 less PAs in a given year than a player batting 1st. Yes and for the same reason that no team has their best hitter leading off (not that Soriano is our best hitter, but he's certainly hitting like it right now). You don't want your best hitter coming up on the heels of your 2 worst hitters (8th and P here). Same reason so many people were upset with Dusty for putting Corey, Neifi, etc in front of Lee in 05. You don't put a .500+ SLG guy right behind the worst hitters on your team. It's stupid. How many leadoff hitters in the history of the game were among the league-leaders in HRs and SLG. Soriano was in the top 5 and top 10, respectively last year. If he produces like that, you don't want to waste that power by hitting him after Izturis and the pitcher. With ARam out, Soriano should hit 4th (just like he hit 3rd w/ Lee out). Even with ARam back, I'd hit Soriano 4th, but 5th would still be better than 1st. Let him hit with guys on base, as long as he can keep up this .900 OPS stuff. Many would argue, and with sound backup, that the bolded statement is wrong. One study took a look at the 2000 Blue Jays, which featured a lineup that had similar characteristics to the Cubs lineup, and had Shannon Stewart and his .319/.363/.518 line batting first. According to this study's results, batting your players in descending order of OBP or OPS looks to be the best option. I would imagine looking at an NL lineup that had a pitcher batting ninth would produce similar results, although to a lesser degree. I could fully support a lineup that put guys in order of descending OBP (though if you have 2 very similar OBPs, logic tells me the higher SLG goes second, but the kids at Harvard might be able to convince me otherwise). But Soriano will not finish the year leading the Cubs in OBP. If he repeats last year, hopefully he's no higher than 4th or 5th...and by golly, where would that put him in the lineup...

They're 5-2 in the past week, and playing better than they've played in a long time. Soriano/ Pie are both thriving right where they are. But by all means let's screw with it just so people won't think we're stupid for batting a 40 homer guy at leadoff. No thank you. Can we at least wait until we lose a few games in a row first? Just in case ? No. Decisions should not be made based on the last 2 (or even 7) games. Is that really what you're suggesting here?

Given how far (and quickly) Theriot has fallen, I'd hit him 7th or 8th and let Murton lead off. He's shown the ability to get on base at a .350-.360 clip, which is solid. All those concerned with his lack of power should have those concerns eased b/c he'd be hitting 1st, where power is less important. And Murton should be starting every day in RF anyway. Actually, I'd start Murton every day in LF and put Soriano in RF, but that's a discussion for a different day. No telling what effect a move to RF and out of the top spot would have on our $136m egg-shelled-psyche star. BTW - how does Soriano not wanting to move to the OF last year, then putting up career best #s, fit with your suggestion that his performance hinges on comfort? If his comfort dictated his offensive output, would he really have started last season with a .921 OPS in April and .977 in May?

The right thing is to try to maximize your run scoring potential and gain victories over the opposition. I believe scoring more runs achieves this and I think the Cubs would score more runs with Soriano batting 5th than with JJ hitting there. (JJ should be on the bench or gone anyway but that's another thread.) Even if that means Soriano losing out on PAs? In the NL, a player batting 5th would have 60-70 less PAs in a given year than a player batting 1st. Yes and for the same reason that no team has their best hitter leading off (not that Soriano is our best hitter, but he's certainly hitting like it right now). You don't want your best hitter coming up on the heels of your 2 worst hitters (8th and P here). Same reason so many people were upset with Dusty for putting Corey, Neifi, etc in front of Lee in 05. You don't put a .500+ SLG guy right behind the worst hitters on your team. It's stupid. How many leadoff hitters in the history of the game were among the league-leaders in HRs and SLG. Soriano was in the top 5 and top 10, respectively last year. If he produces like that, you don't want to waste that power by hitting him after Izturis and the pitcher. With ARam out, Soriano should hit 4th (just like he hit 3rd w/ Lee out). Even with ARam back, I'd hit Soriano 4th, but 5th would still be better than 1st. Let him hit with guys on base, as long as he can keep up this .900 OPS stuff.

LOL he has how many at bats outside of the leadoff spot this year?20-30 maybe? That has to be the most irrelevant argument Ive seen in awile. He has 29 AB's outside of the leadoff spot. If you take anything from those stats, then that says it all right there. Yeah it's a small sample size, but it's better than looking at his numbers from five years ago. Let me ask you this... how many at bats out of the lead off slot would you like to see this year before you make a decision? I dont have an exact number, but I know its a lot more than 29 AB's. I mean if we take anything from 29 AB's then Chris Shelton was the best hitter in baseball last year. Let me ask you this...With the way Soriano is hitting right now, do you honestly think if we put him down at 3-5 hes going to stop hitting? We're not just looking at 29 at bats this year. This isn't the first time that Soriano has been better leading off. This isn't that hard to understand. And to answer your question... yes. Well, he won't completely stop hitting. But I'd bet money that he would drop off. He's a very sensitive player, we've seen that last year with Washington, and this year playing center vs. playing left. So now we're buying that playing LF instead of CF is also partially responsible for his surge? And this is the same sensitive player that threw a fit when the Nationals wanted to put him in the OF (didn't he sit our or nearly sit out some ST games over the move?), then went on to have his career season while playing LF? Sounds to me like it's not so much sensitivity as it is fiction.

LOL he has how many at bats outside of the leadoff spot this year?20-30 maybe? That has to be the most irrelevant argument Ive seen in awile. He has 29 AB's outside of the leadoff spot. If you take anything from those stats, then that says it all right there. Yeah it's a small sample size, but it's better than looking at his numbers from five years ago. Let me ask you this... how many at bats out of the lead off slot would you like to see this year before you make a decision? all of them

Good thing he's leading off. Wouldn't want to waste any of those HRs by having guys on in front of him. By putting Izturis and the P right in front of him, we've virtually guaranteed that 90% of the HRs he hits will be solo shots. Well done, Cubs. Well done. Better solo HR than no HR at all. And better 2- or 3-run HR than solo. Soriano probably doesn't get those fat pitches with runners on base. Amazing that a guy hits three home runs and people still aren't happy. I'm not expecting everyone to start doing cartwheels and changing their first name to Alfonso, but geez... take a break from wetting on the charcoals for an evening, would ya? Where in my post did I say anything negative about Soriano? I was suggesting that the Cubs are making a mistake by hitting him in leadoff. If you don't agree, fine. If you want to post some sort of argument or evidence, I'd welcome that. But don't take shots at me just b/c we disagree about something. That's lame. I don't know, maybe the same arguments that have been rehashed ever since we signed him? The stats saying how much better he does batting leadoff than down in the order? Not trying to be a smartarse, but I think everyone knows by now that his middle of the order numbers career wise pale in comparison to his leadoff numbers. Did you skip the middle of this thread or just ignore Jon's posts? I think those numbers make clear...well, absolutely nothing. But they certainly don't prove Soriano is destined to hit better in the top spot. BTW-I only highlighted that last part b/c it's such a perfect example of the myth. "Everyone knows" b/c everyone's looked at his numbers last year (his career & walk year) and saw how well he did leading off. And everyone saw how bad he was in Texas, so it must be his position in the order! Until you look at the #s Jon posted and realize...the stats don't really prove anything here. But as long as people keep saying "everyone knows" than everyone will just go on thinking they know something.

Good thing he's leading off. Wouldn't want to waste any of those HRs by having guys on in front of him. By putting Izturis and the P right in front of him, we've virtually guaranteed that 90% of the HRs he hits will be solo shots. Well done, Cubs. Well done. Better solo HR than no HR at all. And better 2- or 3-run HR than solo. Soriano probably doesn't get those fat pitches with runners on base. Amazing that a guy hits three home runs and people still aren't happy. I'm not expecting everyone to start doing cartwheels and changing their first name to Alfonso, but geez... take a break from wetting on the charcoals for an evening, would ya? Where in my post did I say anything negative about Soriano? I was suggesting that the Cubs are making a mistake by hitting him in leadoff. If you don't agree, fine. If you want to post some sort of argument or evidence, I'd welcome that. But don't take shots at me just b/c we disagree about something. That's lame.

Good thing he's leading off. Wouldn't want to waste any of those HRs by having guys on in front of him. By putting Izturis and the P right in front of him, we've virtually guaranteed that 90% of the HRs he hits will be solo shots. Well done, Cubs. Well done. Yes, because only the Cubs have realized that Soriano hits best out of the leadoff spot. Those stupid, stupid Cubs. I'm sorry, but I don't believe that where he hits in the lineup makes a damn bit of difference. Of course he wants to lead off, he loves to swing the bat. He gets more chance to do so if he hits first. But would he suddenly be terrible hitting 3rd or 5th? I don't believe it. And frankly, there's no stats that "prove" in any real sense, that his spot in the lineup effects his performance. He had a great year last year hitting 1st. Would he have had the same production in his walk year hitting 3rd or 5th? I think so. It amazes me how many people say "he hits better in the leadoff spot" as if his position in the lineup determined the results of his ABs more than all the other factors at play. Yeah, agree completely. What a waste of run potential. 3 homers and 3 RBI and most people around here think that is great. Turns out the Cubs offense added in 6 other runs. It would not have been nearly as much fun if the Cubs had lost 4-3 which isn't all that unlikely. Exactly. I'm not hating on Soriano, he's a fine player. If he matches last year, I'll be thrilled (if he does it for even half of his current contract I'd be shocked). But it's a waste to hit him in the leadoff spot regardless of what he says or thinks. Jon did the leg work I didn't have time to do last night (and presented it better than I could). There's just no evidence to suggest he hits better leading off. It's a myth that too many smart people (here and other places) buy into. Just amazes me that people so willingly accept that there's a causation relationship when there's nothing to support that.

Good thing he's leading off. Wouldn't want to waste any of those HRs by having guys on in front of him. By putting Izturis and the P right in front of him, we've virtually guaranteed that 90% of the HRs he hits will be solo shots. Well done, Cubs. Well done. Better solo HR than no HR at all. And better 2- or 3-run HR than solo.

Good thing he's leading off. Wouldn't want to waste any of those HRs by having guys on in front of him. By putting Izturis and the P right in front of him, we've virtually guaranteed that 90% of the HRs he hits will be solo shots. Well done, Cubs. Well done. Yes, because only the Cubs have realized that Soriano hits best out of the leadoff spot. Those stupid, stupid Cubs. I'm sorry, but I don't believe that where he hits in the lineup makes a damn bit of difference. Of course he wants to lead off, he loves to swing the bat. He gets more chance to do so if he hits first. But would he suddenly be terrible hitting 3rd or 5th? I don't believe it. And frankly, there's no stats that "prove" in any real sense, that his spot in the lineup effects his performance. He had a great year last year hitting 1st. Would he have had the same production in his walk year hitting 3rd or 5th? I think so. It amazes me how many people say "he hits better in the leadoff spot" as if his position in the lineup determined the results of his ABs more than all the other factors at play.

Good thing he's leading off. Wouldn't want to waste any of those HRs by having guys on in front of him. By putting Izturis and the P right in front of him, we've virtually guaranteed that 90% of the HRs he hits will be solo shots. Well done, Cubs. Well done.

Probably not, because if he would have made the play, Stewart never bats and it's a perfect game. ? That's the point. If Lugo makes the play, sure, he'd love for Schilling to have a perfect game. But since he had already made the error, he's got to be thinking (to himself) "don't let my error be the only thing keeping from Schilling from getting a perfect game." So when Stewart gets a hit to break up the no hitter, it also let Lugo off the hook for his error.

Lugo (whose error in the 5th ruined the perfect game) is probably very happy that Stewart got the single.

I'm confused. You don't have to watch it. I don't know what Derwood is thinking, but I just don't like having to wait between picks.

Yeah, I can't see this catching on. There can't be that many people that want to watch these people babble on and on.

So it's a popularity contest? Who do you like better X v. X? Or can we make it "which poster is more valuable" so that we can have that debate again and again.

Depends. Will Tim know who votes against him?