craig

Thanks, kyle. Very interesting data. I agree with you, it supports the concerns about Baez's K-rates.

Jokisch's results have been better than his reported stuff would suggest. He had pretty good K-rate at Daytona, and his ERA last year in AA was 2.9, although his K's were down. My recall is that he had a lot of excellent games, and a few clunkers. But my recall was also that I didn't think his profile was consistent; one game K's, then not; next game all groundouts; next game rather few. I'm kinda guessing he's a 4-pitch guy, and between fastball/cutter/change/curve, he goes with whichever seem best on a given day. I wonder if Jokisch isn't a guy who doesn't have anything special, but has a consistency to not throw many mistakes?

Thanks, interesting. I could imagine he could go either extreme on BABIP. Bat speed and all that, when he guesses right and actually hits the ball, you'd think he could be above average. Conversely, as a big-leg-kick guy I could see him being routinely off balance. As a guy who K's all the time because he can't actually make any contact, I could imagine a lot of the swings when he does make contact being weak contact. As a guess hitter when he guesses wrong I could again imagine being way off balance with weak contact. Hopefully he can work it all out. And perhaps being such an auto-out now might end up being better than doing like Jackson and waiting till he's 24 to even try to change things. So perhaps this is exactly the kind of haplessness that will prompt him to make changes that could help him.

Last year Silva was 92K/5HR, but still hit .296. This year he's 4K/3HR (at least according to milb.com). Was Baez a low BABIP guy last year too? Wouldn't be surprising if that's a chronic issue. One guy who isn't having any BABIP problems is Dr. Bruno. I think he's 19-for-39 on balls in play, with 5 walks. I think he was a really high BABIP guy at Boise as well. .435 BABIP there.

A quick move up to Iowa, followed by success including one or both of newfound power or plate discipline. I just need one of those and he doesn't need to move up that quickly. He is repeating AA but is age appropriate. ..What I'd like to see/find out about Ha - a) Well, let's start with the easiest thing - how good is that defense in CF? ... b) Can his discipline show something close to what it did in the 2nd half? So far, it isn't at the same level, but obviously it's too early. c) What kind of power can he show?... d) Can he be consistent offensively, .... Fringe prospects often have a hot week at some point during a season. If it's during April, when there aren't many other numbers to average, the stats catch the eye. But even with the hot month, he's shown no power and has K'd plenty (8K/0HR). So probably nothing really important happening here. But I think this is the kind of burst that can get him onto the "possible starter" landscape, in the "anti-awful" area. When looking for starters, I'm usually looking for asset guys. But DeJesus and Sappelt aren't long-term answers; Almora is years away at best; and Jackson is a long-shot off to a very poor start. So if Ha could emerge as a .275BA/.330 OBP guy with 5 HR's and .400 slugging, that might qualify for "could be starter" anti-awful role. Agree with each of your Q's, toonster. a) Is he a good CFer? Or is he more in the DeJesus/Sappelt or even Hairston class? c) I don't think the power question is that big; because I think it's a given that he'll not hit with power. Obviously there is still the issue of how awful/anti-awful it will be, though. Last year he slugged .385; year before .413. So I suppose one could go optimistic and wish for a .400-slugger with 5-9 HR's? b) Since he won't hit for power or many HR's, his offense needs IsoD. He was a very low-walk guy in A, but last year he took quite a few walks, and thus far 5 walks/38 AB is fine again. We'll see how that holds up. When he went from A-ball hacker to AA-walk-taker, that came at the typically big price in K's, power, and average. It will be interesting to see how he balances the value and the profits of taking walks this season. It sometimes takes a guy a while to find his equilibrium. d) Agree that the consistency is a question. Every hitter has his hot and cold periods, but often they improve some at reducing the length of the slumps, and extending the hot streaks. Hopefully we'll see some of that this year for Ha. Obviously his last week he's been on fire, and his season BABIP is around .500, so whatever he's got going now will flame out soon.

A quick move up to Iowa, followed by success including one or both of newfound power or plate discipline. I just need one of those and he doesn't need to move up that quickly. He is repeating AA but is age appropriate. ..What I'd like to see/find out about Ha - a) Well, let's start with the easiest thing - how good is that defense in CF? ... b) Can his discipline show something close to what it did in the 2nd half? So far, it isn't at the same level, but obviously it's too early. c) What kind of power can he show?... d) Can he be consistent offensively, .... Fringe prospects often have a hot week at some point during a season. If it's during April, when there aren't many other numbers to average, the stats catch the eye. But even with the hot month, he's shown no power and has K'd plenty (8K/0HR). So probably nothing really important happening here. But I think this is the kind of burst that can get him onto the "possible starter" landscape, in the "anti-awful" area. DeJesus and Sappelt aren't long-term answers; Almora is years away at best; and Jackson is a long-shot off to a very poor start. So if Ha could emerge as a .275BA/.330 OBP guy with 5 HR's and .400 slugging, that might qualify for "could be starter" anti-awful role. Agree with each of your Q's, toonster. a) Is he a good CFer? Or is he more in the DeJesus/Sappelt or even Hairston class? c) I don't think the power question is that big; because I think it's a given that he'll not hit with power. Obviously there is still the issue of how low it will be, though. Awful, or at least somewhat anti-awful? Last year he slugged .385; year before .413. So I suppose one could go optimistic and wish for a .400-slugger with 5-9 HR's? b) Since he won't hit for power or many HR's, his offense needs IsoD. He was a very low-walk guy in A, but last year he took quite a few walks, and 5 walks/38 AB is fine so far. We'll see. When he went from A-ball hacker to AA-walk-taker, that came at the typical price in K's, power, and average. It sometimes takes a guy a while to find his equilibrium; it will be interesting to see how he balances the profits versus the costs of taking walks this season. d) Agree that the consistency is a question. Every hitter has hot and cold periods, but often good ones learn to reduce the length of the slumps, and extending the hot streaks. Hopefully we'll see some of that this year for Ha. Obviously his last week he's been on fire, and his season BABIP is around .500, so whatever he's got going now will flame out soon. e) I'd add the contact/K question. 96K's in AA is a red flag for contact, and 96K/6HR is hard on BA and OBP. When over 20% of AB's are K-outs, it takes a whole lot of BABIP to maintain a good BA and OBP, especially without HR's. Less than 80% of his AB's were balls in play last year, and he was batting .058 on the 102 AB's that resulted in K's or HR's. (For example, If you bat .058 on 20% of your AB, you need to BABIP over .360 on the other 80% if you want to hit .300 overall....) The K-problem is both an obvious statistical concern, but it's also a scouting red-flag. K's typically go up with level, especially at the AAA and even more so big-league level. So a 20+% whiffer in AA is certainly at risk, especially without projecting a bunch of HR's to lift the BA, OBP, and OPS. To some degree I think a lot of the questions for Ha are similar to what would apply for Szczur. Is the defense anything to help him, or not? How awful will the power be? Can he sustain enough OBP to be anti-awful offensively? Is his K-rate going to kill his average and OBP, in the absence of any compensating HR power? I wonder if either of these guys will still look interesting when the season is done?

Yes and no. I don't think he's from Wichita, I think he's from a smaller community. He was the QB on his HS football team, the typical "best athlete in a small high school" guy who's the best at baseball and football, and probably basketball besides. As a football guy, his summer schedule was impacted by football practice. So in Kansas, spring maybe doesn't come that soon, and by July football practice is probably starting. His college scholarship was definitely for baseball, and he knew baseball was his after-high school sport. Too small for football.

http://www.thecubreporter.com/04132013/giants-sweep-cubs-fitch-park#more Loosen pitched 3 innings, good news. Conway had three clean innings, 40-some pitches. Rosario also pitched again, got into the 2nd inning. Baez 4 hits, no or little hitting from anybody else (Soler, Dunston, Golden, etc.) Oops, is that the wrong day and this was reported a day or two ago in a different thread? O well.

Baez now has a 3-game hitting streak, the first time he's had so long a streak since getting promoted to Daytona. He's up to .190 average and .239 OBP. He hasn't been able to go over .250OBP at either Daytona last year or in AFL last fall. So it wold be cool if he could sustain something and get over .200 BA/.250 OBP.

What's the story on him? He was terrible at Daytona, 42H/13BB/10K, totally hittable and no K-stuff at all. And then very bad at Peoria also. Did it turn out there was some injury thing associated to rationalize the poor year?

This will be a key year for Watkins. The stats show progress; if he continues the progress this season, it's one thing. But the 3-year progression is largely perceived from the improvement last year. And that was largely built on a half-season of really good numbers. (There was little hint of progress early last year.) So he may be on a steady improvement track. But it could also be that he's been fairly flat and unimpressive, and that an unsustainable 2-month burst is skewing the graphs. If he can show the progress he showed last summer is sustainable and he continues to improve, that will be really fun. So far so good. The growth of some power last summer was huge for him, I think. He'd been kind of a Theriot, but adding some HR's added a bunch of numbers. Nice to be able to "use the whole field", including to the wall so that outfielders need to play him honest; and to "use the whole field" including the bleachers. 12 K's already is pretty tough, though. Not many low-power guys can sustain a .150-IsoD for long, and with 12K/33AB early, that's going to need to change. He's currently hitting .242, and not many .242-BA PCLers who can walk their way to good big-league careers. He'll need to not only walk but also hit.

4 HR. 7K/0BB, so fine in two of the three K/BB/HR areas, but not in the most important one. He gave up 11 HR's in 99 innings last year. That wouldn't seem that bad in the majors, but is horrible relative to low-A where few hitters have any HR power. I think in the Midwest league, the HR norm is closer to 4 HR/100 IP than 11. So that's probably going to be an ongoing challenge and issue for him.

Cabrera gives up 4 runs in 6 innings as Tennessee loses. Alcantara plays 2B again, I noticed he was at 2nd yesterday also. Was yesterday his first day there, or has he been there earlier too? I like it, a lot. His chances are a lot better if he can evolve into an elite defensive 2B. His chances of beating out Castro and holding off Baez at SS are probably not great, so getting started on learning to play 2B sooner rather than later makes a lot of sense to me. Not a lot of guys who can make that SS-to-2B switch as effectively and quickly as Barney did. Villanueva entered the game with a .534 OPS, but he got a double today. Still looking for his first walk, so his OBP is pretty ugly so far.

Poor Brett isn't even close to Javy Baez (11K/26AB/1BB).

Daury torrez is on the "inactive" list. Might have been aggressive to skip Mesa and jump to Boise anyway. Even if his injury isn't major or surgery-level or anything, Boise is probably pretty remote now. I'll just hope he's healthy enough to pitch some at Mesa. Too bad. Thanks for link. McNeil hasn't seemed to generate a lot of buzz, at least from Phil or camp. So nice to see him have an effective game. Cubs were in full signability-mode by round 3, so McNeil was about $50K sub-slot, but even at subplot a high 3rd rounder should still have some real talent possibilities. Would be great if he emerges as a real prospect. In a previous report, Conway pitched again and struggled, got lifted mid-second inning because his pitch count was done, at 29 pitches. So if his count is 30-pitches, that's still a surprisingly fast comeback, but that's still a pretty controlled count. Rosario pitched two innings (25 pitces) in the same game as Conway. Torreyes is 0-7 in the two games Phil has reported.

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=2391&position=P&pitch=FA Looks mostly good after the first slow game. Nothing great, but nothing wrong.

Wrong thread, but I haven't seen any of Rondon's appearances yet. While he is in the majors, I still view him more as a "prospect", so I feel like this isn't a bad place to ask about him. How has he actually looked so far, for those of you who have seen him? Does he look reasonably promising? I think the board put him at like #26 or 27 on the prospect list, right? I was voting for him ahead of cats like Lake and Marco and Villanueva, so I admit I've been an optimist on him and probably drinking the Koolaid. But since I haven't seen any of his innings yet, real season or exhibition, I'd be curious to see what you guys think at this point?

So who is not making the plays? Raisin has been suggesting that Candelario is looking much better at 3B and is showing some good range. Toonster has been touting Marco as a serious big-league SS defensive talent. Amaya isn't Ryne Sandberg, but I've heard the Cubs like his defense. Are these guys much worse than we've been led to believe? Or are Vogelbach and the outfielders at fault? Or is it just coincidence, good fielders miss plays sometimes, especially when they're 19 or 20? IN any event, good to hear positive feedback on Johnson.

Not from today, but interesting that Mark Reed was still in relief for Daytona. He'd been mentioned as a possible breakout guy, and he's got a good arm, so I'd thought they might want to give him some innings. May not be a good sign for him.

I'm actually more interested with Dae-Eun Rhee (not saying I'd rank him over Loux ... or Lendy, just interest level is higher) than those two, but maybe that's me. They kept Rhee in the rotation, and I'm curious if his stuff is showing closer to what he had in 2011. Heh heh, says something about Loux when a guy like Rhee may be as or more interesting.

Nice pitching from Scott, Peralta, Cabrera, and Rosscup. Heh, and Searle too. This is Searle's 5th season at Daytona. Must be pretty exceptional for a player to repeat at the same A-ball season five straight years. He's still "only" 24, so it's still not impossible that he might pitch a major league inning someday. Seems like forever ago when his assignment to Daytona's rotation at age 19 was a big surprise and gave hope that he was a meaningful prospect.

Peralta showing both the appeal and the questions through 3: four K's and nothing out of the infield, but also two walks and HBP. Would be fun to see him do well.

Beeler picking right up. 6 hits and 3 HR in the first four innings.

Whitenack has apparently been claimed by Cleveland. Wow, big surprise. Funny, they grab our rehab Whitenack, we grabbed their rehab Rondon. Their advantage in that they can send him down, we can't do the same. Our advantage, of course, in that Rondon appears to have an excellent arm now, whereas at least as of this spring Whitenack does not.

Along with Jensen, Loosen, Burke, and Rosario, Whitenack is another guy who was held back. All five of those were guys I kinda had somewhere in my 25-40 area of my top-50. Toonster, I agree that Torreyes is probably slated for Tennessee after some time in Mesa. I'm sure they hope Baez earns a promotion sooner or later. But nothing imminent there. Performance dictates, of course, so decisions aren't made in March without knowing how he'll do. But I'd guess the hope is that Baez does well enough to merit a June or July move, without any anticipation that April or May promotion is likely. So I don't think his possible future but somewhat remote promotion has much/any impact on what's happening at Tenn. If he comes up in July, and Torreyes and Alcantara are already there, things will take care of themselves. One will be hurt; or one will be struggling badly enough that we don't care; or one can play 3B; or one can get bumped down a level, as happened with Marco last year. It won't be a problem. Or, if it is a problem, it will be a great problem because I'd love to have the "problem" of all three of Baez, Alcantara, and Torreyes having great seasons and looking way too good for Daytona!