craig

Thanks. Nice to know its done, and to get a dollar value on it. Hopefully he gets his visa issues sorted out so he can actually work on becoming a good pitcher soon. I wonder how much patience they'll have with a 25-year-old prospect. It sounds like he's a guy who could really use extensive coaching. The arm angle, the hook, the unreliable breaking ball(s), the control, these seem like a variety of issues that good pitching coach(es) might be able to help with, but will take time. But a guy who maybe needs a lot of coaching and tinkering wouldn't seem like a fast-tracker, more like a guy you'd like to have several summers and off-seasons to work with. Hopefully he's a quick study and takes well to coaching. I assume some of the scouting process is looking at what a guy is doing now, and projecting what he could be if you get your hands on him for a while. Hopefully the finished product will end up being reasonably useful.

Yes. Either take the average or the median of the votes submitted. Give a 41 to the outside of top-40 vote. I don't think that's a trolling, given how many votes are in the upper 30's.

I'm doing the same as toonster. I switched my vote from Contreras to Hendricks to try to resolve the Hendricks/Saunders competition.

Thanks. Having some chance at a 3rd pitch is somewhat encouraging. In any event, Cabrera seemed to me like a really good prospect at that age. The fact that he never got any better makes him look like a pejorative comparison now. But if Peralta is even close to as promising as Cabrera seemed then, that's pretty good. Prospects of that caliber don't all succeed, but some will. Maybe Starlin will be one who does. As to rotation, I think his chances are pretty remote there. If I could choose between having him as a good 7th inning reliever (guaranteed) versus gambling that he'd make it as an asset rotation starter (uncertain), I'd be happy to take the useful reliever and put it in the bank.

You may know more details, but on the face of it Peralta seems well behind cabrera. At the same age 21, Peralta was 3.44 at Peoria, with 86K/44BB/11HR/99IP. When Cabrera was the same age 21, he was 3.28 at Daytona, so was better at a higher level, but his splits were much better: 90K/26BB/6HR/93IP. Higher league, with slightly better K-rate and walk and HR rates barely half what Peralta had. Unfortunately Cabrera hasn't seemed to get much better since then. Hopefully, Peralta will. I'm interested in Peralta, for sure. If you can touch 97, that means you can probably work in the low 90's, that's good. He's sometimes had some strong GB-games; he's sometimes had low-walk games; he's had an occasional high-K game. Kind of the profile of a guy who can look very good on occasion; but he's lacked consistency. If he can pull the good stuff all together at the same time more consistently, you've got a chance for a good pitcher. I admit I'm a little cautious on expecting age-based improvement on fastball-command from Latin pitchers. If an American pitcher who'd played at a small college and gotten drafted was 22, I'd figure some coaching might tune up his fastball control. But when a guy is going into his 6th season as a full-time professional pitcher, my guess is coaches have maybe done as much with his fastball as coaching can do. If your fastball is wild after 5 pro years, will another year or two of coaching likely fix that? Slider and change, that's different, because they obviously limit that for teenage Latins. If you can control your fastball, in time there's a chance that you can figure out a good breaking ball. But if you can't control your fastball, I kinda worry. I'd certainly not put him ahead of a guy like Jensen, for example. But, hopefully Jensen, Peralta, and Cabrera will all end up working out much better than we can count on. The Cubs are certainly due to get some unexpected good luck.

toonster, Cabrera is exactly the guy I was thinking of. Big arm, but somehow the actual effectiveness hasn't added up to the velocity. But, who knows, hopefully he'll improve and get better than Cabrera has.

36. (Heh, with Rosario's injury, I'd bump him out of the top 45 altogether, but that's a different point...) Peralta has a serious arm, though, so I can see why you guys would vote him into the 20's. Seems kind of wild to me, though. But I'm going to put him right behind Scott, Arias, and McNeil.

I'd have him late 30's or early 40's, around in that bunch with Rosario, Austin Reed, Reggie Golden, Hatley, Dunston, guys like that who are far distant, who may have some talent but haven't had it help them be good in low-minors yet.

Cal, I want to vote for AJ Morris in the next vote. Low-walk/low-HR guys tend to work out well.

These are all interesting guys, I think. Contreras. 1. Limited number of guys with big-league defensive tools at catcher. 2. The Cubs have a vacuum at catcher. 3. Anti-awful factor. It's too easy to get way behind the league at catcher. A guy who might be good-defense-OK-offense might not be exciting, but might provide some anti-awful protection. 4. Contreras is 20, offense might improve. Power, K's, walks, none were good, but none terrible either. With all the attention given to converting to catcher, he may not have given the requisite focus on his hitting. So I'm hoping that there will be progress as a 20-year-old hitter. The flip side is that full-season pitching is WAY better than short-season. Mediocre offense at Boise, Contreras might get just buried in full-season. I don't see Saunders as ideally-suited to utility, because I think he's got a 2nd-base arm. 2nd-base arms either need to hit enough to start at 2B, or else they aren't that attractive as utility. Guys who can hit aren't easy to find, though, so if he can hit enough who knows. He looks pretty interesting as a hitter. Still, playing in low minors, he K'd a lot last year. Maybe just adjustment to pro ball, but might indicate some problems that will kill him at higher levels. I probably won't vote for him until we're well into the 50's. Huge year for Hendricks. The present assumption is no stuff, just a college polish handling A-ball hitters, but no potential, and that may be right. (I wonder if there are arm issues, past or present.) Despite the questions about his stuff, somehow he had enough for 123K/147IP. Not awesome, but above average, particularly given the 123K/18BB ratio. If he struggle he may be forgotten by June. But if he can translate his no-walk, low-WHIP profile up another level, he may earn a closer look. This won't sound exciting, but I could also imagine Hendricks perhaps ending up becoming a Shawn Camp type reliever. We assume relievers have to throw hard, but consistent strikes help get outs (and keep managers comfortable) in relief, too. A lot of games are lost in the 6th and 7th innings, so a guy who can throw consistent strikes can have a long career. Often managers keep the strike-throwing veterans with lesser arms over wilder, inconsistent guys.

Hendricks Jokisch Contreras. Hendricks, Jokisch, advanced limited-stuff-but-interesting-results guys. (Loosen, Kirk, and Rusin were also in mind). Rusin has a fair chance to make the team in April, and to pitch a fair bit for the Cubs this year. But being on the team and actually being desirable, that's different. Hopefully he will become good. Contreras because he's a catcher. Here we are at 45 and we're only thinking about getting a catcher on... The draft scouts must be looking hard at the catchers this spring.

http://www.thecubreporter.com/03122013/2013-cubs-minor-league-camp-rosters-312 AzPhil's roster report, from yesterday. He now includes down through the A-ball groups, and both pitchers and hitters. Many guys have moved down since last week (including Pierce Johnson down from Iowa group to Daytona). So many are within a level of where they'll end up. As always, the "limited/rehab/inactive" list is most interesting. It's little longer than the one last week. Noteworthy additions are of course Rosario, Maples, and actually the new Cuban, Armando Rivero. Phil's injury listing may not be very complete, of course. While it's great that Josh Conway is progressing well enough to participate in some of the camp drills, we certainly know he isn't close to healthy and isn't even remotely close to pitching in a real game. So perhaps there are others like that, too. Phil also mentions that he hasn't seen Paniagua or Torreyes. Visa problems, maybe? Who knows. *McKirihan, who Phil listed as "inactive" last week, is not listed that way now. *For you long-term Antigua fans, phil lists him as down with the Daytona group. *As expected Rosario is injured. LIMITED ACTIVITY/REHAB GROUP (10): Marcelo Carreno, P (TENNESSEE) * Hunter Cervenka, P (TENNESSEE Dayan Diaz, P (TENNESSEE) Chang-Yong Lim, P (IOWA) * Alberto Mineo, C (KANE COUNTY) Dillon Maples, P (KANE COUNTY) Armando Rivero, P (TENNESSEE) Jose Rosario, P (DAYTONA) Casey Weathers, P (IOWA) Brad Zapenas, INF (KANE COUNTY) INACTIVE (4): Carlos Escobar, C (ankle/foot injury) Marcos Mateo, P (TJS rehab) Amaury Paulino, P (TJS rehab)

Lake has a rib fracture, out for 4-6 weeks.

Fair chance that Vizcaino doesn't. He might come back well enough and fast enough so that he has too much big-league time. Or he might have enough health/arm/control problems that he isn't top-100 anymore.

Torres Jokisch and Hendricks Torres for the control and the projection. With well over 1000 prospects competing in the DSL last year, to be ranked as one of the 20th best suggests some nontrivial potential. Velocity in the 90's, a strong/projectible frame, and excellent control, that's a good start towards becoming a good pitcher. Jokisch and Hendricks for performance. Hendricks has shown great anti-walk control. 2.80 ERA and 1.0 WHIP two years into his career, maybe his stuff is better than we think? Will be interesting to see whether his success carries up to AA this summer; and whether with an off-season to work on any optimizations, whether the Cubs might be able to coach his stuff up a bit more. His velocity scouted faster in HS than more recently; any chance he might be a little stronger or healthier or faster than we expect? Maybe Johnson will be able to long-toss him into more arm strength. :) Jokisch was 2.91 at AA. There have been some reports that he often was working in the low 90's, and has both a good curve and change. Smart, with good control. His stuff might also be better than we think; maybe he too can grow into a little more power; maybe his consistency can get a little bit better; and suddenly you've got a useful guy. Not sure how he projects as a big-league reliever, but if he threw a little harder in relief, and maybe had some tough-on-lefties features, he might become useful.

If Az tries to send him down, any other team can grab him under the same 25-man roster constraints that presently apply. And if nobody does, he does NOT need to be on the Cubs 40 to reclaim him. So the only way a trade works is if he's cleared the rest of the league, at which point the Cubs will have no 40-man reason to trade him. A trade only makes sense from the Cubs side if they either really believe Arizona will pull Peralta back off waivers and keep him on the 25; or if it's just a straight trade: Cubs like X more than Peralta, but Arizona likes Peralta more than prospect X. There are a lot of weeks before April, so Peralta might turn it around for them, and they might have other guys who get hurt over the next weeks. But for the reasons Cubswin spelled out, I think the Cubs have pretty strong chance that Peralta will become available to us.

Have we heard much about Marra's defensive projection? I assume yes, and positive, for you to ranking him this high? I admit I don't recall much if any talk about his defense. Given that he had decent patience and hit well in rookie league, and given that he's a catcher in a system with almost none, I can see some interest. I voted Contreras instead, since I have heard about his defense and his manager compared him to Pudge Rodriguez. One prospect that isn't on the list but might merit consideration at this point might be AJ Morris. He was a 4th round draft pick, had good arm reports, and had pretty solid if unspectacular results prior to surgery. The Cubs supposedly liked him so well that they targetted him in the Gorzellany trade, even though they knew he'd had surgery and would miss a year. But this year his numbers were pretty sweet. 2.0 GO/AO ratio; 1 HR; 0.98 WHIP; 15BB/52 IP; 42K not great but not bad either. I wouldn't be surprised to see him fall off this year in high minors, but neither would I be at all surprised to see him sustain strong success, and look like a very legit big-league pitching prospect. Often when a guy goes relief, it's because he's failed in rotation for some reason. But Morris obviously it was "just" the surgery. He was a big-league prospect pre-surgery, so I don't hold his relief status against his chance of becoming a good major leaguer. (When guys have 42K/15BB/1HR, thats a combo that wins, if it's even remotely sustainable.) For TJ surgery these days, most guys seem to recover their velocity. It seems much more rare to recover the "touch" for command. Morris would seem to have done so; Rhee not so. Hard to guess how they'll roster fill, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Rhee get released this camp. Too bad, he seemed so promising pre-surg.

Good point that Paniagua may stay extended. I'm guessing that having had him in Dominican camp all winter, though, that they've probably already had opportunity to work on mechanics. So maybe they won't want to hold him back for more tweaking now. Rivera is more likely to stay in XST, I think. He's new, and according to Muskat still hasn't actually even been officially signed. And I think his delivery will need some work. So having not faced real hitters for a long time, I'd think XST might be a good landscape for four things: 1) see live hitters again, 2) get mechanics adjusted, 3) Cubs decide which pitches they want him to actually use this year, and 4) get Cubs-way/enculturated. But, perhaps given how long it's been since he's pitched, perhaps they'll figure it's best to just get him out facing hitters in real games, and just kind of see what he's got? Maybe do the tweaking and refocussing next fall? If he does pitch for a box-score team, I think you're right that Daytona would be the likely place, although Kane might also work. cal, good point on Peralta. If we get him back at all, it will be very late I'm sure. I'm thinking they'll still start him, though, just in a piggy-back pitch-control. So probably start with only one or two innings, like they do with rehab guys.

True enough, trans. I do think it will take more than becoming "a bit more discerning". That makes it sounds as if it will be almost trivial and highly probable. There are lots of talented bats outside of the Cubs failed development program who have also struggled to adapt to advanced pitching.

I'll guess Johnson, Jensen, Paniagua, Burke, and Peralta.

Hmm. Green doesn't read well at all, does it. O well.

Teddy, great effort. Good to promote thinking. I think your list is really good. I expect there will be a bunch of guys who get released. And a bunch disabled. One of the big keys is whether they want to just take it slow with the new guys, and keep them in XST. Or whether one or more from the Underwood/Maples/Blackburn crew will go to full-A. I doubt it,

I see it your way too, toonster. I don't think guys like Marra, Saunders, Carreno, Rusin would be likely to crack the top-30's of hardly any team, although like you I haven't analyzed a bunch. I assume every team has some guys who either look like they have some talent but haven't done much of anything yet or recently (guys like Castillo, Hatley, Martin, McNutt, Golden, Maples on our top-31 BA list....) or guys who have been variably productive but don't scout that well (Loux, and that would be the umbrella under which Saunders, Raley, Rusin, or a pre-injury Carreno might fall.)

The "intrigue" is limited for any guy who the signing team thinks profiles as a middle-reliever. That's equivalent to saying: "we think he's pretty limited as a prospect." A guy with a notably strong arm, even if he's wild, they'll say he profiles as a late reliever. A guy who either has good mechanics, good control, decent 2nd or 3rd pitches, or throws very hard, they'll say he profiles as a starter. I think "middle reliever" is basically saying: he doesn't throw that hard consistently enough to be a late reliever. And while he may "try" to throw a breaking ball and throw a splitter that is sometimes good, he's got no control of them, so he doesn't profile as a starter either. "Middle reliever" = "limited prospect". Probably. :)

I expect Johnson is a lock to start at Daytona. His good show in instrux and now in camp has him likely bumped past Kane. But he's only got 11 innings in short season, so Daytona will already be a pretty major skip. If he does great there, I could imagine Tennessee later, whether that be May or July. I don't imagine many rotation locks. Johnson and Jensen at Daytona. Kirk and Loosen at Tennessee. Paniagua, could be EXT, Kane, or Daytona. Wells, who knows if he'll be healthy enough. I assume Reed will start at Kane, but Daytona isn't impossible. Scott is obviously a lock. Underwood, Blackburn, Maples, who knows which if any might make it? Arias, we'll see if he's healthy enough to open the season. But so many guys, nothing would surprise me. Burke, Daytona rotation, Tennessee rotation, or move to relief? Concepcion, will he be EXST, or make a full season, and if so starting? Will this new Cuban start or relieve, and will he be advanced enough for stay at XST to work with him, or will he start right out at Kane or Daytona?