craig

I think guys who live on their fastballs and don't have very advanced secondary pitches can get that label, too. At this stage, we don't know that Torres is throwing much other than his fastball. Which might also fit with having few walks and wild pitches. Which would also fit with Tim's comment. If you're just throwing fastball strikes, without doing a lot of offspeed, and without really spotting the ball and moving it around, that might go as a "thrower". There are guys who just rely on their natural movement, or their inconsistent command, to move the ball around.

Thanks much, Bob. Not sure how many of the other four starters. But I think Edwards, Johnson, Black, Pineyro, and Wells are all interesting to varying degree. I'm curious what your observations are on the other four? I'll guess, and if you were willing I'd like to see how you'd modify/correct misconceptions? Black: 92-93 average, good fastball movement, good slider, mediocre change, mediocre control. Edwards: 91-93 average, pretty similar to Black? fastball movement also good; somehow more deceptive/explosive? Is he more curve or slider, or who knows? Whatever it is, it's more deceptive and obviously a much superior putaway K-pitch? Much better control of all his stuff? Velocity fades some after three innings? Johnson: Not quite as fast as Edwards/Black, but maybe average 90-92? Does he hold his velocity a little better? Pineyro: He's been good, but I have less guess on him. Touches 93, averages 89-91, with good control and movement? A pretty good slider? Or am I underestimating his arm strength? Wells: Averages 88-91, although maybe touches 93 on occasion? Pretty heavy 2-seam movement? Breaking ball so-so?

I know I feel a lot better about Blackburn now than I did before his final two playoff starts. The guy who over his last ten starts of the season had a 1.9 WHIP, with 27BB/18K/31 IP, coming off an arm injury, he wasn't in my top 20. The guy with 17K/1 BB/11 innings, or whatever exactly those numbers were, in his two playoff starts, he is in top 20.

I like the good Maples. Nice to have him end his season with an excellent game.

Really encouraging to see a good bounce-back game for him. 8K/0BB. It's been about two months since an outing with more K's than walks for him. Hopefully he'll be healthy and good next season.

Pierce Johnson has pitched only 3 innings in the last 16 days. Corey Black is younger than Johnson, and his last start was more recent than Johnson's. Johnson's at 118 innings on the year. I wonder if they've just shut him down for the summer? And if so, whether that was planned from the start, or his arm is tired.

Pierce Johnson was scheduled for tonight. So when I saw shutout through four I liked it. But, in fact he didn't start. I hope everything is OK with him. He's had a nice, consistent season. Hasn't had any of those 13K/0BB type "WOW" games. Hope he's healthy and finishes fine in the playoffs.

Very unexpected. I have no idea what to deduce from this, other than that Hoyer is getting a prospect they like. Give that we have basically Schierholz and who knows what in the outfield, DeJesus certainly seemed like a guy the might have kept. And he's been very positive leader-type, which the Cubs seem to value to some degree. So I'm assuming Washington is giving somebody McLeod thinks has a shot to be worthwhile. Of course, he thought that about Concepcion, too, so we'll see. But, if we can get some better-than-Pinyera A-ball pitcher, great. I can't imagine they are counting on Lake being good. My guess is they don't think they know what Lake will be; he could be pretty bad, but there's a chance he'll be pretty good. At this stage in a rebuild, why not give him an extended look and hope he's one who does work out well. Last, I don't think they really love DeJesus as a CF.

Vogelbach's ratio of hits/XBH is around 39.5%, Barney's (minor league) ratio is about 23.5%. Now, I'm not saying Vogelbach couldn't stand to be a bit higher, but his ratio is FAR closer to Baez than Barney. Yeah, Barney as a major-leaguer has really boosted his power. And Vogelbach was a lot more power-oriented in short-season last year. This year, Vogelbach is lower than Barney, and lots less than XB-oriented guys like Baez and Villanueva. Vogel has 130 hits, 22 doubles, 18 HR. 40/130 = 30.8% Barney this year: 28XBH/83 = 33.8% Baez: 66/129 = 51.2% Villanueva: 56/118 = 47.5% May just be a fluke/coincidence. But maybe there's something real, who knows. Much of the scouting has talked about what a "pure hitter" he is rather than an upper-cut slugger. It may be that he's got a level groundball/line-drive stroke, and doesn't have a lot of lift in his stroke. Many of the game reports have talked about his HR's being rocket line-drives, rather than soaring high flies. And having many of his balls-in-play being hard-hit balls, without lift. Not sure how adjustable/teachable "lift" is. But he'll probably eventually need to lift his HR-output.

Vogelbach has been heavily a singles hitter. When he gets hits, a disproportionate amount of them are singles. Much higher singles/hit ratio than Darwin Barney, for example.

Agree. Keep Baez in the middle. Baez/Castro/Alcantara are the pool to cover two positions. Whether Baez moves to 2B, or Castro, I don't care. I'd prefer Baez to stay at SS, if they believe in him there. Casto at 2b would be easier to replace, if at some point you decided to trade and replace. But if you move Baez to 3B, and need to cover both SS and 2B with only Baez/AA/Barney, I think you're at risk of having disappointing production there, or at least of not necessarily gaining much ground relative to the league at those positions. SS/2B: Castro/Baez/AA/Barney is the pool. 3B: Valbuena/Olt/Vitters/Villanueva/Bryant is the pool. That all assumes, of course, that management believes in Baez as a middle-infielder defensively.

He was up to 93 last year in the DSL too. This year, he's been working 90-92; topped out at 94 in one of his starts. Thanks, cal. That's pretty encouraging. Every RHP can throw that hard or harder, but lots need to back off some to throw strikes. With 15 walks in 153 pro innings, we know he's not overthrowing. His K-rate has improved quite a bit this year. (Last year 50K/75IP; this year 40/39.) For that to happen while taking the major step from DSL to American minors suggests that he's probably improved and has some kind of breaking ball that's working for him. My sense is that the cubs are pretty strict about limiting how hard guys throw. Perhaps for some combo of health/mechanics/control reasons. May be that some guys like this will be "allowed" to throw harder later, if they can still control it and maintain their mechanics.

I've not been much of a Villanueva guy, given all the K's. But he's played most of the year at age 21, and his OPS is now probably over .790. I think he's now near the league's top-10 for OPS, and near the top for slugging (for guys who weren't good enough to get promoted mid-season and thus fall short of AB requirements to get listed in the league stats.) He's been 21 for most of the year. Most guys who hang in the .770-.805 OPS range throughout their minor-league careers don't end up being asset big-leaguers. So I don't expect CV will either. But, the fact that he's been able to sustain his OPS each year despite promotion suggests that he's been improving as fast as the leagues have. He's shown significant progress during this season, and having just turned 22, he's young enough to justify at least the hope (not the expectation) that he might have enough improvement left to make it as capable big-leaguer. He may have already reached his ceiling, of course; but with most of next season still at 22, he may have some improvement still left.

Q: What's the scouting on Rosscup? Standard 88-92 velo, kinda wild, but good curveball? I don't really know. The limited usage and modest promotion rate suggests that management may not be real high on him. His numbers are sure interesting, though. I think a good 7th/8th inning reliever is very valuable, and every team is going to carry and use lefty reliever(s), whether very good or not. If Rosscup can be a good lefty, I'd value that a lot. Beliveau is having a good season. 2.36 ERA, 71K/1HR/42IP. Not sure why the Cubs wasted him so quickly. I'd rate Rosscup > Cabrera. Cabrera is sometimes fast, but he's never been that good, and he's been a HR guy. Low HR's for Rosscup helps him, and I think guys who give up lots of HR's in minors, often give up lots more in majors. In the limited CF group, which includes Szczur, Ha, and Andreoli, I wonder whether Zeke DeVoss might merit some consideration in that group as well. He's a year younger than Szczur, and his .405 OBP is higher than Szczur has ever scored. DeVoss's .779 OPS is a little shy of the .804 that Szczur had at Daytona last year at the same age; when Szczur was up to .804 last year, I was pretty interested, much more than I am now. I'm not a DeVoss guy, but it may be that Szczur will fall below DeVoss.

Have we gotten any scouting on what Maples is throwing at Boise? At draft he was generally scouted as a late-1st or 2nd round talent, and the Cubs obviously paid him as a solid 1st rounder. The projection was for power fastball in time, although I don't think he was amazingly fast then; and for the possibility of a drop-dead curveball. At Boise, he's knocked the walks off, but his K's and hits-allowed are decent but not special, and he hasn't really been showing any WOW 10K/5IP type games. Back at Kane, I think there were a couple of reports; obviously many that he was super wild, but one in which he was low-90's, another that he was high 80's touching 90-91. But nothing incredible. While his walks have vanished, he's still usually having several "wildness" outcomes per game (WP, HBP....), three yesterday. I have no idea what's happening. Maybe they've told him to pretty much throw nothing but fastballs, work on getting a fastball you can throw for strikes this year, and we'll work the curve back in this winter? He wasn't controlling that at Kane, so still a huge step. Maybe he's been told to take a couple mph off, and can control it at 90, but if he tries to amp it to 92-94 he goes wild? Or maybe he's been nicely consistent, but the WP/HBP are occasional relapse pitches, or if he tries to throw a curve? Who knows. I guess I'm wondering if after all the injuries and tweaks, and since he was a projection guy in the first place, whether he actually has ever added velocity, or has the velocity more typical for a 6th rounder than a 1st rounder. And whether his curveball is anything to get excited about anymore. High ceiling? Or just a guy with chance at back-of-rotation stuff?

Heh, when I sometimes read arguments that you're involved in, Kyle, I usually agree with your side, whether I post or not. This is one of the exceptions. Rivero was a very good arm, those guys attract offers, even if they are inconsistent or wild or have crummy mechanics. Teams figure they've got a shot to fix them, and if so there will be payoff. Not sure how sustainable Rivero's recent run is, but might be a nice example. Concepcion was a scouting sign, in a weird way he may remind me a little of Blackburn. Blackburn didn't throw real hard in high school, but showed some hints and had a build where projecting more was possible; he showed more in some spring showcases, and drafted in the first round. He didn't throw very hard last summer or in Mesa, but he flashed a couple of very fast games early in Boise, now I'm guessing he's back to not throwing very hard. But for a young projectable pitcher, even a few glimpses of excellent velocity is enough to stimulate strong interest. I think that's kind of how it was for Concepcion. He hadn't thrown very hard in Cuban league, but he was young and projectable. he hasn't thrown very hard in US since signing. But in between Cuban league and his minor league disaster, the Cubs saw him at a showcase, or I'm guessing perhaps it was at a private workout, throwing 94-95 four or five innings into the workout. Had he done that much/ever before or since, or had any consistency, no. But they saw a young pitcher with a good, projectable pitcher's body, showing at least a flash of a good big-league fastball, and thought he had a chance. If he could get his mechanics more consistent, or grow and strengthen a bit, perhaps that kind of heat could become fairly routine for him, and you'd have a good-ceiling LHP. None of that "flash" has been seen since. And perhaps when a guy is resting and psyching for a workout/showcase for weeks, rather than grinding every 5th day, it's a lot easier to throw kinda fast. But the Cubs saw a flash, and that prompted the investment. In Torreyes's case, perhaps if he was 16 again teams would see potential. An extraordinary anti-K gift, maybe he'll grow 4 inches and 30 pounds, or maybe he'll become good defensively with practice. But now that he's 20, I don't think so. Concepcion could flash a couple of 95's in a showcase and get scouts interested; I don't think Torreyes is going to show up at 6'0" at any showcases. Right now I think scouts pretty much know what he's got in the toolbox, and without any chance for power, speed, or excellent defense, I don't think a one-tool contact hitter would generate a lot of interest.

Alzolay's been really, really good. Lists at only 6'0", though, so not a lot of RH 6-foot power pitchers. No info other than the stats and that he wasn't a notable dollar signing. No problem with Cabrera move. He'd pitched 130-140 innings each 2 and 3 years ago, so not sure how much innings concerns factored. Probably just an effort to find some role where he might make it. I'd thought there was the chance that maybe he'd really explode this season and dominate AA, but that didn't happen. He wasn't especially impressive, and certainly hadn't justified much claim to be a big-league starter. 3.20 ERA for a 24-year-old 8-year vet in AA is nothing special. Lots of HR's as has been his career norm, unexceptional WHIP, a 2.6 K/BB isn't "wow". He's got a chance to make it as a 7th inning type guy.

We are basically paying Soriano a lot less to play for the Yankees than we'd be paying him to play for us. We open LF for other younger and more long-term interesting guys, whether Lake or somebody we pick up this winter. And we're getting a good-armed prospect. Good armed prospect, a bunch of free millions, and some opportunity to improve in LF this winter. Win-win-win.

Wow. Wow wow wow wow. Seems so totally un-cublike to do something radical and kind of outside the normal boundaries. $1.6 to Tseng, but $3.2 expense for Cubs. They obviously like him. Heh, that's maybe half of what we sold Soriano for. Soriano for Black, Tseng, and a PTBNL? (If we sold Soriano for $6+, maybe the other $3 can be used to buy another $1.5 international prospect?) With Tseng and Jiminez, there is no way to stay within penalty, correct? I think that ship has sailed. But, I think reaching an agreement and getting it finalized with the mlb office may differ. There may still be time to add INT slots, and reduce the dollar cost.

Do you guys know what's become of Blackburn?

That would be great value. I don't like Olt at all, so if they could replace him, whether with a position guy or a 3rd pitcher, I'd like it even better. But the third guy is a throwaway. The first two would be outstanding value for 2 months of rental. If they get both Edwards and Jackson, I'll consider that a wonderful deal. Way better than I would have dreamed we could get for Garza six weeks ago.

ABTY clarified this. "Incredibly" probably doesn't belong in there, it's misleading. By his account, the bids are in from a number of teams, and the Cubs was competitive enough to be the highest bid. Given the competition, having the highest bid definitely means it was strong. But, by his account apparently a group of bids are all pretty close. So while the Cubs must be in the mix, they aren't sure to get him. So it doesn't sound like the Cubs bid is "incredibly strong" in that they are blowing the others away. Rather, sounds like it's strong and the highest, but may be close enough that Gonzalez might prefer a warm-weather city or a contending team or something like that. He's got to choose, it's not like with the Japanese where the highest bid wins.

I'd guess he'll play in 2-3 Mesa games before going to Boise.

OK, maybe that was a little unfair to Penalver. Who knows what a kid can become later on, we can imagine or project pretty much anything we want to dream, I guess. But all scouting reports have agreed: not even the most optimistic envisions any power for him. He's got 24K in 107 AB, so while he has and projects no power, for now he's K'ing like a slugger, while slugging like a Pierre/Barney. He's carrying a .518 OPS this summer, and hitting .196. He's only 19, so it's possible, but he's got a long ways to go to blossom into a Barney-type offensive guy. Lots harder to be a .600+ OPS in the majors than a .518 OPS in short-season.

If only Pugs was lefty, he'd probably seem more interesting. As a righty, not so much. If the NL adopts the DH, maybe Penalver could become a prospect? Let Wood and Samardzija bat, and DH for Penalver? He's young, so I suppose anything is possible. But it looks like he'll need to improve a lot offensively to blossom into a Paul Bako or Steve Lake type bat. Probably ridiculously unrealistic to think that he could blossom into a Barney-type offensively. The note on Dunston going opposite all the time is interesting, and seems to fit. I've heard that he has or projects some power, perhaps more than his father. But he hasn't shown much. Thanks for Masek notes. Sometimes it's hard to know what to think with some of these college arms. I'm not sure how built up some of them are after their summer vacations.