craig

All 12 of Alcantara's HR's have been LH, and hitting LH he's got a .912 OPS with .538 slugging. That is really good. RH he's hitting .228 with a .298 OBP and .318 slugging. So I think some platoon future should almost be expected, if he's going to become a starter rather than a utility player. The game tends to have quite a few RH-hitting middle infielders, so finding a platoon 2B who does well versus the occasional LH starter shouldn't be that hard. If Alcantara can become a good 120-start platoon 2B, partnered with a 40-start RH guy, that looks very reasonable to me. Alcantara has had his challenges defensively at SS. So I think getting him over primarily to 2B as soon as possible makes a lot of sense. Barney has been a terrific defender, but he's so limited offensively that we should be looking towards a replacement ASAP. Barney himself might be a good partner. he's been a .700+ OPS guy versus LHP. A guy like that who'd be OK as the minor platoon guy, and then available as a natural defender backing up SS would be a good roster fit. SS to 2B may be one of the easier switches, but the footwork on the DP for example is not easy. If Alcantara got moved over last week, and spends all of this season, all winter/camp, and all of next summer working at 2B, then by late next season he might be ready to play big-league defensive 2B. By next August, perhaps he could be ready for a serious call up as a platoon starter. I think it's a good plan. And hope that between Castro and Baez, one of them might be able to play an adequate SS long-term.

I don't see much of a decrease in K-rate. Or at most a very modest, incremental one. He's still striking out every day and striking out about 1/4 of his AB's. The progress in BB's, yes, that I think is real. And to do that without the K's going up a bunch, maybe that's pretty good. But I don't see much substantial reduction in his K-rate. Might be interesting to see how the AA thing goes. Perhaps pitchers won't be quite as scared and will throw him more strikes, so perhaps he'll get more HR-pitches and fewer walks. So maybe it will be nicer for him. Or maybe better pitching with better breaking stuff will have him as challenged as he was last summer at Daytona, who knows. Should be interesting to track. On Alcantara, I think he'll play 2nd. In his last 5 games, he's had four at 2B and one at DH, so I think maybe the switch to 2B has perhaps already happened. Which I think makes good sense. I think AA has a chance to become a very good defensive 2B, and a good player as a 2B. I think it's also easier to set up a platoon at 2B than SS, so if AA ends up making it as the primary LH half of a platoon, that could end up working.

I also found that really unexpected. The only way that can make sense is if they wanted Guerrier. Guerrier was a really effective relief workhorse for many years in the AL, so I wonder if Theo kind of developed a respect for him and he still has hopes for Guerrier to be or to become again a safe strike-throwing reliever. Perhaps the Cubs scouts think he's coming back, or can be effective again with what he's got now. I assume that they want an experience strike-throwing type veteran. Camp was supposed to be that guy, they must think Guerrier might take that role. Obviously giving away slot money to save $0.5M in payroll was not the motivation. The motivation must have been some desire to get Guerrier.

BA now has Wilson and Garner dollars, both underslot by enough to get out from penalty. Essentially using the BA numbers, picks 2-10 are all signed. Even with the reported Skulina money, they are within the 5% overage for selections 2-10, and would NOT be in penalty now, even if Bryant did not sign. So there is no longer any reason to be holding Skulina back. If his deal isn't going through, then there is something else going on unrelated to penalty or to Bryant not having signed yet. But Boras does not have penalty leverage now; the Cubs do not NEED Bryant to sign in order to escape penalty. Once Bryant signs, that will free up cash for Clifton and whomever else they may pay overslot to in the 11-40 rounds. If Bryant signs at $6.25, they'd have about $800K to play with. (Clifton asked for $800, so even if they give him all of that, he'd absorb $700K in overslot.) If Bryant signs at $6.0, the Cubs would have over a million for Clifton plus. If Bryant came in at $5.6, there would still be $1400K to use on Clifton plus.

If Bryant chose not to sign, the Cubs would either be in penalty and lose next year's pick, or else they'd need to get under by recouping that $67K excess via Garner and Wilson. Or else have it such that Skulina is not actually signed, formally, so that they aren't so far over.

Crum signed for $25,000 despite having a year of eligibility. After turning down $100,000 last year. Weird. He wanted 7-figures from the Cubs when he was drafted out of high school. Guess his expectations fell a bit. I was looking through list of previous Cub drafts from some years past. Pretty common that guys who seemed intriguing at draft, and who didn't sign over money or whatever, never turn out much. There are some Bryant and Appel and Prior guys who go to/return to college as high-value guys, and get picked higher. But certainly more exception than norm.

As cal mentioned, it will be really interesting to see how they handle the pitchers. Godley, who threw over 100 innings. But Z, Skulina, Masek, Frazier, and Garner, and Wagner, they've have all thrown in the 78-94 innings range. And they've all had a break since their seasons ended. Will be very interesting to see how long it takes before any of them get worked back into any box score games, and how many more innings they're allowed to throw. It's a pretty good-sized pool of reasonably healthy college juniors to consider. Last year Johnson threw around ten innings, but he was a special arm risk, so may have gotten especially cautious use. Heesch got 25, but he was a senior, so maybe the juniors won't be allowed that many? Or maybe they'll be allowed more, because he was a $10K guy of low developmental priority?

Everybody starts in Mesa, to get their feet wet, as cal noted. Often that ends up being one or two weeks, if that, of box-score games. For pitchers, they won't go in games until they've thrown some on the side. I think often a pitcher won't be allowed into a box-score game until he's built up to 30 pitches. I think Mesa is often a better instructional place. Lots of practice fields and video facilities. Little-know travel. Lots of pitchers around to throw to hitters. Who knows what they'll do with Hanneman. As a freshman, does he need more coaching and tutorizing?

Baez still will get one or two more AB's this game. But if he finishes hitless, it will be 9 games ago since his last hit in play.

Agreed. Bryant is worth about maybe $1.4 in discretionary funds. (Assuming he signs for $5.6, he would be $1.1 under slot plus 5% of his slot would be other $0.3.) If he refused to sign, and the Cubs already had Clifton/Alamo/Skulina/Masek/Frazier/Garner all signed to overslot deals, as I expect will happen eventually, the Cubs would be hopelessly overspent. Which would be a good situation for Boras. "You've over the limit if we don't sign, so you're paying the penalty. If we do sign, but over the limit, you're paying no more penalty than if we don't sign. So since you're paying the penalty either way, you may as well get the talent....."

Deleted double post.

I think it is encouraging that the Cubs though Skulina was worth $800K. I'm sure there were lots of other players available who'd have signed for slot; or who were still rated among the top 120 and would have been willing to sign for 2nd-round cash. But McLeod and the scouts liked Skulina. I think that speaks optimistically about what they hope he might become if he responds well to coaching.

Just the cost. I would have been shocked had he not signed. I think it's going to be pretty rare for any picks in the top-10 rounds to not sign, for Cubs or for any other team, so long as the current rules work. Players can list their signing expectations. Teams can see that, and can call and talk to the players or their advisors before they pick. I expect it will be very rare for a team to use picks on guys whose stated signing expectations don't match the clubs' willingness to pay. By contrast I don't think it will be rare at all for players to have signing expectations that exceed slot, and for teams to be willing to meet those. I assume that's all that happened here. Skulina expected 2nd round money or better, nobody drafted him in the second round, but in the 4th the Cubs were able to meet that expectation and scouted him favorably enough to make it worth doing so. I assume Masek and frazier will also have listed signing expectations higher than 5th and 6th round, and in each case the Cubs were willing to pay what it took. I'll be shocked if either of them sign for slot. And I wouldn't be surprised if both Masek and Frazier are at least $200K over slot. I just think there is so much discussion of price in advance of actual selections that teams always know what they're in for, and won't take guys on days 1 and 2 unless they are willing to pay. No surprises, no suspense about whether guys will or won't sign. The only suspense really is for how much, and whether some overslot 3rd-day guys might also be affordable.

Yeah, really weird.

He was pretty much like that in instrux, too. Whatever it was McLeod saw in him that looked so polished, it didn't appear to be his ability to make contact.

Wonder if he has gained any velocity or this is purely awesome movement/control against lower level hitters. http://www.idahopress.com/members/high-hopes-for-hawks-hurlers/article_59b879de-d3fb-11e2-8946-0019bb2963f4.html Hmm... The alleged weight gain, that's pretty significant. You'd think that some better velocity could result, although of course not necessarily. The 91-94, I may be wrong but I suspect they just snagged that out of BA's draft notes from last summer or their prospects book this winter. By most accounts there wasn't much (if any) 91-94 last summer at mesa. An actual controlled 91-94 2-seamer, if he now or someday could be working there regularly, would be a great pitch. Last summer he had 13 K's in 6 starts/21 innings. Fun to see 8 K's already in first start. These Northwest league lineups are pretty weak now, before the college draft picks sign, get into shape, and get integrated. Often half or more of the starting lineup won't be starting in July or August. Still, it's a very fun start. One single, one flyout, everything else K's or groundouts.

Hmm, I don't think it confirms anything at all. Their number one priority has been to get him to the United States. He could have just been throwing pen sessions for all we know. Getting pulled after 1.1 looks like standard operating procedure for a guy on a 30-pitch count. In Mesa, they don't usually pitch guys in "games" until their pitch count is 30; enough for two innings if sharp, but with a couple of walks and K's that probably wasn't enough to get him through the 2nd. As you say, cal, they had him throwing pens months ago. Other guys have been pitching in DSL games for two weeks, with pitch counts that have allowed them to go multiple innings. So doesn't seem likely that if he's been 100% healthy all year, that he'd have been held out and would now be being gradually introduced on a 30-pitch count. Whatever his hypothetical health issue, I have no reason to assume it's anything serious. But I don't see why the visa think would explain why he's on a delayed 30-pitch type count when other DSL pitchers aren't. The simpler explanation is that he, being a pitcher, has experienced some health issue. Perhaps a different, less probable hypothesis is that he was throwing earlier, but then they decided to shut him down and rest him for a while. And are now just starting to "spring training" him up again. Perhaps they figured little purpose in exhausting his usage for the year in Dominican, and they wanted to save some usage just in case he ever is allowed to come over?

Is Jiminez or any of the other players we think we're interested in old enough to be signed right away, or is he one who they'd need to wait a month or more before he becomes eligible?

Good news, I guess, but partly bad too. I'd hoped there was something else going on, that he was too old for the league or something. This would seem to confirm that he's been not playing because he's been injured.

$21,100 over slot. Hmm, I didn't picture him as a guy that needed to go overslot. I don't picture any HS pick after the 4th round signing for slot, unless they are really academically incompetent and are totally unqualified for college. Given how much academic assistance is available for even very poor students, not that many guys are in that boat.

I think that "neighborhood" number is literally "neighborhood". Reference was made to 3rd round dollars, which range from around $750-500. Where in the range Clifton settled, we don't know. The author in that article made some factual errors. So I'm not sure how reliable some of his details were. One was that the Cubs took Clifton with their first Saturday pick. They didn't, everybody else had a shot at him before the Cubs selected, but nobody else selected him. Which suggests that the Cubs either had no fear that he'd get taken by somebody else, or else that they'd have been OK if he had been and would have been fine with selecting a different guy in his place. I'm partly guessing that perhaps it was more at the high-priced end of the 3rd round. That would have left fewer other teams who had the cash space left to beat it, and would have also been closer to the $800K that Clifton's supposedly listed.

Are there any concerns that Lake made 5 errors in the last two days? Or is that a non-issue?

The toughest signs outside the top 10 will be/were 12th founder Trevor Clifton, 24th rounder Tyler Alamo, 25th rounder Marcus Doi and any of the HS or JC guys in the 30s, including 37th rounder Jeremy Martinez. How significant is Alamo, do you think? Seemed like the scouting reports said he was big so he might have power, but other than size they didn't sound that positive to me. I wonder how much overslot he cost? I'll be surprised if he cost more than $250, but I'm just guessing. Were there any rumors on that?

I agree, he sounds like a really good prospect who seems well qualified to be a 3rd round pick. Few 3rd round guys end up being good major leaguers, so he'll probably prove inadequate like most of the others, in which case the judgment that he was a poor choice/overdraft will remain viable. But it seems from the scouting reports that his physical qualities are well qualified or overqualified for where he was taken. Top-end speed, 15-20 HR power, CF-quality defensive tools, and seemingly having the hit tool, what's lacking? Seems like the only criticism was that he's 22 and inexperienced. But if a guy is a natural hitter with a good stroke who was really productive even after missing 2.5 years, why can't he be a good hitter when he's playing consistently and getting optimal coaching? If he comes up as a good player when he's 25 or 26 instead of when he's 22 or 23, I don't care, as long as he's good when he arrives. I also think that if Theo think he's the BPA in round 3, he should probably take him in round 3. There are a lot of smart scouts around the business. If you see a guy who you think is really good and is BPA right now, I think you should assume that some other scouts might recognize those same qualities, regardless of the BA rankings, such that he may not be available a round later. (Granted, if there's somebody else you like just as well, maybe take that guy now and hope Hannemann still lasts another round. I suspect the Cubs didn't do that because somebody in that room really felt that Hannemann was better than, not just interchangeable with, the alternatives at that spot.)

So obviously the Cubs couldn't have gotten him a round later, and he's not a flagrant overdraft. Interesting, actually, that Toronto would have been calling him that far ahead. It's one thing to be the top guy on your board at 47 (or 41); it's another to already be knowing that when the draft is only at 25. They must have had him pretty high on their board.