craig

I love him so. SSS be damned. Heh heh. So, how likely is it that DH goes NL in the near future?

Kane up 5-0 after three. Vogelbach with two singles, average up to .321, although with no power. (15 singles, 2 XBH)

Loosen got a lot of K's last year, too, so he must have something that can make guys miss on a good day. At least minor league guys. I agree with toonster, I think Jokisch has a little more zip than Raley and certainly than Rusin. His results have been better than Raley, although if you just look at K/BB/HR rates, they look a lot the same. But Raley has always given up more hits: his minor-league H/9 is 11.1, Jokisch's is 8.3. I think it's unlikely to expect Jokisch to be particuarly good. But as long as he keeps getting guys out, I'm going to keep hoping that he'll end up being good.

Kane Cty is actually playing. No score in second, Johnson 3K/2H/1BB through two, one of the hits a Texas leaguer Martin probably should have caught. Contreras has quickly gotten a passed ball.

Alcantara has rebounded offensively, he's up to .288, plus with all the walks and steals. I'd wondered if he'd be overmatched in AA, and questioned if he should even be promoted, and when he'd gone down to .220 or whatever I'd been worried. But he's been hot lately. However, he made his 7th error already. Last year I thought hie error rate was scary, but nobody else seemed to mind. Now he's 7 errors in 14 (or 15?) games. Sooner or later he's got to cut back on the errors. A lot.

Gray goes 6, coach said something about protecting him or something, pulled him at 82 pitches. 10K/0BB/2 singles. Hit 100 several times, topped at 103.

3 more K's in the 3rd.

Loosen's K'd 3 in the first two innings. Nice to have him back.

Contreras is off to a nice start offensively, walks and power both looking nice, although of course Kane plays so rarely that it's way premature. But he's only caught a handful of games, already has 3 passed balls, and without actually paying good attention it seems like base-stealers are like 14-for-15 when he's been catching. I'd love to get some feedback from people who have been or will go to Kane games about how he looks defensively.

A good Bruno comp, as a hitter, might be Darwin Barney. Both are low-power guys who don't walk a lot. *Bruno K's more in low minors than Barney does in majors. *Barney hit 7 HR's/548 AB last year. Bruno has 3 HR's/301 AB at Boise/Daytona AB's. If anything those numbers actually favor Barney! So I don't see Bruno having a meaningfully superior amount of effective game HR power. And he's 5'9" and turning 23 this calendar year, so I don't anticipate much "filling out into more power" happening. Probably his present strength is pretty much what he'll have. *XB power; Bruno has 31 XBH per 111 hits (28%); Barney last year had 37 XBH per 139 hits (27%). So they look roughly similar there. *Both have tracked as low-walk guys. Bruno walked very rarely in college, although toonster has noted that his role may have contributed. Thus far his walk-rate has been decent (23 walks/301 AB), somewhat better than Barney (33 BB/548 AB) *Bruno has been a tremendous BABIP guy so far, .433, between Boise and Daytona. Barney was .273. Obviously both are probably anomalous. Obviously Barney doesn't seem like as upbeat a comp as Pedroia, but I don't mean that to be a downer on Bruno. An upgraded Barney could be a valuable player. If Barney added ten walks, an extra 2 HR's, and extra 5 doubles, and raised his BABIP from .273 to .330, none of those would greatly change the general profile of low-power-contact hitter, but a little better here and a little better there and you've got a pretty good hitter.

heh heh, to use a wish comp from old days, Pete Rose might be. Wasn't a power hitter, wasn't fast, wasn't real good defensively anywhere but was decent everywhere, thus he started at multiple positions over his career. But he was good at getting hits. At least, that's the caricature for Rose. That's probably ridiculously unfair to Rose, though. He did have power, with 15 or more HR's 3 times (in an era where HR's were down), and seven straight years with 10 or more HR's. 160 career HR's. He also stole 198 bases, as many as 20 in a season, ten seasons with at least ten steals. So maybe he was really a 4-5 tools guy rather than the one tool hit-but-nothing else guy of his legend. OK, this was a worthless post. But, I guess for Bruno it all depends on how much hitting he can do. If he can hit .300 and play acceptable defense, he's valuable and will have a long career, even if both Iso's are low.

Thanks, kyle. Very interesting data. I agree with you, it supports the concerns about Baez's K-rates.

Jokisch's results have been better than his reported stuff would suggest. He had pretty good K-rate at Daytona, and his ERA last year in AA was 2.9, although his K's were down. My recall is that he had a lot of excellent games, and a few clunkers. But my recall was also that I didn't think his profile was consistent; one game K's, then not; next game all groundouts; next game rather few. I'm kinda guessing he's a 4-pitch guy, and between fastball/cutter/change/curve, he goes with whichever seem best on a given day. I wonder if Jokisch isn't a guy who doesn't have anything special, but has a consistency to not throw many mistakes?

Thanks, interesting. I could imagine he could go either extreme on BABIP. Bat speed and all that, when he guesses right and actually hits the ball, you'd think he could be above average. Conversely, as a big-leg-kick guy I could see him being routinely off balance. As a guy who K's all the time because he can't actually make any contact, I could imagine a lot of the swings when he does make contact being weak contact. As a guess hitter when he guesses wrong I could again imagine being way off balance with weak contact. Hopefully he can work it all out. And perhaps being such an auto-out now might end up being better than doing like Jackson and waiting till he's 24 to even try to change things. So perhaps this is exactly the kind of haplessness that will prompt him to make changes that could help him.

Last year Silva was 92K/5HR, but still hit .296. This year he's 4K/3HR (at least according to milb.com). Was Baez a low BABIP guy last year too? Wouldn't be surprising if that's a chronic issue. One guy who isn't having any BABIP problems is Dr. Bruno. I think he's 19-for-39 on balls in play, with 5 walks. I think he was a really high BABIP guy at Boise as well. .435 BABIP there.

A quick move up to Iowa, followed by success including one or both of newfound power or plate discipline. I just need one of those and he doesn't need to move up that quickly. He is repeating AA but is age appropriate. ..What I'd like to see/find out about Ha - a) Well, let's start with the easiest thing - how good is that defense in CF? ... b) Can his discipline show something close to what it did in the 2nd half? So far, it isn't at the same level, but obviously it's too early. c) What kind of power can he show?... d) Can he be consistent offensively, .... Fringe prospects often have a hot week at some point during a season. If it's during April, when there aren't many other numbers to average, the stats catch the eye. But even with the hot month, he's shown no power and has K'd plenty (8K/0HR). So probably nothing really important happening here. But I think this is the kind of burst that can get him onto the "possible starter" landscape, in the "anti-awful" area. When looking for starters, I'm usually looking for asset guys. But DeJesus and Sappelt aren't long-term answers; Almora is years away at best; and Jackson is a long-shot off to a very poor start. So if Ha could emerge as a .275BA/.330 OBP guy with 5 HR's and .400 slugging, that might qualify for "could be starter" anti-awful role. Agree with each of your Q's, toonster. a) Is he a good CFer? Or is he more in the DeJesus/Sappelt or even Hairston class? c) I don't think the power question is that big; because I think it's a given that he'll not hit with power. Obviously there is still the issue of how awful/anti-awful it will be, though. Last year he slugged .385; year before .413. So I suppose one could go optimistic and wish for a .400-slugger with 5-9 HR's? b) Since he won't hit for power or many HR's, his offense needs IsoD. He was a very low-walk guy in A, but last year he took quite a few walks, and thus far 5 walks/38 AB is fine again. We'll see how that holds up. When he went from A-ball hacker to AA-walk-taker, that came at the typically big price in K's, power, and average. It will be interesting to see how he balances the value and the profits of taking walks this season. It sometimes takes a guy a while to find his equilibrium. d) Agree that the consistency is a question. Every hitter has his hot and cold periods, but often they improve some at reducing the length of the slumps, and extending the hot streaks. Hopefully we'll see some of that this year for Ha. Obviously his last week he's been on fire, and his season BABIP is around .500, so whatever he's got going now will flame out soon.

A quick move up to Iowa, followed by success including one or both of newfound power or plate discipline. I just need one of those and he doesn't need to move up that quickly. He is repeating AA but is age appropriate. ..What I'd like to see/find out about Ha - a) Well, let's start with the easiest thing - how good is that defense in CF? ... b) Can his discipline show something close to what it did in the 2nd half? So far, it isn't at the same level, but obviously it's too early. c) What kind of power can he show?... d) Can he be consistent offensively, .... Fringe prospects often have a hot week at some point during a season. If it's during April, when there aren't many other numbers to average, the stats catch the eye. But even with the hot month, he's shown no power and has K'd plenty (8K/0HR). So probably nothing really important happening here. But I think this is the kind of burst that can get him onto the "possible starter" landscape, in the "anti-awful" area. DeJesus and Sappelt aren't long-term answers; Almora is years away at best; and Jackson is a long-shot off to a very poor start. So if Ha could emerge as a .275BA/.330 OBP guy with 5 HR's and .400 slugging, that might qualify for "could be starter" anti-awful role. Agree with each of your Q's, toonster. a) Is he a good CFer? Or is he more in the DeJesus/Sappelt or even Hairston class? c) I don't think the power question is that big; because I think it's a given that he'll not hit with power. Obviously there is still the issue of how low it will be, though. Awful, or at least somewhat anti-awful? Last year he slugged .385; year before .413. So I suppose one could go optimistic and wish for a .400-slugger with 5-9 HR's? b) Since he won't hit for power or many HR's, his offense needs IsoD. He was a very low-walk guy in A, but last year he took quite a few walks, and 5 walks/38 AB is fine so far. We'll see. When he went from A-ball hacker to AA-walk-taker, that came at the typical price in K's, power, and average. It sometimes takes a guy a while to find his equilibrium; it will be interesting to see how he balances the profits versus the costs of taking walks this season. d) Agree that the consistency is a question. Every hitter has hot and cold periods, but often good ones learn to reduce the length of the slumps, and extending the hot streaks. Hopefully we'll see some of that this year for Ha. Obviously his last week he's been on fire, and his season BABIP is around .500, so whatever he's got going now will flame out soon. e) I'd add the contact/K question. 96K's in AA is a red flag for contact, and 96K/6HR is hard on BA and OBP. When over 20% of AB's are K-outs, it takes a whole lot of BABIP to maintain a good BA and OBP, especially without HR's. Less than 80% of his AB's were balls in play last year, and he was batting .058 on the 102 AB's that resulted in K's or HR's. (For example, If you bat .058 on 20% of your AB, you need to BABIP over .360 on the other 80% if you want to hit .300 overall....) The K-problem is both an obvious statistical concern, but it's also a scouting red-flag. K's typically go up with level, especially at the AAA and even more so big-league level. So a 20+% whiffer in AA is certainly at risk, especially without projecting a bunch of HR's to lift the BA, OBP, and OPS. To some degree I think a lot of the questions for Ha are similar to what would apply for Szczur. Is the defense anything to help him, or not? How awful will the power be? Can he sustain enough OBP to be anti-awful offensively? Is his K-rate going to kill his average and OBP, in the absence of any compensating HR power? I wonder if either of these guys will still look interesting when the season is done?

Yes and no. I don't think he's from Wichita, I think he's from a smaller community. He was the QB on his HS football team, the typical "best athlete in a small high school" guy who's the best at baseball and football, and probably basketball besides. As a football guy, his summer schedule was impacted by football practice. So in Kansas, spring maybe doesn't come that soon, and by July football practice is probably starting. His college scholarship was definitely for baseball, and he knew baseball was his after-high school sport. Too small for football.

http://www.thecubreporter.com/04132013/giants-sweep-cubs-fitch-park#more Loosen pitched 3 innings, good news. Conway had three clean innings, 40-some pitches. Rosario also pitched again, got into the 2nd inning. Baez 4 hits, no or little hitting from anybody else (Soler, Dunston, Golden, etc.) Oops, is that the wrong day and this was reported a day or two ago in a different thread? O well.

Baez now has a 3-game hitting streak, the first time he's had so long a streak since getting promoted to Daytona. He's up to .190 average and .239 OBP. He hasn't been able to go over .250OBP at either Daytona last year or in AFL last fall. So it wold be cool if he could sustain something and get over .200 BA/.250 OBP.

What's the story on him? He was terrible at Daytona, 42H/13BB/10K, totally hittable and no K-stuff at all. And then very bad at Peoria also. Did it turn out there was some injury thing associated to rationalize the poor year?

This will be a key year for Watkins. The stats show progress; if he continues the progress this season, it's one thing. But the 3-year progression is largely perceived from the improvement last year. And that was largely built on a half-season of really good numbers. (There was little hint of progress early last year.) So he may be on a steady improvement track. But it could also be that he's been fairly flat and unimpressive, and that an unsustainable 2-month burst is skewing the graphs. If he can show the progress he showed last summer is sustainable and he continues to improve, that will be really fun. So far so good. The growth of some power last summer was huge for him, I think. He'd been kind of a Theriot, but adding some HR's added a bunch of numbers. Nice to be able to "use the whole field", including to the wall so that outfielders need to play him honest; and to "use the whole field" including the bleachers. 12 K's already is pretty tough, though. Not many low-power guys can sustain a .150-IsoD for long, and with 12K/33AB early, that's going to need to change. He's currently hitting .242, and not many .242-BA PCLers who can walk their way to good big-league careers. He'll need to not only walk but also hit.

4 HR. 7K/0BB, so fine in two of the three K/BB/HR areas, but not in the most important one. He gave up 11 HR's in 99 innings last year. That wouldn't seem that bad in the majors, but is horrible relative to low-A where few hitters have any HR power. I think in the Midwest league, the HR norm is closer to 4 HR/100 IP than 11. So that's probably going to be an ongoing challenge and issue for him.

Cabrera gives up 4 runs in 6 innings as Tennessee loses. Alcantara plays 2B again, I noticed he was at 2nd yesterday also. Was yesterday his first day there, or has he been there earlier too? I like it, a lot. His chances are a lot better if he can evolve into an elite defensive 2B. His chances of beating out Castro and holding off Baez at SS are probably not great, so getting started on learning to play 2B sooner rather than later makes a lot of sense to me. Not a lot of guys who can make that SS-to-2B switch as effectively and quickly as Barney did. Villanueva entered the game with a .534 OPS, but he got a double today. Still looking for his first walk, so his OBP is pretty ugly so far.

Poor Brett isn't even close to Javy Baez (11K/26AB/1BB).