craig

Hm, hadn't even noticed Loosen missing. That tweet is back on the 28th, I think, maybe something has come up since. Hopefully nothing significant for Jensen or Loosen. The minor league camp isn't that long, so I suppose even a minor setback might put you behind. Plus, if for whatever reason you're at the back of the rotation schedule, Daytona's fifth game isn't until next Tuesday, and Tennessee's till Monday with a day off on Tuesday. Plus, there are a lot of bad-weather cancellations early on, even in the Southern League. So if perhaps Jensen and Loosen aren't scheduled till next week Tuesday and Monday, and with a rain day maybe Loosen would move back to next Wednesday, perhaps it just makes sense to leave those guys in Mesa. I'd think you'd still list them with the roster, though, even if they aren't moving up with the team. But, I suppose there is also no time like week one where you need a full bullpen. If the starters aren't stretched out enough beyond 70 pitches or less, you've got a lot of innings to fill. So maybe sending an extra reliever along for a week, then sending up Jensen and Loosen when they're going to start is both good for them and also good for the bullpens until then? I hope it's as innocent and sensible as all that, and that neither are hurt.

Wow on Conway. I wouldn't have expected him to pitch until rehab in rookie league, and wouldn't have expected any 92-94 this summer at all. Crazy. Also "wow" that Rosario could be looking good and cruising. I'd just expected surgery after the report on his injury last year. Pretty nice that he's throwing pretty easily and enough to go multiple innings. That doesn't seem like the extreme rehab route, so great news. Also hadn't heart about Torreyes late, that was a visa problem? How late was he? 2B is an important position. If he can hit and play decent defense, he's a good prospect. Obviously if he can't play defense anywhere, then he's cooked. I'm very disappointed that Jensen is missing. I'm still hoping that Daytona goofed up and he's going to be there after all. But that sounds like injury to me. Last year early on Jensen, Rosario, Wells, and Burke looked like four very interesting prospects at Peoria. Seems all four have been hurt since. Hopefully some or all bounce back strong. Will be very interesting to see how wells looks this year. He was supposed to be the big, strong, durable guy. Hopefully he will be even after the injury.

Forgot about Beeler. He must also be at Tennessee, unless he got released or injured. He'd obviously be another rotation candidate.

Rohan hurt. Gutierrez had surgery last summer, so presumably is either working in Mesa or else released. Hatley is presumably with tennessee, whose roster hasn't yet been released, I don't think. Tennessee's rotation is a little different than I would have predicted a month ago. I'm assuming it might now be: Cabrera (I assumed he'd be Iowa) Jensen (I assumed he'd be Daytona) Lokisch (I assumed he'd be Iowa) Loosen Hendricks Am I missing anybody obvious? I would have expected Jensen at Daytona and Kirk at Tenn, instead of the apparent reverse. I imagine Jokisch already gave Tenn one lefty, and by keeping Kirk at Daytona that gives them one lefty also? Doesn't seem like having a token lefty should be much of a motivator for minor-league assignments, though. I'm just thinking here, dumb thought. Cabrera would seem to be the one starter at AA whose velocity and "stuff" have seemed to exceed their production. Jensen/Lokisch/Hendricks seem to be guys whose actual performance has perhaps been more impressive than their reputed stuff. Hopefully that they will continue to produce well, vindicate their stuff, and perhaps we'll get some reports on their stuff that are more favorable than we'd expected. Or maybe one or more of them is disabled, who knows.

Barney. Darvill fills in for the guy who fills in for Barney.

http://www.oursportscentral.com/services/releases/?id=4566964 1. As expected, has Baez and Soler. 2. Has Bruno and Saunders, but NOT Torreyes. So Torreyes and Alcantara must be with AA. 3. Will be interesting how Saunders/Bruno share 2B/3B. One plays only 2B, the other only 3B? If so, which plays which? Or will they both split time at both? 4. DeVoss is still listed with the infielders, even though there are only 3 listed outfielders, and Az Phil had mentioned DeVoss playing OF in Mesa. 5. Pierce Johnson is NOT listed. I'd kind of assumed he'd start right out at Daytona. 6. A lot of roster-fill type pitchers. 7. Austin Kirk, who pitched extensively in AA last year to decent success, is back on the Daytona list. 8. Starling Peralta, Ben Wells, and Austin Reed are all listed, and are probably the most high-ceiling starter possibilities (if they start.) I'd wondered if Reed might go back to Kane, but as a starter rather than relieving. I'd also wondered whether given how short his season was due to injury, whether Ben Wells might repeat A-. Perhaps a good sign that he's advanced; or perhaps they just don't want his arm going to Midwest league. 9. Michael Jensen is NOT listed. Of all the guys for Daytona's rotation, he was the one I thought was the most certain to be there, but I was wrong. seems like he had too good a season to repeat at Kane, so that leaves two possibilities. One is that he looked so good that they skipped him right up to AA. The more likely, I assume, is that he's got some injury issue. It doesn't look like the staff is so loaded with serious pitching prospects that they couldn't fit him into Daytona's staff or rotation, and if they wanted him at Daytona they could have also left Kirk at AA. So either he's hurt, or else he looked so polished that they just decided that AA was the best place for him developmentally. I want to hope for the latter, because if true that might reflect favorably on his progress. I suppose a 3rd possibility is that the list is "unofficial", and when the actual official roster comes out he'll be there after all. I just hope he's not hurt, because I like low-walk-low-HR control pitchers. 10. As expected, Rosario is not there.

One assignment that isn't too encouraging is that 2nd-round pick, BA's #31 guy Reggie Golden couldn't make Kane. When the outfielders are Chen, Zapata, and Trey Martin, that isn't an overwhelming cast of guys to compete with for playing time. Doesn't bode well for Golden's future.

DeVoss in CF, that was his spot in college, right? Or did he play corner OF in college? I don't think his offense is enough to be very interesting (no power, too many K's, and low average makes for a kind of bad recipe for success. But, that was one year, fair enough to give him one more to see if he can hit somewhat better. His 82 walks certainly gives him some interest.

I think it's good. Torreyes has a chance to be a very interesting offensive player, and he's very young. I think repeating Daytona makes good sense. If he struggles, that's not good. If he hits .300/.365/.800, then that reaffirms his interest. Great. Agree, for a guy who's young and who I've assumed might be pretty interesting, the negativity on his defense is discouraging. Agree with toonster, I'd like to see guys perform well for a somewhat sustained period at a level before promoting them. Chen wasn't that good at Peoria, let him repeat and see if he can be good at that level at least this year. If he is, then give him a shot at Daytona. Torreyes showed flashes but wasn't that good at Daytona, let him repeat and see if he can be good at that level. AS for the clutter, that leaves Torreyes, Bruno, and Saunders, with 2B and 3B to share. That seems OK to me. With DH, they can get their AB's. Bruno and perhaps Saunders also can play some OF (the Daytona OF looks pretty thin.) They can DH. Not a real problem.

Happy Easter, everybody!

My guess on the Daytona IF would be something like 1st - Geiger 2nd - Saunders/Bruno perhaps SS - Baez 3rd - Bruno/Carhart perhaps Darvill, if he's around, could perhaps fight for time at 2nd. That would leave Tennessee as Torreyes/Alcantara up the middle, with Villanueva at 3rd and who knows what at first (honestly, no clue ... Lopez? ) Those sound like pretty good guesses. I'm really very interested in only two questions here: a. Will Torreyes go to AA (at this point I'm assuming yes, although I'm still hoping no...), or repeat at Daytona? b. Assuming he's not at Daytona, and assuming Bruno and Saunders are both at Daytona, which plays more 2B and which more 3B? It may well be that somebody like Carhart or Darvill, neither of whom were guys who got even a mention for our top-50, will end up playing a lot. Maybe Carhart will hit better than any of the other names, who knows. But I'd think the choice of who gets 2B might reflect management thinking, and might be the one viewed as the best prospect with the best chance to become a regular starting 2B in the majors. Will be interesting to review this in May or mid-June, and see how the reality shakes out as compared to the speculation, both in terms of usage and actual production.

AZ Phil has noted that DeVoss has been with Daytona's OF. So I don't think he's a factor for 2B anymore.

Devoss is in Daytona's outfield.

Geiger is obviously Daytona 1b. Bruno I presume is either 2nd or 3rd, depending on whether Torreyes is at Daytona or Tennessee. Torreyes has been still with the Tennessee group as of latest Phil report, and I can't think of any serious 2B at Tenn. So maybe they're just moving him up, and giving Bruno 2B at Daytona.

...while it was a signability pick, it wasn't the gigantic reach that people made it out to be. ... even the most pessimistic accounts on Simpson pre-draft ...was better than what he showed last year. Simply put, for whatever reason, he never rebounded from mono and uh, crap, what was the other thing, slipping my mind. Once the velo was gone (he was what, topping out high 80's last year?), he just wasn't the same anymore. Yes. We know pitcher picks are injury risks. He injured his elbow and has never been the same. I believe the report was that he had a broken or cracked elbow or something. The fact that he was an unpopular pick to start with makes it seem worse. But the same thing could happen with Appel or Gray, and the blame-tossing won't be the same. But I think it might be completely coincidental that the unpopular "reach" pick happened to be the one whose elbow got shot.

Interesting point, Tim. Thanks. How many AB does it take to be "qualified"? One other observation from Phil's roster list is DeVoss is listed with the outfielders. So that takes him out of the 2b clutter at Daytona. And Alcantara was listed with the Iowa group, so that probably reflects that he'll be at Tennessee, as expected, and contrary to my dopey idea of holding him back. Maples was not listed as "inactive".

I think his stock has gone up huge since the draft. If the Cubs had taken him at #6 last year, I don't think there would have been many happy campers at nsbb, at the time, after he hit only .322 last spring and struck out fairly much for a college bat. But OPSing over 1.000, while making it up to AA last summer, has more than recovered his status. Was a case where his stock entering the spring was higher than by draft time. Buxton was a big prospect entering, but hit like 2 or 3 HR's all spring. Both, to me, were guys whose springs did not really solidify the big reps they had entering the spring. Raised more questions than they answered. Appel didn't help his stock either, I don't think. Some other popular pitchers were hurt. This year, and I know it's really early, Manea has been dog-paddling and Stanek has done some sinking. But Appel has really strengthened his case; Gray has of course elevated a ton; Frazier and Meadows are answering questions, not raising them. I guess I'm thinking that the reputation for the class entering last draft may have been better, and this one a lot worse; but my feeling was that there were a lot of disappointments with the potential studs last year, and this year the reputation seems to be going up rather than down. maybe I'm misremembering it all, but I thought at this point last year Almora was projected by a lot of the draftnicks as mid-first, nice but limited upside (limited power and speed). I may be crazy, but I'm much more intrigued with Appel and Gray right now than I was with Zimmer and Gaussman. And I think both Meadows and Frazier look more appealing certainly than Almora did by most accounts, or Correa or Buxton. (Despite Buxton's tools). I also kinda think that Almora's stock has gone up since 12 months ago. After the draft and a year of buzz, now we perceive him really favorably. But during the draft spring I sure got the feeling that a lot of analysts, and posters, saw him more as a safe, conservative pick but without huge tools or huge potential.

Nice, thanks. Kind of fun to see some different names pop up. Penalver maybe cracked our top 40? Would be nice if he started to emerge as a genuine guy. Amaya, he seems to be getting increasing notice. Just as there were Amaya/Marco discussions in our top-20 discussion, they again get listed together here by Theo. While he was a sandwich pick, Blackburn has not tended to get much buzz. He struggled last summer, and Az Phil gave him some pretty low velocity evaluation. This seems to be at least the second comment this camp that he's looked good, so that's encouraging.

Rather unenthusiastic phrasing. Of course, Baez was written up as not having much projection either, since he was already pretty filled out. So I suppose that being literal, projection is essential only if your present skills are lacking. But if like Baez you already have the serious power, you don't need to project more. I suspect the Cubs may tend to value smoothness and present polish over projection and wow tools, to some degree. A year ago the reports on Almora at this point were not gushers; smooth and polished and smart, but neither his power nor his speed nor his arm were "wow" tools. Some think he has the swing to project solid 20-HR power, maybe 25. But I suspect it's more because they think he'll hit the ball than that his actual raw power projects well above average. Last summer, the report on de la Rosa were similar: scouted as a good, alert player, but didn't project big power or SS tools or speed. Maybe you get a .300 hitter with 15-18 HR power who plays a polished 2B, but no chance at a HR title. I wonder if Torres isn't more along the Almora/de la Rosa style, and if that isn't more the style of player the Cubs like?

I've wondered about that too, Dave. That wold be nice. Several things that dampen my expectation: 1. Last year was very soft on top. Would Correa be in the top five this year? Or Zunnina? I think the top is much stronger 2. Cubs were a strong superslot then, when we thought they could have leverage to slot or less. 3. I think they are strongly committed to getting BPA at #2. May see this as a once in a lifetime opportunity, and they aren't going to pass on their top guy in order to save a million for round 2. (If they are really sold on Appel, I'd not be surprised to see them preoffer a superslot, in hopes Boras uses that to turn Houston off. To some degree I think that's how it worked with Almora last draft.) But, it does seem the possibility of saving money is there. Slot drops by $1 each step from 1-2-3. When you call a guy with the 2nd pick, "If we pick you, do you want to sign for slot or maybe 5% below slot? Or would you prefer that we pass and take Manea?" It's pretty hard for the guy to say no. The drop in slot is so sharp that it's hard for the teams behind to meet or beat your slot. Just slot-signing and then using the overslot on round 2 should get you somebody you'd rated in your top 20, since there's always somebody you like better than other teams that slips. (Pierce Johnson, for example.).

I'm not very hip. What does that mean?

Not sure. But if 3 is median, in the uncertain world of probabilities that gives a pretty meaningful possibility that you might get 4. If we had four good rotation starters with very good arms by next July, that would be quite a jump from what we have now, or what we had last year. It's possible. In terms of health, I think the median would be five healthy. (maybe 4.7, or something nearer 5 than 4). Obviously being healthy and being "good" are not the same. Vizcaino might have his arm strength back, for example, but that hardly means he'll have the control.

Vizcaino is the only presently sore-armed prospect I mentioned, and Garza is the only presently-injured vet of the 7 good-armed guys I mentioned (Samardz/Jackson/Garza/Vizcaino/draftee/Johnson/Paniagua). I'm not assuming 5-7 of those 7 will look good in July 2014. But right now we've got two good arms (Samardz and Jackson) and 3 filler spots. I think it's reasonable/plausible that by July 2014, we might have four of those seven guys healthy enough and advanced enough to be in the rotation, and need only one filler guy. I'm not assuming it will work out. All seven might be injured by then, or all of those that aren't might be wild and performing poorly. But there's at least a reasonable plausible possibility (possibility, not expectation) that we could have good arms than fillers in the rotation by next summer.

It's fun to think about how quickly the pitching staff could change, if health permits and things go right. Baez, soler, Almora, they are exciting but they are probably some distance away from breaking in, and perhaps longer before being really good. But pitchers are often as good or better as rookies as they are later. It's not at all implausible that by August 2015, that Gray or Appel would be ready to join Samardz and Jackson. In the off chance that Garza actually gets and stays healthy, I don't expect his trade value is going to be too hot, so I think there's a fair chance the Cubs will end up resigning him. So I could well imagine Samardz, Jackson, Garza, and Gray by next summer. Pierce Johnson should be ready by then also, if things go right. He'll start at Daytona, so if he's good he'll get up to AA this summer, and be able to start with Gray/Appel at AA next April (health and performance permitting, of course.) If Vizcaino is to make it back, he should be ready by next summer as well. And if Paniagua is ready to start this year at Daytona, in the even he ever gets his visa stuff worked out, anybody who's starting at A+ one spring is fairly likely to be big-league ready by the following August if things go well. Obviously everything isn't going to go well for all of Vizcaino, Paniagua, Johnson, Garza, and #2 pick. But there is some volume that could transform the talent level of the rotation before 2014 is done. It's getting the hitters fixed that's going to take longer.

That's not entirely accurate these days with the early signing deadline. Cole and Hultzen didn't pitch in 2011 but not only did Bauer and Sonny Gray pitch, they both got up to AA in the year they were drafted. Last summer, both Gausman and Zimmer ended up pitching in the minors, as did our very own Pierce Johnson. True. Hyperbole on my part. Cole and Hultzen didn't pitch. Sonny Gray pitched 20 innings. Our own Pierce Johnson pitched 11. Trevor Bauer pitched 26. So they might pitch a little; but either none at all or not much. 10-20 innings this August I don't think makes much difference developmentally. Although I suppose that even 20 innings might be meaningful for schedule; if a guy pitches 20 innings in A+ or AA, and looks good, that might be the baseline so that it's easier to assign him straight to AA next April. Mark Prior didn't pitch at all, but then was assigned straight to AA his first spring. By summer he was called up. That's kind of how I'm seeing it: with Gray and Appel, whether they pitch a bit this August or not, I'd expect they'd start next spring in AA. And if they pitch well, I expect they'd be up sometime next summer. If they don't pitch very well, of course, perhaps not. And it might not be out of the question that Gray might be started in daytona rather than AA, if he didn't pitch at all this summer. If either struggles some in AA, of course they might not get called up next summer. Given that Gray and Appel seem to be throwing 9-inning games and throwing 100+ pitches every FRiday, and given that both are on good teams that might stay in the playoffs for a while, my guess is the Cubs wouldn't actually pitch either one this summer. With Appel having Boras, he's not likely to sign very fast, so he might be especially unlikely to have the time to sign and get stretched out again enough to actually pitch in games.