craig

Good point. Seems unusual in that most of the big-name guys coming in are playing at or above their hype, and others are emerging. Usually a bunch of the touted guys don't necessarily perform. Zunina last year wasn't stellar; from days past, Bobby Brownlie comes to mind. But thus far it seems that with a few exceptions, most of the big names are performing at or above expectation. Stanek is the one sinker, and obviously Manea hasn't helped himself. But Appel has elevated enormously, from good-arm-but-where's-the-results guy to a guy whose production and K/BB stats look great. Gray has obviously gone crazy. Bryant has gone crazy. Frazier has gone nuts, and Meadows is doing well. Last year Buxton came in with huge rep, and still went #2; but he hit about 2 HR's all spring. I think the strength at the top looks very good, and the depth through 42 as well.

No. I think his numbers look better than his scouting potential, and that scouting-wise there must not be big-league arm/stuff. They've got him with the A-ball group, so this will be his 4th year in A-ball. That's not usually what teams do with big-league prospects. The thing that stands out with his numbers is his high HR-rate. 29 HR in 225 full-season innings is very bad, since guys don't hit that many HR's in A-ball. Whether that's a fastball that is lacking (movement, speed, location), or a breaking ball that hangs too often, who knows.

Friend watched the Gray game, was really impressed. Ranked him as the best of the college pitchers. Said stuff was fantastic, overpowering velocity, great command, said he was throwing his slider for strikes like it was nothing, and threw a lot of dynamite changeups. Also said he had big-league mound presence, didn't get upset when the ump blew some calls, or when defense messed up. With his 3-pitch repertoire and his great command, it won't take him long. College picks this draft won't pitch this summer. But with his command, he might be on a kind of Prior-type schedule. As with any pitcher, who knows how long he'll last. And as with any pitcher, who knows how it will be on 5-day rotation versus the 7-day college schedule. But I'd guess he's moving away from Manea. And that if the Cubs really want a college pitcher, and are willing to live with the injuries and short careers that come with the territory, they'll have a very good one available.

I feel the same for Alcantara. He's 21, he's played only half a season at Daytona. His defense is extremely raw (0.42 errors per game), his plate discipline is very raw (5%), his overall offense was good but not great (.786 OPS). His previous season his OPS was only .655. So I'd like to see him show better defense, better plate discipline, show he can sustain his offense, and show better offense. It's not like .786 OPS is such compelling offensive profile that he's not challenged there, or so overwhelming that it commands a promotion even if his plate discipline and error-defense is raw and lousy. Baseball is a different sort of deal, I realize, but there could be some targets set: reduce your error-rate below 0.30/game; get your walk rate up over 7%; and get your OPS up over .800. Do that and sustain that for at least a month, and welcome to Tennessee. I guess for a player as young and raw as Alcantara, promoting him after only 71 games at a level seems like kind of a rush. But, Baez is coming, so lesser prospects need to get out of the way. That might mean Tennessee for Alcantara. I could also easily see Alcantara and Baez flipping leagues mid-season, once Baez is ready for AA. Unless Alcantara is performing pretty well at AA, he might get sent back down, kind of like happened with Marco Hernandez last summer.

I agree. DeVoss is a very fringy prospect. He can't play big-league defense at 2B. He's just minor-league roster filler probably, maybe a shot to become a 25th man OFer/emergency 2B. He should be a non-factor in the Daytona 2B puzzle. Whether you get him away from Daytona 2B by sticking him at Tenn, Kane, or Daytona OF, wherever you need a body. I agree that Torreyes is meaningful and what's best for his development is where he should be. I'd like to see him improve or sustain some success at Daytona. But, I do think his gift for contact and his greater experience at Daytona makes him probably the least likely to get killed by AA pitching.

Other interesting note from Phil's list is that Underwood and Blackburn are both with short-season group.

2B clutter. Torreyes, Bruno, Saunders, Amaya, DeVoss, that's 5 second-basemen who all belong in full-season A-ball. Add in Baez and Alcantara, who can't both play SS for Daytona at the same time, and who are both serious prospects to play 2B beside Castro someday. Thoughts: 1. DeVoss to OF. *He's not nearly in class with the other guys defensively at 2B, and Daytona is thin in outfielders. I imagine his 2B days are probably over. 2. Move some guy(s) to AA? Who? *Torreyes, Alcantara, and Saunders all could. I think that's rushing each one and could be counterproductive developmentally. But, maybe it's developmentally better to play regularly than to to sit. *I'd least mind moving Saunders. He's the oldest and the weakest prospect. Challenging him with a "prove it or lose it" might work. If he still hits in AA, then you know you've got something. And if he can't, then nothing is lost. *Torreyes might be best qualified as a hitter. If he did go AA and post a serious OBP at AA, his reputation and status could grow fast. (Not a lot of 20-year-olds in AA with .350+ OBP.....) But he's a significant prospect, and I don't want his development compromised. *Alcantara is the most raw, both as hitter and fielder. But if they want him and Baez to both play SS, rushing him to AA may be unfortunate but perhaps necessary. 3. Move guys to 3B? *Any 2B ought to be movable to 3B, whether or not they have the arm or the power to play 3B in the majors. Bruno, Saunders, Alcantara, Torreyes, I can see any or all of them getting some 3B time. *Some of these guys might make it as utility major leaguers rather than starters. Getting experience at 3b could help prepare them. *If playing 3B gets them on the field so they can get their AB's, that's worthwhile. *I'm imagining Bruno being especially likely to play 3B? *Baez or Alcantara. Both certainly have big-time 3B arms. With Castro at SS, getting some practice at 3b may be more than just necessary way to both play at once, it may be a very helpful training for one or both. 4. Move to OF? *Maybe not just DeVoss. Could Bruno play a lot in OF? 5. Hold somebody at Kane. *Bruno's bat may be qualified for Daytona, but since Kane would still be a normal promotion, putting him at Kane might be the least insulting. One or several from the Baez/Alcantara/Torreyes/Saunders class might get promoted to AA later on, so starting at Kane based on Daytona clutter might set up for a promotion to Daytona later. *Saunders could perhaps go to Kane also. 32nd rounders kinda go where they can fit, and defer to the top prospects. *Amaya is pretty much the man at 2b for Kane, with Marco at SS. So if Bruno or Saunders do stay at Kane due to the Daytona clutter, they will still need to play utility/outfield. 6. Amaya is perhaps emerging as the best of the 5 second base prospects, given the size and power advantage that he has relative to Torreyes. I think he's pretty much locked in as the every-day 2B at Kane.

McLeod is a very positive guy. Saying a guy "should have been drafted much higher", when he was drafted 32nd round, might mean he should've been drafted in the teens, or maybe in the Bruno type area of the draft. Not quite like saying "he's a first round talent. Still, it's fun to read some positive comments about him. As McLeod says, we'll see how he does this season. If he's very good in Daytona, he becomes a little interesting. He whiffed fairly often and walked not a lot. Something will probably need to be more impressive hitting-wise to sustain. Probably something in the walks/power/K's domains will need to step up some.

I assume you're doing "best" as in guys who ended up best players, not the most impressive scouting choices. Joe Carter was like the #2 or #3 pick in his draft, so that was kind of like Mark Prior, don't miss there. Lee Smith was a good pick, 2nd round I think. One pick who could have been a great non-obvious pick was Kyle Farnsworth. He was drafted really late, and ended up with pretty elite talent. If he'd had more brains, self-discipline, and better work habits, I wonder how good he might have been able to become? Heh, we're also in the world of guys who actually signed. Tim Lincecum might be one of the best picks...

nice catch, Dave. Conway hadn't been listed on Phil's previous report, either. Not sure what that means. Maybe they're healthy enough to do bunting drills or practice covering 1B, who knows. I'm guessing the odds are like 0% that Conway is going to be pitching for serious right now. But maybe he's advanced enough to be allowed to throw from the mound already?

So, I mention Burke, and there he shows up on Az Phil's "inactive" list today. Maybe all those innings last year did wreck his arm.

AJ Morris Jokisch Loosen Morris had WHIP under 1, extreme groundball, extreme anti-HR (1 HR in 52 innings), low walks, and solid K-rate. His pre-surgery profile was generally similar. When HR/BB/K are outstanding/excellent/good, that's a winning profile. He's old, but his age is result of surgery and college, not the result of inadequate talent. The talent was appealing enough so that the Cubs traded for him, in the hopes that if he bounced back from the surgery his talent would make him worth the wait. That may be what's happening. He's got a chance to emerge as a pleasant and meaningful surprise this season. Which reminds me of Kyler Burke. Another guy who's old, not because of inadequate talent. Remember how much interest there was in him, and his supposedly 1st-round lefty arm that could touch 96? Last year was his first full year pitching, he faded in daytona, his velocity didn't hold up, and his slider was inconsistent. I wonder if, having now gone through a full season, he might not be an interesting breakout candidate? Perhaps he'll be able to hold his velocity longer into the season; or he'll move to relief and be able to throw harder there; and perhaps his slider will be tinkered up and will become more consistent? Still has a good chance to work out as a useful major league pitcher. Loosen had a lot of K's, and BA's sources liked him. I think his stuff may be underrated. Jokisch's stuff is definitely underrated.

Smooth day for Jackson. Baez/Soler 0-8.

Sure. Only, at half the price, 5 years older, RH instead of LH, and even less scouting enthusiasm, he seems like a much longer shot than Concepcion. But, that's the game I guess. You take your shots, and usually miss. Hopefully once in a while a shot hits and makes it worth it.

Thanks. Nice to know its done, and to get a dollar value on it. Hopefully he gets his visa issues sorted out so he can actually work on becoming a good pitcher soon. I wonder how much patience they'll have with a 25-year-old prospect. It sounds like he's a guy who could really use extensive coaching. The arm angle, the hook, the unreliable breaking ball(s), the control, these seem like a variety of issues that good pitching coach(es) might be able to help with, but will take time. But a guy who maybe needs a lot of coaching and tinkering wouldn't seem like a fast-tracker, more like a guy you'd like to have several summers and off-seasons to work with. Hopefully he's a quick study and takes well to coaching. I assume some of the scouting process is looking at what a guy is doing now, and projecting what he could be if you get your hands on him for a while. Hopefully the finished product will end up being reasonably useful.

Yes. Either take the average or the median of the votes submitted. Give a 41 to the outside of top-40 vote. I don't think that's a trolling, given how many votes are in the upper 30's.

I'm doing the same as toonster. I switched my vote from Contreras to Hendricks to try to resolve the Hendricks/Saunders competition.

Thanks. Having some chance at a 3rd pitch is somewhat encouraging. In any event, Cabrera seemed to me like a really good prospect at that age. The fact that he never got any better makes him look like a pejorative comparison now. But if Peralta is even close to as promising as Cabrera seemed then, that's pretty good. Prospects of that caliber don't all succeed, but some will. Maybe Starlin will be one who does. As to rotation, I think his chances are pretty remote there. If I could choose between having him as a good 7th inning reliever (guaranteed) versus gambling that he'd make it as an asset rotation starter (uncertain), I'd be happy to take the useful reliever and put it in the bank.

You may know more details, but on the face of it Peralta seems well behind cabrera. At the same age 21, Peralta was 3.44 at Peoria, with 86K/44BB/11HR/99IP. When Cabrera was the same age 21, he was 3.28 at Daytona, so was better at a higher level, but his splits were much better: 90K/26BB/6HR/93IP. Higher league, with slightly better K-rate and walk and HR rates barely half what Peralta had. Unfortunately Cabrera hasn't seemed to get much better since then. Hopefully, Peralta will. I'm interested in Peralta, for sure. If you can touch 97, that means you can probably work in the low 90's, that's good. He's sometimes had some strong GB-games; he's sometimes had low-walk games; he's had an occasional high-K game. Kind of the profile of a guy who can look very good on occasion; but he's lacked consistency. If he can pull the good stuff all together at the same time more consistently, you've got a chance for a good pitcher. I admit I'm a little cautious on expecting age-based improvement on fastball-command from Latin pitchers. If an American pitcher who'd played at a small college and gotten drafted was 22, I'd figure some coaching might tune up his fastball control. But when a guy is going into his 6th season as a full-time professional pitcher, my guess is coaches have maybe done as much with his fastball as coaching can do. If your fastball is wild after 5 pro years, will another year or two of coaching likely fix that? Slider and change, that's different, because they obviously limit that for teenage Latins. If you can control your fastball, in time there's a chance that you can figure out a good breaking ball. But if you can't control your fastball, I kinda worry. I'd certainly not put him ahead of a guy like Jensen, for example. But, hopefully Jensen, Peralta, and Cabrera will all end up working out much better than we can count on. The Cubs are certainly due to get some unexpected good luck.

toonster, Cabrera is exactly the guy I was thinking of. Big arm, but somehow the actual effectiveness hasn't added up to the velocity. But, who knows, hopefully he'll improve and get better than Cabrera has.

36. (Heh, with Rosario's injury, I'd bump him out of the top 45 altogether, but that's a different point...) Peralta has a serious arm, though, so I can see why you guys would vote him into the 20's. Seems kind of wild to me, though. But I'm going to put him right behind Scott, Arias, and McNeil.

I'd have him late 30's or early 40's, around in that bunch with Rosario, Austin Reed, Reggie Golden, Hatley, Dunston, guys like that who are far distant, who may have some talent but haven't had it help them be good in low-minors yet.

Cal, I want to vote for AJ Morris in the next vote. Low-walk/low-HR guys tend to work out well.

These are all interesting guys, I think. Contreras. 1. Limited number of guys with big-league defensive tools at catcher. 2. The Cubs have a vacuum at catcher. 3. Anti-awful factor. It's too easy to get way behind the league at catcher. A guy who might be good-defense-OK-offense might not be exciting, but might provide some anti-awful protection. 4. Contreras is 20, offense might improve. Power, K's, walks, none were good, but none terrible either. With all the attention given to converting to catcher, he may not have given the requisite focus on his hitting. So I'm hoping that there will be progress as a 20-year-old hitter. The flip side is that full-season pitching is WAY better than short-season. Mediocre offense at Boise, Contreras might get just buried in full-season. I don't see Saunders as ideally-suited to utility, because I think he's got a 2nd-base arm. 2nd-base arms either need to hit enough to start at 2B, or else they aren't that attractive as utility. Guys who can hit aren't easy to find, though, so if he can hit enough who knows. He looks pretty interesting as a hitter. Still, playing in low minors, he K'd a lot last year. Maybe just adjustment to pro ball, but might indicate some problems that will kill him at higher levels. I probably won't vote for him until we're well into the 50's. Huge year for Hendricks. The present assumption is no stuff, just a college polish handling A-ball hitters, but no potential, and that may be right. (I wonder if there are arm issues, past or present.) Despite the questions about his stuff, somehow he had enough for 123K/147IP. Not awesome, but above average, particularly given the 123K/18BB ratio. If he struggle he may be forgotten by June. But if he can translate his no-walk, low-WHIP profile up another level, he may earn a closer look. This won't sound exciting, but I could also imagine Hendricks perhaps ending up becoming a Shawn Camp type reliever. We assume relievers have to throw hard, but consistent strikes help get outs (and keep managers comfortable) in relief, too. A lot of games are lost in the 6th and 7th innings, so a guy who can throw consistent strikes can have a long career. Often managers keep the strike-throwing veterans with lesser arms over wilder, inconsistent guys.

Hendricks Jokisch Contreras. Hendricks, Jokisch, advanced limited-stuff-but-interesting-results guys. (Loosen, Kirk, and Rusin were also in mind). Rusin has a fair chance to make the team in April, and to pitch a fair bit for the Cubs this year. But being on the team and actually being desirable, that's different. Hopefully he will become good. Contreras because he's a catcher. Here we are at 45 and we're only thinking about getting a catcher on... The draft scouts must be looking hard at the catchers this spring.