craig

http://www.thecubreporter.com/03122013/2013-cubs-minor-league-camp-rosters-312 AzPhil's roster report, from yesterday. He now includes down through the A-ball groups, and both pitchers and hitters. Many guys have moved down since last week (including Pierce Johnson down from Iowa group to Daytona). So many are within a level of where they'll end up. As always, the "limited/rehab/inactive" list is most interesting. It's little longer than the one last week. Noteworthy additions are of course Rosario, Maples, and actually the new Cuban, Armando Rivero. Phil's injury listing may not be very complete, of course. While it's great that Josh Conway is progressing well enough to participate in some of the camp drills, we certainly know he isn't close to healthy and isn't even remotely close to pitching in a real game. So perhaps there are others like that, too. Phil also mentions that he hasn't seen Paniagua or Torreyes. Visa problems, maybe? Who knows. *McKirihan, who Phil listed as "inactive" last week, is not listed that way now. *For you long-term Antigua fans, phil lists him as down with the Daytona group. *As expected Rosario is injured. LIMITED ACTIVITY/REHAB GROUP (10): Marcelo Carreno, P (TENNESSEE) * Hunter Cervenka, P (TENNESSEE Dayan Diaz, P (TENNESSEE) Chang-Yong Lim, P (IOWA) * Alberto Mineo, C (KANE COUNTY) Dillon Maples, P (KANE COUNTY) Armando Rivero, P (TENNESSEE) Jose Rosario, P (DAYTONA) Casey Weathers, P (IOWA) Brad Zapenas, INF (KANE COUNTY) INACTIVE (4): Carlos Escobar, C (ankle/foot injury) Marcos Mateo, P (TJS rehab) Amaury Paulino, P (TJS rehab)

Lake has a rib fracture, out for 4-6 weeks.

Fair chance that Vizcaino doesn't. He might come back well enough and fast enough so that he has too much big-league time. Or he might have enough health/arm/control problems that he isn't top-100 anymore.

Torres Jokisch and Hendricks Torres for the control and the projection. With well over 1000 prospects competing in the DSL last year, to be ranked as one of the 20th best suggests some nontrivial potential. Velocity in the 90's, a strong/projectible frame, and excellent control, that's a good start towards becoming a good pitcher. Jokisch and Hendricks for performance. Hendricks has shown great anti-walk control. 2.80 ERA and 1.0 WHIP two years into his career, maybe his stuff is better than we think? Will be interesting to see whether his success carries up to AA this summer; and whether with an off-season to work on any optimizations, whether the Cubs might be able to coach his stuff up a bit more. His velocity scouted faster in HS than more recently; any chance he might be a little stronger or healthier or faster than we expect? Maybe Johnson will be able to long-toss him into more arm strength. :) Jokisch was 2.91 at AA. There have been some reports that he often was working in the low 90's, and has both a good curve and change. Smart, with good control. His stuff might also be better than we think; maybe he too can grow into a little more power; maybe his consistency can get a little bit better; and suddenly you've got a useful guy. Not sure how he projects as a big-league reliever, but if he threw a little harder in relief, and maybe had some tough-on-lefties features, he might become useful.

If Az tries to send him down, any other team can grab him under the same 25-man roster constraints that presently apply. And if nobody does, he does NOT need to be on the Cubs 40 to reclaim him. So the only way a trade works is if he's cleared the rest of the league, at which point the Cubs will have no 40-man reason to trade him. A trade only makes sense from the Cubs side if they either really believe Arizona will pull Peralta back off waivers and keep him on the 25; or if it's just a straight trade: Cubs like X more than Peralta, but Arizona likes Peralta more than prospect X. There are a lot of weeks before April, so Peralta might turn it around for them, and they might have other guys who get hurt over the next weeks. But for the reasons Cubswin spelled out, I think the Cubs have pretty strong chance that Peralta will become available to us.

Have we heard much about Marra's defensive projection? I assume yes, and positive, for you to ranking him this high? I admit I don't recall much if any talk about his defense. Given that he had decent patience and hit well in rookie league, and given that he's a catcher in a system with almost none, I can see some interest. I voted Contreras instead, since I have heard about his defense and his manager compared him to Pudge Rodriguez. One prospect that isn't on the list but might merit consideration at this point might be AJ Morris. He was a 4th round draft pick, had good arm reports, and had pretty solid if unspectacular results prior to surgery. The Cubs supposedly liked him so well that they targetted him in the Gorzellany trade, even though they knew he'd had surgery and would miss a year. But this year his numbers were pretty sweet. 2.0 GO/AO ratio; 1 HR; 0.98 WHIP; 15BB/52 IP; 42K not great but not bad either. I wouldn't be surprised to see him fall off this year in high minors, but neither would I be at all surprised to see him sustain strong success, and look like a very legit big-league pitching prospect. Often when a guy goes relief, it's because he's failed in rotation for some reason. But Morris obviously it was "just" the surgery. He was a big-league prospect pre-surgery, so I don't hold his relief status against his chance of becoming a good major leaguer. (When guys have 42K/15BB/1HR, thats a combo that wins, if it's even remotely sustainable.) For TJ surgery these days, most guys seem to recover their velocity. It seems much more rare to recover the "touch" for command. Morris would seem to have done so; Rhee not so. Hard to guess how they'll roster fill, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Rhee get released this camp. Too bad, he seemed so promising pre-surg.

Good point that Paniagua may stay extended. I'm guessing that having had him in Dominican camp all winter, though, that they've probably already had opportunity to work on mechanics. So maybe they won't want to hold him back for more tweaking now. Rivera is more likely to stay in XST, I think. He's new, and according to Muskat still hasn't actually even been officially signed. And I think his delivery will need some work. So having not faced real hitters for a long time, I'd think XST might be a good landscape for four things: 1) see live hitters again, 2) get mechanics adjusted, 3) Cubs decide which pitches they want him to actually use this year, and 4) get Cubs-way/enculturated. But, perhaps given how long it's been since he's pitched, perhaps they'll figure it's best to just get him out facing hitters in real games, and just kind of see what he's got? Maybe do the tweaking and refocussing next fall? If he does pitch for a box-score team, I think you're right that Daytona would be the likely place, although Kane might also work. cal, good point on Peralta. If we get him back at all, it will be very late I'm sure. I'm thinking they'll still start him, though, just in a piggy-back pitch-control. So probably start with only one or two innings, like they do with rehab guys.

True enough, trans. I do think it will take more than becoming "a bit more discerning". That makes it sounds as if it will be almost trivial and highly probable. There are lots of talented bats outside of the Cubs failed development program who have also struggled to adapt to advanced pitching.

I'll guess Johnson, Jensen, Paniagua, Burke, and Peralta.

Hmm. Green doesn't read well at all, does it. O well.

Teddy, great effort. Good to promote thinking. I think your list is really good. I expect there will be a bunch of guys who get released. And a bunch disabled. One of the big keys is whether they want to just take it slow with the new guys, and keep them in XST. Or whether one or more from the Underwood/Maples/Blackburn crew will go to full-A. I doubt it,

I see it your way too, toonster. I don't think guys like Marra, Saunders, Carreno, Rusin would be likely to crack the top-30's of hardly any team, although like you I haven't analyzed a bunch. I assume every team has some guys who either look like they have some talent but haven't done much of anything yet or recently (guys like Castillo, Hatley, Martin, McNutt, Golden, Maples on our top-31 BA list....) or guys who have been variably productive but don't scout that well (Loux, and that would be the umbrella under which Saunders, Raley, Rusin, or a pre-injury Carreno might fall.)

The "intrigue" is limited for any guy who the signing team thinks profiles as a middle-reliever. That's equivalent to saying: "we think he's pretty limited as a prospect." A guy with a notably strong arm, even if he's wild, they'll say he profiles as a late reliever. A guy who either has good mechanics, good control, decent 2nd or 3rd pitches, or throws very hard, they'll say he profiles as a starter. I think "middle reliever" is basically saying: he doesn't throw that hard consistently enough to be a late reliever. And while he may "try" to throw a breaking ball and throw a splitter that is sometimes good, he's got no control of them, so he doesn't profile as a starter either. "Middle reliever" = "limited prospect". Probably. :)

I expect Johnson is a lock to start at Daytona. His good show in instrux and now in camp has him likely bumped past Kane. But he's only got 11 innings in short season, so Daytona will already be a pretty major skip. If he does great there, I could imagine Tennessee later, whether that be May or July. I don't imagine many rotation locks. Johnson and Jensen at Daytona. Kirk and Loosen at Tennessee. Paniagua, could be EXT, Kane, or Daytona. Wells, who knows if he'll be healthy enough. I assume Reed will start at Kane, but Daytona isn't impossible. Scott is obviously a lock. Underwood, Blackburn, Maples, who knows which if any might make it? Arias, we'll see if he's healthy enough to open the season. But so many guys, nothing would surprise me. Burke, Daytona rotation, Tennessee rotation, or move to relief? Concepcion, will he be EXST, or make a full season, and if so starting? Will this new Cuban start or relieve, and will he be advanced enough for stay at XST to work with him, or will he start right out at Kane or Daytona?

http://www.thecubreporter.com/comment/210688#comment-210688 Cal mentioned this Arizona Phil article from yesterday, in which he made reference to the Cubs having apparently signed a 23-year-old Cuban pitcher of some possible interest. In the link, Phil lists the pitcher/catcher assignments for AAA and AA in camp. As always, the listings are somewhat questionable; many of the guys will end up moving down one or more levels; and many others will be released. The lists are helpful, just to get a reminder of what kind of personnel are available for the high minors other than guys who will get demoted from the Cubs. The list is not thrilling, IMO. More importantly, the list gives info on who's injured, as well as who isn't. There are usually some surprise injuries, or at least injuries that I hadn't known about. That is true as usual this spring, although overall I'm rather pleased that there aren't more injuries or more noteworthy injuries. Granted, these are just the AA/AAA groups, so many of the younger and perhaps more exciting arms might be injured, but we'd not know from these lists. Anyway, anybody on "limited activity" is injured to some degree. And the list is pleasantly short. Those Phil lists are: Chang-Yong Lim (Limited Activity Only - TJS Rehab)
 Marcos Mateo (Limited Activity Only - TJS Rehab)
 Marcelo Carreno (Limited Activity Only)
 Hunter Cervenka (Limited Activity Only)
* Dayan Diaz (Limited Activity Only)
 Andrew McKirahan (Limited Activity Only)
 Brett Wallach (Limited Activity Only) Hadn't know that Carreno or Cervenka or Diaz were hurt. I'd figured that Wallach had been released, and just forgot about McKirahan. Some noteworthies who are NOT on the "limited activity" list, all guys who have had arm issues in recent past or who ended up the year not pitching: David Cales
 Carlos Gutierrez
 (1st round pick we got from the Twins) Kyle Hendricks
* Zac Rosscup
 Dontrelle Willis
 Zach Cates
* Gerardo Concepcion
* J. Morris
 Ben Wells
 Seeing Wells on the list, without any obvious "limited activity" is fun. One noteworthy name that is NOT on the list is Jose Rosario, which I think is bad news. Pretty much anybody who pitched significantly in Peoria last year is on the AA/AAA rosters (Jensen, Reed, Wells, Concepcion...). So if Rosario was healthy and fine, I'd have expected him to be in the same group with wells and Reed and Concepcion, if not even higher. So pretty safe to assume that something isn't completely right with him yet. I thought this might be a nice thread to start. In due time we'll get similar lists, including "limited activity", for the lower levels. Overall I was more pleased than disappointed. Seems to me I can recall some very disappointing reads a decade ago, where Justin Jones and Billy Petrick might show up unexpectedly limited, or Sisco or Ryu, or whatever. Last year Maples. So this list isn't bad. We'll see when the lower minors list comes out.

Tell me again, how old does a Cuban need to be before he gets beyond the signing cap? Age 22?

Frandy Hatley Daury (not eligible if he doesn't end in "y")

I thought Arizona Phil had mentioned some rule regarding how quickly guys can be derostered. Such that Rusin, for example, couldn't be removed from 40-man until late in spring training? Anybody remember of understand either the rule or the logic behind it? I'm not sure I get it; if Rusin can't be derostered for a while, why were they able to deroster Believeau? And where does Raley stand, the Beliveau side (they could if they wanted) or the Rusin side (can't yet....)? Anybody know? I'm wondering whether Raley is on because they value him more, or if they just can't take him off yet, but may do so soon? Also, derostering is riskier than not Rule-5-ing. By exposing Hatley, a selecting team would have needed to keep him on 25-man. If they deroster Raley, a team could just put him on their 40-man, but could then option him to the minors.

I'm not close to voting for Chen yet. Had a .692 OPS last summer, and while he played center in Peoria I've got the idea that he isn't really a big defensive CF prospect, more of a LF. No hint of power thus far, although I suppose with time he might mature into Clevenger-type power. So looks like a 5th outfielder type prospect to me. Although, if he can improve his hitting enough so that his OBP is good, there's a place in the majors for guys who can play all three OF positions, and run pretty well. Sometimes a team with a hole or an injury has to start a guy like that. As with Theriot and Penalver, there's opportunity in the majors for guys who can support .340 OBP and play several positions, power or not. Penalver has a chance to become a good defensive SS. I can see a Theriot-type upside offensively, with a slightly higher defensive ceiling. Theriot has gotten over 3000 AB's in the majors, so again, there's obviously big-league value for singles-hitting defenders who can support .340 OBP. And certainly anti-awful is a big deal. You won't have stars at every spot; being anti-awful at your cheap and lesser spots is key. So perhaps if Penalver and Chen were someday the worst guys in the lineup, but were both .330 OBP guys, that wouldn't be too bad.

Loosen Hatley delaRosa Weak vote for Hatley. Good relievers are highly valuable, and Hatley has the arm and stuff where he could be one. But, results matter too, and he hasn't shown a lot. Probably one of the long line of good arms, but inadequate control/consistency that filter in and out of the majors and probably every system. But, given his late transform, I'm hoping he settles in. Maybe some coaching and sustained health and he'll be able to put it together. Chance isn't compelling but it's at least possible, and the alternates aren't a lot of sure things. toonster, I like Loosen better. You don't like his stuff. But BA had him at 89-95, and said his curve has sharpened up. That fits with what I've heard; that he had solid velocity and a good breaking ball this year. Not sure if he's curve and slider, or same pitch termed differently by different observers. He's been a 9K/game guy, so it would seem he's got a pretty good putaway breaking pitch. At least relative to FSL, and apparently better than Hatley had last year, or Struck. Loosen's WHIP has been solid, 1.1 last year. So this is no Dallas Beeler. Maybe his practical stuff is better than you've given him credit for, and maybe he's been improving where some other guys have plateaued?

thanks for sharing that.

True enough. Heh, If Hendry or Stockstill or Wilken (or Fleita internationally) took a pick that seemed counter to history and seemed to be going against the odds, it was easy to assume that they were just ignorant or impulsive, and did it without even knowing or realizing the risk. With the new guys, if/when they do go "against the odds", I think we'll know that it isn't because they hadn't studied the history. They'll know the risks, and will be pretty thorough and informed in their risk analyses. Yes, of course it's the nature of the board to discuss and debate and argue and criticize! But at least for now, it's fun trusting that the decision-makers know what they're doing and will make intelligent, informed decisions. If they do something curious, you know there will be some reason for it. I sure don't feel that way about my favorite basketball team the Milwaukee Bucks, and I haven't often felt that way about the Cubs before. I like it.

As Dave notes, we can perhaps sign a couple of big tickets and get several others too. Obviously it's a huge summer for the team. Getting #2 pick and international money is a rare opportunity and may not happen again for a long, long time. (Unless it happens again in 2014...) However they divvy it up internationally, whether it's focused on one big stud, a couple of $1-2 million range guys, or really spread around, I trust that they'll be pretty thoughtful and analytical about what they try. And I know they'll be investing a whole lot of scouting time on this. I think the ideas would be a player who was so outstanding that we could justify $3 or whatever, and that in due time he'd look as promising as Solar/Baez/Almora do now. But I'll accept whatever they do, and hope for the best. A pitching rotation can come together pretty quickly, sometimes. Perhaps two years from now, a camp with Samardz/Appel/Paniagua/Jackson/Garza/Johnson/Vizcaino might perhaps look very gifted. Position players, though, that's going to take longer even if guys work out.

Two innings in, but Rondon has been good. Hope he can keep it up. Would be awesome to create a useful pitcher out of the Rule 5.

Not sure I'm following your points here. "I just think calling his approach garbage isn't fair." Who called his "approach" "garbage"? I didn't. I think his approach is excellent, if "approach" means choices/plate discipline/anti-hacking. I just think he can't hit. I guess I don't think he "has the hit tool". But I hope I'm wrong. It would be pretty cool if good development could coach it into a guy who showed no hint of possessing it.