craig

...while it was a signability pick, it wasn't the gigantic reach that people made it out to be. ... even the most pessimistic accounts on Simpson pre-draft ...was better than what he showed last year. Simply put, for whatever reason, he never rebounded from mono and uh, crap, what was the other thing, slipping my mind. Once the velo was gone (he was what, topping out high 80's last year?), he just wasn't the same anymore. Yes. We know pitcher picks are injury risks. He injured his elbow and has never been the same. I believe the report was that he had a broken or cracked elbow or something. The fact that he was an unpopular pick to start with makes it seem worse. But the same thing could happen with Appel or Gray, and the blame-tossing won't be the same. But I think it might be completely coincidental that the unpopular "reach" pick happened to be the one whose elbow got shot.

Interesting point, Tim. Thanks. How many AB does it take to be "qualified"? One other observation from Phil's roster list is DeVoss is listed with the outfielders. So that takes him out of the 2b clutter at Daytona. And Alcantara was listed with the Iowa group, so that probably reflects that he'll be at Tennessee, as expected, and contrary to my dopey idea of holding him back. Maples was not listed as "inactive".

I think his stock has gone up huge since the draft. If the Cubs had taken him at #6 last year, I don't think there would have been many happy campers at nsbb, at the time, after he hit only .322 last spring and struck out fairly much for a college bat. But OPSing over 1.000, while making it up to AA last summer, has more than recovered his status. Was a case where his stock entering the spring was higher than by draft time. Buxton was a big prospect entering, but hit like 2 or 3 HR's all spring. Both, to me, were guys whose springs did not really solidify the big reps they had entering the spring. Raised more questions than they answered. Appel didn't help his stock either, I don't think. Some other popular pitchers were hurt. This year, and I know it's really early, Manea has been dog-paddling and Stanek has done some sinking. But Appel has really strengthened his case; Gray has of course elevated a ton; Frazier and Meadows are answering questions, not raising them. I guess I'm thinking that the reputation for the class entering last draft may have been better, and this one a lot worse; but my feeling was that there were a lot of disappointments with the potential studs last year, and this year the reputation seems to be going up rather than down. maybe I'm misremembering it all, but I thought at this point last year Almora was projected by a lot of the draftnicks as mid-first, nice but limited upside (limited power and speed). I may be crazy, but I'm much more intrigued with Appel and Gray right now than I was with Zimmer and Gaussman. And I think both Meadows and Frazier look more appealing certainly than Almora did by most accounts, or Correa or Buxton. (Despite Buxton's tools). I also kinda think that Almora's stock has gone up since 12 months ago. After the draft and a year of buzz, now we perceive him really favorably. But during the draft spring I sure got the feeling that a lot of analysts, and posters, saw him more as a safe, conservative pick but without huge tools or huge potential.

Nice, thanks. Kind of fun to see some different names pop up. Penalver maybe cracked our top 40? Would be nice if he started to emerge as a genuine guy. Amaya, he seems to be getting increasing notice. Just as there were Amaya/Marco discussions in our top-20 discussion, they again get listed together here by Theo. While he was a sandwich pick, Blackburn has not tended to get much buzz. He struggled last summer, and Az Phil gave him some pretty low velocity evaluation. This seems to be at least the second comment this camp that he's looked good, so that's encouraging.

Rather unenthusiastic phrasing. Of course, Baez was written up as not having much projection either, since he was already pretty filled out. So I suppose that being literal, projection is essential only if your present skills are lacking. But if like Baez you already have the serious power, you don't need to project more. I suspect the Cubs may tend to value smoothness and present polish over projection and wow tools, to some degree. A year ago the reports on Almora at this point were not gushers; smooth and polished and smart, but neither his power nor his speed nor his arm were "wow" tools. Some think he has the swing to project solid 20-HR power, maybe 25. But I suspect it's more because they think he'll hit the ball than that his actual raw power projects well above average. Last summer, the report on de la Rosa were similar: scouted as a good, alert player, but didn't project big power or SS tools or speed. Maybe you get a .300 hitter with 15-18 HR power who plays a polished 2B, but no chance at a HR title. I wonder if Torres isn't more along the Almora/de la Rosa style, and if that isn't more the style of player the Cubs like?

I've wondered about that too, Dave. That wold be nice. Several things that dampen my expectation: 1. Last year was very soft on top. Would Correa be in the top five this year? Or Zunnina? I think the top is much stronger 2. Cubs were a strong superslot then, when we thought they could have leverage to slot or less. 3. I think they are strongly committed to getting BPA at #2. May see this as a once in a lifetime opportunity, and they aren't going to pass on their top guy in order to save a million for round 2. (If they are really sold on Appel, I'd not be surprised to see them preoffer a superslot, in hopes Boras uses that to turn Houston off. To some degree I think that's how it worked with Almora last draft.) But, it does seem the possibility of saving money is there. Slot drops by $1 each step from 1-2-3. When you call a guy with the 2nd pick, "If we pick you, do you want to sign for slot or maybe 5% below slot? Or would you prefer that we pass and take Manea?" It's pretty hard for the guy to say no. The drop in slot is so sharp that it's hard for the teams behind to meet or beat your slot. Just slot-signing and then using the overslot on round 2 should get you somebody you'd rated in your top 20, since there's always somebody you like better than other teams that slips. (Pierce Johnson, for example.).

I'm not very hip. What does that mean?

Not sure. But if 3 is median, in the uncertain world of probabilities that gives a pretty meaningful possibility that you might get 4. If we had four good rotation starters with very good arms by next July, that would be quite a jump from what we have now, or what we had last year. It's possible. In terms of health, I think the median would be five healthy. (maybe 4.7, or something nearer 5 than 4). Obviously being healthy and being "good" are not the same. Vizcaino might have his arm strength back, for example, but that hardly means he'll have the control.

Vizcaino is the only presently sore-armed prospect I mentioned, and Garza is the only presently-injured vet of the 7 good-armed guys I mentioned (Samardz/Jackson/Garza/Vizcaino/draftee/Johnson/Paniagua). I'm not assuming 5-7 of those 7 will look good in July 2014. But right now we've got two good arms (Samardz and Jackson) and 3 filler spots. I think it's reasonable/plausible that by July 2014, we might have four of those seven guys healthy enough and advanced enough to be in the rotation, and need only one filler guy. I'm not assuming it will work out. All seven might be injured by then, or all of those that aren't might be wild and performing poorly. But there's at least a reasonable plausible possibility (possibility, not expectation) that we could have good arms than fillers in the rotation by next summer.

It's fun to think about how quickly the pitching staff could change, if health permits and things go right. Baez, soler, Almora, they are exciting but they are probably some distance away from breaking in, and perhaps longer before being really good. But pitchers are often as good or better as rookies as they are later. It's not at all implausible that by August 2015, that Gray or Appel would be ready to join Samardz and Jackson. In the off chance that Garza actually gets and stays healthy, I don't expect his trade value is going to be too hot, so I think there's a fair chance the Cubs will end up resigning him. So I could well imagine Samardz, Jackson, Garza, and Gray by next summer. Pierce Johnson should be ready by then also, if things go right. He'll start at Daytona, so if he's good he'll get up to AA this summer, and be able to start with Gray/Appel at AA next April (health and performance permitting, of course.) If Vizcaino is to make it back, he should be ready by next summer as well. And if Paniagua is ready to start this year at Daytona, in the even he ever gets his visa stuff worked out, anybody who's starting at A+ one spring is fairly likely to be big-league ready by the following August if things go well. Obviously everything isn't going to go well for all of Vizcaino, Paniagua, Johnson, Garza, and #2 pick. But there is some volume that could transform the talent level of the rotation before 2014 is done. It's getting the hitters fixed that's going to take longer.

That's not entirely accurate these days with the early signing deadline. Cole and Hultzen didn't pitch in 2011 but not only did Bauer and Sonny Gray pitch, they both got up to AA in the year they were drafted. Last summer, both Gausman and Zimmer ended up pitching in the minors, as did our very own Pierce Johnson. True. Hyperbole on my part. Cole and Hultzen didn't pitch. Sonny Gray pitched 20 innings. Our own Pierce Johnson pitched 11. Trevor Bauer pitched 26. So they might pitch a little; but either none at all or not much. 10-20 innings this August I don't think makes much difference developmentally. Although I suppose that even 20 innings might be meaningful for schedule; if a guy pitches 20 innings in A+ or AA, and looks good, that might be the baseline so that it's easier to assign him straight to AA next April. Mark Prior didn't pitch at all, but then was assigned straight to AA his first spring. By summer he was called up. That's kind of how I'm seeing it: with Gray and Appel, whether they pitch a bit this August or not, I'd expect they'd start next spring in AA. And if they pitch well, I expect they'd be up sometime next summer. If they don't pitch very well, of course, perhaps not. And it might not be out of the question that Gray might be started in daytona rather than AA, if he didn't pitch at all this summer. If either struggles some in AA, of course they might not get called up next summer. Given that Gray and Appel seem to be throwing 9-inning games and throwing 100+ pitches every FRiday, and given that both are on good teams that might stay in the playoffs for a while, my guess is the Cubs wouldn't actually pitch either one this summer. With Appel having Boras, he's not likely to sign very fast, so he might be especially unlikely to have the time to sign and get stretched out again enough to actually pitch in games.

Good point. Seems unusual in that most of the big-name guys coming in are playing at or above their hype, and others are emerging. Usually a bunch of the touted guys don't necessarily perform. Zunina last year wasn't stellar; from days past, Bobby Brownlie comes to mind. But thus far it seems that with a few exceptions, most of the big names are performing at or above expectation. Stanek is the one sinker, and obviously Manea hasn't helped himself. But Appel has elevated enormously, from good-arm-but-where's-the-results guy to a guy whose production and K/BB stats look great. Gray has obviously gone crazy. Bryant has gone crazy. Frazier has gone nuts, and Meadows is doing well. Last year Buxton came in with huge rep, and still went #2; but he hit about 2 HR's all spring. I think the strength at the top looks very good, and the depth through 42 as well.

No. I think his numbers look better than his scouting potential, and that scouting-wise there must not be big-league arm/stuff. They've got him with the A-ball group, so this will be his 4th year in A-ball. That's not usually what teams do with big-league prospects. The thing that stands out with his numbers is his high HR-rate. 29 HR in 225 full-season innings is very bad, since guys don't hit that many HR's in A-ball. Whether that's a fastball that is lacking (movement, speed, location), or a breaking ball that hangs too often, who knows.

Friend watched the Gray game, was really impressed. Ranked him as the best of the college pitchers. Said stuff was fantastic, overpowering velocity, great command, said he was throwing his slider for strikes like it was nothing, and threw a lot of dynamite changeups. Also said he had big-league mound presence, didn't get upset when the ump blew some calls, or when defense messed up. With his 3-pitch repertoire and his great command, it won't take him long. College picks this draft won't pitch this summer. But with his command, he might be on a kind of Prior-type schedule. As with any pitcher, who knows how long he'll last. And as with any pitcher, who knows how it will be on 5-day rotation versus the 7-day college schedule. But I'd guess he's moving away from Manea. And that if the Cubs really want a college pitcher, and are willing to live with the injuries and short careers that come with the territory, they'll have a very good one available.

I feel the same for Alcantara. He's 21, he's played only half a season at Daytona. His defense is extremely raw (0.42 errors per game), his plate discipline is very raw (5%), his overall offense was good but not great (.786 OPS). His previous season his OPS was only .655. So I'd like to see him show better defense, better plate discipline, show he can sustain his offense, and show better offense. It's not like .786 OPS is such compelling offensive profile that he's not challenged there, or so overwhelming that it commands a promotion even if his plate discipline and error-defense is raw and lousy. Baseball is a different sort of deal, I realize, but there could be some targets set: reduce your error-rate below 0.30/game; get your walk rate up over 7%; and get your OPS up over .800. Do that and sustain that for at least a month, and welcome to Tennessee. I guess for a player as young and raw as Alcantara, promoting him after only 71 games at a level seems like kind of a rush. But, Baez is coming, so lesser prospects need to get out of the way. That might mean Tennessee for Alcantara. I could also easily see Alcantara and Baez flipping leagues mid-season, once Baez is ready for AA. Unless Alcantara is performing pretty well at AA, he might get sent back down, kind of like happened with Marco Hernandez last summer.

I agree. DeVoss is a very fringy prospect. He can't play big-league defense at 2B. He's just minor-league roster filler probably, maybe a shot to become a 25th man OFer/emergency 2B. He should be a non-factor in the Daytona 2B puzzle. Whether you get him away from Daytona 2B by sticking him at Tenn, Kane, or Daytona OF, wherever you need a body. I agree that Torreyes is meaningful and what's best for his development is where he should be. I'd like to see him improve or sustain some success at Daytona. But, I do think his gift for contact and his greater experience at Daytona makes him probably the least likely to get killed by AA pitching.

Other interesting note from Phil's list is that Underwood and Blackburn are both with short-season group.

2B clutter. Torreyes, Bruno, Saunders, Amaya, DeVoss, that's 5 second-basemen who all belong in full-season A-ball. Add in Baez and Alcantara, who can't both play SS for Daytona at the same time, and who are both serious prospects to play 2B beside Castro someday. Thoughts: 1. DeVoss to OF. *He's not nearly in class with the other guys defensively at 2B, and Daytona is thin in outfielders. I imagine his 2B days are probably over. 2. Move some guy(s) to AA? Who? *Torreyes, Alcantara, and Saunders all could. I think that's rushing each one and could be counterproductive developmentally. But, maybe it's developmentally better to play regularly than to to sit. *I'd least mind moving Saunders. He's the oldest and the weakest prospect. Challenging him with a "prove it or lose it" might work. If he still hits in AA, then you know you've got something. And if he can't, then nothing is lost. *Torreyes might be best qualified as a hitter. If he did go AA and post a serious OBP at AA, his reputation and status could grow fast. (Not a lot of 20-year-olds in AA with .350+ OBP.....) But he's a significant prospect, and I don't want his development compromised. *Alcantara is the most raw, both as hitter and fielder. But if they want him and Baez to both play SS, rushing him to AA may be unfortunate but perhaps necessary. 3. Move guys to 3B? *Any 2B ought to be movable to 3B, whether or not they have the arm or the power to play 3B in the majors. Bruno, Saunders, Alcantara, Torreyes, I can see any or all of them getting some 3B time. *Some of these guys might make it as utility major leaguers rather than starters. Getting experience at 3b could help prepare them. *If playing 3B gets them on the field so they can get their AB's, that's worthwhile. *I'm imagining Bruno being especially likely to play 3B? *Baez or Alcantara. Both certainly have big-time 3B arms. With Castro at SS, getting some practice at 3b may be more than just necessary way to both play at once, it may be a very helpful training for one or both. 4. Move to OF? *Maybe not just DeVoss. Could Bruno play a lot in OF? 5. Hold somebody at Kane. *Bruno's bat may be qualified for Daytona, but since Kane would still be a normal promotion, putting him at Kane might be the least insulting. One or several from the Baez/Alcantara/Torreyes/Saunders class might get promoted to AA later on, so starting at Kane based on Daytona clutter might set up for a promotion to Daytona later. *Saunders could perhaps go to Kane also. 32nd rounders kinda go where they can fit, and defer to the top prospects. *Amaya is pretty much the man at 2b for Kane, with Marco at SS. So if Bruno or Saunders do stay at Kane due to the Daytona clutter, they will still need to play utility/outfield. 6. Amaya is perhaps emerging as the best of the 5 second base prospects, given the size and power advantage that he has relative to Torreyes. I think he's pretty much locked in as the every-day 2B at Kane.

McLeod is a very positive guy. Saying a guy "should have been drafted much higher", when he was drafted 32nd round, might mean he should've been drafted in the teens, or maybe in the Bruno type area of the draft. Not quite like saying "he's a first round talent. Still, it's fun to read some positive comments about him. As McLeod says, we'll see how he does this season. If he's very good in Daytona, he becomes a little interesting. He whiffed fairly often and walked not a lot. Something will probably need to be more impressive hitting-wise to sustain. Probably something in the walks/power/K's domains will need to step up some.

I assume you're doing "best" as in guys who ended up best players, not the most impressive scouting choices. Joe Carter was like the #2 or #3 pick in his draft, so that was kind of like Mark Prior, don't miss there. Lee Smith was a good pick, 2nd round I think. One pick who could have been a great non-obvious pick was Kyle Farnsworth. He was drafted really late, and ended up with pretty elite talent. If he'd had more brains, self-discipline, and better work habits, I wonder how good he might have been able to become? Heh, we're also in the world of guys who actually signed. Tim Lincecum might be one of the best picks...

nice catch, Dave. Conway hadn't been listed on Phil's previous report, either. Not sure what that means. Maybe they're healthy enough to do bunting drills or practice covering 1B, who knows. I'm guessing the odds are like 0% that Conway is going to be pitching for serious right now. But maybe he's advanced enough to be allowed to throw from the mound already?

So, I mention Burke, and there he shows up on Az Phil's "inactive" list today. Maybe all those innings last year did wreck his arm.

AJ Morris Jokisch Loosen Morris had WHIP under 1, extreme groundball, extreme anti-HR (1 HR in 52 innings), low walks, and solid K-rate. His pre-surgery profile was generally similar. When HR/BB/K are outstanding/excellent/good, that's a winning profile. He's old, but his age is result of surgery and college, not the result of inadequate talent. The talent was appealing enough so that the Cubs traded for him, in the hopes that if he bounced back from the surgery his talent would make him worth the wait. That may be what's happening. He's got a chance to emerge as a pleasant and meaningful surprise this season. Which reminds me of Kyler Burke. Another guy who's old, not because of inadequate talent. Remember how much interest there was in him, and his supposedly 1st-round lefty arm that could touch 96? Last year was his first full year pitching, he faded in daytona, his velocity didn't hold up, and his slider was inconsistent. I wonder if, having now gone through a full season, he might not be an interesting breakout candidate? Perhaps he'll be able to hold his velocity longer into the season; or he'll move to relief and be able to throw harder there; and perhaps his slider will be tinkered up and will become more consistent? Still has a good chance to work out as a useful major league pitcher. Loosen had a lot of K's, and BA's sources liked him. I think his stuff may be underrated. Jokisch's stuff is definitely underrated.

Smooth day for Jackson. Baez/Soler 0-8.

Sure. Only, at half the price, 5 years older, RH instead of LH, and even less scouting enthusiasm, he seems like a much longer shot than Concepcion. But, that's the game I guess. You take your shots, and usually miss. Hopefully once in a while a shot hits and makes it worth it.