craig

Relief is always a fallback. But the Cubs definitely drafted him with the intent that he'll be a quality starter. They see him as a high floor with a good ceiling. Plus change, plus fastball, good control, the ceiling will depend on integrating the cutter and developing the breaking ball.

Great post, I agree with absolutely everything you wrote here. The 95 stuff, that's fine and good, and hopefully it will mean that he's got a very useful/effective fastball. But every half-decent prospect has touched 95 with a straight-ball. If you're working velocity is 88-92, with 2-seamers that do something useful, of course you can hit 95 with a straight 4-seamer. So I completely agree that we shouldn't get it in our head that he's a power lefty, and then be disappointed and fault the scouts when in fact he's anything but that. I also agree that it seemed a disappointing pick. I always figure that at 41, there should be somebody on the top-25 of your board who slipped, because you value players differently, or for signability, or whatever. Last year, for example, Johnson came across as a guy who was scouted as a mid-first round talent..... if he could stay healthy. Underwood had 1st round upside.... if he could put it together. So Z certainly doesn't come across as having that kind of high talent. But this Cub scouting system has a bunch of intelligent, thoughtful guys. I trust they know what they're doing and made a thoughtful pick here. Z is a fairly young junior (just turned 21 at end of March). Perhaps some of the velocity pickup is real, not that rare when a kid is 20/21, or mechanical. He sounds like a smart guy, and most importantly he throws strikes, so I assume he'll learn and adapt and perhaps get the best out of his abilities. The general scouting seems to be that he doesn't have much of a breaking ball. I assume the Cubs think the potential for a useful breaking ball is there, and I assume as with any lefty that he'll need to learn a cutter. The ratio of stars selected at 41 is super small. If they can get stronger-armed version of Travis Wood, it can be a good-value pick. Heh, in other words I'm an optimist, I trust that the thinking is sound, and I assume the guy has a chance to be a good solid major-league pitcher.

I have no idea. But, if the Cubs take Gray, I'll be great with that. I'll immediately conclude that they weren't worried about the Adderal; that they've done their research and due diligence, and that if they aren't worried about it I won't be worried either. In which case I'll be super thrilled at the idea of adding a control artist with a great slider, who happens to throw a 100-mph fastball as a second pitch. And who'll be willing to sign sub-slot to some degree, such that tomorrow should be a super fun day as well. And if the Cubs don't take Gray, fine.

Vogelbach slips past .800 OPS.

Unfortunately it says something about the lack of safety with Bryant if we see him as even less safe than an injury-vulnereable pitcher.

I think that's pretty reasonable, Kyle. Everything gets tougher. I think it's more likely than not that CV would project to the .603-OPS guy you've got, rather than a .700+ guy. But, not everybody follows normal trajectory. Hopefully he'll be one whose improvement outpaces the levels, and is able to hang in the mid-.700's.

Huh? I kind of see what he's saying. By most accounts a major reason they took Almora was for his attitude/character. They want a bit of rah rah hard working types. They could view a guy shooting up the rankings with at least a little help from foreign substances as not only a risk for future suspensions and a career that doesn't wind up as well as you'd think if forced to work clean, but also just a character risk in general. I get the thinking. I also get that Theo didn't go out of his way to avoid or stop users in Boston. By some accounts Gray is a "warrior" who's really into baseball and winning, whereas Appel is a bit more cool. It may be that Gray's attitude/character might be as or more desirable, more focused on baseball and winning. So it's possible that Cubs might actually like Gray's attitude as well or better. Or not. If they take him, I'm sure we'll be told how much they like his stuff, how much they like his work habits and his baseball attitude, and that the meds didn't matter. Assuming they don't (I don't think they'll take him), we'll never be told why. My guess is that the meds haven't really reduced his baseball potential by much. If they take somebody else, it's because they really like the other guy.

Agree. Johnson, everything was different. He signed really fast, I think he signed within a week or so. So he could have been pitching by July 1st if they'd wanted him too. Plus he'd not pitched many innings due to his injury, so his arm wasn't carrying the pitch counts that Gray and Appel have. But with his health questions of course they were especially careful. I doubt the #2 pick, especially assuming it's Boras (Appel and Bryant are both Boras boys, right?) is going to settle very quickly. So I doubt the Cubs will be controlling them by June 20 as was true for Johnson.

First two picks, no, BPA, and preference to player if BPA permits. I'll be surprised if picks 1 and 2 are both pitchers. But round 3-20, I expect huge focus on pitchers and catchers.

Yes. I think the Cubs would figure that he's thrown so many pitches this spring that they won't want him throwing much more. Or if it does, it will probably not exceed one or two dozen innings, and if so only some of those in full-season. If the over/under was 20 innings in full-season, I'd definitely take the under. AFter going hard for four months, he'll get a month off. He'll sign in July, after which rest they'll want to be careful about stretching his arm out. It takes a week or so to move and go through all of the orientation-to-the-organization activities, so probably mid-July before he'd likely be tossing from a Mesa mound. Two more weeks of "spring-training" before rookie league. So August is basically all he'd have, and that probably building up from 30-30-45-45-60 pitch counts. Several of those probably in Mesa/Boise. So if Daytona, probably only be 3 or 4 starts max, on reduced pitch counts. Good chance they won't think that's worth it, and will just shut him down for the summer, and work with him in fall instrux away from all the media attention.

Thanks, TT. That's a pretty strong swing. *The 28K-17K is a big improvement. Villa's been kind of a risky-K guy for a while. If he could be stabilizing at 17%, his chances go way up, IMO. *He's got 5 HR's now, I'm assuming that at least four of them, perhaps all 5, are in the "good" package? 4 extra HR's per 100PA are worth 40 points BA/OBP and 200 points OPS. I don't expect that he's going to be 4-5 HR/month guy, but those months will always help the stats. Will be interesting to see how things play out. Would be fun if he really could keep elevating, reach .800, and stay there or above. Continuing to find some HR's would make that a lot more likely. April is routinely a bad month for hitters. I do wonder whether part of it is the BB thing. Wouldn't surprise if CV was trying to work the count some in April, but since he's really a hacker and doesn't really have a very good eye at the plate, that was doing more harm than good.

He's a plus defender. Yes, power is probably the biggest concern with him. I think hitting in general is my biggest concern. He's hitting .265 this year, and hit .250 at Daytona. He's got 45K/13BB/196 AB, and had over 100K's last year, so he's kind of a high-K-low-walk guy. They can say line-drive swing, but it's not like he's a notably good contact hitter. He hit 17 HR two years ago, 14 last year, 5 in 53 games so far, and he hit a bunch in camp, so his power seems fine. Nothing great, but not a liability, I don't think.

I don't think so. The ball comes faster at 3rd, the body/throwing angle on choppers and bunts is quite different, the length of throw is different, the time to throw is different, and the sight-line on pitches is significantly different so it's harder to get a good jump on a ball. If they think he might someday become able to play good 3B defense, then put him at 3B and let him try.

Do you feel that Ha isn't capable of playing at center? Or did you just overlook him?... I think Ha has a chance. I think Szczur has a chance. I think Jackson has a chance. I think Lake could have a chance. I don't think any of those has a great chance, or a chance to be great. Ha: I like Ha, I'm not sure how good he is but I have hopes that he's very good defensively. I assume he could be better than DeJesus defensively. Ha's offense is limited in that he's shown very little power, and he K's a lot. I don't know how long he'll be injured this year. He has an .811 OPS this year, but that's in 25 games with a .387 BABIP that I don't expect to last. Last season he was .737. At 22 he's got time to get better, and if he does he could become a pretty good player. But he's got two big steps up. He's got a chance, but it won't surprise if he doesn't succeed. Szczur: He's 23, almost 24, so more than a year older than Ha. He's running a .741 OPS, after .751-overall last year, and he has no power. As with Ha, I'm not sure how good he is defensively but I hope that he's got very good CF ability, certainly more than DeJesus has. He's .359 OBP this year. If he could play excellent defense and be a .360-OBP type guy, he could be a pretty useful player. He could improve some, he's got a chance, but again it won't surprise if he doesn't succeed. Jackson: We all know his deal. He'd need to improve a whole lot, and perhaps he's still got a chance to adjust and make it work. Maybe premature to say he doesn't have a chance. But certainly it would be a much bigger surprise if he improves and succeeds than if he doesn't. Lake: No evidence that he has any defensive instincts, but the gross speed/arm tools are present. With no evidence of any kind yet, there is no evidence to prove that he couldn't end up being capable defensively, and perhaps really good. He had .773-OPS last year at age 22, and has shown some signs of progress offensively. He could improve some, he's got a chance, but again it won't surprise if he doesn't succeed. None are safe or compelling CF prospects. Probably Lake is the only one with a very high ceiling, since he's got much more power potential than Ha or Szczur. All of them have a chance, at least if Lake is given a chance in OF. Hopefully one (or more) of them will improve and break out and establish himself as a good major-leaguer. For Lake I think HR's and power are essential; I doubt he's ever going to be a consistent contact hitter. But he only hit 10 HR's last year, and slugged .432 and .434 the last two seasons, so it's not like he's been that much of a slugger thus far. But there may be some untapped potential.

I voted Gray, because he seems the one capable of being a superstar/extraordinary. But I have no idea, and I'm very comfortable trusting whatever management decides. If they go Frazier, I'm good with that. If they choose Bryant, I'll totally trust that a lot of guys way smarter than me who spent zillions of hours studying it out will have made an intelligent decision. But ignorantly and subjectively, I think Appel can be good, but I'm not presently optimistic about being great. I think Bryant is the safest and perhaps the best pick, but he's going to K too much to become amazing, I think. On timeline, I really don't see Gray being much behind Appel. Because he's junior not senior, I suppose politically it's easier to start him lower. And maybe he's a little behind. But to me both seem to be pretty far along control-wise, and I don't see much reason why Gray couldn't start in AA next year and be up late next summer, if things go well. Particularly if he pitches a couple of good starts in A+ this summer (although I doubt either guy will pitch this summer if we draft one). On Bryant, I'm not that concerned about the 3B/OF thing. If they think he can hit, take him; if not, don't. If you believe he's going to be hitting 30+ HR's and taking 80 walks a year, I'll take him. (I see him as maybe a Derrek Lee type guy). I have no concerns about his potential to play corner outfield, including RF given his strong arm. I'd almost rather take him for OF and don't look back, rather than constantly wondering/worrying about whether he can play decent 3B, how long will he be able to stay, is his bat good enough to justify his defense, etc.. I'm not sure I want an Aram-type 3B, where we're always wondering about how much value he costs us. Or Vitters coming through, is he good enough or not? I'd like to assemble an infield where 1B/2B/3B are all solid defensively, and where the question of "how far below-average is too far to tolerate?" is not a question we need to think about all the time. Heh, plus Baez is going to improve his hitting a bunch and become a major leaguer, and play a good 3b for us eventually. While Alcantara is OPS'ing at .800+ at 2b. Is there any doubt? :)

Thanks. Will be interesting how they use him. With Jackson struggling (until yesterday), DeJesus getting no younger, and Almora still years away at best, CF would seem to still be an open position. Well, really all outfield positions. For Lake, I think the power is the key. He's going to whiff a lot, and walk little. But if he could hit enough HR's, he could be usable. His speed and arm would theoretically make his well-tooled for CF/RF. Of course, that also seemed true when Soriano signed and began in CF, so speed/arm/"athleticism" obviously doesn't always sum up to good OF defense.

Has Lake been in center in all his rehab games? Do you think he's just moved to OF, or what? I hope so, myself. I just don't believe he'll ever be adequate in the infield. Too big for SS, and he's been such a prolific error-maker for so many year, I just don't believe that's ever going to improve enough. Obviously not likely that he'll hit enough for OF, but that's more likely than that he'll play good 3B. Heh, speaking of 3B, I noted that Mike Olt, who many posters were really sold on, has a .591 OPS with 39K/89AB. Ouch.

I'd think Vogelbach is well behind Alcantara at this point, unless he starts mashing. Vogelbach's only a year younger, two levels behind, has a sub-.800 OPS, and is a DH/1B. Vogelbach's got no shot at top-100 status with the level of production he's shown thus far. Now many 20-year-old low-A .794-OPS 1B/DH guys making the top 100.

Geiger's a weird case. I suspect he's due for a slump and his numbers will drop a bunch, kind of like two years ago when Justin Bour was so great at Daytona for a couple of months. But, I also wonder whether he might not be due for a hot streak that could make his numbers look even better. Last year he hit 17 HR's in 75 games, but my recall is that he had a couple of flurries, weeks in which he hit 5 HR's in a week. For a guy who hit 17 in 75 games last year, having only 6 thus far this year seems kinda low. If he had an extra 4 HR's on his record, he'd be up around .950 OPS or something like that. His profile is radically different. He had 79K/20BB/17HR/303 AB; this year it's 33K/21BB/6HR/197 AB. So his K-rate is not even 2/3 of last year. Probably why his HR rate is barely 50% of what it was last year. Still, pretty rare to have a guy drop his K-rate that dramatically. If he could recover more/most of his HR rate from last year, while keeping the K/BB/AB rates he's shown this year, he might look pretty interesting.

I've been well behind the curve on Alcantara, but yes he's certainly looking interesting. Certainly being #5 would make sense, behind Soler/Almora/Baez and Johnson maybe? One could perhaps make an argument for #4, ahead of Johnson. His stats indeed look very much like Baez, although Baez has 23 doubles/triples to 12 for AA. Heh heh, and of course 49/20 K/BB versus 56/9. I worry a ton about Baez's K-rate, and I'm not alone. But there seems to be too little concern about Alcantara's K-rate. 49K/199AB is kinda high, I think. Not quite like Brett Jackson had in AA, and not quite like Baez has this year, but I'd think a lot of guys who K that often in AA have a lot of problems against the better movement in the majors. He's only 21, so he's got time to get better. And if he could improve enough to carry his current numbers up to the majors, it would be awesome. Who wouldn't love an .832-OPS middle infielder with speed and strong defensive tools, if he could get a handle on his errors? While Alcantara's numbers look very similar to Baez's, I wonder how we'd feel if Baez didn't improve his numbers. If he stepped to AA next year, and produced .832-.841 OPS, would we be relieved/thrilled that he'd held up to AA? Or disappointed that he hadn't stepped up further into more studly range?

Yeah, .284/.346/.448/.794 isn't really that great of a line for a DH-1B type and who isn't young for a top prospect in low-A. He needs to be more than a .448-slugger. There's nothing worrisome in his splits or in any scouting reports on his hitting. And nothing flukish about his BABIP (.310 or something like that?) Seems his scouting is not as a slugger, scouting always emphasize line-drive whole-field approach. But at some point I think he's going to need to somehow learn to get a little more loft on his balls so that he gets more HR's. Being line-drive has it's plusses, and hard line-drive HR's are fun to watch. But if he's going to make it, he's going to need to increase his productive power somehow. If some of the hard-hit line-drive singles and line-outs got a little more lift and turned into HR's, that would help a lot. I kind of have the feeling he's due for a hot week, though. A good hot streak could make those nothing-special stats look a lot more interesting.

Daytona hasn't been able to hold it's 7-1 lead. Suarez is up from XST, walks 4 in his inning. Soler has scored 4 runs. For Kane, Reggie Golden got his first hit. Almora playing, 0-4 thus far.

Yes. It looks somewhat doubtful that he's going to be the superstar .950-OPS gold-glove SS, and it's still possible that he'll never make it. But there's still a very huge chance that he'll up somewhere in the huge landscape in between. Right now he's a .306-OBP guy with enough slugging to be high .700's OPS. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he made the majors being that same general kind of guy: somebody who falls in the .750-.800 OPS range, with a low OBP. Suppose, hypothetically, he matures into a .270/.310/.770 guy in the majors. With good defense, that makes a good 2B/SS; an average LF that a good team might like to upgrade; and with 70 errors (or 30..) a guy even the worst team is trying to replace.

I get your point, and it's clear that his arm is fine for SS. But, I think scouts are routinely thinking about what might be, **conditional on a player improving**. I doubt any of the scouts who were thinking favorably about Baez at SS would have predicted he'd have 25 errors in May. SS's are involved in a lot of plays and make a ton of hurried and off-balance throws from all kinds of angles and distances. There's a matter of consistency and concentration required that goes beyond arm/range/hands tools. It's not clear that Baez is showing appropriate progress, or any progress at all, in the areas of consistency and concentration. At some point, he'll need to get a LOT better, or find a new spot.

Yes. If the errors were based on infield and 1B, the other guys should suffer accordingly. Baez has 25/46 errors/games, Saunders 3/35, Carhart 4/47. So I think it really is Baez more than Geiger or the infield. So I think the K/BB/errors are all serious concerns.