craig

thanks, cal. And anything over $10K, counts. I'd guess the $683 would get spent out on a dozen $50K type guys or something like that, more or less? Or perhaps already has? But, I could also imagine the Cubs feeling like they had scouted and wanted Serrano, and had a good relationship; **if** their info is at all indicative that the Mexican thing might get resolved, I could see them maybe wanting to hold $300K (or more) and still resign Serrano. It occurs to me that the new fixed-cap-without-penalty-box probably isn't that optimal for a lot of the guys who used to be picking up $300K deals. There were always a handful of penalty teams with a bunch of millions who were looking to sign a dozen $300K guys each. But now with nobody capped to $300, I wonder if most teams will focus on a handful of big tickets, and other guys will be looking at ≤$100K deals?

You guys have probably already detailed this, but have the Cubs already spent this, and everything else? Or based on your tracking of the big-ticket spendings, does this $300K plus some other unspent $$ perhaps give the Cubs some discretionary cash to still get some guy(s), whether serrano himself or somebody else? Also, what has been the timing on all of this? I assume BA is reporting it now, but mlb and the Cubs knew about this before July, so that the Cubs had already factored the $300K into signings they have already made?

18-year-old Cruz with another excellent ASL game, 5-1-0-1-6

Have you guys gotten any updated scouting info on Keegan Thompson? His outing drops his AA and composite season ERA's below 3. Over his last 8 starts, 5 have been shutout outings. 5 earned runs spread out over 8 starts is pretty good work. Thompson, Rucker, and Swarmer have been in a pretty outstanding collective groove.

Keegan T might also fall in that not-much-stuff but has been competitive in AA. 2.91 over last 10 starts, 3.03 at AA, 3.13 on season. Think he's been making some adjustments in how he works. Seemed to come out as a throw-strikes/challenge guy (13 walks in 68 Myrtle innings). But at Tenn, he's ~ doubled his walk rate (16 walks in 39 innings), while reducing the HR's. May be coincidence. But I wonder if he's taken a more Lester/Quintana approach, where you'd rather nibble and walk a guy than give him a fat pitch on 3-1? Obviously he's got to really locate, because his stuff seems average or below-average. But results have been good, and maybe there is still improvement ahead for him?

Thanks, cal, those are all really good points. Agree on all. Rucker has a 2.72 ERA over last 10 starts. Had a poor April, but from May on, his ERA is a hair under 3.0. Not sure if his stuff could ever translate to the majors, he's got the two hardest steps left (PCL is a tough step, and the step to the majors is biggest of all.) Totally possible that he's just kind of like Farrell, a blah-stuff guy who depends on throwing strikes to bad hitters. Think sometimes those guys can get killed in the majors; in minors can get away with throwing not-great fastballs for strikes, and not getting killed because the hitters are bad. (Look at the collection of bad hitters Tennessee has...) But then in majors some of those fastball strikes are getting smoked, so you nibble more, and instead of working 1-2 counts and getting guys to chase on minor-league curve, you're working 2-1 counts and big-league hitters don't chase so now you're 3-1, etc.. But it would be nice if a control guy like Rucker was able to be decent as a 6th/7th starter, so you don't need to be turning to Tseng or Farrell when you've got a spot start. Same for Swarmer. 2.91 ERA on the year, 1.1 WHIP, 114K/17BB is pretty good. 3.27 over last 10 starts at Tennessee, 2.63 over last 7 starts, 37K/3BB over last 6 starts (34.2 IP). Those are some pretty nice numbers. (obviously chosen subsequent to his last lousy game.) Again, not sure if his stuff or effectiveness will carry up very well. But would sure be fun to have some rotation options next July. Think a lot of the big-league rotation has been worked pretty heavily. Would be nice to have an Iowa option, and give a guy like Lester All Star break off, then skip a start after, so that he could kinda get a two-week break to refresh his arm. Or same for Quintana. I'm not asking for top prospects here. Just some guys who, given the advantage of being unfamiliar to opposing hitters, could give 4-5 competitive innings and it wasn't a Farrell-like fillin.

7th round overslot Artis is finally back tonight. Two walks and two runs thus far, still 0-3 on the season.

When did Estrada have TJ?

I've never read "plus raw power" in the future for Brennen Davis in any scouting report. He is super athletic and 6'4", but he's a skinny dude. He's listed at 175 lbs. right now. He might develop power down the road, but I'd rather he just focus on making contact. I know I saw that in one of the draft reports, too. Obviously it's projection, a "possible" thing. But there are lots of guys who fill out and become a lot stronger and physically more mature by age 23 than what they were at 18. There aren't that many 175-pound 6'4" guys at age 23. So it's not inconceivable that he'll grow into significantly more batting-practice power over the next few years. Not sure it's "probable" that he'll grow into excellent real-game power, but it isn't impossible. (Well, I am sure: it isn't "probable", even if it is variably possible to have good or decent power.) Obviously the Cubs spend a 2nd-round pick assuming he's going to grow into more than LaStella or Hendricks/Quintana power. Like pretty much everything else with his game, something to track over time.

Believe this was first game Davis has played in the field.

I'd say no, although I don't care and view the "breakout" question and "new skills" as irrelevant. Uncommon for any player to turn up with "NEW" skills. Usually some kind of continuum. Reduce your errors; get somewhat stronger with somewhat more power; mature some and get somewhat faster; get your release point somewhat more consistent and add some velocity consistency with breaking ball. Sometimes there is a "new skill", I guess; a pitcher tinkers and suddenly finds a new grip, so suddenly adds a splitter or a cutter or a sharper slider, and it changes everything abruptly. But for most guys, it's a developmental continuum, and that appears to be Marquez too. Or, perhaps as Cubswin notes, the fastball velocity is a "new skill" and a breakout. Lefties who throw 89-93, those are abundant, and only occasionally good. But lefties who consistently throw mid-90's and touch upper 90's, those are uncommon. Is that a "new skill"? One could say yes; or one could argue that's natural development for a tall maturing teenager. Still, the reported velocity jump is pretty dramatic. Every year the Cubs have dozens of young pitchers; every year baseball signs batches of internationals, every year the draft selects hundreds of tall HS pitchers. For every teenager we add, we hope a bunch more velocity will come with time and development. But very few guys actually do end up adding 5mph or end up throwing mid-to-upper 90's. He's in short-season with only 26 innings, 3 HR (not good), and a fair number of hits allowed. Good number on a healthy developmental trajectory. But want to see him continue to develop and excel in full-season, over more extended 70+ innings. If he does, we'll maybe say "Nothing breakout, I've been talking about him for several years, this is just an extension of what I've seen coming all along." "Perceived CEILING" is pretty high, higher than BOR. Mid-upper 90's, decent control. There are years to go to sharpen his breaking ball, develop his change, develop his cutter, and improve his location and command. The perceived "ceiling" is that he could hypothetically do all of those things, and perhaps end up being faster version of prime Quintana. Why not, that's "ceiling". Is it likely, of course not; but at age 19, which of us can know the future? The ceiling is excellent, *IF* the developmental continuum keeps rolling over the next handful of years. One can always look smart by saying "BOR", because very few 19-year-olds ever develop beyond that. But some do, and it can change the trajectory of a franchise. Odds are slim with Brailyn, because having the command and movement and offspeed stuff is just rare. But it's possible, and I'm going to hope for a while until/unless there is evidence to the contrary.

Brennan Davis back in the lineup, DH, leads off with K. Cole doubles in the first.

Herron 3-4. OBP up to .457, although not as good as Cole at .500 and Davis at .600. :) 2K in his 9 games. Weber 0-4 1K, his first game without multi-K.

Davis got taken out around the 7th inning.

Nice

Other than the stats, I think this is the only scouting info that was posted in the draft thread re Mort. There was also a note that he is "ultra-competitive". Sometimes average stuff with excellent control can do OK. And I guess it's not inconceivable that a kid can add a little bit after age 20, or upon conversion to relief. Think there's also a huge difference between guys who have 3-4 pitches but can't locate more than 1-2 if that and not even consistently, versus control/command guys who have 3-4 pitches and can locate them all. Not likely for Mort, but would love to see him do well. Kinda love the underdog story.

Mort with a good line, 4K/3IP, single and a walk. Tiny sample, but 8K/1BB/7IP, and a 5.0 GO/AO ratio in his three outings. Had really good numbers as a 20-year-old junior (8:1 K/BB), so he's still quite young. I don't recall reading much if any scouting info on him in draft threat. Is his fastball super-slow, awful? Or just mediocre? He's only 6'1", so probably not any velocity projection left for him. Probably as with all the average-if-that velocity guys from last year Abbott/Thompson/Uelman/Lange, Mort will presumably need to be proving it at every step. But it's kind of fun to track a young pitcher until at least he does hit the wall. Speaking of which, not-so-young pitcher Lacy had his first bad, might-he-be-hitting-his-wall game last night.

Man, what an exciting start. I know, premature and everything, but sometimes if you've got it you've got it. Draft thread, there were some questions about wisdom of the two HS kids, were they overdrafts, how low is the success rate with HS hitters, why didn't they shoot for higher ceiling, disappointment that they overslotted as far as they did for Cole at the expense of perhaps signing Parker, etc.. But man, if Roederer proves to be the real thing and has reasonable HR power physically, and Nico proves to be legit too, I don't care what happens with the other 30 guys they signed. **IF** you hit on Cole and Nico, any other value is just frosting.

Come on, it's not that bad. No, it is. It's that bad. 17 ABs, 12 Ks, 1 hit. A single. Walker improved to only 2 K's last night.

I'd been thinking exactly the same thing after checking box score and before popping over here. He's added a couple more K's in his 2nd and 3rd AB as well. 10K's in 14 AB, for the line-drive contact hitter that got full slot.

This is a thing with promoting young players really aggressively. If they do great while being really young, it's "Wow", and you know something is terrific. But if they stink, as Ademan has done, it's hard to evaluate. Does he stink because he doesn't have it and never will? Or can we excuse every failure because he's young? It's kind of nice for the player, in a way, in that it provides a built-in excuse for being very bad. As a fan, I'm not a fan of jumping leagues like they did with ademan, who wasn't very good at South Bend last year either (.269 there was a portent of his crumminess at Myrtle.) A guy is never too bored to improve and develop at whatever level he's assigned, if he's got any brains, and personally I'd rather see a guy show some success at one level before jumping him up to the next. As a fan, I'd like a guy to be not SO young for his league that no matter how badly he hits, he's just got the built-in excuse that "it's OK, he's young for his league." Slugging .306? It's OK, he's young, no problem. But, the Cubs are in Win Now mode, and *IF* Ademan had hypothetically been able to hit at Myrtle this year, then he'd have been a much stronger trade chip, so I can see how they might have wanted to roll the dice and hope he looked good enough to net them a useful pitcher this season. Not sure it matters much anyway. *IF* a guy has the talent to end up being a hitter, and he's got the psyche to optimize his game and to not get too messed up by extended failure, then I don't really think it makes much difference which level he's at. If he's eventually going to get good, he's going to figure it out regardless of where he's at, eventually, and he's going to experience whatever physical maturation sooner or later whether he's at Myrtle or South Bend or whatever. And if he's never actually going to have the rare amazingness to hit big-league pitching anyway, I doubt it's going to matter much whether he spent this year slugging .306 at Myrtle or had spent this year slugging .350 at South Bend. He is what he is, and he will become what he will become, promotion rate notwithstanding. Certainly he's got plenty of time to develop himself and become good, if that's in his potential. Willson was slugging .347 in the Northwest League when he was 19. Hoerner as an 18-year-old freshman didn't hit. What happens physically from age 19 to age 23 can be widely variant, so who knows what he'll become over the next couple of years.

Thanks. Yeah, that seems to be the same consistently slowish guy. Sounds like he'll need to be a good, finesse control guy. Which won't be easy to be on a consistent basis, given that he was never scouted as a control artist, and that the curve is about as hard a pitch to control as there is.

Well, looks like they spent all they could. Americaan is a JC guy, but he's not young. Full 21-year-old, just like a college junior would be, and he's older than many of our top-ten college guys (Hoerner, Richan, Weber, Roberts, ARtis, and MOrt are all either younger or not more than a week older than Americaan.

What do we know about Reindl? Does he have big-league potential, or would he just be an organizational filler even if he does sign?

That’s slot for the 56th or so pick. The FO clearly loves this kid. I'm always an optimist.... Think it's really exciting that the Cub scouts like the kid that much. Hopefully they'll be vindicated. Still ~$265K (plus Weber) for 3rd-day. Could probably hit ~$400K and 4th-round slot on somebody (Parker?) if they wanted to focus it all. Obviously depends on Weber and Thompson. Maybe they'll just end up signing both Boyd and Parker, and Reindl, and end up signing everybody they picked in rounds 1-32. With the extra Mesa team, they've got more spots.