craig

https://theathletic.com/2710322/2021/07 ... in-heaven/ For pay, but nice article.

https://theathletic.com/2710322/2021/07/16/what-the-cubs-are-getting-in-jordan-wicks-and-their-2021-mlb-draft-class-its-a-match-made-in-heaven/ For pay, but nice article. First news I've heart on Hambley signing. So, Hambley and Rodriquez would be two of those "sign at least three". Olivo, Avitia, and Cunningham are the other three HS picks. I don't expect a change, but I'd not be stunned if Ziehl ended up changing his mind. But who knows.

Nice! That was quick.

Thanks for Chavers note. Nice. Question: How does the 180-player limit work? 1. Does it include guys who are injured? 2. And does it include guys who are signed but who aren't actually playing in box-score games? In other words, if Gray signs but isn't going to pitch this summer anyway, does he still count against the 180? Or, if he both signs and works out on the backfields, or in the pitch-lab, but does NOT actually pitch in a box-score game, does he still count? In view of drafting Banks at #12 only to have him announce within hours that he's not signing, I'm kinda wondering whether the 180-man limit in any way precludes the Cubs from even wanting to sign all 20 picks? Is there just not even room to sign all those Day 3 picks, so they didn't actually want to sign him anyway? Or did they kinda screw up, and think he might be signable when they probably coulda/shoulda known better?

6 of the 7 HS picks today by the Cubs only turned 18 at the end of April or later. A lot of young guys. Gray is also a young 18. Lots changed, with Katrowitz, 20 rounds instead of 40, and no Eugene. In past, they usually signed all or almost all of their top-20 picks; but they also never drafted 7 HS'ers in the 11-20 window. Will be curious to see how many of the 3rd-day HS guys they're able to sign; how many of them as $125K guys; and how many are above $125K guys. With all the pitch-lab stuff, I'd love to have a shot to see the system work with the HS pitchers.

https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-2021-draft-day-2-coverage Jordan Bastain article. I love it, because included for each of yesterday's picks are comments from Kantrovicz. -Kantrovicz is hyperbolic gushy about everybody, so I'm not sure how to filter or to differentiate somebody he's seeing as a $10K senior sign, from somebody they really love. -Still, I love hearing what they think they saw and why they valued the guys they did. My general view is that decision-maker people aren't dumb. So, I always love to hear some of the reasoning behind choices they make, most especially in the cases where those decisions may seem unexpected. Why did they do that? etc. Watkins:

toonster, thanks for notes on Triantos. I know at least one of the scouting reports I saw thought he might be 2B-capable. I'm not scout enough to know either way. But I admit I do recall assumptions that guys would have to move, who never did. Baez was perceived as a stocky guy who'd have to move off of SS; only that wasn't true. My understanding is the same was thought for Addison Russell, who ended up being one of the best defensive SS's I've ever seen. I'm not in the least suggestion Triantos will ever play SS; just that it's sometimes hard to tell what a guy might be able to do, and perhaps he'll be fine at 2B or 3B. I almost wonder if the Cubs don't assume as much? If they perceived Triantos as limited to 3B/LF, would they have spent a 2nd round pick perhaps with superslot cash for him? More likely to want him a lot *if* they hypothetically thought that 2B was within his scope. Each of us likes picks for whatever reasons. But I admit I don't really have "favorite" for Opitz, for example, who is purely a an organizational roster-filler. We are all prospects and minor-league watchers, but I can't get very fired up about a guy whose upside is to catch for our AA team. Or for Spence as contact-hitting utility guy. The "favorites" for me would certainly be the guys I perceive as having the best chances to become major leaguers who I might like having pitch or hit. So yeah, I'm pretty much focused on the first three picks who have the big-league possibilities and have the chance to be good. I like Spence; he might perhaps hit enough to be a capable-hitting contact-hitter 2b or utility guy. I like Chavers and think he's got a chance to be a good-hitting platoon guy. I kinda like Watkins, because any lefty with his existing velocity and breaking ball has a shot to become a valuable relief guy; if the pitch lab helped him add some velocity, and he's already got a good breaking pitch, why couldn't he be a good major-leaguer? And I admit I'm curious about Riley Martin; if pitch-lab added some velocity, who knows what he might become? To be K'ing 2 guys per inning even in D2 isn't easy, so I'm curious to see whether given some time in the system if he might not have big-league possibilities.

Franklin hit .263 and .274 BA in his two sample-size non-Covid seasons. Over 1/3 of his AB's this season were K's. Huge red flags for me. Guys who are super-K even against college pitching, hard to imagine making enough contact to be useful in the majors. Mark me as a huge doubter. One of the reports also noted that he's a down-ball guy, which would suggest he might get exposed even worse by big-league pitchers. Yet oddly many of the scouting media still had him as a top 70 prospect despite all that. I don't get it, actually. I assume those guys are smart and logical, so must see some remediation possible? I admit I'd not blow much if any superslot on a guy who K's >1/3 of his AB even versus college pitchers, though.

toonster or anybody else who might know, (I thought of you as a Virginia expert!), do you know if Triantos's Fairfax school was in the biggest-school level in Virginia? Or would a Fairfax high school with 2-3000 students be playing at a second level, even in the playoffs? I'm wondering whether his season stats and stuff are partly built on having a lot of smaller weaker schools on his schedule? Or if even in the state playoffs, he still wasn't facing the best and fastest pitching? Or was he probably facing pretty good competition for most of his game, and if not always in the regular season, at least yes in the playoffs? I saw an article after the state championship game, in which he hit a HR and was the winning pitcher 2-1, that the opposing coach said he was the best player in Virginia. So I'm trying to process whether that's a 2nd-tier coach who hasn't seen the best? Or whether that's a coach from a top-level school who's seen plenty of Virginia's best kids over the years, but still sees Triantos as being as good as Virginia produces? If that makes sense?

He also probably knows all the best spots for stone skippin' and muddin'. He's an A-student Chemistry/Biology major, and was his conference's baseball student-athlete of the year. Maybe he and Breslow can hang out, and then Breslow can hire him as a coach if his pitching career washes out?

Thanks, Cal, I'd wondered about that, and how they see using him. I'd almost kinda hoped they envisioned a good-hitting outfielder who'd grow into power... Seems like a fun project for the development guys to get their hands on....

I know nothing, so have no option other than to trust scouting reports. 9HR, 3.7 ERA, mostly low-90's velocity while pitching only once a week fully rested, mediocre breaking ball, none of those seem very exciting or 1st-roundish at first glance. Yet pretty much all of the media scouting things had him as a first rounder, usually ranking him ahead of 22 and projecting him ahead of the Cubs. Kantrovitz had him top-10. So I'm willing to kinda optimistically hope that those media scouts, and the Cubs and Kantrovitz, see and project more wisely. Optimist me: 1. Pitch lab has helped guys with velocity, and with breaking pitches. The two areas where Wicks needs help. 2. Pitch lab has shown limited success in conjuring up changeups for guys who didn't already have one; and limited success in enabling command for guys who didn't have it to start with. Fortunately, those two aspects somewhat beyond the reach of pitch lab seem to be the two qualities that Wicks already has. Other optimistic thoughts: 1. Reference to deception and "invisiball" are appealing. 2. Smart guys who have command/control to begin with are often the guys most able to pitch-lab improve to even better stuff. 3. There was some favorable reference to spin rates and stuff, including on fastball. 4. There was a reference to NOT using the up-fastball much in college. Electing to apply a fastball that you already have and can already locate up in the zone might perhaps be the easiest new tool to add to a guy's attack plan?

Optimistic for Manny Rodriguez.

Alfonso Rivas 3/6 over the Iowa DH. He's doing decent. If the Cubs make any trades, it's possible he might be a guy who could get called up in August. If he can stay healthy and have a good July...

Herz/Hearn, 3 attempted SB 2 CS. Manual Rodriguez promoted up to Iowa. Hoerner didn't play. Hope he's OK.

Thanks for the clips from Estrada. Helpful. I like your perspective, Cal, that really he's had one injury that didn't get resolved successfully initially. Not sure he's any more likely to suffer another than any other post-surg guy. As you say, throwing some innings and getting pitches in is attractive for his development regardless of eventual role. But I admit I am pretty interested in him particularly as a starter, because I have the perception (possibly unjustified) that he's got a shot to be a strike-thrower. In a system packed with wildmen, I like the concept of some rotation guys who can throw strikes. So Estrada and Gallardo have a lot of interest to me for that reason.

I don't have record of wild pitches. But just for walks and HBP that create baserunners, Sanders has 29 wild things in 41 innings, to go with 6 HR's. Pretty bad-looking line thus far this season. Disappointing season for him.

think he had a 2-inning outing previously. My recall, and his season stats show 5 IP in 4 games prior to today which confirms. It would be curious to see whether they'd stretch him out and start him at all? Or if he's strictly a relief guy?

If the milb box-score is correct, Jeremiah Estrada is getting stretched out, coming back for his 3rd inning. 5K in his two perfect innings, but now walks the first guy in inning 3. Would be fun if he'd emerge as a real prospect.

Good game for Bain. Still pretty wild. 6 wild things (3BB, 2HBP, 1 WP) in his 6 innings. Will be interesting to see whether his control improves somewhat as he piles up innings over the season. Herz also back to his no-hit style. Wild again, 6 wild things in 5 innings (4BB, 1WP, balk). Bigge can't get through his debut inning, gives up 3 runs in 0.2.

Gallardo question. Does anybody have current info on what kind of velocity he's got? CubsWin, you've got the milb TV capacity, yes? Do you or anybody else with that have any scoop for us? My recall is that pre-Covid, he was kind of an 88-91 type guy, kinda Mills-type velocity. I'm thinking this spring from a Twitter video, or maybe it was from Az Phil, there was reference to one pitch that touched 95 or 96, perhaps? Not sure what if anything that might mean. 1. A guy can rear back and let it rip for the speed gun, with no control and nothing resembling the type of throws he makes in actual games when trying to get outs. 2. Everybody has some fluke velocity pitches. Anybody with median 90-91 velocity probably throws a 96 at least once. 3. Guys who have been kind of building with plenty of rest for 18 months sometimes are a lot stronger than a guy is after 30 pitches in a game, or after a month of pitching rotation work as Gallardo has now done. June pitching after 6-7 starts may not match the max-velocity displayed back in April. So, I guess I'm just trying to ask what he's got velocity-wise now, a month into the season? Is he a guy who's routinely pitching 90-93, and can pop a 94-95 when he lets it rip? Or more typically in the 88-92 range, with the spot 94? Kind of in the Arrieta range, maybe a bit faster than Mills, a little slower than Trevor Williams? Or is he perhaps pretty regularly working fastballs in the 91-94 range, and a 95-96 will show up almost every game? I realize of course that he's still only 19 and won't turn 20 till late in season. So it's possible that he's not at his career-max yet anyway. But just trying to figure whether he's a below-average-velo guy who'll need to be an artist and to develop some really special offspeed pitches? Or if his fastball is already perfectly average, and actually has a chance to be somewhat faster than the normal big-league rotation fastball. Plus with more control?

I don't think it matters that much for a pitcher, particularly an off-speed pitcher. For power pitchers, I think a guy might maybe get away with living on fastball against weaker hitters, and be more content living off the fastball instead of working on offspeed stuff he'll need in majors. But for an offspeed guy, I assume Herz is already mixing his pitches and practicing all of them, regardless of level. The plate's the same size and distance in Myrtle and South Bend. Herz knows, sees, and feels when his curve is doing what he wants it to do and is going where he wants to throw it. So in terms of developing his ability to throw the pitches consistently, I doubt A- versus A+ vs AA makes much difference for Herz developmentally. Tom, I did see what you saw, though. I think all of the 4-5 K's in the video from last night were breaking balls. One was almost certainly a bad pitch, a high loopy pitch that kinda curved over the top of the zone and was taken as strike 3 on a bad call by the ump. Pretty sure Herz didn't want it to do what it did, and knows he got away with a bad pitch and a bad call. Others were chase breakers. I'm curious what Herz is doing earlier in counts? It's great to throw chase breaking balls and get chase K's, that's how most big-league K's work, too. But, you can't get chase-K's until you've gotten two strikes. I assume he's throwing a lot of fastballs for strikes to set up the chase K's, without either missing a lot and walking guys, and without getting his fastball whacked earlier in the count. The inability of low-minors guys to hit fastballs is one reason why it helps to move a breaking-ball winner up, though? So maybe promotion will be pretty helpful for him? Guys without great fastballs may be unafraid to throw fastballs for strikes, maybe fat strikes, to set up their chase K's. But then when they reach the majors, they're scared to throw the fastball in the zone, and have a harder time getting to 2-strike counts. For example, a guy gets to a 1-2 count in the minors and throws a chase curve or two and gets the K'. Maybe in the majors the same guys instead gets to 2-1 counts, and throws the same two chase curves, but what was a minor-league K becomes a big-league walk. For me, I would NOT promote Herz for a while, because doing so might disrupt a good groove, and might confuse cause-and-effect. Most likely he's stacked some good games, but hot doesn't always stay hot. Probably if you give him 6 more starts at Myrtle, he's going to dip off of the great wave he's on now, and things won't go quite so great. We'll know it's him, not the level of competition, if his performance dips somewhat. But if they promote, and he has some wilder games, then the tendency might be to think it's because of the better batters, when it may be just coincidence.

Interesting opportunity for Deppermann to get a start.

Wow. Glad he's not injured! :):)

I'm largely saying that neither you nor I nor Dorey know how he'll play out. He may have average or better control, and become a star starter. He may settle in as a star reliever. His potential ceiling is very high. Or he may have enough control inconsistencies that he's never a star in either role. Who knows? I don't, neither do you. Lots to hope on, little to be certain about. The limited analogy to Samardz was simply two guys with great arms and high ceilings entering the pros, neither with settled and polished control of their offspeed. In neither case could you know after 30 innings in A-ball how well or how quickly their offspeed usage would eventually shake out, or whether they would end in rotation or relief.