craig

Rodriguez and Garcia both terrific, again, in DSL. Both are lefties, listing at 6'1" and 6'2", 18 and 17. Garcia was a $150K guy who supposedly added a couple inches and some pounds, and added 5mph. May still be a soft-toss guy, the BA writeup mentioned him having touched 92. Rodriguez, Garcia, and Cruz have been pretty terrific, and Marquez good too. Would be so great to have some of these Latin pitchers develop into serious prospects. I keep assuming Rodriguez or Cruz are bound to get lit up one of these days, how consistent can any 18-year-old be, but they just keep putting up good game after good game. Very fun.

I imagine every pitcher has some deviation. If Lange was 90-92 and gets there most games, I have to assume he'd have a fluke 93 or 94 once in a while. Who cares. If 90-92 is what he pitches with on a good night, that's obviously below-average. Better have very good movement and excellent location to win with below-average velocity. That game got his ERA below 4, so that's good.

Swarmer strictly limits any runs against to HR's! Gives up his second. South bend messes up my all-levels-get-shut-out by scoring 2 in the 9th. Myrtle comes through with a shutout, losing 1-0.

Swarmer with 1HR and otherwise good again through 4. Passantino with 2 HR and otherwise good for 7. Heh heh, Ademan broke up the extra-inning no-hitter to get that 1-0 win. But during middle-or-late innings, all of the full-season teams are getting shutout. That would be kinda uncommon if the Cubs and all four full-season teams could all get shutout on the same day!

90-92 fastball for Lange, on a good day, isn't super inspiring. I've been surprised that after all the curveball buzz, that he hasn't K'd more guys. K-rate hasn't been bad, or anything, but given how few A-ballers can hit average curves, much less excellent ones, I'd have figured he'd have a few more 9K/6IP games on days when curve was sharp.

thanks, cal. And anything over $10K, counts. I'd guess the $683 would get spent out on a dozen $50K type guys or something like that, more or less? Or perhaps already has? But, I could also imagine the Cubs feeling like they had scouted and wanted Serrano, and had a good relationship; **if** their info is at all indicative that the Mexican thing might get resolved, I could see them maybe wanting to hold $300K (or more) and still resign Serrano. It occurs to me that the new fixed-cap-without-penalty-box probably isn't that optimal for a lot of the guys who used to be picking up $300K deals. There were always a handful of penalty teams with a bunch of millions who were looking to sign a dozen $300K guys each. But now with nobody capped to $300, I wonder if most teams will focus on a handful of big tickets, and other guys will be looking at ≤$100K deals?

You guys have probably already detailed this, but have the Cubs already spent this, and everything else? Or based on your tracking of the big-ticket spendings, does this $300K plus some other unspent $$ perhaps give the Cubs some discretionary cash to still get some guy(s), whether serrano himself or somebody else? Also, what has been the timing on all of this? I assume BA is reporting it now, but mlb and the Cubs knew about this before July, so that the Cubs had already factored the $300K into signings they have already made?

18-year-old Cruz with another excellent ASL game, 5-1-0-1-6

Have you guys gotten any updated scouting info on Keegan Thompson? His outing drops his AA and composite season ERA's below 3. Over his last 8 starts, 5 have been shutout outings. 5 earned runs spread out over 8 starts is pretty good work. Thompson, Rucker, and Swarmer have been in a pretty outstanding collective groove.

Keegan T might also fall in that not-much-stuff but has been competitive in AA. 2.91 over last 10 starts, 3.03 at AA, 3.13 on season. Think he's been making some adjustments in how he works. Seemed to come out as a throw-strikes/challenge guy (13 walks in 68 Myrtle innings). But at Tenn, he's ~ doubled his walk rate (16 walks in 39 innings), while reducing the HR's. May be coincidence. But I wonder if he's taken a more Lester/Quintana approach, where you'd rather nibble and walk a guy than give him a fat pitch on 3-1? Obviously he's got to really locate, because his stuff seems average or below-average. But results have been good, and maybe there is still improvement ahead for him?

Thanks, cal, those are all really good points. Agree on all. Rucker has a 2.72 ERA over last 10 starts. Had a poor April, but from May on, his ERA is a hair under 3.0. Not sure if his stuff could ever translate to the majors, he's got the two hardest steps left (PCL is a tough step, and the step to the majors is biggest of all.) Totally possible that he's just kind of like Farrell, a blah-stuff guy who depends on throwing strikes to bad hitters. Think sometimes those guys can get killed in the majors; in minors can get away with throwing not-great fastballs for strikes, and not getting killed because the hitters are bad. (Look at the collection of bad hitters Tennessee has...) But then in majors some of those fastball strikes are getting smoked, so you nibble more, and instead of working 1-2 counts and getting guys to chase on minor-league curve, you're working 2-1 counts and big-league hitters don't chase so now you're 3-1, etc.. But it would be nice if a control guy like Rucker was able to be decent as a 6th/7th starter, so you don't need to be turning to Tseng or Farrell when you've got a spot start. Same for Swarmer. 2.91 ERA on the year, 1.1 WHIP, 114K/17BB is pretty good. 3.27 over last 10 starts at Tennessee, 2.63 over last 7 starts, 37K/3BB over last 6 starts (34.2 IP). Those are some pretty nice numbers. (obviously chosen subsequent to his last lousy game.) Again, not sure if his stuff or effectiveness will carry up very well. But would sure be fun to have some rotation options next July. Think a lot of the big-league rotation has been worked pretty heavily. Would be nice to have an Iowa option, and give a guy like Lester All Star break off, then skip a start after, so that he could kinda get a two-week break to refresh his arm. Or same for Quintana. I'm not asking for top prospects here. Just some guys who, given the advantage of being unfamiliar to opposing hitters, could give 4-5 competitive innings and it wasn't a Farrell-like fillin.

7th round overslot Artis is finally back tonight. Two walks and two runs thus far, still 0-3 on the season.

When did Estrada have TJ?

I've never read "plus raw power" in the future for Brennen Davis in any scouting report. He is super athletic and 6'4", but he's a skinny dude. He's listed at 175 lbs. right now. He might develop power down the road, but I'd rather he just focus on making contact. I know I saw that in one of the draft reports, too. Obviously it's projection, a "possible" thing. But there are lots of guys who fill out and become a lot stronger and physically more mature by age 23 than what they were at 18. There aren't that many 175-pound 6'4" guys at age 23. So it's not inconceivable that he'll grow into significantly more batting-practice power over the next few years. Not sure it's "probable" that he'll grow into excellent real-game power, but it isn't impossible. (Well, I am sure: it isn't "probable", even if it is variably possible to have good or decent power.) Obviously the Cubs spend a 2nd-round pick assuming he's going to grow into more than LaStella or Hendricks/Quintana power. Like pretty much everything else with his game, something to track over time.

Believe this was first game Davis has played in the field.

I'd say no, although I don't care and view the "breakout" question and "new skills" as irrelevant. Uncommon for any player to turn up with "NEW" skills. Usually some kind of continuum. Reduce your errors; get somewhat stronger with somewhat more power; mature some and get somewhat faster; get your release point somewhat more consistent and add some velocity consistency with breaking ball. Sometimes there is a "new skill", I guess; a pitcher tinkers and suddenly finds a new grip, so suddenly adds a splitter or a cutter or a sharper slider, and it changes everything abruptly. But for most guys, it's a developmental continuum, and that appears to be Marquez too. Or, perhaps as Cubswin notes, the fastball velocity is a "new skill" and a breakout. Lefties who throw 89-93, those are abundant, and only occasionally good. But lefties who consistently throw mid-90's and touch upper 90's, those are uncommon. Is that a "new skill"? One could say yes; or one could argue that's natural development for a tall maturing teenager. Still, the reported velocity jump is pretty dramatic. Every year the Cubs have dozens of young pitchers; every year baseball signs batches of internationals, every year the draft selects hundreds of tall HS pitchers. For every teenager we add, we hope a bunch more velocity will come with time and development. But very few guys actually do end up adding 5mph or end up throwing mid-to-upper 90's. He's in short-season with only 26 innings, 3 HR (not good), and a fair number of hits allowed. Good number on a healthy developmental trajectory. But want to see him continue to develop and excel in full-season, over more extended 70+ innings. If he does, we'll maybe say "Nothing breakout, I've been talking about him for several years, this is just an extension of what I've seen coming all along." "Perceived CEILING" is pretty high, higher than BOR. Mid-upper 90's, decent control. There are years to go to sharpen his breaking ball, develop his change, develop his cutter, and improve his location and command. The perceived "ceiling" is that he could hypothetically do all of those things, and perhaps end up being faster version of prime Quintana. Why not, that's "ceiling". Is it likely, of course not; but at age 19, which of us can know the future? The ceiling is excellent, *IF* the developmental continuum keeps rolling over the next handful of years. One can always look smart by saying "BOR", because very few 19-year-olds ever develop beyond that. But some do, and it can change the trajectory of a franchise. Odds are slim with Brailyn, because having the command and movement and offspeed stuff is just rare. But it's possible, and I'm going to hope for a while until/unless there is evidence to the contrary.

Brennan Davis back in the lineup, DH, leads off with K. Cole doubles in the first.

Herron 3-4. OBP up to .457, although not as good as Cole at .500 and Davis at .600. :) 2K in his 9 games. Weber 0-4 1K, his first game without multi-K.

Davis got taken out around the 7th inning.

Nice

Other than the stats, I think this is the only scouting info that was posted in the draft thread re Mort. There was also a note that he is "ultra-competitive". Sometimes average stuff with excellent control can do OK. And I guess it's not inconceivable that a kid can add a little bit after age 20, or upon conversion to relief. Think there's also a huge difference between guys who have 3-4 pitches but can't locate more than 1-2 if that and not even consistently, versus control/command guys who have 3-4 pitches and can locate them all. Not likely for Mort, but would love to see him do well. Kinda love the underdog story.

Mort with a good line, 4K/3IP, single and a walk. Tiny sample, but 8K/1BB/7IP, and a 5.0 GO/AO ratio in his three outings. Had really good numbers as a 20-year-old junior (8:1 K/BB), so he's still quite young. I don't recall reading much if any scouting info on him in draft threat. Is his fastball super-slow, awful? Or just mediocre? He's only 6'1", so probably not any velocity projection left for him. Probably as with all the average-if-that velocity guys from last year Abbott/Thompson/Uelman/Lange, Mort will presumably need to be proving it at every step. But it's kind of fun to track a young pitcher until at least he does hit the wall. Speaking of which, not-so-young pitcher Lacy had his first bad, might-he-be-hitting-his-wall game last night.

Man, what an exciting start. I know, premature and everything, but sometimes if you've got it you've got it. Draft thread, there were some questions about wisdom of the two HS kids, were they overdrafts, how low is the success rate with HS hitters, why didn't they shoot for higher ceiling, disappointment that they overslotted as far as they did for Cole at the expense of perhaps signing Parker, etc.. But man, if Roederer proves to be the real thing and has reasonable HR power physically, and Nico proves to be legit too, I don't care what happens with the other 30 guys they signed. **IF** you hit on Cole and Nico, any other value is just frosting.

Come on, it's not that bad. No, it is. It's that bad. 17 ABs, 12 Ks, 1 hit. A single. Walker improved to only 2 K's last night.

I'd been thinking exactly the same thing after checking box score and before popping over here. He's added a couple more K's in his 2nd and 3rd AB as well. 10K's in 14 AB, for the line-drive contact hitter that got full slot.