craig

I don't follow the college game that much, so maybe he was a control artist in college. I tend to think minor-league results are more predictive of big-league profile. As a pro, I think Jensen's control is a legit issue to consider and wonder about. It's only 29.2 innings, 12 of them in 2019. But in 29.2 innings, he's got 20 walks and 6 HB. So, putting 26 guys on base via wildness in 29.2 innings, that's ~8 guys per 9IP. That's wild. This season it's been better, he's put 10 guys on in 17.2 IP, so that's basically 5 guys per 9IP. But even on his career-best outing yesterday, he still created 3 wildness baserunners in 5 IP. 1. Walks and HBP are one quantifiable measure of wildness. That's just one collection of data points. 2. Observation and qualitative scouting is another. Cal noted that he's been 95% fastball in his effective starts. CubsWin distinguished control from command. Draft-scouts were mixed on his control. AzPhil has observed control issues. Seems pretty widespread that there are observational uncertainties about his command and control. 3. His 5 starts have been inconsistent. Three have been excellent. Starts 2,3,5 combine for 15K/2BB/4H/13IP. Those are really nice numbers. Other two games were bad, 4BB/3HR/3.2IP. Inconsistency between good and bad starts almost certainly points to inconsistent control, at best. Or perhaps to inconsistent usage of pitches that lack control? Cal suggested 95% fastball in the good games? Maybe the bad games he threw more curves, without control, and hung a few and suffered accordingly? If you can't control it, hanging a few curves and sliders is perhaps where the HR's come? Again, I'm not dismissing his potential. I'm just assuming that where his career goes depends on where his control and command go. If 2 starts out of 5 he's got no curveball, it might be bad. But I'm sure he was amped for his opening start, and since then had had only one bad game in four outings. One bad outing this early stands out, but maybe he'll be stacking good ones consistently from here? He's got the whole summer, and seasons ahead, to figure things out, to improve his control, to determine what works, or to figure out how to still compete on days when curve or slider isn't sharp. That's what the minors are for. Hopefully he'll start stacking good starts with increasing repetition and consistency. No purpose in rushing it. Samardzija had the strong arm, but did NOT have consistent minor-league success for years. 6 seasons in the minors, 1.7 K/BB, only 6.5K/9, 4.4 ERA. We'd always hear he was working on something, split, curve, slider, or change, but for years it didn't click and I was a skeptic. But he eventually figured it out, and became a high-K major leaguer. Lot of searching and improvising to find what worked for him, and to increase his consistency. Jensen has lots of time to figure it out.

Thanks, that's helpful. Obviously consistent control will be a while coming, *IF* it ever does. But it sure would seem that he's got the stuff, *if* he can locate it relatively often. Twenty years ago, people liked "big, strong" starters, and were hesitant to project a shorter slimmer guy for rotation, back when they wanted starters to give 7 innings or maybe even more on good days, and to still get 6 on average days. And they thought short/slim guys would tire with that workload. But now in the twice-through-the-order 5-innings-is-just-fine era, I wonder if there is less hesitancy about a smaller guy being a rotation weapon? The twice-through mindset may help Jensen stay in rotation.

Yeah, making me nervous. Given that he'd been stretched out enough to go 4 innings in his previous start, it made me nervous when he got pulled mid-inning last game at only 3.2.

Jensen can't finish the first. Scattered 3 walks and a HR in his 0.2, pulled at 34 pitches.

Thanks for mentioning that. Yeah, he's been stacking good outings after his first one or two.

Great to have a strong night for Jensen. Only 16 balls in five innings. Love it. Reid another kinda good night, 3K/2IP. Myrtle eventually loses, but lots of hits.

Thanks, cal, at two levels. Didn't realize that Phil updated that list, relative to spring training type lists. Helpful resource for future, thanks for the link! Nice news that Clarke, Burgmann, Bigge, and Schlaffer all list as being healthy. Schlaffer was a guy I'm very interested in. Interesting, and disappointing I guess, that Phil lists him as a reliever.

Thanks Greg. Helpful to know. Interesting that they're hoping McAvene can recover without surgery. Of course, often that means you try it for a coule of months, hope it works, but then do the surgery later. If so, that might mean next year lost too, so that would be three straight years with no pitching. Hopefully the guy bounces back eventually. I'd just assumed Thompson was serious and would be a surgery guy. *IF* he's actually back in a month, and able to get into pitching shape by July, he could still get some box-score action this summer.

Reid 4K-1hit 1.1 IP. 12K in 6.2IP. Was surprised he made a full-season roster. No pro experience, had only 48 innings of college relief work at a small-college NAIA level, and it seems like most of our A-ball pitchers are older than Reid at 22. Might be a guy to keep an eye on. His college coach now works for the Cubs, I think.

I've probably missed this, but have you guys tracked down a bunch of the pitchers? Braylin: came in out of shape; had Covid, either before or after he came; want to bring him along slowly given his complex delivery and control challenges, and probably given the stress that his high velocity probably causes. So no necessary long-term health/arm concerns. Franklin: Had an injury of some sort. Has been throwing again? No surgery or anything major. Was fine as of last fall, because Dorey was still free to talk enthusiastically about him back in January. Expectation is that he's had a setback, but with no necessary long-term issues? McAvene: 60-Day DL, per AZ Phil. Anybody know why, or if it will be a surgery or not? Cruz and Patterson are surgeries, we know that. Clark? Bigge? Brugman? Tyler Schlafer?

Thanks! I'll want to remember that for every low-cash signing. Always possible....

Agree, unfortunately the bonus is the best indicator or prospect-hood. When is the last time the Cubs have signed a guy for ≤$50K who's ended up becoming a serious prospect? Probably somebody I'm forgetting, I'm not sure how much Manuel Rodriguez got, for example. A generation ago Juan Cruz in the 90's was a low-price sign? But usually when a guy signs for a teensy bonus, there's reason.

12/22 for Howard, 10/16 for Nwogu.

Tough start to the night. Gallardo gets a start, but lasts only one inning and fills the stats line with 2 walks, 3 hits including a HR, and 3 runs. Through three innings, Strumpt has already racked up 3 errors.

Do we have any scouting info on Peyton Remy? Nice opening line.

That's a LOT of missing names. I wonder how many are injured, versus slow ramp-up, versus just not considered developmentally ready for full-season ball? It may be that with the renewed emphasis on velocity, that injuries will proliferate accordingly? Or I wonder if having guys hands-on in camp, that pitch-lab guys who are reconfiguring some of their pitches, that they've decided extra time with coaches in camp is developmentally more valuable than facing full-season batters? Would be a good question for Dorey or Cubs exec on case by case:

Thanks. Sanders had a good season two summers back, but he's always been super wild. Will be interesting to see how his command and control hold up.

Assuming there is just camp ball, instrux, but no Az League games this summer, we'll need to count on Az Phil to give us some notes on the developmental guys. Ben Rodriguez, Montero, DJ, Schlafer, we're not going to get any box-score games for those guys. Pretty much depending on instrux-type feedback from Az Phil to get any buzz on those guys.

I heard them mention a 99 for Megill.

The "middle-of-the-order bat, with potential power" line was interesting. I've thought of him as a potential pure hitter who hopefully has enough power to be OK. Or whose HR/doubles production might be more decent than his BP-power might anticipate, just because he hits the ball square more often than guys with light-tower BP power who rarely get to that in games. But to have one or two of Law's scouting friends say they think he might have middle-of-the-order power, based on some instrux BP and a couple of games, suggests that maybe even his raw BP power potential looks decent.

I'm glad to hear some scouting-community consensus that Pinango has a chance to be good. I infer that based on camp or video glimpses, or just on 2nd-hand from Cubs personnel or from scouts, that media people perceive Pinango to have some potential to hit with some adequate power. Given how hard hitting is, I'll take any possibility of a true-blue hitter that we can find, if he's got at least a chance to be OK power-wise.

Dorey reported that he's gotten stronger. Can't hit HR without some strength, but can't hit HR's without hitting the ball, either. Obviously he'll need to hit more than the 3HR he hit at South Bend in 2019. They're all snowflakes, I get that. But I wonder if Bote doesn't give some analogy? In his age 21-22-23 seasons in the minors, he hit 4, 6, and 7 HR. Now we know he's got plenty of power.

I just listened during lunch to your Herz interview. Hadn't seen it previously. That was really good. Thanks! Are you going to post the Basham interview?

Thanks, I'll look forward to the article. *I assume the trick for him, really, is going to be consistent-enough ability to repeat delivery and locate strikes. *A lot of the media scouting, I think, tends to instinctively project hard-throwing power guys with some sharp stuff, but with control challenges, as ultimately becoming bullpen guys. There is good reason for that, I totally get it. *But I'd like to hope that some of the Cubs bigger arms will be able to cobble together enough control/command/consistency to become 150-inning starting pitchers, not all 60-inning relievers. Brailyn, Jensen, McAvene, Riley Thompson, Alzolay too, all of those good-arm guys have some control questions, and I think media rankings tend to profile most, perhaps all of them, kinda in the bullpen direction. Or at least have enough doubts about their capacity to throw rotation strikes to downgrade their rankings accordingly. Clarke has also been kinda projected as relief, since that's what he did in college, and since pre-Covid was only recognized as being a 2-pitch guy. Other than the Abbott/Keegan types, Kohl Franklin and Gallardo seem to be the only guys who are consistently projected as as starter profiles, and obviously Gallardo is projected as lacking the power velo or spins to project as a high-end guy. My interest for now would be primarily in pitchers. Pitchers can do stuff in pitch-lab through Covid, and work on specific pitches. Not sure what hitters can actually say they've been working on, without live pitching to have faced. I'd be interested in: 1. Matt Dorey, and then ask him mostly about guys outside of the more talked-about top-10. IN one of his radio interviews, Dorey was very willing to talk about specific players, if only the interviewer asked; but naturally the interviewer rarely went outside the top ten. So I'd love to hear his comments on McAvene, Clarke, Burgmann, Cam Sanders, Ethan Roberts, Gallardo, Herz, Schlaffer, Estrada, Cruz, Gallardo, Ben Rodriguez, Manny Rodriguez. The other more vague question I'd be interested in asking him is, "My readers have an understanding of how pitch-lab resources can help to optimize arm slot, grip, spin, and pitch shape. But can you explain how you and the pitch-lab can help guys whose stuff and spin is excellent when they are on, but where control and consistency is really the bigger challenge?" 2. Most of those I'd be interested in contacts. But I imagine some of those might be easier to have intereviews with guys who have pitches a little bit more. So some of the more college-y guys like Clarke, Burgmann, Sanders, and Roberts. 3. Schlaffer I think would be an interesting one. Being a Chicago-area kid, I'd think he might be a fun and interesting interview and article. Longenhagen referred to him as having "great arm speed", and being lanky and projectable, but with a kinda violent delivery back in HS, and already getting up to mid-90's just before the draft, and 93-95 the one inning in summer that Eric saw him. I think he'd be a really interesting guy to talk to. "How much good muscle do you think you've added since HS?" "there were reports of some mid-90's back in draft spring/summer; is that true? If so, are you able to do that a little more consistently, or with better control now? Or maybe you've added a little bit more since then?" "There were reports that you had maybe some violence in your delivery back in your draft spring/summer. Have you and the Cubs modified your delivery very much over the last 18 months, and if so how has that maybe helped your control or the movement on your pitches?" Those might be some of the types of questions I'd be curious about." 4. I'm quite curious about Cam Sanders. He seems kinda Maples-esque in being on the far-extreme of wild. As a college sophomore, he walked 50 guys in 44 innings. He had a 2.94 ERA at South Bend, really good. At South Bend in 19, his BB/9 was 4.72, bad by any standards, but his first time under 5.7 BB/9 at any level. He also had piles of wild pitches and hit batters, so even with the walk reduction, he's still pretty obviously on the extreme control-challenged end of the wildman spectrum. He had some flukey profile at South Bend, the high walks and surprisingly quite a few HR's, and not all that many K's either, but low hits allowed. Anyway, I get the sense that he's got some good velo and excellent stuff, I'm guessing a lot of natural movement on his fastball probably accounts for why throwing strikes is so hard for him, but also why hard contact is kinda hard against him, too. Anyway, I'd love to have an interview with him. "Obviously you've got some big-league stuff and movement. Are there things you and the pitch lab have done to try to increase your consistency? Any little cues or triggers to keep your delivery locked in? Do you throw both 4-seam and 2-seam fastball? If so, how much velocity difference do they have? Do you find one a little easier to control?" I guess I'm really interested in him and McAvene because they entered the system on the variably wild end, Cam particularly. We all get that pitch lab stuff can help adjust grips and spins and stuff. But I'm not sure I get how much, or how, it can developmentally or mechanically help to reduce wildness. So anybody who might be able to speak into that part of the developmental equation, I think would be fun.

Hey, that's cool! I hadn't realized that either! Very nice. I've enjoyed your articles and insights from coaches and players. Nice. I'm guessing you maybe talked about McAvene with Basham? Thanks for info here. Heh heh, I was hoping to get some more insights on specific guys! Maybe articles to be written later? :):):). Any other scoop on McAvene you might want to share? Did you get any insights from him on Clarke? He had some really nice numbers in brief Eugene debut, but with a glimpse of a perhaps very different profile. I've gotten the sense that Dorey thinks Clarke has a chance to be good, but scouting comments are rare and may not reflect what he throws now. Pre-draft, pretty much large man with a curve. But an update on what he is throwing now would be interesting. Is he a big curve, slow curve, spike curve, or several variants? Fastball 2 seam, 4-seam, or both? An additional pitch he's added to support starting-rotation profile? I just don't know much. Or whether he's strictly a reliever, or has perhaps the control to be a rotation candidate? And then there's the never mention 5th-rounder Burgmann. Longenhagen had him top-40 last June, ahead of guys like Steele, Clarke, Herz, and Little. Made reference to him throwing 95 and having touched 97. I suspect some of Longenhagen's observations were impacted by seeing some guys last spring; and perhaps not having seen others. (So maybe he saw Burgmann and liked what he saw; but didn't actually see Herz or Clarke throw?).